원문 보기
so let's just dwell on the 2008 experience because that was remarkable actually what oak tree did so lima just collapsed you had 10 or 11 billion dollars on the shelf ready to deploy and you did deploy at the rate of half a billion dollars a week right 15 weeks right and you weren't immediately looking it wasn't immediately looking like you were right because markets were still falling so that was a difficult period and i think you even perhaps had to go back to co-investors to convince them that you should continue perhaps raise more money did you ever have a crisis of confidence and think that perhaps you weren't getting it right what was what was the mindset at that time well max i i i don't remember having a crisis of confidence of course if you buy and then the price goes down and you buy more and the price goes down further if you're not questioning and a little scared then you're a you know i i think that one of the important things that i have realized and incorporated into my thinking is that you're never going to get it exactly right sometimes if we're lucky we know what's going to happen we never know when so if you accept that then it kind of gets you off the hook that means you buy today at nine it goes to eight you buy more you buy at eight it goes to seven you buy more you don't say oh my god i bought it nine it went to eight i must be a and i must be wrong you understand the nature of this and you know warren buffett says i like hamburgers and when hamburgers go on sale i eat more hamburgers so you know if you did an analysis at nine and if the analysis was sound and it goes to 8 you should buy more now of course in our business there's always a question of when does resolve turn into hubris and there's no easy answer but it always goes back to to rechecking your analysis and ultimately to your analysis being correct which of course you i mean it's your analysis you always think it's correct but you have to you have to have be very vigilant and and you have to believe that it's correct for good reason but you know i wrote a memo you probably since you know them all you know i wrote one in i think it was february of 16 called what does the market know and see what what happened is in 16 the market got off to its worst start in history and it was really collapsing and uh so i wrote a memo called on the couch because i i said that every once in a while the market needs a trip to the shrink and that it was really the victim of irrational fear so i went on bloomberg the next day usually when i put out a memo i go on bloomberg the next morning and the hosts kept peppering me and saying well stocks are collapsing isn't that a sell signal isn't that a sell signal so i ran went back to my office and i wrote a memo that day called what does the market know and that this is really a very important concept the market is supposed to be efficient know everything we know it doesn't know everything and i believe there are times when it doesn't know anything so you know i said you can't let falling prices be a sell signal because falling prices are the equivalent of investments being put on sale how can they be a sell signal if anything they're a buy signal etc so i went through this whole business on that subject and then i said and you know what however when we you know bought high-yield bonds in 1990 when they were collapsing and when we sold into the tech bubble in 99 and when we bought uh in the period you're describing etc i i never want to give anybody the impression that we don't do it with trepidation you know you can have great advantages you can have a strong intellect and you can act on the basis of your intellectual analysis and you can control your emotion but that doesn't make you right and there's always the possibility that you're wrong and we must bear that in mind and since we're only human when we do these things when we buy in october 08 it terrifies us but if you think about it buying at the low point has to terrify you i guess there's a sense of and i think you've you've said this that having raised money seeing the valuations that you saw it was a case of if not now then when yeah and yeah well well look uh a couple days at lima went bankrupt on the 15th and as i recall i put out a memo on something like the 18th or 19th entitled what now or maybe it was now what by the way believe me if you weren't there it was impossible to figure out what was going to happen it was impossible to prove that the financial system of the world either would or would not collapse in general we can't prove anything about the system uh in the future and that's particularly true when we're going through an event that's never occurred before so there was nothing intelligent to say about the future of the financial system at that time so what made us buy well number one objectively speaking the things we were buying were extremely low prices we were buying the senior debt of companies that had been the subject of lbos one or two years earlier and we were buying the senior most debt at prices where if the companies turned out to be worth a third or a quarter or a fifth of what these great buyout firms had paid a year earlier we would have broken even and we figured out well we said well sometimes like when you go to buy a car and you negotiate with the car salesman you know you say well i i probably could have gotten another five percent off right i don't know do you negotiate car prices in this country okay good so so so you sometimes you come away and you say i probably gotta could have gotten another five percent off but did you ever say well i probably paid too high by a factor of four you know i bought that car for 60 000 if i'd only negotiated a little i probably could have paid 15.
you know so similarly we concluded that the great private equity firms who had done all that due diligence probably did not overpay by a factor of three four or five but then the other thing is we reached the conclusion that what i said what i wrote is if we buy today and the financial system falls apart doesn't matter what we did but if we don't buy and the financial system doesn't fall apart then we didn't do our job so we should buy and that was it's that's about as profound as it got you
Comments 0