저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이크론·브로드컴 급락은 기초체력 훼손이 아닌 기계적 매물 소화이며 펀더멘털은 견고하다고 주장. 마이크론은 장기계약 전환을 가격결정력의 증거로 해석하고, 브로드컴은 AI 매출 성장과 소프트웨어 부문의 기대치 미달을 근거로 하락을 과매도로 봄. 애널리스트 목표가 상향 사례를 들어 저가 매수 기회로 제시. 근거 수치: 마이크론 목표가 1750/1625 유지, 브로드컴 Q2 AI매출 108억 달러(+143%), 모닝스타 공정가치 650달러 상향.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back. I just got to my hotel in Chicago and I had to share this video because I've been watching the market all day thinking about each and every one of you, wondering what your sentiment is right now because you're probably seeing a lot of aggressive red in your portfolio. Probably saw a lot of aggressive red with some stocks that we talk a lot about on this channel, which would be Micron and Broadcom.
Quite frankly, you might be feeling a little bit of whiplash from what we saw at the opening bell today and how quickly these stocks just gapped down. And it's completely natural to have this sense of anxiety and feeling when you see a sharp pullback like we did today in the opening. It starts to make you wonder if something is fundamentally broken our thesis or is something broke with these stocks.
Should we worry about the performance of these stocks long-term? And I want to cut straight to the chase and tell you that the core fundamentals of the infrastructure trade that we talk about on this channel, the memory wall and the connectivity wall, remain completely intact. And the core fundamentals for these two assets, Micron and Broadcom, remain completely intact.
They're strong as ever. So, what we saw on the tape today or what we saw on the performance of the market, it was not an operational failure. It's not a sign that the AI cycle is slowing down. In my opinion, this was a pure mechanical heavy volume valuation flush. When stocks move as fast as they have, like we've seen over the last month with Micron and with Broadcom in particular, they build up an incredible amount of premium in the asset.
Today, institutional algorithms and short-term desks, they simply used a couple of misunderstood headlines to trigger a massive profit-taking event and shake out weak retail hands. Tonight, we are not going to panic over the daily candles. Instead, we're going to look at the hard closing numbers from Broadcom's block blockbuster earnings print that they had yesterday.
And we're also going to look at the actual reality behind Micron's long-term contract updates. Why why the the institutions or some analysts feel that is bearish is beyond me, but we're going to look at the the value of those long-term contracts for Micron. And I'm going to show you exactly why everything is everything is fundamentally strong under the hood with these two companies.
Not only is it strong, I actually think it's starting to accelerate even more. So, that's what we're going to talk about on today's video. We're going to focus on Micron. We're going to focus on Broadcom. , and I'm going to give you my insights about these stocks moving forward. But, if you haven't done it yet, .
I say it all the time, but I truly mean it. I appreciate you taking your time to watch these videos, to subscribe, to engage on the content. So, let's keep it going. Let's keep growing this community together. All right, let's start off and just take a look at what we saw with Micron today. So, let me pull up that All right, as you can see here with Micron, it actually it was down today over seven seven and a half percent, 7.6% down over $82.
It closed just under a thousand. So, it actually pushed back up. I was watching it. It dropped down violently. It got back up to about a thousand twenty-two, and we just saw a pullback right in the last probably hour or so of the trading day. It dipped back under the thousand mark again. You can see in the after hours right now, we're seeing a little further pullback about eight dollars back, a little under one percent right now.
So, the stock is sitting at about 988, just about under 990. If you look to the right, you can see the actual daily range. We got to an intraday low of 771, and that happened right in the beginning of the day. I'm going to show you that in a moment on the five-minute candle chart, but it shot down. the bears were trying to push this stock down, no question about it.
Short-term trading desk, they spent the morning the morning panic selling a headline that Micron is shifting its primary tier one hyperscaler customers into strict multi-year supply contracts. For some reason, that headline drove down the it drove down the sentiment for the stock. The bears tried to push it down overall.
It was an immediate bear narrative, and it was flying around social media that by locking in corporate customers or corporate contracts right now or fixing those corporate contracts, Micron is voluntarily capping its near-term upside and giving up the ability to leverage the vertically exploding spot market pricing we're seeing right now.
In my opinion though, for long-term investors like all of us on the channel, these contracts can improve revenue visibility and reduce earnings volatility. These contracts provide locked-in multi-year revenue certainty and margin visibility while the industry navigates an unprecedented supply crunch.
The reason Micron can dictate these long-term these long-term contracts is because they hold all the leverage with the hyperscalers. That's why they're signing and locking up for these contracts in the first place. Their high-bandwidth memory, specifically the the HBM3E and the HBM4 is completely sold out for the entirety of the calendar year 2026 and a massive chunk of the 2027 production is already spoken for as well.
But let's look at the institutional reality. I want to show you what the bears tried to do. If you take a look at this 5-minute chart, you can see probably hard to see up here, but this is where we started the day. Remember I told you yesterday we're starting to see a little bit of pullback at the end of of Wednesday's trading action.
We saw it follow over into the pre-market. We just kind of had this sense that we were going to see and see a bit of a pullback in the sector. There was a lot of noise in the marketplace just around the impact for memory prices and consumers. We saw it hit the halls of Treasury and Commerce Department.
I just felt like there was a lot of negative signals that were surrounding it. And frankly, we were probably due for a little bit of just healthy reset for the stock overall. But you saw it gap down violently like I mentioned. It shot significantly down and pushed all the way down here to the intraday low.
Let me pull that up for you. To the intraday low of 971 overall. High volume throughout the morning as well. So the bears, they definitely tried to push this down. It wasn't a slow grinding retail panic. This was a an engineer flush right at the beginning of the day. The stock hammered all the way down, like I said, to that 971.
But, a wall of institutional buy orders did immediately step in, and look at how the stock responded. Like I said, it got up to up to a 10 1022, I think, right about here, right in here. Actually, this high here got up to 1036 again before we had a little bit of consolidation, and then we saw some kind of that last 20 minutes or so of the market, we saw a bit of a flush.
Kind of probably some more algorithmic profit taking, just profit taking in general. People saw this massive flush right in the beginning of the day. They saw the stock rally. Quite frankly, probably got a bit nervous that we're getting some profit back. The stock was up to about 1030 again, maybe I should sell.
Maybe I should trim my position. I talked about it as last night, maybe even trimming a little bit about 20% or so. But, that's what I think we saw at the end of the day overall, as well, with Micron. You just saw a little bit of trimming. But, you have to ask yourself, what is the smart money doing right now?
And the thing that jumps out to me, you may have seen it as well, is when you take a look at kind of the Wall Street's top analysts and how they reacted today to the movement, we didn't see the the the the desks throwing a tantrum. Major institutional institutions like Susquehanna and UBS, they completely brushed off the noise and what we saw with Micron today.
They are holding firm on their elite structural price targets of of 1750 for Susquehanna and 1625 for UBS. So, think about that for a second. You have two major uh institutional desks that saw this flush today. They recognized that it's just noise. They are holding firm on their price targets of 1750 and 625.
The stock closed today under 1,000, 99 997. So, the most aggressive institutional models, they still see hundreds of dollars of pure fundamental upside from where the stock is trading right now. Wall Street is defending Micron. Why? Because the analysts realize that transitioning customers into long-term agreements isn't a sign of weakness.
It is the ultimate display of absolute pricing power. Micron is one of the only one of only three vertically integrated memory manufacturers on the entire planet right now capable of supplying high bandwidth AI memory. When a company is operating with these fundamentals and supply demand that we see in the market, a 7% reset, it's not a breakdown.
Guys, we need to change our mindset. This is not a breakdown. It is a gift-wrapped accumulation window before the hard numbers of their earnings print drop on Wall Street or just drop on the street on June 24th. It is a great opportunity, in my opinion, to buy the dip because I feel like we have significantly more upside to go with this stock.
So, that was what all my thoughts are on Micron, but I do want to shift over and just talk a little bit about what we saw with Broadcom. Take a look at Broadcom, down 12 and 1/2% today, a $60 drop. The stock ended at 419. We see in the after-hours it's somewhat stabilizing. It's down by about a quarter percent, just over a dollar.
If you look to the right, you can see the intraday low was about 403 overall. So, Broadcom suffered a pretty massive hit today overall. It officially closed at 419, and it battled that intraday level of 403. $60 drop. To a casual observer, they would assume that the earnings report that Broadcom dropped last night was a complete disaster.
But when you actually look at the data in the earnings, the results were a flawless master class in hardware dominance. So, I want to pull up an article that posted today in Barron's that just goes through those results in click in particular. If you take a look at the article, you see Broadcom had a record quarter, and it just wasn't good enough.
So, let's scroll through some of that. There's some key points down here that I want to call out. I'm pulling up and you can clearly see in the first bullet point that Broadcom's second quarter adjusted earnings were $2.44 a share. So obviously that beat guidance. Revenue was up 48% to 22 billion and the shares fell 6% after guidance and we saw another kind of fair shares fell 12%.
Sorry, this was probably a midday article that came out. But second quarter AI revenue, this is a piece that we need to focus cuz now AI revenue is 50% of Broadcom's business. It grew by 143% to 10.8 billion. Third quarter AI semiconductor revenue is projected to exceed 16 billion. And the other piece on there underneath you can see in that third column is that Broadcom, of course they design, we know they design AI chips for for the hyperscalers including Google and it's targeting a hundred billion in AI chip sales by 2027.
So these were not like weak earnings by any case. These were strong earnings across the board. We even saw their CEO Hock Tan, he raised Q3 guidance to a staggering 29.4 billion indicating that custom XPU chip chip pipelines for the hyperscalers are landing completely on schedule. So why did the stock get slammed?
That's the question and I think you have to think you have to talk about the whisper number trap that we see in the market because it was all related to Broadcom's software segment. Broadcom's software segment printed seven point just over seven billion. And while that was a 9% year-over-year increase, it missed the whisper numbers the trading desks wanted by a mere fraction of a percent.
Minor line software imperfection is a green light to liquidate shares and lock in profits after a massive run. That's a big part of the story cuz I said in the beginning, Broadcom has been on a massive run this past month. So this was definitely just a massive profit taking today locking in some shares with just a parabolic moves that this this stock has had over the past month.
The fundamentals remain ex-significantly strong though overall. And I think what we saw today with Broadcom, and what I want to pull up as well is like we saw a very similar sentiment that we did with Micron where, you know, the the analysts kind of stepped up. So, Morningstar, they released a blistering note after the market closed, completely exposing today's drop as a total market anomaly.
Not only did they maintain their bullish stand, but their their bullish stance, but their senior equity analyst, William Kerwin, he flatly labeled today's heavy volume sell-off an absolute overreaction to conservative guidance. And to prove it, Morningstar, they actually raised Broadcom's long-term value, their long-term fair value estimate to 650 per share, up from 550.
I want to jump back over and show you a few of the other kind of ratings that raised today for Broadcom. All today. So, you know, despite the massive changes we saw, couple things I want to highlight for you. First, if you look in your left-hand corner, you can see that there are 46 analysts that are rating Broadcom.
There's not one analyst that has changed his his or her perception and put the stock in a sell. We have 43 that are buy and and three that are hold. The consensus is a strong buy. The average price target is 486.85, 16% upside from where we're trading today. But look below, look at all the price target changes that you see right here on the screen.
So, we can go from the bottom. So, DA Davidson, you know, they moved up today to from 375 to 400. Stock is over that, but look at Oppenheimer, 450 to 535. Look at Bernstein, 525 to 550. TD Cowen picked up a new coverage on the stock at 500. And we're seeing BNP move from 600 to 640 all. So, Morningstar was just one of them, but look at all the other analysts that are still stepping in with strong conviction and support for the stock.
Morningstar also said that their internal models project that Broadcom's AI chip revenue alone, it is on track to compound to a jaw a jaw-dropping 200 billion by fiscal 2028. I'm going to show you one thing I want to pull up here. If I just show you this statement that that this analyst put out when they said 640.
I highlighted it in green for you here, but essentially they said Broadcom stock is down 14% unlimited near-term upside from a with limited near-time from AI sales and lower GM. We believe that this is short-sighted as AI compute and networking AI AI orders continue to accelerate that now support visibility through 28.
Additionally, we are confident in Broadcom's ability to maintain operating leverage as AI sales ramp. So guys, this this hasn't changed. I pulled those analyst ratings up and I pulled up that statement just to show you that there is strong conviction for this stock. Broadcom is comfortably compounding its top and bottom bottom lines at over 50% while maintaining gross margins in the mid-70s.
These analysts and these firms, they're not panicking. They're telling the whales, they're sending the signals out that we should be accumulating shares overall. But here's the ultimate takeaway for today's video and the absolute reality that you need to remember as investors. We all need to remember as investors.
The compute phase of the AI trade was just step one. We are now firmly in the physical architecture phase. You can buy all the raw processing power that you want, but if the physical system hits the memory wall or the connectivity wall, the entire cluster stalls out. HBM excuse me, Micron's elite HBM 3 architecture is one of the rare irreplaceable lifelines keeping the next-gen GPUs fed with data at scale.
Broadcom's switching fabrics stand as a gold standard for open ethernet networking capable of linking tens of thousands of those chips into a unified semiconductor. These are not speculative software applications. These companies are the physical gatekeepers of the entire global technology build out.
Today's pullbacks did not change a single item in the in did not change a single line item in their multi-year order books. Volatility like like this is simply a mechanical price of admission for trading the most expensive hardware cycles in human history. Let the momentum chasers panic sell the noise.
Smart money is watching the floors. It's trusting the data and it's holding the line for the hard fundamental numbers to take back control of the tape. But I want to hear from each and every one of you. How did you manage today's volatility with your own individual portfolios? Did you use today's flush to scale into Broadcom's dip or maybe scale into Micron?
Or are you waiting out the volatility before you have any new entry points or do anything with your portfolio at all? So let me know in the comments below, but also don't forget to hit that like and hit the subscribe button. I want you guys to be part of this community. Hope you enjoyed the video and I'll see you in the next one.
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