저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 5월 고용지표(+172k, 예상 80k 상회)로 금리 상승(10년물 4.5% 상회)이 나오며 나스닥 -4.2%, 반도체 급락. 마이크론은 Nvidia Vera Rubin 서버랙 DRAM 용량 55TB→28TB 루머에 13% 급락했으나, 진행자는 실제 출하 구성상 SO-DIMM 교체형 특성으로 총 메모리 수요는 유지된다고 해석. 단기 기술적 조정 가능성은 인정하나 AI 인프라 장기 추세는 불변이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back. Sorry for getting this video out so late. I've been in meetings all night. It's the first time that I've had a chance to sit down and share some of my thoughts, share some of my feelings about what we saw in the market today. Because I'm sure each and every one of you are wondering what happened.
We probably expected to see a little bit of selling pressure, but not to the extent that we saw by the end of the day at the closing bell. Let me pull up an article just to show you from the Wall Street Journal that what the impact was not only on our indexes, but let's talk about the individual positions that we have.
But you can see in this article, "Sell-off in chip stocks prompt Nasdaq bloodbath." Take a look at what happened across all of our indexes today. And take a look at that Nasdaq line driving the furthest down. In fact, the Nasdaq today it plunged over 1,100 points. It was a brutal 4.2% wipeout of the index.
The S&P 500 it slumped by almost 3% today. In fact, it was the worst single-day drop in the entire year. It snapped an elite nine-week winning streak that we've seen with that index. But the real carnage, honestly, the real carnage happened in the semiconductor sector where massive institutional profit-taking wiped out hundreds of billions in market value in a single session.
And right at the epicenter of this earthquake today was our favorite stock that we follow on this channel, Micron Technology. Just take a look at what happened with Micron's. Almost $132 in stock value down in one single session. It closed at 864.01. And just think about that. 48 hours ago, this stock was trading at an all-time high of almost 1,080 a share.
And today the algorithm the algorithms flushed it below 870 on absolutely massive volume. So, if you're a retail investor holding a semiconductor name, an AI infrastructure, or a mega-cap tech stock, you're probably asking yourself right now, "What happened? Is the AI growth story officially broken?
Is this the start of a massive bear window that we're a massive bear market that we're entering right now or is this the ultimate gift wrapped accumulation window before the hard numbers take back control of the tape. Tonight we're going to look past the panic. We're going to do an audit of the exact macro metrics, the institutional block trades and the architectural shifts that drove this market down today.
Most importantly, we're going to outline exactly what to expect when the opening bell rings next week and how you can protect your capital overall. So if you haven't done it already guys, hit like, hit subscribe to the channel. Let's dive in. Let's talk about the catalyst that we saw that drove the morning sell-off.
Was this a drop a random surprise? No, the market was tightly wound sitting at all-time highs earlier this week waiting for a spark. And then at 8:30 a.m. this morning the labor department dropped this news. And let me pull it up. You can see on your screen that the US adds 172,000 jobs in May. What the gain means for the Fed's next move overall.
So in any normal market this would be a positive sign. This was the US non-farm payroll payroll report that dropped this morning. It revealed, as you can see on the screen, that the economy added a jaw-dropping 172,000 jobs in May. The Wall Street forecasters, they were expecting only about 80,000 jobs.
The labor market didn't just beat expectations, it obliterated them. And like I said, in a normal world a booming job report is a good thing. But in the 2026 macro landscape, good news is bad news for equity. Why? Because a hyper-resilient labor market means inflationary pressures are still cooking under the hood.
Instantly, the bond market went into an absolute frenzy. Take a look at that. I'm going to pull up and you can see over on the far right the 10-year Treasury bond. You can see the bond it jumped. The 10-year number spiked towards jumped over 4.5%. The smart money instantly recalculated their math. Any lingering hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this year evaporated.
Instead, institutional interest rates the interest rate swaps began actively pricing in a very real probability that the Fed may be forced to hike interest rates later this year to stamp out inflation. And we know when interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, the mathematical models used by hedge funds to discount the future cash flows of high multiple growth stocks, it just absolutely breaks.
They are forced to reduce exposure to expensive tech stocks and shift capital to defensive into defensive cash yields or value sectors. The macro trap was spun today It was spun today before the equity market even opened. And there was some other news that I want to drop in and I want to talk about.
There were some specific microcap factors today that absolutely crushed Micron. Beyond the macro backdrop that we just talked about, there was a massive rumor that spread through trading desk today regarding Nvidia's next-generation supercomputing platform, Vera Rubin. The rumor sparked The rumor stated, excuse me, that Nvidia was cutting its memory requirements per server rack nearly in half, slashing specifications from from 55 terabytes down to 28 terabytes.
The algorithms read the headline that Nvidia cuts memory in half and it triggered a massive sell signal and dumped Micron shares blindly. But if you look at the physical architecture, I want to pull up a report. Let's jump over actually and do that now. Let's pull up an article that actually walks through what Nvidia actually shared.
So, if you look at the physical architecture in this article, you can see is Nvidia Rubin soaking memory cut triggers market panic and Micron decline. And when I key up here, the key message is Nvidia's rear rear Rubin NVL 72 may reduce rack level so cam DRAM capacity from a previously expected 55 terabytes to 28 terabytes with most Rubin systems adopting 96 gigabyte so cam modules instead of the previously anticipated 192 gigabytes.
And you can see below it said once that news spread, the market reaction was swift and harsh. Memory demand was halved. The this is a negative for Micron. Negative shares plunged more than 10% intraday crashing crashing from its previous days all-time high of of 1089 to 971. It even went further than that.
It wiped out 100 billion in market value in a single day. But here's where it says the fear is real, but the direction of that is the direction of that fear correct? And let me show you right here in the first paragraph that GPUs are equipped with HBM4 offering 288 gigabytes per chip resulting in a total of approximately 20.7 terabytes per rack.
This remains unchanged. The change that actually is is in relation to the CPU side of it. The CPU supports 1.5 terabytes of LPDDR5X corresponding to a configuration of 892 gigabyte modules fully populated. With 36 CPUs this totals 54 terabytes. So semi analyst report states that the actual shipping configurations are unlikely to be fully populated.
Most systems will use 96 gigabytes resulting in you know, 768 gigabytes per CPU. With 36 P CPUs this amounts to approximately 28 terabytes. Reduced from 55 terabytes to 28 terabytes. A capacity cut of nearly in half. Clickbait headlines would call it memory requirements halves, but the market got one variable wrong.
I just want to pull this back up. That's SO-DIMM, as you know, it is designed as a slot-based module, not a soldered in There's not soldered in place. And this is the most easily overlooked technical detail in the whole story cuz unlike the Grace Blackwell 300, the Blackwell Ultra, which features LPDDR5 soldered directly onto the motherboard, the Vera Rubin platform uses the JEDEC standardized SO-DIMM 2 modules, which are hot-swappable, removable, and upgradeable.
So, what that means, guys, you pull it down here, that if each rack of SO-DIMM is reduced from 55 TB to 28, Nvidia can still install significantly significantly more racks under the same LPDDR5X supply constraints. Previously, a batch of memory was sufficient for only 100 racks. Now, it can support nearly 200.
And let's jump back. I want to talk about cuz this was the biggest piece I think that was misunderstood in the entire side. First is HBM4 remains absolutely unchanged. Nothing has changed. Demand is completely maxed out. Nvidia is not is not cutting a single gigabyte of HBM. The reduction is actually happening on the CPU side, like we mentioned.
And that utilizes a different type of memory. But here's the other piece is that they are you can actually add more memory back for SO-DIMM 2. So, listen to me closely on this piece. This is the biggest takeaway from the story that the total volume of memory being consumed across AI ecosystems have not shrunk.
It's simply being distributed across a higher volume of individual racks. Even better for Micron because SO-DIMM modules use a slot-based design. Just like an MRAM stick in a in a desktop PCU. Enterprise customers can easily upgrade those racks from 20 from 28 terabytes to 55 terabytes later as supply normalizes.
So, why did the stock drop down closely 13% today? First, in my opinion, it was dragged down by the structural sector contagion. Yesterday, Broadcom reported blockbuster AI earnings, but the broader market the the year the full year guidance didn't exceed the ridiculously high whisper numbers institutional desks wanted to see.
Broadcom dropped 12% yesterday and another almost 4% today acting as an anchor on the entire chip space. Second, earlier this week, Nvidia officially qualified all three major memory suppliers. Let me show you that story. You can see on your screen that Nvidia certifies big three for HBM4, securing memory supply for Vera Rubin with SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron.
So, this confirms that Micron's technology is a lead and it is a qualified. Wall Street realized that Nvidia now holds the pricing leverage because it is no longer dependent on a single source. And then the last piece overall was a bit of a consumer. The last kind of micro cap story that hit was what we saw was a consumer warning flag today.
The the retail heavyweight Lululemon it cratered by 12% today after slashing its forward guidance proving that the broader consumer market is starting to feel the pinch of high interest rates and sticky inflation. And at this point, guys, I think it's important to separate what actually changed this week from what simply changed in stock price.
What changed? What changed this week was interest rates, the expectations changed, valuation multiples did change, short-term sentiment changed. Traders who were sitting on massive gains suddenly found themselves staring at a hot jobs report, rising treasury yields, and a market that became extremely extended after a powerful two-month rally.
But what didn't change this week? Nvidia's AI roadmap didn't change. The global race to build AI infrastructure didn't change. The demand for high-bandwidth memory, that didn't change. The optical networking build-out didn't change. Micron's sold-out HBM capacity or production through 2026 didn't change.
In other words, the market spent today repricing expectations, not rewriting the long-term infrastructure story. And that distinction matters because investors who confuse a valuation reset with a fundamental breakdown often end up selling exact assets that they wanted to own for the next 3 to 5 years.
So was today's drop an expect an unexpected surprise or was it a healthy mechanical reset? The reality is that a pullback of this magnitude that we saw today is entirely normal when an index has moved completely vertical over the last 2 months. The market was searching for an excuse to lock in historic semiconductor profits, and the combinations of a hot jobs report, minor guidance misses provided the perfect cover for that.
So what does it mean for us for next week? In the immediate short-term, we have to respect the technical damage done to the daily candles today. When a stock like Micron drops 13% on massive volume, it creates a liquidity pocket. Momentum algorithms and short-term trading desks will likely try to push the tape a lower early next week to test major institutional support levels.
If the 10-year Treasury yield climbs past 4.5%, if it gets up to 4.6%, expect expect growth sectors under tight pressure to remain under tight pressure as funds continue to balance the risk uh parameters in the market. However, look if we look under the hood of today's it was a sector rotational story.
Capital didn't leave the market entirely. It changed addresses. Money flowed directly out of expensive tech names and parked safely into financials, healthcare, and defensive value share defense defensive value stocks. And why is this bullish for tech long-term? It's because the capital is still sitting in stock inside the equity ecosystem.
It's resting on the sidelines. The moment tech names hit key institutional support levels, like Micron approaching its long-term move moving average, automated execution desks will look at massive valuation discounts and begin rotating capital right back into the chip chip infrastructure. The core secular trend, the massive multi-billion dollar build-out of AI data centers, optical networking, and next-generation memory has not changed one bit.
But before I let you go tonight, I want to speak directly to the investors in our community who may be feeling a bit anxious overall. The key is to separate the price the price action we saw today from the fundamentals. The market can reprice expectations in a single day, but structural demand trends take years to change.
Do not let short-term macro interest rates a rate rate adjustments or algorithm confusion dictate your long-term wealth strategy. Real wealth isn't built during green vertical days. It's secured on dark red days when you have the emotional discipline to stay grounded while everyone else is panicking.
Let the market digest the viability of the viability the volatility over the weekend. Watch the tape closely next week. Track the institutional support levels and remember, volatility is the price of admission for generational gains. If you found value in tonight's analysis, smash that like button for me.
, and drop a comment below. Let me know what your plan is for next week. Let me know how you're feeling right now. Guys, I'll see you in the next video. Hope you enjoyed this one and again, sorry for getting it out so
Comments 0