저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 실적 발표 후 주가 급락을 계기로 2020년 말 테슬라 주가를 추정한다. 테슬라 매출총이익률이 18.9%에서 25~30%로 오를 경우 매출 290억 달러 기준 EPS와 구글 PER 26배를 적용해 주가 약 282~497달러를 제시한다. 마진이 정체되면 약 67달러로 본다. 경기침체 시 대형주 방어, 테슬라는 투기적이라 주의하라는 입장이며, 부동산 투자를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome to another meet Capitol report where I report news and that makes you money by drinking coffee today we're going to be talking about Teslas stock price what is it going to be worth by the end of 2020 we'll go through those scenarios then we'll talk about stocks and not to own in a recession and then we're gonna touch on a bunny less eight in a retirement account what Tesla reported earnings yesterday that missed expectations and guess what happened to the stock price after that it auto piloted straight down and I took my Tesla and auto piloted straight home to listen to what Elon had to say for himself and so after a few hours of listening to Elon and reading Tesla financials I realized Wow Elon just said something that could be very good for Tesla stock if it comes true now I think it's helpful to understand what kind of company Tesla is and the easiest way to define this is by saying they make about seventeen point seven thousand Model S's and Model X's and over 77,000 Model threes so basically we're dealing with a company here that makes and sells model threes it's not even worth talking about the solar panels or the power walls we're just going to focus on cars specifically the model three the only thing the Model S and Model X are good for is increasing Tesla's profit that's it you may as well buy a Model 3 and if you bought a bottle as for Model X I still love you because I'm right there with ya now just a quick disclaimer everything I'm about to say could be totally wrong in speculation I am just a some dude on the internet who oftentimes walks around with don't sue me bro shirts so you might think to yourself there's a reason he walks around with don't sue me bro shirts because he's just some dude on the internet now with that out of the way let's talk about the money Tesla makes and what Elon just revealed so here's the scoop if Tesla sells $100 worth of stuff they're going to put 18.9 dollars aside as gross profit now gross profit is pretty much all the profit that they make before they hey stuff that they already had like research and development they already spent money on administration things like that what you really want to take away from that is for $100 they get they bring 18.9 dollars pretty close to the bottom line now Elon Musk in his conference call after the earnings report said his target and somebody else even jumped in and echoed that yeah this is exactly the direction they're going ilan target is for that number to go from 18.9 to 30% 30% first watches I mean quite likely that is for every $100 they take in $30 would go pretty close to the bottom line I'm gonna show you exactly what this does to the stock price and the numbers in a second but let me first say this is possible they're opening a new Giga Factory in Shanghai China which this was a total fluke but of the coffee cup that I'm drinking out of right now is the Shanghai coffee cup of our world tour coffee cup collection that we bought on sale at t.j.maxx are like nine dollars and of course Tesla is spending a lot of time and money trying to simplify their process to increase efficiency this is normal they're a newer company they're not clunky like a Ford or Chevy where it takes a lot to kind of change the entire assembly production they're still developing their automation their robots and all this kind of stuff so it makes sense that they think they could get their profit margin up by simplifying the process in fact here's a fun fact for you have you heard about the model Y which is like the baby model X well 70% of what it takes to make the model Y is already what the factories have to make the model 3 so you can see as they introduce more cars that just end up using the same parts their profit margin should go up now that's a pretty cool fun fact but fun fact aside let's look macro here for a second and see what Tesla's doing because Tesla is making a pretty cheap car right now for the money that it takes to build this think about the benefits Tesla has first of all competitors thinking about getting into the self-driving electric our business might be looking at Tesla going why the heck do I want to get into that money losing business what does that let Tesla do in the meantime get more market share have more control of electric self-driving cars and for every electric car that's on the market what happens Tesla's cameras are recording millions of miles worth of driving footage to help train their artificial intelligence computers to be smarter effectively using thousands of people around the world to create the strongest computer algorithm ever to exist I mean think about it where else can you get so much data put people into cars that drive themselves be the only company that has that ability and all of a sudden make it seem like you're losing money to everybody and what are you secretly doing you're potentially building an indestructible product now what I just said here is a little high P it's just something that hit my mind I'm like oh my gosh this is brilliant make it seem like you're losing money take control of the market with the cheap car then start reintroducing some more expensive cars the semis the pickup the Y and all this other stuff to increase your profit and then all of a sudden somebody wants to compete with you and it's like oh my gosh we can't even get close to your autopilot technology because we just don't have the mileage now who wants to go buy the autopilot Ford anyway let me give you my conclusions on some numbers and let's talk about the stock price now so right now Tesla is on track to make about 7,000 cars per week but once they open up this Factory in China that should go up to 10,000 cars per week so as long as people keep buying the car Tesla should be selling about five hundred twenty thousand cars per year that's incredible now currently they make about fifty six thousand three hundred dollars off every single car sale which if we just multiply those two numbers five hundred twenty thousand cars times the revenue per car sell we get to 29 billion dollars of revenue projected for 2020 now this is where we get to the fun part remember how Elon said we want to get to 30% going to the bottom line and right now they're at about eighteen point nine percent well let's be a little bit more chill and we'll go ahead and put us in sport mode but not ludicrous mode and we'll go through scenario one saying what if elan can get the margin once the Chinese factory opens they get things more smooth down everything's good to go what if we could get that margin to 25% what happened well this is pretty simple twenty-nine billion times about 25% leaves them with about 7.3 billion dollars in gross profit now they have to run the company and based on what they've previously been spending and me just being really conservative by adding a bunch to this and really trying to pad this number let's say it costs them about five point four billion dollars to run the company that's going to leave them with over one point nine billion dollars in profit in 2020 now we can really play with the numbers and see what happens see with a profit of 1.9 billion and 176 million shares outstanding every single stock of Tesla would earn about $10 and 86 cents this divided by their current share price which fell to two hundred thirty six dollars would give them a price to earnings ratio of about 21.73 which is roughly what the SP average is around 21 so this wouldn't be it out of the norm if they hit their production target and this sort of 25 percent margin target which remember is less than what Elon wants it to be he wants it to be in 30 percent come on Kevin just tell me what the price of the stock is gonna be okay okay okay so if the data we have what we can do is we can look at Tesla and say okay what do we think Tesla would be worth if we compared it to other companies for example Apple has a price to earnings ratio of about 17 Microsoft 27 Google 26 Amazon 100 Ford and Toyota are around 11 and so now we have two pink well where do we think Tesla would belong in these class of companies if it were making a profit well I don't think it's gonna have a crazy value like Amazon it is still a car company which it generally has a lower valuation however we do have Google which is also working on its self-driving division and Google's a pretty established company with a price to earnings ratio of 26 slaw would be kind of newer and so in my opinion Google might be a decent price to earnings ratio to compare Tesla to this is where the magic happens we take a price to earnings ratio of 26 which is what Google is and multiply that by the earnings per share that we just calculated we would get a stock price of 282 dollars by the end of 2020 now for it to make sense to buy this stock I think today you would have to buy it for less than $240 if all of these assumptions came true every time it's under $240 buy it in fact this is how I generally look at companies I got made fun of for talking up Tesla stock when it was like two hundred and four dollars and then went down to 195 and went down to 185 well while I was getting made fun of for me talking about Tesla during that time I was buying the stock at those prices so now trying to pat myself on the back I just realized you know what that's really cheap relative to expectations it's still a gamble so don't think any of this is a sure thing anytime you're looking at growth stocks and you're projecting things it's a totally speculation but wait a minute Kevin the title says Tesla stocks gonna double all right all right so now let's take the same data that we just used we're still gonna use Google as our comparison we're still gonna use all the same numbers that we had everything else is the same all I'm going to do is change one thing I'm going to agree with Elon and we're gonna go ahead and go into ludicrous mode here and let's see what happens if Tesla hits Elon Musk's gross profit margin target of 30% that was a mouthful let's just basically say what happens if Elon Musk is right if Elon Musk is right and we say this company is going to have the same price to earnings ratio as Google but not as crazy as one as visa has Microsoft or especially not what Amazon's price earnings ratio is just Google then by the end of 2020 Tesla share price should double to 497 point $88 per share if that's an area is going to happen in order to get like a 18 percent return over the next 18 months you would have to buy Tesla stock believing in alongs numbers for under 420 and then you'll make that 17 18 percent return if the price ends up doubling by the end of 2020 so notice how when you're going to buy the stock heavily hangs on what you actually think is going to change in the company if Ilan's right golly you should be buying Tesla all day long because it's so cheap compared to what Ilan's projection is that's why I call it ludicrous mode because I don't know I don't know if that's gonna happen so a lot of things can happen here but what's the last scenario that could happen what if margin doesn't go up what if all this production happens and they meet their sales goals but they can't get the profit margin up what if it stays at 20 percent instead of 25 or 30 percent well if that's the case and it ends up staying at that for the long run it becomes profitable but it trades for around Google's value Tesla is not gonna be a stock you want to buy today in fact it would probably only be worth about $67 that's because it would be trading for about two dollars and fifty eight cents per share times Google's 26 you get $67 now get this right now Tesla's earnings per share are negative that is every share is losing like a dollar 12 per share but while we're doing is we're looking at the production numbers and the trajectory of the company and trying to decide okay well where is it going to be by the end of 2020 and beyond and if Elon is right and it settles between 25 to 30 percent margin even by the end of 2020 this stock price with a reasonable valuation matching Google should be pretty good compared to where the price is now but it wouldn't be fair to you if I didn't tell you the massive assumptions that just went into these numbers it's important for you to know the biggest assumptions that make these numbers work these different scenarios are number one the margin if margin is screwed all of the numbers fluctuate wildly you saw it the other thing is how do we know how the markets going to value Tesla it doesn't make a profit now so it's hard for us to tell there are a bunch of short sellers is it going to be worth something similar to what Google trades for or is it going to be cheaper like what Apple sells for or will it sell for what Amazon sells for which would be insane we don't know the other thing is even though I padded the 5.4 billion dollar number to run the Tesla company with like 600 million dollars of money I just threw in there gosh I wish I could just like throw around 600 million dollars and go I just got to throw that in there you know that could be wrong too you know what if Panasonic goes out of business and all of a sudden Tesla is like oh we gotta open up a new research and development business and create our own batteries that would be that and so there's a lot of risk in this and this is one of the reasons that I really like real estate compared to stocks why well quick example when I buy a house like I did this year I bought two of these same deals already this year and I'm trying to buy more if I buy a house for $450,000 that I know needs $50,000 worth of work and I know the moment I finished that work it's worth $600,000 guess what I'm doing I'm not speculating I'm looking at Wow everything in this neighborhood is selling for six I could buy it for 450 I only have to put 50k work into it like it's that's really simple math what are the worst-case scenarios well the market changes well okay the same thing could happen with Tesla - I didn't even mention that what if we go into a recession well then all the speculation is out of the window right the nice thing about owning what I call wedge real estate is when you buy wedge real estate you know you are getting an asset today for cheaper than it's actually worth cheaper than its intrinsic value that's what Warren Buffett always looked for as a value investor Warren Buffett probably wouldn't invest in Tesla because it's speculative that is it's almost impossible to figure out what Tesla's intrinsically worth right now so if at any point you want to take the leap of faith and download all of the knowledge that I have to help you buy things below their actual intrinsic value for a very inexpensive price like $260 you should consider checking you can get with 20% off using wedge 100 and then I'll teach you everything I know and I'll mentor you in our private live streams twice a week now let's talk about what kind of stocks you want to be holding and what kind of stock so you don't want to be holding in a recession in my opinion in a recession the stocks that are going to survive the best are going to be reasonably priced large cap stocks they're companies with massive market values like Microsoft Google and Apple they have very reasonable price to earnings ratio remember we said Apple was like 17 and the sp500 was 21 on average that's good not saying that this is a speculation that Apple's gonna soar in value or whatever I just think Apple would be relatively protected in a recession sure its values going to get hurt is no kidding people are gonna buy less Mac's in a recession but it's a safer place then in my opinion investing into something more speculative like Amazon or Tesla where the price to earnings ratio is very very high or infinite like uber see right now everybody's wondering are we going to go into a recession and so much of what we hear is just straight-up speculation and I guess so is life but the bottom line is if you can insulate yourself by buying quality investments especially if you can get them below it market value you'll end up being a lot more protected than somebody who's speculating so bottom line if you think we're going to go in a recession within the next few years don't buy Tesla stock probably would only recommend buying Tesla stock if a you're ok with like the 30% chance that Tesla's just gonna go bankrupt and B you don't think there's going to be a recession within probably at least the next five years because remember indicators start turning sour a few years before a recession I just don't think we've gotten to that point you where we're within a two-year range of a recession just not seeing that point yet and I can't wait to announce it when I see it now because I want a recession I mean I guess I could buy stuff on sale then if there's a recession but because I want to be the YouTube channel that breaks it now one more thing I got a lot of comments from you folks wondering if you can invest in real estate in an individual retirement account to avoid taxes and the first part to that answer is in my opinion you shouldn't really worry about taxes and real estate because there are so many ways not to pay taxes and real estate but if you were going to do an individual retirement account the answer is yes you can problem is I don't recommend it because it's really hard to get financing in a retirement account unless the retirement accounts somehow creates a lot of profit to where you can actually get commercial financing fine you could do it but you could throw the whole 30-year fixed-rate loan and the conventional financing we see out of the window it just isn't gonna happen and in such a scenario I don't think it's worth the headache or the cost to try to invest in an individual retirement account honestly you should be straight-up looking at how am I gonna get my 30-year fixed-rate financing how am I going to get into real estate that's the biggest thing is how am I gonna get started and worrying about all these other fancy complicated tax strategies in that it's just not worth it because you end up doing nothing you know I get so many people that leave me comments or DM me and I respond to as many of you as I possibly can so many folks will say things like hey you know I want to get started but I want to start my LLC first so it's like generally you just never get started if you start thinking like that there are other ways to protect yourself anyway there you go folks I hope you enjoyed an SME Keven report I hope you also enjoy this a style of a video making that I've been doing lately with news that is focused on reporting information that helps make you money so thanks so much I appreciate you ]
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