저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 연준은 인플레이션을 잡을 수 없어 저금리를 유지할 수밖에 없고, 이에 따라 미국 고평가 성장주는 하락하며 해외 저평가 배당주와 금·은으로 자금이 이동하고 달러는 급락할 것이라는 주장. 연준 정책 비판: 실질금리는 명목금리 인상에도 불구하고 하락해 연준이 긴축을 말하면서 실제로는 완화적 정책을 쓰고 있다고 주장. 양적완화와 국채·MBS 매입이 계속되고 있으며 이는 인플레이션을 악화시킨다고 봄. 연준 목표 해석: 연준의 목표는 물가안정(가격이 오르지 않는 상태)이지 연 2% 상승이 아니라고 주장. 2%도 CPI 기준의 '가짜 데이터'로 낮게 측정된 수치를 근거로 저금리를 정당화했다고 비판. 부채 문제: 미국 국가부채는 약 3조 달러이며 저금리(약 1%)와 단기 국채 롤오버에 의존. 금리가 10%로 오르면 이자만 연 3000억 달러 이상 불어나 정부가 지급불능 상태가 될 수 있다고 주장. 연준 자산 약 8조 달러의 장기 국채도 금리 상승 시 평가손실로 연준 자체가 지급불능 위험에 처한다고 봄. 딜레마 및 결론: 인플레이션을 잡으려면 대폭락이 불가피하고, 인플레이션을 방치하면 초인플레이션이 온다는 진단. 결국 연준이 후자를 선택할 가능성이 크다고 전망. 투자 전략: 연준의 작은 금리 인상 예고만으로도 버블 종목이 붕괴했으며 많은 성장주가 50% 이상 하락했고 더 떨어질 것이라고 봄. 나스닥은 연초 대비 약 13~14% 하락, S&P500은 약 9% 하락한 상태로 언급. 반면 해외 시장, 특히 유럽·아시아의 저평가 배당주는 강세. 현금·채권 회피: 인플레이션 환경에서는 현금과 채권 모두 가치 훼손 위험이 있다고 주장. 고평가 미국 주식(적자 기업, 높은 PER)에서 빠져나와 저평가 해외 가치주로 이동하라고 권고. 달러 전망: 시장이 연준의 인플레이션 통제 능력을 의심하게 되면 실질금리 하락으로 달러가 급락할 것이며, 결과적으로 인플레이션과 경기침체가 동시에 오는 최악의 상황이 될 것이라고 전망. 금·은: 달러 붕괴 시 금과 은 투자가 유리하다는 입장을 견지.
다듬은 글
if the fed allows rates to rise to one percent but if inflation continues to accelerate which it likely will real interest rates will actually be falling even as the fed is slightly raising nominal interest rates so they're actually pursuing a more stimulative policy while pretending to tighten and of course the fed continues to print money it continues to monetize government debt not only have they not stopped the prestas they're still cranking them up they continue to buy u.s government bonds and mortgage-backed securities now the fed is saying that they're going to wind that down but they haven't actually done it yet so they're continuing to make this inflation problem problem worse but here is the bigger problem the only way the fed was able to justify these artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing was under the pretense that an absence of inflation gave them the leeway to do that in fact they actually had the gall to claim that inflation was too low when it was below 2 even though it had they measured it honestly it would have been above 2 but using the rigged data that they had they were able to point to an inflation rate of 1.5 1.6 and claim that that wasn't enough that we needed two percent that their mandate was two percent uh cpi which of course it's not their mandate is price stability so stable prices are prices that are flat they don't go up if their mandate was two percent increasing prices every year then their mandate wouldn't be price stability it would be prices going up by two percent a year but they kind of redefine their mandate to a rising cost of living and then they claimed that the cost of living wasn't rising fast enough and therefore they were going to pursue this easy money policy in order to deliver a more substantial annual increase in the cost of living now apart from the pure nonsense of that argument because too little inflation was not a problem in fact any inflation is a problem and the more you have the bigger the problem but now that inflation is triple or more two percent there is no way the fed can justify maintaining the artificially low interest rates because even if they raise interest rates to one or two percent they're still artificially low and there's no justification for that if you're going to claim it's because inflation was too low now inflation being too low was never the real reason that was just the excuse that the fed gave the only reason that the fed kept rates so low was because we had such a gigantic debt bubble that those low interest rates were the only thing keeping us afloat if interest rates were allowed to normalize we would have a far worse financial crisis than 2008 we would have all the big banks that we bailed out failing we'd have a crash in the stock market we have a crash in the real estate market and not only would the the private sector have difficulty servicing its debts if the fed were to allow interest rates to go to a natural level but the united states government would also be in the same predicament maybe even in a worse predicament the us government would be forced to default on its national debt we've got a three trillion dollar national debt right now and it's financed at one percent and it's not financed at one percent with 30-year government bonds it's financed with 90-day t-bills the government has to constantly roll over this low-yielding debt in order to keep the financing at one percent well one percent of 30 trillion is 300 billion well what if interest rates went up to 10 which is half of what they got to in 1980 under paul volcker 10 of 30 uh of 30 trillion is three trillion there's no way the government can come up with an extra three trillion dollars each and every year to service the national debt so the only way to keep the government uh in the position where it can pretend it's solvent is to keep interest rates artificially low but the fed couldn't make or couldn't tell the markets the truth about why it was keeping interest rates low so it came up with a lie about inflation being too low well what's the new lie going to be because now inflation is too high in fact inflation is now the number one problem on the public's mind the public is dealing with sticker shock every time they go to the supermarket the gas station and that's only going to get worse and this is the worst possible problem for the fed because there is no way to actually fight inflation without creating a massive financial crisis and putting the u.s government into insolvency in fact appal himself admitted that we are on a fiscally unsustainable path but he says that we can handle the debts because interest rates are low all right well what happens if interest rates aren't low we can't handle the debt and the same thing for the fed the fed would be bankrupt if interest rates went up based on its eight trillion dollar balance sheet which is loaded up with longer-term u.s government bonds that would crash in value were interest rates to rise so the fed itself would be insolvent so the reality is the fed is caught between a rock and a hard place there is no way out uh there's only a bad choice and a worse choice the the the bad choice is to fight inflation let interest rates go up and let everything collapse the worst choice would be to continue to create inflation to avoid that and postpone the consequences of hyperinflation but unfortunately that's likely the choice that they're going to make and so what do investors need to do based on this new reality because even though the fed is still going to be providing cheap money it's not going to be cheap enough to sustain the bubble the air is already coming out of the bubble merely based on the fact that the fed is talking about tiny rate hikes in the future has already collapsed a lot of the bubble stocks a lot of these stocks are down 50 or more and they're going to continue to fall in the meantime look around the world as the nasdaq you know as i'm speaking i think the nasdaq's down about 14 i think it's rallying this morning so maybe 13 this year s p was off about nine percent foreign markets are up especially if you look at the value stocks we're seeing huge rallies in dividend-paying stocks in europe and asia stocks that have been left for dead for years stocks that were used as a source of funds people are now piling into those stocks as they liquidate these overpriced assets because you can't go to cash right now in an inflationary environment like the one we're in now if you want to get out of overpriced u.s stocks companies that don't earn money that trade on a dream that have high pes or no ease at all and they just you know trade on on hope and prayer as people are selling these stocks because the momentum is no longer there they can't go to cash because inflation is going to destroy the value of their cash they can't go to bonds because they have the same inflation problem with bonds only worse because they can't get their cash until the bonds mature and they can take a huge loss on the bonds if they want to sell prior to maturity as ultimately long-term interest rates go up so where do you go when you get out of overpriced u.s stocks well you got to go into underpriced foreign stocks which basically allows you to accomplish two things you get out of u.s stocks and you get into uh better valued companies that actually make money right now not potentially in the future but that make money right now making things selling things generating earnings and paying dividends but you also get out of the us dollar because the dollar is going to collapse when people understand that the fed has no ability to control inflation and inflation is going to continue to erode away the value of the dollar what we've had recently is high inflation numbers have actually caused people to buy the dollar because they expect the fed to successfully fight off that inflation with high interest rates and it's the anticipation of those higher real interest rates that have been supporting the dollar well when currency traders realize that even if the fed raised rates they won't do it enough to stop inflation and that real rates are going to be falling even as nominal rates are rising then the dollar is going to fall through the floor and we're going to have the worst of both worlds inflation and recession
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