저자: ETFInvestments채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
SMH와 SOXX 두 반도체 ETF를 비교. SMH는 단일종목 20% 캡으로 엔비디아(약 18%)·TSMC·ASML 비중이 크고, SOXX는 5종목 8%·나머지 4% 캡으로 마이크론 등 메모리·장비주 비중이 큼. 2001년 이후 누적수익은 SMH 3300%, SOXX 2800%로 둘 다 S&P500을 크게 상회. 올해(YTD)는 SOXX가 약 88%, SMH가 약 65%로 앞섬. 과거 14년 최대낙폭은 두 ETF 모두 약 44~45%로 유사. 진행자는 SMH를 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Since 2001, SMH is up over 3300% and SOXX is up over 2800% and both of them have absolutely crushed the S&P 500 over that stretch. But right now, the smaller fund is actually beating the bigger one and I personally own the one that is underperforming on purpose and let me tell you why. Today, we'll be going over where SMH and SOXX sit in the semiconductor ETF space, the one rule buried in the index that makes them completely different funds, what each one actually holds, how they performed and then my honest take on which one I own and why.
Now, let's get into it. Now, just a quick background before we compare these two because it explains why semiconductors are such a big deal right now. Semiconductor chips have been in everything for decades. It's in your iPhone, it's in your car, it's in your laptop, it's powering the cloud. Now, for most of that time, semiconductors were treated like a boring industrial commodity.
Then AI and LLMs happened and the whole sector went parabolic. Big tech has spent over $200 billion on the AI infrastructure last year alone and most of that money flows directly into chip companies. Nvidia went from a $300 company in 2022 to over $4 trillion today. Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures roughly 90% of the world's most advanced chips.
ASML is the only company on Earth that builds the machines that make those chips and this entire AI boom runs on a handful of companies with monopoly-like positions. So, if you want exposure to all that, a semiconductor ETF is the cleanest way to get exposure and the two giant ETFs in that space are SMH and SOXX.
Now, SMH is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF and it's the bigger of the two at about $71 billion in assets under management. SOX is the iShares Semiconductor ETF that sits around $42 billion. Now, these are the two funds that most retail investors actually choose between. So, let's get into what makes them different.
So, the structural difference that drives the entire comparison comes down to a single rule in how each fund is built. SMH tracks an index that allows one stock to make up as much as 20% of the whole portfolio. SOX on the other hand tracks a completely different index with a much tighter cap. On SOX, the top five holdings max out at around 8% of the portfolio each, and then every other holding is capped at only 4%.
And that one specific structural difference is the engine behind everything else in this video. When you let a single stock reach 20% of a single portfolio, that fund will lean heavily on whoever that biggest winner is. And then when you cap everyone at 8%, the fund stays a little bit more spread out across a lot more names.
And addressing the fee war here, SMH charges 35 basis points and SOXX on the other hand charges 34 basis points. So on a $10,000 investment, that one basis point is about a dollar a year. So it's really nothing. That's not really much of what I'll be arguing about today. But the cap rule is the thing that actually matters, and you can see exactly what it produces the moment you look at the holdings.
Now let's dive into the holdings of SMH and SOXX. Starting with SMH, Nvidia sits about 18% of the fund. Taiwan Semi is around 9%. Broadcom and a few others fill out the top here. Now the top 10 holdings make up roughly 70% of SMH. So when you buy SMH, you're making a concentrated bet on the biggest and most dominant names in the chip world.
So once again, Nvidia, Taiwan Semi, and Broadcom carry a huge chunk of this ETF. Now SOX is built differently. Its biggest holding is Micron at about 9%, and the weights are tighter from there. We have AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, and Intel all sitting at that 6 to 8% range. And the top 10 holdings in SOX is closer to 58% of the fund.
So SOX spreads your money across the whole semiconductor supply chain instead of loading up on the top few like SMH does. And so this creates two real differences that are worth understanding. The first one is exposure to Taiwan Semi and ASML. Now these are arguably the two most important companies in the entire semiconductor industry.
Once again, Taiwan Semi makes almost every single advanced chip on the planet and ASML literally has a monopoly on the equipment that makes those chips. SMH gives you about 13 and 1/2% combined in those two holdings and SOXX gives you closer to 6 and 1/2%. So if you specifically want heavier exposure to those two monopolies, SMH leans into them about twice as hard.
The second different runs the other way and this is memory. Now Micron is the biggest play and memory chips at the moment and it's the number one holding in SOXX is about 9%. In SMH, Micron is around 6%. Now SOXX also carries more weight in the equipment makers like Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA.
So if you want broader exposure to memory and the equipment side industry, SOXX gives you more of that. So the simple way to think about it is SMH is a concentrated bet on the kings of the industry and SOXX is more of a balanced bet on the whole industry. Now both are completely legitimate ways to own the semiconductor space.
They just do it in different ways. Now let's talk about how these two have actually performed over the past couple years because the numbers tell a really interesting story. Going all the way to back to 2001, so over two decades of head-to-head data, SMH is up over 3300% and SOXX is up over 2800%. Both funds have roughly tripled the return of the S&P 500 over that time, which is massive for any sector or industry.
Now over the past five years, SMH is up 410% while SOXX is up over 320%. Both are absolutely fantastic gains, but at the moment SMH currently wins that long game. But here's where it gets interesting though because this year SOXX is actually winning and it's not that close. SOX is currently up about 88% year-to-date while SMH is up about 65% year-to-date.
That's a pretty substantial gap in SOX's favor. And this is the part that most people miss about heavy concentration is that everyone talks about how concentration helps you when your biggest holder is running wild. And of course that's true. So when Nvidia was screaming higher in 2023 and 2024, SMH benefited massively from that big Nvidia weighted.
But on the flip side, concentration can work against you when your biggest holding cools off. So lately Nvidia has gone a little bit sideways and because it's such a huge piece of SMH, the rest of the fund can't pull its weight to make up for it. Meanwhile, SOX on the other hand can keep climbing without Nvidia leading the way.
Memory and equipment makers have been extremely hot and because SOXX spreads its bets across the broader industry, all those winners add up. No single name is big enough to hold the whole fund down. And that is essentially the entire reason why SOXX is beating SMH by over 20% this year. Now one thing that surprised me when I dug into the risk side, you assume that more concentrated funds fall out harder in the downturn, but over the last 14 years, the worst drop that SMH had was about 44% and for SOX it was about 45%.
So they were basically identical. So when the whole industry sells off, both of these ETFs fall together. Concentration didn't actually make SMH meaningfully riskier on the downside. Now if you're getting any value out of this, go ahead and hit the subscribe button. I break down ETFs like this every single week.
So here's my actual take and I'll tell you exactly where I land. So I currently own SMH and it started about 5% of my portfolio, but it's grown to around 10% recently just from appreciation. And at the moment it's up over 120% for me. Right now, you can see my full portfolio for free at Blossom Social and I'll drop the link in the description below if you would like to follow along.
So here are the two reasons I picked SMH and why I'm choosing to hold it. So the first reason that we already covered is that I actually like the heavy exposure to Taiwan Semi, as well as ASML. SMH gives me about double the weight in those two monopolies that SOX doesn't. And the first reason is one that we already covered, which is the heavy exposure into the two major monopolies of Taiwan Semi and ASML.
SMH gives me about double the amount of exposure to those two monopolies compared to SOX. And the second reason is of course Nvidia weight. Nvidia is the center of the entire AI trade. SMH gives me 18% exposure compared to SOX, which gives me about 7%. So, if I'm going to bet on AI, I want the bet that actually counts.
So, at the moment, I prefer to having that heavy concentration into those three big names, because I truly believe they are the center of this whole AI buildout. Now, of course, there's a real case for SOX, and if you saw it earlier in the video, SOX is beating me by this year, and it's not even close.
This ETF is much more balanced, and it carries more memory and equipment exposure, and no true single stock can sink it the way Nvidia could sink SMH. And honestly, while watching SOX run, while I was holding the one that's behind, does give me a little bit of FOMO. But either way, both funds are doing fantastic.
Mine is up over 120%, so I really can't complain. But seeing the other one do even better in this stretch, it stings a little bit. So, what truly comes down to is that if you want concentrated exposure on the two major monopolies, as well as the biggest name in the game, Nvidia, SMH is your guy. And then, if you want a more balanced ride across the whole industry with more memory and equipment exposure, SOXX is your choice.
So, which one do you own, or which one are you looking to choose? Is it SMH? Is it SOXX? Is it both, or is it something else? Drop them in the comments, and let me know. And if you want my full ETF breakdowns every week, I have a newsletter, as well as my Instagram and Twitter account. Everything is linked in the description below, and I'll see you on the next one.
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