저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 부채 급증과 통화 발행으로 인플레이션 압력이 커지고 있으며, 금리 상승과 긴축 과정에서 주식·채권이 함께 하락하고 경기침체 위험이 높아진다. 구조적 배경: 현재 세 가지 전례 없는 힘이 작용 중이다. 첫째는 대규모 부채와 이를 화폐 발행으로 monetize하는 것, 둘째는 좌·우 포퓰리즘과 극심한 부의 격차에 따른 내부 갈등, 셋째는 미국 중심 세계질서가 약화되며 생기는 강대국 간 충돌이다. 1930~45년 시기와 비교한다. 화폐 메커니즘: 통화를 늘려 생활수준을 올릴 수 없기 때문에 화폐 가치가 떨어진다. 현금은 구매력이 줄어드는 안전하지 않은 자산이며, 실질수익률이 음(-)인 채권도 매도 대상이 된다. 달러, 유로, 엔 등 주요 통화 모두 가치 저장 수단으로서 약하다고 본다. 금리와 유동성: 연준이 저금리와 풍부한 유동성을 장기간 유지해 자산가격이 낮은 금리 전제로 짜여 있다. 인플레이션을 상회하는 금리 수준이 필요하다고 계산하며, 이는 시장과 경제에 과도하게 높은 금리가 된다. 금리 상승 시 주식과 채권이 동시에 하락하는 것을 보고 있다. 수급과 경기: 재정적자로 국채 공급이 늘고, 연준도 1.1조 달러 규모의 부채를 매각할 계획이다. 연금 등 민간 투자자는 인플레이션으로 손실을 보며 매도하고 있어 매도 불균형이 생기고, 이는 민간 신용 축소와 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다. 현 국면: 긴축이 효과를 내기 시작했지만 단기금리 인상은 아직 본격화되지 않았다. 성장과 인플레이션 사이의 상충관계가 매우 어려울 것으로 본다. 투자 함의: 현금이나 명목 부채자산 대신 구매력을 유지하는 자산으로 이동하라는 메시지이며, 영상 제목처럼 금 매수를 권한다. 리스크: 포퓰리즘 대립과 지정학적 충돌이 심화되면 정책 대응이 더 어려워진다.
다듬은 글
it affects everybody you know and so i started studying in history and i found out the same thing happened on march 3rd 1933 roosevelt did the exact same thing for the exact same reason leading to the exact same result and so studying past periods that didn't happen in my lifetime like we haven't been through a war before and we haven't been through a civil war or we haven't been in the circumstances so the three big things that are happening in our lifetimes that we have not been through before are the creation of an enormous amount of debt and printing of money to monetize the debt that's number one and so we'll talk about inflation and where we are in that cycle and i'm like a mechanic i'm not ideological i'm just like what are the cause effect relationships how does that dynamic work mechanistically but it produces inflation uh the second but very interrelated to this is the large internal conflicts that we are having populism of the left and populism of the right and values differences that is producing a conflict a populism means that some representative who will fight for me on my cause against the other side that means not compromise not be in the middle but to fight to win at all costs and when we have that populism brought about also by the largest wealth gap differences largest opportunity gap differences and so on that type of conflict i have never seen in my life but that also happened in the 19 30 to 45 period and so i needed to go back and then study that over time and then the third is the great power conflict when 1945 when this world order began as all world orders there's a war there's a dominant power the dominant power sets the rules and when the dominant power sets the rules uh then you have a period of peace and prosperity and so the united states in 1945 had 80 of the world's money it had half of world gdp it had a monopoly on the military power and so we came into the american world order that gap that power gap has shrunk to be approximately equal with the other side and we're having a great power conflict so you have to go back to that period of time and i've seen that period of time happen repeatedly when these three things happen repeatedly it's a very dangerous set of circumstances so we are in a position on the financial one to be in a position where you cannot raise living standards by raising money and credit in other words if you increase money then the value of money is going to go down and one man's debts are another man's assets and so when they get negative returns by holding a debt asset they're going to sell that debt asset and that produces a problem and that's over a period of time and so the romans for example put less gold into gold coins and so you saw it in its way and that certainly produces kind of the inflation because you can't raise living standards by printing more money so we have that going on and so there's that dynamic of uh where is the storehold of wealth the purpose of a currency is two purposes a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth a storehold of wealth means you buy its debt and its assets and you can save in it and people believe that cash is a safe investment but they're seeing that what happens is it's losing buying power and it will lose buying power so they start to realize it's not a safe investment of inflation over the last year about 8 interest rates were nothing and so there was an 8 change in buying power that kind of changes and sort of reinforces the inflation cycle we pay too much attention to one currency in relationship to another currency and not enough attention to the fact that those aren't the choices it's a choice for transactions but it's not a choice for storeholder wealth so if you're holding european euros and euro-denominated debt and you're getting a negative interest rate or they're about and the same is true in japan and you're not making up with inflation none of those are good and like in the 30s they all depreciated they all went down in relationship to goods and services and other asset prices so what you see is all the currencies along those lines are sort of tied to each other and they're bad storeholds of wealth and that's why you see moves to other assets it pays to borrow and or if not borrow but put your money into assets that maintain buying power so you see it happen in all the different ways so look at whether what you're holding in the form of that cash denominated and that'll be a debt instrument that's how you hold the currency in order to have a storehold of wealth look at its real returns the fed understands and not central banks know that when inflation is undesirably high and the economy is relatively strong you put on the brakes and that when the reverse is the case you put on the gas and they don't understand i think monetary inflation enough what has happened is that because they put on the gas so much have allowed interest rates to be so low as i say in many cases negative interest rates and they've made liquidity so abundant that not only didn't you have to pay interest on your debt but you didn't have to pay principal on your debt because they would have interest only loans and they would have low covenants like it's easy to not meet your debt requirement companies borrow individuals borrow interest only loans and when there's no interest rate mean basically means the stuff is free you can buy houses you can buy all sorts of things on that basis and the world has adapted to that and they did that at a very low real interest rate a very low interest rate relative to inflation and then they printed a lot more of that money and so on and so inflation is going up so mechanistically what that means is now we have a lot more debt and we have an economy and a markets financial markets that the pricing is structured based on those very low interest rates and that amount of liquidity so when you go through the calculations when i go through the calculations and i i figure um a high enough level of interest rate to provide a decent real return is for a holder of the debt is much too high of an interest rate for the markets in the economy but you're going to have an inflation rate that's above the interest rates and that's not going to be desirable so investors want to sell that and you can see it as interest rates rise you can see its effects on markets you could see the effects on the capital markets so you see the stock market going down while the bond market is going down and that means most everything that people own practically are going down practically because most people are in stocks and bonds that kind of thing the fed's trade-off is going to be very difficult right now they have a very restrictive monetary policy plan i judge that by the supply and the demand for credit so the federal government is going to run large deficits so that means they will have to sell debt they'll sell tertiary bills and bonds the federal reserve is planning to sell 1.1 trillion dollars of debt also private investors are inclined pension funds and so on they're losing money while there's inflation so they're losing buying power they're selling and there's a selling imbalance and that selling imbalance means because it has to balance with the buyers that means a contraction in private credit which means a recession so as i look through this we're in a tightening phase where it's beginning to bite but it's not really it's barely begun because the actual rises in short rates have barely begun it started the other things are rising and that trade-off between growth and inflation is going to be very difficult
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