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Should I Sell $TSLA for Exposure to SpaceX and XAI?

InvestAnswers Clips · 2026-02-08 · 유튜브 시청 7,670 · Board Views 7 · International

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Next question is from house noise. And by the way, I speak about kaggers a lot, but it's very very important to have that realistic expectation. In the age of AI and AGI, I don't even think 14% is going to cut it for you. I think you're going to need a lot higher because a lot of crazy things are going to happen all at once.

Very important to remember that. Uh house noise. I found the new ETF from Baron. Baron first principles ETF. It is 15% SpaceX, 13.5% Tesla, 4% XAI. I think without a big premium. The other stocks are reasonable. I'm thinking about deploying 10% of my portfolio in this ETF by selling my Tesla exposure.

I'm now 40% Tesla, 40% Bitcoin, 20% Saul. Is this a good way to have some exposure to XAI and Space X? Interesting question. Well, as we learned this week, two big things. First of all, Tesla now owns just about 1% of XAI, which is a good thing. So, if you are a Tesla shareholder, you automatically own XAI.

I think XAI is very undervalued. should be worth at least 800 billion benchmarking against uh open AAI which I think is a house of cards. Also there's rumors that XAI and SpaceX will merge which means if you hold Tesla, you hold XAI and soon you'll hold Space X. But the interesting thing to think about though is the IPO for SpaceX is coming is going to be valued at 1.5 trillion.

If they bundle in XAI it'll be 1.8 trillion. And that means it's pretty fairly valued. That that big chunk of asset. Is Tesla fairly valued? That's the question you have to ask yourself. And I've done many videos on Tesla versus SpaceX and the impact of AI and the TAMs for these different assets. Nothing nothing nothing nothing gets close to the TAM and the exposure and profitability from Tesla's 14 different lines of business.

Nothing. And I've looked every day. I look I look for better riskrewards, better upside over the next five years, 10 years. I cannot find it and I look all the time. But let's get into this question. Let's look at the Ron Baron portfolio. Couple of interesting things here. Yes, Tesla is now 13.03%. Uh what did you say it was?

And 13 15%. 13.5% 15. No, it's it's a little bit different. So, here I've got 13.03% Tesla. There's two SpaceXes, 9.13% and 5% call it 14% combined. And then XAI is 3.6%. So, adding them all together, you get drum roll 31.03%. So, yes, you're getting a big exposure to Musk Industries from buying this fund.

So, I like the way you're thinking. The question is what's the faster horse? You always have to ask yourself what has more upside. Now the other thing that I would like to look at is what is in the rest of the bag and this is the industry concentration across the other assets. Elon Musk ventures 31% financial services 16%.

As we know a lot of financial services will be ravaged by crypto. We know that. But still they're strong and there are some that might do very well like fintech plays. We shall see. Leisure and hotels, 14%. I don't know about those. I don't think it's a sector I personally would want to be invested in.

Software and tech, uh, I think software is going to be ravaged. Professional services ravaged. Insurance ravaged. Real estate and data, we'll see. Healthcare will be fine, but it's only 2%. And then aerospace, 2% cash. Entertainment. So, it's a very mixed bag. 30% is very good. the rest I'm not sure.

So this is what sometimes turns me off. Too many assets, too many holdings, not the very strong ones. But if you do need some exposure and you believe there's an awful lot more upside for XAI and SpaceX, which I do not, I think that other than XAI, I think SpaceX is relatively fairly priced, it may not be a good investment.

So the way I'll look at it is this. And again, your idea is not bad. But what will outperform over the next 5 years? And I want to be very clear. I look at things in 5year cycles, 3 to 5 years. I believe Tesla will have a much more explosive next 5 years than SpaceX. Now, 2030 to 2035, when we start putting data centers in space, that will be the time for Tesla Silicon to shine and SpaceX.

Who's going to win that 5-year epoch? I'm not sure. The next five years though, I am pretty sure Tesla will win. So all my models, all of them say Tesla will outperform SpaceX and XAI and smoke all the other industries. I put my money where my mouth is. Also, as a Tesla shareholder, you now have the XI exposure which I mentioned before, but this is the big wild card.

I wrote a Substack on this a couple weeks ago about the silicon exposure. AI4 self-driving cars better than humans. AI 5, make perfect cars and enhance Optimus. AI 6 drive Optimus and data centers. Okay, this is the dojo 3 type story. And AI7, space-based AI compute, but AI7, we're talking four years out, maybe a little longer.

So, be ready for that. That's the very colorful future. And my theory is if they can pull off this new silicone, these new inference chips, these new AI chips that work in data centers, work in humanoid robots, work in cars, and you can stick them in space. That combo could be worth more than Nvidia.

That's something to think about. And that's one of 14 lines of business that Tesla has. So that's why I'm very bullish on Tesla. [bell]

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