저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
Vijay Kedia는 SMILE 프레임(소형·경영진 경험·야망·시장잠재력)으로 장기 성장주를 고르는 방식을 설명한다. 2025년 소형주 대폭락 이후 2026년은 시장이 바닥을 쳤지만 신고가를 빨리 갱신하지 않는 조정(consolidation) 국면일 것으로 본다. 다만 지수 횡보 속에서도 개별 기회는 존재하며, 현금을 보유하고 적기에 행동하는 '왜가리' 전략을 권한다. 2008 이후 횡보기에도 개별주는 크게 올랐던 사례를 근거로 든다.
다듬은 글
OK. Yes. So, you're known for spotting long-term stories at very early stages. What is your filter before searching for a company, sector or founder? I simply apply one formula, which I call the acronym SMILE . S M I L E. So, S stands for "small in size" . M I stands for " medium in experience" , L stands for "large in aspiration" , and E stands for "extra large market potential".
I usually like to invest in a company that is the smallest or at least small in its sector. Not necessarily. Of course, I only invest in small and mid- cap companies. But it has to be a small company in this sector. However, management must have a clean reputation. And have 15-20 years of experience.
So that they see all the ups and downs in this market, the ups and downs in the economy related to their companies, and go through all these stages of life. And L stands for "large in aspiration." Management must be very ambitious. If they don't have the passion, then a company with a capitalization of Rs 5,000 crores will not be able to become a company with a capitalization of Rs 50,000 crores.
So these big aspirations are very important. And, above all , the extremely large market potential is very important. The size of a company's market should be so large that the company always remains small . So, it's through the combination of all these things that I define a company. And this is definitely a bottom-up approach.
This is what I do for myself, and luckily it works pretty well. So I still don't want to change anything. But Vijay, this is quite a difficult task. Requires a lot of research. I'm sure you must have some filters of your own. Company, yes. But how do you ensure that it meets all the criteria? Perhaps there is some kind of screening or filter based on earnings, or an assessment of the value of the shares?
I've bought a few companies in the past that were actually unprofitable at the time but had cash on hand, like Tejas Networks—just to give you an example. Back then the market cap was around 400 crores if I remember correctly and they had around 200 crores on their balance sheet but the sector has completely changed.
I have this rule: always stay invested or invest in promising industries at all costs and stay away from declining industries at all costs. So I'm always looking for sectors that are futuristic. Maybe the time hasn't come yet, or maybe they are at a turning point. Maybe in 3 or 6 months, if the sector as a whole shows good results, the company should have such a balance to be at its best.
This is what I have done in the past. So I'm making sure things are going well. And another formula that I use in this market is this. I always, I'll give you an example with an athlete. Let's say an athlete has a certain track record, say he or she ran a marathon in a certain time or something like that.
But right now this athlete is out of shape. So I take note of this athlete or this story and wait for the moment to improve my results. When a company finds itself at such a point, I think : if it has proven its effectiveness before, maybe next time it will also show good results. So I'm waiting for this turning point.
Sometimes you have to wait 5 years, and sometimes 10. And that's normal. This is my job. And when I see that the company has recovered and the sector is growing, I invest all the funds that I have at that moment in this company. That's what I do all the time . Patience and even more patience. Yes, yes, patience.
Yes. Good. Since you mentioned the smile, I want to talk about the small-cap sector . You know, if you look at the portfolios of individual investors, they were hit hard, especially those who invested in small businesses. Some people now don't even open their balance sheets to review their portfolio status.
Stocks fell somewhere between 80-100 percent . Do you think there will be a recovery in the small- cap sector in 2026? No, I don't think so. I feel like now the situation in '25-'26 will be similar to what we saw—let's just say, we made a lot of money between '21 and '24. Everyone earned. Everyone, meaning everyone, of course, including you.
Of course, we made a lot of money. Income from mutual investment funds - yes . The stock has tripled, quadrupled, 20 times, 50 times, you know. Now we are paying the price for it. We pay tax for this. First you paid income tax, and then you pay the market again. So, the 25th year became a reality, you know, the market showed us the reality, whether you should go out , you don't have to go because you still have to come back.
This is what the 25th year has shown us. The 26th , I think, I believe it will be a year of consolidation. But in my personal view, I think the market has bottomed out . If you look at the indices, even the smaller mid- cap companies, they have fallen very sharply. So I don't think, I mostly think the market has bottomed out .
And at the same time, I have an opinion that this market will not rush to renew its highs . Therefore, this market should be in a consolidation phase. And secondly , I think that even in such a market you will have a lot of opportunities. Why am I telling you this? Because I remember 2008, after the Lehman Brothers financial crisis , the market was in a sideways trend from 2009 to 2014, if you look at the indices.
The market, the index didn't show new highs until, I think, 2014, if I remember correctly. But even then, there were a lot of mid- cap companies, and fortunately, my three stocks went up 100 times between 2008 and after the 2008 crisis, they went up 100 times between 2009 and 2014. So that gave me confidence, and I use the same formula now.
The market may be consolidating according to the indices, but you will definitely find opportunities on it that will bring you a very good profit. But the idea is to find the right stock at the right time. This is what our level of preparation should be. So you are effectively saying wait for another crisis like COVID or 2008.
No, no, the crisis is over. No, this is a crisis, isn't it? We've seen the crisis, you know that in 10 years you'll only see one crisis, right? No, don't expect that. Absolutely not. I don't want any crises either. Yes, yes. So, we saw that crisis. Now we are seeing a correction of that, that, uh, over-optimism of optimism that was there between 2021 and 2024.
So maybe after 2026 you will see a level playing field in the market. I don't think this market will fall any further from here. This is how I feel at this moment. So, where to look for opportunities? Where to look? Because there are many niches that look cheap, but there are also many that have not dropped in price at all .
That's why I say it's not an easy process. Yes , I said that you need to identify the right asset that is available at the right price. So, it's not that easy. This is a continuous process. And the world has also become very dynamic. As you talked about the IT sector and everything else. I saw, if I remember correctly, that Wipro has not generated any revenue in the last 15 years.
So, here's what's happening in IT. And they have a large share of our market capitalization. Infosys, all these IT companies have a significant share. So, they don't show those results. It's not difficult, it's not that easy. This is a complicated thing. But, you know, everything in life is complicated.
Yes. You make it easier with songs. No, it depends, yes, I try...No, inaction is also activity. It's not necessary to run in the garden every day. You need to go to the garden and sing a song. You have to sing a song with me. So I'm saying that it's not necessary to be constantly active in this market.
If you don't find any ideas, it's better to save your money. Don't lose this money on every trade or investment. Your money. Don't lose money on your own on every trade or investment. You can keep money in the bank for a certain period of time. When the right opportunity arises, act. It should be like what they say in Hindi, like " bagla" (heron).
A heron is better than the same body of water, they are called "bagla bhagat" because they sit quietly like saints, without moving. As soon as a fish appears, it instantly grabs it , eats it, and sits quietly like a saint again. So investors should be like that heron, not constantly jumping around, like I'm constantly jumping somewhere.
There is no need for this. If you break your arms or legs, you won't be able to do anything. But you know, Vijay, it's easy for people like you who have seen two bear cycles and then massive bull markets. But most investors who came in at the lows during COVID have not yet seen a bear market. It's very, very difficult for them to be patient in this market.
So this is a lesson for them. That's exactly what I'm saying. No school, college, exam, or course can teach beginners how to behave in this market. Everyone came here wanting to become millionaires overnight. This is the real problem. So what happens in 2025-26 will actually be a great lesson for them .
The market does not always move in one direction. There must be corrections, reactions, and actions. All of this is an integral part of the market. So I think it will help them build character. This will shape their personality to stay in this market for the next 20-30 years. I think this lesson was very important for them.
If they learn this lesson, it will be to their benefit. Otherwise, Joe P will have to fight.
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