저자: Kevin · 외국인
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FTX 유동성 위기와 파산 우려를 다룬다. FTX.com 출금 중단 가능성, FTX US 셧다운 가능성을 경고하며 출금 즉시 빠져나올 것을 권한다. 바이낸스 인수 철회 이후 손실 위험과 청산 연쇄 가능성을 언급한다. 샘 뱅크먼프리드의 트윗(자산 충분, 유동성 확보 노력)을 분석하며 신뢰하지 말 것을 주장한다. FTT 담보 구조의 디레버리징 악순환을 지적한다. 비트코인은 연말 CPI 이후 안정 가능성이 있어 지금은 재진입을 기다리라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
FTX United States might soon be pausing a trading availability as I've said over the last few days it's time to get out and while I don't want to encourage a bank run especially for a company that I've suggested people sign up for in the past I hate to say it it's time to go I don't think anybody saw this one coming it's quite Sad But ultimately we still have time to move which is good withdrawals have actually been reactivated on the international version ftx.com briefly though so far only about eight million dollars have been able to be withdrawed uh this so far this morning and Thursday in a one-hour time frame I think that's relatively low but in addition to this Potential Threat coming to FTX us which is likely because of the common ownership that you have between ftx.com the international Wing nftx.us even though they're different systems and platforms with common ownership and the SEC in White House now watching FTX probably gonna get a shutdown at ftxus ftx.us the US version pretty dang soon so get ready and personally uh get out this is my opinion now what updates do we have on the situation we've got updates from not only this potential shutdown coming but we've got updates on Sam bankman freed some uh comments from him and we also have some insight into how this went so wrong at FTX so we're going to talk about both of those let's go ahead and start with what sandbankment free just tweeted and then let's get into how could this get so freaking wrong after all binance pulled out of the deal which we already knew about yesterday in fact I was on Yahoo finance just minutes before binance can the deal and I'm like they should walk you don't know who owns them anyone who's ever tried to sue binance has ended up giving up on their lawsuit because he can't even figure out who owns these companies so what's the Fallout here well I think binance probably smart from walking away from the f FTX deal I think they'll take multi-billion dollar loss trying to bail out FTX that could lead unfortunately though to more liquidations we don't know how bad those will get but if we see large liquidations because of an FTX bankruptcy that could move over to the US FTX version since they have the international Wing in the U.S version and then ultimately if price has got low enough you could even see I need to say it but you could see a company like even binance go under and that's the last leg standing I mean so what do you think that binance saw when they looked under the hood at FTX and when you do have so much power Consolidated here what does that mean for the broader industry yeah I think what happens is you look at the books of FTX and what you'll probably see is hey you've got six billion dollars roughly this is what Bloomberg and some commenters on Bloomberg are estimating uh you've got about six billion dollars that people are trying to withdraw and binance probably looked and said well you've only got one or something like that right we're estimating and so binance has to decide do we want to cover that loss that five billion dollar difference is that worth it to us and how many customers are we going to get after that the big issue though is if everybody's bailing out and leaving the centralized platforms then what's the point of bailing out FTX if you're going to get a shell of a company so this is probably where it would be a lose-lose situation for binance to buy them because they take a loss and then not have the customers but if they don't bail out FTX we could see liquidations that could also then in turn hurt binance if the underlying value of their cryptocurrency these like their binance token collapses which is possible and then you just don't have centralized cryptocurrency left everything's just you either have it on a cold wallet or it just becomes worthless so what's Sam bankman freed up to right now well here's what he's saying on Twitter first he shows us this account with like six thousand three hundred dollars on in it you know I don't know if he's trying to flex because he's bankrupt or if he's trying to be relatable but anyway uh he starts off this like 20 Page or 20 post Tweet storm by talking about send which is basically him talking about how much easier they're going to try to make it for international sending of money keep in mind they're looking for like a multi-billion dollar bailout to help provide them liquidity uh so they can survive because so he's he's kind of got a prop up and sell FTX even though it's basically bankrupt so the first few posts he talks about this then he says take a deep breath now and talk about the future so talks a little bit about respect including respect for CZ uh and let's hit some of the core posts that actually give us some real interesting insight into what's going on so first Sam bankman freed says that note ftx.us and binance.us two separate companies are not currently impacted by the ftx.com issues and that's worth noting and something that I just started this video off with as well but I expect pain to come potentially to both of these platforms if we continue to have liquidity issues in the crypto market now the good news is we had thank goodness soft CPI this morning Consumer Price Index and inflation reads and that's actually propped up Bitcoin a lot I mean look at this on the one minute chart you've got a lot of volatility but let's go to the one hour chart here look at that pain we had yesterday going down to 15.5 bouncing up to almost 18 000 here getting rejected to 18 000 now sitting at 17 30.
as long as BTC can really hold over here this this is going to be critical for liquidity for these other firms though they don't have some of the similar issues that FTX has or had and see this morning JP Moore Oregon warned of like a rush of margin calls coming to the crypto industry that are still being fulfilled and those could push BTC down to 13 000 they projected although of course that projection was made before the CPI numbers came in as far as as soft as they did so maybe some of that that pain will be alleviated all right so now getting to the juicy thread so here we go first he says I'm sorry that's the biggest thing I effed up and should have done better I also should have been communicating more recently uh that is with more transparency but his hands he says were tied during the duration of a finance deal I mean that's kind of BS because the binance deal wasn't actually happening until you hit crisis level and over the weekend and last week you're like we don't have any liquidity issues we're fine everything's good all the rumors are fake news and they turned out not to be fake news right that's like the opposite of transparency then here's the update this is all about FTX International non-uh us the non on US exchange FTX users in the United States are fine he says I don't buy that as far as I can throw it I would not trust it right now we could come back in the future maybe but for right now I'd be out anyway FTX International currently has a total market value assets collateral higher than client deposits uh okay well keep this in mind that FTX International currently has a total market value of assets divided by collateral higher than client deposits you could this may be true and this means the company's not insolvent insolvent is when you owe more than your company is actually has an asset so if you have a thousand computers worth 10 million dollars those are your assets and if you have debt uh debts of 20 million dollars it means you're insolvent like you're upside down right uh however it depends what they're calling assets what if he's saying well are intangibles like our brand value are worth 20 billion dollars and that's worth more than all of our collateral so this is not necessarily liquid assets right so that's a little bit of a red flag to me I wouldn't trust that I think it's a sales pitch too ironically unsavvy Venture Capital investors but okay full story here is one I am fleshing out every detail of but at a very high level I effed up twice the first time a poor internal labeling of Bank related accounts meant that I was substantially off on my sense of users margin okay first of all are you like literally the only dude who's sitting at a computer like oh yes these are our bank stresses and balances right now like where's the team wait like where are the automatic selling tools for when a collateral Falls and things need to be sold on margin see a lot of people at FTX were using uh we believe the ftt token as collateral because they were getting yields on ftt and then they so they had ftt parked as collateral and then what they do is they go borrow money against that ftt to go buy Bitcoin so let's say you had 200 of ftt maybe they'd let you buy a hundred dollars of Bitcoin but as Matt Levine put it this morning on Bloomberg that is the perfect way to set up a death spiral and it's the stupidest thing to do because basically if people get concerned about the stability of FTX as a brokerage a crypto brokerage basically then the value of ftt goes down because it's kind of like the value of FTX because FTX created the token ftt and FTX promised to buy with profits more ftt token so in some way ftt token is propped up on how strong FTX is as a company but the problem with that is if ftt uh you know loses value and then people question the value of FTX then ftt goes down even more and if FT T goes down even more you start having margin calls on other people's assets which leads people to want to leave the platform leads to more pain and so what happened ftt becomes less valuable then you start getting a potential Bank Run essentially on FTX now FTX becomes more value or becomes less valuable right they both lose value but if FTX becomes less valuable then so does ftt so you have this like stair-stepping death spiral disaster of ftt gets less valuable when FTX gets less valuable so if people are using ftt as collateral and they're getting margin called at FTX you have a crisis of a situation this is different from what you have with big Banks because think about it if you have uh you know a two million dollar margin account and let's say you're in on Tesla stock and you're you're out to you know you take two million dollars of margin out in cash well let's say and you park that cash somewhere your cash doesn't become less valuable because your Tesla stock went down and JP Morgan as an institution doesn't affect the value of your Tesla stock or the value of your dollar whereas ftt goes down when FTX becomes more risky and if FDX becomes more risky ftt goes down and you stare step down it's terrible that connection is so terrible and that's how you get this debt spiral of a collateralized nightmare so my sense before zero X leverage USD liquidity ready to deliver 24 times the average daily withdrawals actual numbers they only had 80 percent of the needed withdrawals on Sunday and leverage was actually 1.7 x which means it's actually a lot for every hundred dollars of of ask that somebody had people were actually about 70 percent leverage that's crazy and so of course when it rains it pours we saw roughly five billion dollars of withdrawals on Sunday that's a pretty good estimate because Bloomberg yesterday was estimating 6 billion five that's pretty dang close so I was off twice which tells me a lot of things but specifically and generally that I was bad at and the third time I'm not communicating enough well yeah that's that's obvious anyway so then he apologizes and says we're human says that right now the priority is due right by users which some people are like so are you gonna make people whole but he probably can't because he's bankrupt as some people say you know no guarantee so that's just an opinion so right now we're spending the week doing everything we can to raise liquidity I can't make any promises about that but I'm going to try and give anything I have that'll make it work there are a number of players we're in talks with letters of intents and sheets we'll see how it ends up basically he's asking everybody in the world like hey we'll give you equity in FTX if you could just bail us out basically right at the end of the day I was the CEO that means I was responsible and he failed so what does that mean going forward I have no idea also we're basically closing down Alameda research because it's worthless anyway and we screwed up and in any scenario in which FTX continues operating its first priority will be radical transparency well which kind of should have been done in the first place which you think it would be in blockchain it's kind of weird that he's talking about these like transparency issues when technically everything's on the blockchain right so it's like you know Ikea it's like we're in these situations where you know blockchain's transparent but then something crazy happens and then it's like well I guess it wasn't that obvious yeah uh so there's definitely a lot of cleanup to do here and I think regulation is really going to help here some other comments uh this is all about FTX International the U.S based exchange which accepts Americans is not financially impacted it's 100 liquid dude we've heard this a million times before okay this is what what bear Stearns told us too so uh and then he gives some kind of generic disclaimer here and uh yeah that's the latest update with an apology that we have from Sam bankman free so uh and again remember look at this Sam bankman free did tweet this on the weekend a competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors FTX is fine assets are fine details right and then we have that tweet actually being deleted one day later ah so okay where do we stand well where we stand is uh the FTX token because of bitcoin's rally is actually up and because there is some hope that some withdrawals are returning the FTX token is actually up uh it's a marginally it's up about two percent at the moment it's still only at 3.63 so I mean I guess up is relative when you're down like you know a lot uh remember this was trading for about 50 bucks earlier in the year over here in April trading for three dollars now so if you do three 3.66 divided by 50 bucks you're down 92.68 that's not exactly the best performance here and and uh you know you're down from uh uh you know 366 from 26 bucks just a bit ago you're down like 86 so sure the fluctuations on this are going to be wild in fact the fact that it just went from plus two percent to plus six percent and implies the liquidity here is very very thin when the order books are thin you get very very quick movements in either directions all right so big bottom line out of all of this there are other brokerages who don't use their own token for collateral like Banks don't do that I don't believe binance does that so that is a benefit to binance uh I don't believe coinbase does that so I think that that's a benefit to coinbase I do think that the liquidity crisis we are seeing is going to take probably a few weeks to play out and it could lead to some other shoes to drop so I do think there's still downside potential for cryptos however they are going to be propped up with the rising tide of the stock market moving up very nicely because of what could potentially be Peak inflation this means a lot of the stress on the crypto Market could actually settle down and calm down and the way to play this in my opinion is uh maybe if you're thinking about hey when should I get back into crypto my thought is well certainly after you get your 60 off on the amazing ncluding the entrepreneurial new course Elite Hustlers University and the zero to millionaire real estate course or the stocks course or the other ones but I would probably wait until after the next CPI report because I think that's the game changer if December 13th reiterates low in Peak inflation perfect maybe and then we have stability by then maybe it's safe to go back in if uh you know you know we get bad CPI uh in uh December then I probably would wait to see what other things crack so anyway these are my thought
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