저자: PaulThomasInvesting · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 니오(NIO)는 2021년 4분기 실적 발표 후 주가가 급락했으나, 저평가 상태이며 캐시 우드(ARK)의 신규 매수가 단기 반등 가능성을 시사한다는 분석이다. [캐시 우드 ARK 동향] - 캐시 우드가 테슬라 약 1억 4,700만 달러어치를 매도하고 니오 약 42만 주(약 850만 달러)를 처음 매수했다. - ARK는 최근 중국 전기차주(샤오펑, 비리비리 등)를 저점 매수해 왔으며, 니오 보유 목표는 명시되지 않았다. - 캐시 우드는 2021년 2월 니오를 중국에서 승리할 배터리 교환 기업으로 언급한 바 있다. [실적 및 재무] - 2021년 연간 매출은 약 99억 위안(약 15억 달러)으로 전년 대비 약 50% 증가했다. - 순손실은 약 21억 위안(약 3억 3,600만 달러)으로 컨센서스를 크게 하회했다. - 현금은 24억 달러 수준으로 2020년 말의 두 배 이상에서 줄었으나, 총자산은 82억 달러로 2020년 54억 달러보다 증가했다. - 2021년 말 약 20억 달러를 조달했다. - 재무 곤경 가능성은 MacroAxis 기준 96% 이상으로 제시되었으나 발표자는 즉각적 위험은 아니라고 봤다. [인도량 및 가이던스] - 2022년 1~2월 인도량은 총 15,783대에 그쳤다. - 3월 인도 반등과 월 1만 대 복귀를 기대하며, 2022년 연간 최대 19만 대 인도가 가능하다고 봤다. - 중국 전기차 업체 전반의 1~2월 인도 부진은 니오만의 문제가 아니다. [마진 및 밸류에이션] - 2021년 4분기 차량 마진은 20.9%로 상승했다. - 주가매출비율(P/S)은 약 2배로, 2021년 대비 크게 낮아졌다. - 모건스탠리 목표가는 66달러에서 34달러로 낮아졌고, 중국 르네상스증권 등도 30달러대 중하단 목표가를 제시했다. - 현재 주가는 약 19달러로 목표가 대비 상승여력이 제시되었다. [차트 및 주가 흐름] - 2021년 7월 50달러 이상에서 하락 추세가 이어졌다. - 2022년 1월 4일 33달러에서 3월 초 14달러 미만까지 하락했다. - 발표자는 이 수준이 기업 규모 대비 지나치게 낮다고 판단했다. [리스크] - 반도체 공급 차질과 생산 리스크가 남아 있다. - 미국의 중국 기업 상장폐지 압박(HFCAA) 가능성이 있으나, 감사 미준수 3년 누적 조건상 즉각적 영향은 없다고 봤다. - 자금 조달 및 현금 소진 속도가 핵심 관찰 포인트다. [출연자 전망] - 리스크 대비 보상 구조가 매우 매력적이며, 시장이 생산 가이던스에 과잉 반응했다고 판단했다. - 주가가 단기적으로는 하락 추세지만 중장기적으로 저평가 구간이라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
what's up guys and welcome back to the channel so today i want to talk about neo stock it has been a huge week for neo after dropping to the lowest share price in nearly two years neo have just released a q4 and full year 2021 earnings report but then on friday came a very surprising development cathy wood of arc invest decided to dump shares of tesla and open a position in neo stock with this development i am left wondering why now why has cathy wood decided to buy neo stock right now so in this video i will look at the reasons for this and the reasons for the share price dropping this week we have new analyst price targets too which i will look at later on and i will look at the charts to assess what is happening and what is going to happen going forward if you like this content can you smash the like button it literally costs you nothing but it helps me out so much and it shows me that you want to see me create more neo-related content as always this is not financial advice and i'm not a financial advisor but if you do enjoy this content or find any value in this video show your support for the channel smash the like button and hit that subscribe button now let's get into it with the very latest news happy wood trims 147 million dollars from tesla stake and initiates position in neo this is the first time that eric invest has bought into neo stock and although arc has built significant stake in tesla in recent months eric has been piling up shares in neos chinese rivals x-ping and bid as we can see here from friday's eric invest trading information kathy sold off a big chunk of tesla stocks from from three of her etfs now this is likely due to the fact that tesla has just went above one thousand dollars per share for the first time since january and the fact that tesla is up over thirty percent in the last two weeks but with this freedom cash atti has added to a bid position with 80 000 shares and 600 000 shares of roblox which is huge but then for the very first time arc have bought a sizeable chunk of neo stock for the air q fund to the amount of 420 000 shares which is about 8.5 million dollars of neo stock so this is a very interesting development for arkhan vest if you follow arc or subscribe to the daily trade information like i do then you will know that during the second half of 2021 hattie began a huge sell-off of eric's chinese stocks however over the past few months kathy has been heavily buying the dip on chinese evs as we can see here ark has been buying up x-ping stock since december and it's the same with bitco who were also backed by warren buffett's berkshire hathaway now eric holds about 900 000 shares of x ping about 410 000 shares of bid limited and now they have 420 000 shares of neo2 so it would be very interesting to see how much neostar cathy will buy over the coming weeks but the question is why is kathy wood buying neo stock now neo stock has dropped to its lowest price since mid 2020 and there is a number of reasons for this which i will look at but the fact remains that this is a very different company than it was back then 2020 was the year that see neo avoid bankruptcy and begin to scale up production and sales but the sales for the whole of 2020 was just 43 000.
sales last year was much closer to 100 000 and then there has been partnerships as well as vast expansion in fact back in february 2021 kathy wood referred to neo as a battery swapping company that will win the day in china so although kathy wood rarely talks about neo she has clearly been keeping an eye on this stock over the past few years but on thursday neo released their full year 2021 annual report and although met expectations regarding deliveries and revenues the company missed on overall net loss and eps falling well short of analyst estimates this coupled with the fact that earlier in the week analysts china renaissance securities and morgan stanley had set low price targets in the mid to low 30 range morgan stanley in particular slashed its price target by nearly 50 percent down from 66 to just 34 but it's worth remembering that the current price is only 19 so even these low price targets are still nearly 100 upside from the current price now i'm sure that at this point most of you have already seen the annual report so i will just go over this briefly and then discuss the impact of some of the main concerns looking at neo's income statement we can see that the company has total revenue of of 9.9 billion yen which is about 1.5 billion us dollars this is about 50 increase year over year so that is good but we should probably be expecting more to be honest and then there is an overall net loss of 2.1 billion which is about 336 million dollars for the year again this is about a 50 percent year-over-year increase but a company's health is not measured by its income statement so let's look at the balance sheet neo has total assets of 13 billion and total liabilities of 7 billion this is a strong balance sheet for a company that is making this kind of losses the cash figure of only 2.4 billion dollars does concern me neo had more than two times this amount of cash on hand at december 2020.
however that being said the balance sheet is a bit stronger now than it was in 2020 with total assets of 82 billion versus 54 billion in 2020 but the main talking point from this report was not the financials neo stock tanked by 10 on friday mainly due to neos q1 2022 delivery forecast which was considered weak neo delivered a total of just 15 783 vehicles in the two months so far it is expected for a strong rebound in march regarding delivery volume for neo and a return to delivering about 10 000 evs a month it is also important to highlight the delivery volumes in january and february dropped off for all chinese ev manufacturers not just for neo neo could still achieve up to 190 000 ev deliveries in the full year 2022 as new models launch now this is an extract from an article over on seeking alpha written by the asian investor and it is well worth a read so there is a link to this in the description for anyone who wants to have a read of this full article commercial results including higher vehicle margins indicate strong business momentum neo stock price has not shown lately that neo's business is going well but it really is vehicle sales surge 49 year over year what is especially impressive is that despite neo's production problems vehicle margins are increasing rapidly in q4 2021 neo's vehicle margins increased to 20.9 percent meaning neo is becoming more profitable on a per-unit production basis while neo is still generating losses ev startup is making significant progress and moving towards profitability in 2023 and neo has become significantly undervalued neo has become too cheap i believe and the stock continues to represent deep value at a price to sales ratio of just 2x especially considering that neo traded at much higher market cap to sales ratios in 2021 as the firm launches new models neo is facing some promising catalyst that could drive the share price higher as well risks with neo neo has short term timeline and production risks computer chip supply issues affected factory output in the global auto industry in 2021 and there is still a risk for neo and other ev manufacturers neo lowered its delivery forecast in 2021 due to the strange semiconductor supply situation but this is not the only risk that applies to neo right now which i will look at in just a moment so stick around for that after i look at the charts first and the author's final thoughts i fully agree with the risk reward looks extremely attractive here for neo the market seemed to overreact to the company's production guidance and supply chain issues and the resulting 10 drop is not deserved looking at the charts we can see that the stock has been dropping steady since going over 50 dollars back in july 2021 and looking closer since the beginning of the year neo has been on a steady downward trend moving from 33 on january 4th down to as low as less than 14 earlier in march but i do feel that this is too low for a company of this size but as i have said there are some risks involved with neo first of all as i talked about in the financials neo has got just 2.4 billion in cash for a lot of companies this would be loads but in the ev industry this might not be enough and this does come after recently raising two billion dollars near the end of 2021 macro macroaccess.com rates the chance of financial distress at neo to be over 96 now this is very high and although i do not know how this has been calculated i assume this is by looking at the company's balance sheet the income statement and the company's cash flows and although i don't think that neo is in any immediate risk this is something that does need to show signs of improvements in the coming months the other concern is this the us is moving closer to delisting chinese firms now this article was written on friday so this is not me dragging up some old crap trying to spread food actually it's quite the opposite look at this how soon could chinese companies be delisted nothing is going to happen this year or even in 2023 which explains why markets initially took possibility in stride under the hfcaa a company would be delisted only after three consecutive years of non-compliance with audit inspections so this does not affect neo and i've spoken about this in previous videos however things change so quickly sometimes regarding china so this is something that all investors really need to be aware of so that is my analysis of what i think but what do you think of neostock right now and where do you think the share price will be in the coming months or in the next five years drop me a comment and let me know what are your plans for this stock are you buying holding or selling and if you enjoyed this video make sure to smash the thumbs up and subscribe to the channel if you're new and have a blessed day
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