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Congratulations. We are at the beginning of a crypto bull market. And if I had to give a date, I would say it's August, but you might question whether it's really a "bull" market because people think it's fragile, but that's how it all starts. But here's the thing. This could be the biggest bull market we've ever seen , okay?
So, I'll give you four reasons why this bull market is different from others. Tom Lee believes that Bitcoin could be entering one of the biggest bull markets in history. With institutional investors pouring into cryptocurrency, billions flowing through ETFs, and a huge wave of tokenization approaching, the next rally could surprise everyone.
But is Bitcoin just getting started? In this video, we'll break down Tom Lee's optimistic forecast and the powerful forces that could propel Bitcoin to new heights. releases. So, first of all, we have a full-fledged crypto bull market. Too many signs have appeared that only occur during a bull market.
So, let me begin. The first is institutional support. I mean, it's not just Franklin who's talking about the start of a "bull" market, but Fidelity, BlackRock, and all the big players. I've never seen this in the last three crypto winter cycles, never seen institutions make statements like this. We also have a technical argument.
Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average. This happened on August 19. Also on August 19, a “ golden cross” took place on Ethereum. But you see, the last time Bitcoin crossed its 200-day line was last August, last April . But since 2010, Bitcoin has shown an average of 80% return over the next 6 months.
200% profit. Ethereum yields an average of 290%. Good. Now you can see it on the graph, I can simplify. These are other crossings above the 200- day line. Of the last nine crossings, eight marked the beginning of a bull market. We also have positive flows in ETFs. You will not have positive flows into cryptocurrency during a bear market, only during a bull market.
Only in "bull" stock markets are positive flows observed. And we have proof, because cryptocurrency was the best-performing macro asset by a huge margin in the third quarter of this year, from June to September. AI company stocks fell this quarter. We were in very dire financial circumstances. We had a hawkish Fed policy, soaring oil prices, rising global bond yields, and tight financial conditions.
However, cryptocurrencies performed better . This is what happens in a bull market. The crypto market ignores the fact that the Fed is hostile. And finally, this is information from Tom Demark. He is one of our exclusive timing advisors. This year, he saved at least a hundred million dollars for Bitmain.
He is worth his weight in gold. And he says: “ We are confident that Ethereum will continue to grow in price.” He believes that Ethereum should easily surpass the $3,000 mark within the next few weeks. And finally, I know this is a bull market because the four-year cycle has bottomed out. So, if you check your watch, the bottom was on October 5th.
Thus, we are two days away from the bottom for the crypto market. In short, it's all about math. We are in a " bull" market. But here's the thing. This could be the biggest bull market we've ever seen . Of course? So, I'll give you four reasons why this bull market is different from others. Good? As Joe Lubin says, you're not optimistic enough.
OK. First, there is a large institutional history surrounding tokenization. The " bull" market of 2016-2017 was dedicated to ICOs. This was a story for retail investors. The period 2019-2021 is an NFT boom, but it was a retail market boom. Of course, this has led to new and wonderful technologies. Last year we had a boom in stablecoins.
It was interrupted by the automatic deleveraging event on October 10th, which wiped out many people and started a huge crypto winter . But we are here. An institutional wave awaits us. BlackRock and other investment companies want to tokenize everything on blockchains. Vlad Tenev of Robinhood, which I think will be a top 10 financial institution within a decade, says we are at the beginning of a supercycle.
Everything that works on traditional financial rails will be tokenized. This is a massive wave. How big is this wave? Well, remember that the crypto market is a $2 trillion market. Today, there are $200 trillion in liquid assets outside the crypto market, growing by $7 trillion per year. If you've ever wondered if there's money to build data centers, there's $ 7 trillion in new money coming in every year.
Just the three largest markets—that’s $160 trillion that could enter the cryptosphere. Remember, the ratio is 1 to 37. One trillion dollars invested in cryptocurrency will turn it into a market size of 37 trillion dollars. And , of course, a lot of this happens on Ethereum. BlackRock, JP Morgan, Robinhood— they are building on Ethereum.
Ethereum, of course, has a huge community. The number of developers today is equal to the entire rest of the community combined. So, this is a powerful wave. The second difference of this " bull" market is that there is a large-scale redistribution of capital. I don't think this is talked about enough.
But Vlad says it's a hundred trillion over the next 10 years. We can observe this. This is data from the IRS. During the past “bull” cryptocurrency market, you know? $400 billion in wealth was inherited. In the next cycle, it will be about one and a half to two trillion. This is when baby boomers or older people retire and millennials receive the inheritance.
These funds are moving from bonds to stocks and cryptocurrency. Large-scale, simply huge infusions. A significant portion will come from private equity and private debt, at least 12 trillion. So consider this a colossal purchasing power. And of course, I think that explains why we're seeing such crazy growth.
I mean, amazing growth. The third thing that is happening in this cycle that hasn't happened in previous ones is digital asset treasuries . You ask, what role can they play? Well, first of all, “data” (DATs ) are crypto’s friends in a bull market. Of course? In this bear market, people have been asking, does "give" make sense?
By the way, Bitmain is a digital asset treasury. And that's because in this bear market, only four Treasuries are trading above net asset value. However, including Bitmain. But in the next "bullish " cycle, I think all these DATs will recover. And they will start buying cryptocurrency. In a bull market, this means supporting the underlying blockchain.
Why is that? Because they are withdrawing the offer . DAT Ethereum today owns 7% of the crypto supply. Bitcoin-DAT is owned by 6.5%. DAT Solana—3%. But look at Hyperliquid. This is a very successful chain and project, partly because Hyperliquid DAT owns 14% of the supply. When you take an offer off the market and then a bull market comes along, guess what happens?
The price will increase significantly more. And DAT Ethereum owns the largest share among the "big three." 7%offer. This, you know, simply didn't exist during the last "bull" market . That's why, if you're thinking about the growth potential of ETH, I think you're underestimating how far it can go. And finally, a new story has emerged .
You can see it at this conference and among the exhibitors. Cryptocurrency is an important story that stems from the development of AI. So, AI is, of course, a megatrend. But everyone thinks it's just about semiconductors, memory, and bottlenecks, but that's not the case. When the semiconductor and memory markets corrected, stocks of companies working with AI technologies outperformed them.
" Magic Seven", software and cryptocurrencies. Marc Andreessen from A16Z—I know you'll have an A16Z representative on your next panel . They see agent payments as a great combination of AI and cryptocurrency, because AI agents will manage money. They might have a Visa card, but more likely they will have a crypto wallet.
We know that non-human sources are becoming the dominant source of traffic. In fact, they are also the largest consumers of computing tokens in the AI space today. These are the other agents. And we have to be careful because agents can now bypass CAPTCHAs. We can't even tell who is who. Therefore, we need to keep people in the decision-making process.
This is where cryptocurrencies, finality, smart contracts, and enforcement mechanisms come into play. So, again, I don't think you're optimistic enough. The biggest crypto cycle is ahead. And I just want to emphasize this. So, whatever your growth forecast, or if you doubt that we are in a cycle, because the last 12 months have been quite tough.
We see it here. There is so much crypto energy at this conference. This was also noticeable at KBW last week, and it's a big change from what we experienced before. Lee's prediction extends not only to Bitcoin, but also to Ethereum and other first-level blockchain networks . The first- layer network is the underlying blockchain that processes transactions and supports applications.
Ethereum and Solana are examples of networks designed to support programmable applications. Although they use different technical approaches, Lee believes these networks can capture a significant share of the value created by tokenization, digital finance, and AI payments. He draws conclusions from the past decade of investing in cryptocurrencies.
Let's say you are bullish on ETH, and I think you should be. You should be optimistic about L1 networks. I...we had dinner in Taiwan recently with some people I met 10 years ago when I first started researching Bitcoin . So, imagine, 10 years ago, a bitcoin was worth less than a thousand. And today, Bitcoin is worth 80,000.
So these venture capitalists, when I had dinner with them, I expected them to be living like they were on private jets. After all, at a minimum, if Bitcoin gave an 80-fold return, their venture investments could have yielded a hundred or a thousand times more. But here's what they said. They said their venture profits were good, but they regret not just buying Bitcoin.
Of course? And that's exactly what I'm telling you now. In this cycle, you want to have maximum stake in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even Solana. I believe that level 1 (L1) blockchains will take a significant portion of the cost. But there is a way to beat L1’s results, and that is by buying digital asset treasuries.
And Bitmain has every chance to outperform the market in this cycle. I want this point to be very clear. So, there are three ways we do this. First—Bitmain maintains the maximum stake in Ethereum in this bull market cycle. Of course? Here is the price of Ethereum. It has been consolidated for five years.
You know, the longer the base, the more powerful the breakthrough. The last time Ethereum consolidated, it surged 227 times. And before that— 54 times. I think, considering tokenization, AI, everything I talked about, decentralized applications and wealth redistribution, it's at least a 25x increase.
Of course? What does this mean for Bitmain's share price? The company's shares are currently worth 26. And Bitmain is 90 % correlated with Ethereum. So, if the price of Ethereum reaches 22,000, which I consider a low target, Bitmain's stock price will increase from 26 to 300–500. This is a large-scale movement.
If Ethereum reaches 62,000, Bitmain's share price will be 1,200–1,500. You see, we are really focused on ensuring that Bitmain's share price is as dependent on Ethereum as possible. Good. Second, we wanted to reach a level of 5% of the total supply. This is a hard limit. We will not accumulate more than 5%.
Of course? Because people don't want to think that we are diluting shareholder value, which we are not doing. Of course? Because look at everything we've accomplished in our first year. Bitmain has only been around for 15 months, and we have already made many breakthroughs and achieved many firsts. Let me tell you about a few of them.
First, we reached 6 million ETH. This is 4.9% of the total supply. I want to draw your attention to the bottom part of the graph. Bitmain has also been added to the Russell 1000 index. This is an index of large-cap US stocks. There are only six cryptocurrency companies in the Russell 1000. We are the only company betting on Ethereum.
This means that when large institutions and hedge funds want to gain access to cryptocurrencies, there is only one stock they will buy: Bitmain. But we said we have a hard limit of 5%. We will not own more than 5% of Ethereum. This is what Vitalik once asked us to do— to stand on our heels. Justin Drake, foundation.
We will stop at 5%. So where are we in relation to this 5%? Well, this is our ETH accumulation over the last 15 months. Of course? And you see that now we have 6 million. It took a little over a year. We thought it would take 5 years. It took a little over a year. More importantly, we did all this in the middle of a bear market.
Of course? So we bought ETH when no one wanted to buy it. We were happy to buy it cheap. We bought a lot for 1,500. But it was in the middle of a " bear" market. And now we will stop. We only need to get another 100,000 ETH to reach 5%. Of course? But we will stop there. The reason we're stopping is this schedule.
We bought all of this during the bear market. Of course? So, actually, I think we helped set a floor for ETH. We limited the fall for ETH because we were buying. But now we have finished accumulating before the 25x growth. So if we have a hard limit of 5%, that means we will be ahead of ETH on the way up.
Tom Lee believes that the cryptocurrency market may be entering a historical period driven by forces that go far beyond traditional speculation. Institutional tokenization could connect trillions of dollars of conventional financial assets with blockchain infrastructure. Generational shifts in capital ownership may change the way young investors allocate it.
Digital asset treasuries could create additional demand for cryptocurrencies, while AI-powered agents could eventually demand new forms of programmable payments.
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