저자: SibiSekar · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 타이밍은 불가능하니 떨어지는 주식을 싸다고 분할매수하지 말고 장기 관점에서 가치 기준으로 투자하라는 주장. 버핏·하워드 막스 발언 인용. ITC-Britannia 비스킷 소송 뉴스 소개. 사이언트(Saint)는 이익 정체·마진 낮음으로 회피, 뉴젠소프트웨어(Newgen)는 ARR 기반 반복매출 장점에 관심 표명하며 추가 분석 예고.
다듬은 글
Hello fellow investors, in this video I am going to share some important updates with you . I'm going to discuss some ideas on how to change our investing behavior in the stock market . I will try to share with you, in simple language, the ideas expressed by Howard Marx and Warren Buffett . There is an update on ITC .
You can definitely watch that. Many people were asking about Newgen and Saint in the comments section. I'm also going to discuss the valuation of that company with you. I am sharing this video with the hope that you will find it useful . Let's go into the video. Before we look at our S &P valuation analysis and update on ITC, let's first understand our timing of the market .
Let's first understand what timing the market is. In other words, if we invest with a mindset that is 100% certain that a stock will only go up from here, it is called timing the market. It is an unwritten law that no one can time the market . Whether you look at the great legendary investors like Warren Buffett, Peter Lentz, Howard Marx, or John Bogle, the reason they became such successful investors is not because they timed the market .
They spend too much time in the market . That's why many people say that time in the market is more important than timing the market . We have heard Peter Lin say this often. We need to understand that timing the market is the key to investors restricting their investment activities. Let's hear what Warren Buffett has to say about market timing .
I never know what markets are going to do there has never been a time in my life. I know what markets are going to do over a long period of time they're going to go up. in terms of what's going to happen in a day or a week or a month or a year even ah, I never felt that I know that never felt that was important.
I will say that, in 10 or 20 or 30 years, I think it will be a lot higher than that. Apart from this, I will share two or three more videos with you. I will share with you what Warren Buffett said and what Hourmarks said . Many people try very hard to catch the ball in a falling stack. That means a share will fall from ₹100 to ₹50.
They don't buy it with the expectation that it will go for ₹40 or ₹30, even if it's cheaper at ₹50 . Because it's cheap at 50 rupees . They would have waited for a bigger discount even if it was still cheaper at 40 rupees . They don't mind buying it for ₹50. But there is no requirement that it be ₹40 .
If it recovers from ₹50 , we understand that you are missing a wonderful investment opportunity. We've been researching a company for a long time . It will have significant downfalls . Now it will be at an attractive valuation. But if it falls a little further from here, I'll buy it even cheaper, so I'll leave it at that.
If you're lucky, it'll be cheaper. But even there, you probably wo n't have the mindset that it's still cheaper. If you're unlucky, it will start going up from where you thought it was cheap. Then you are missing the investment opportunity. Havar marks would have explained this beautifully. Let's ask what it is .
We are not market timers. we don't get in get out get in get out very hard to do that on a regular basis with success and i'll tell you one thing that we never do since we're not market timers we never say it's cheap today but it will be cheaper in 6 months so I'm going to wait because you could be wrong and you often our so if it's cheap today we buy it because cheaper we buy more and then of course we only need for ours to be correct so mark like I said we should market timers market our time panna try pannikkitte uttomna nammalla oru invesmentta correcta samayathu la pannave moodii.
If it's cheap, I'll buy it. If it's cheaper, I'll buy it. Let's invest in the attitude of tomorrow. That's why we plan our funds accordingly . Imagine that after a downfall, we dumped all our money into it without a plan and no way to generate funds for the future . These kinds of emotions are triggered when you don't have any money to buy things when they fall.
If we had waited a little longer, we would have come to a mindset of "let it get cheaper." In subsequent investments, we will wait for the stock at 300 to fall to 250, and if it falls to 250, we will wait for it to fall to 240 . We never make a proper investment plan until the very end. When it goes from 300 to 290, if it goes to 250, we can buy it and book it at a loss.
It will go from 290 to 350 rupees again. We would have had many experiences like this. Don't try to time the market. Just because you bought a 10% expensiva doesn't mean it won't give you returns in the long term . So, even if we buy at 10% expense, it doesn't matter. We should approach our investments with an attitude of whether it's cheap or not.
Let's listen to what Warren Buffett has to say and then move on to our market updates. But people with their shocks, they think that the stock knows more than they do, when the stock goes down, they say the sake is telling them something, you know, there was telling me is get more from my money, but they they take it kind of refereelves you know me versus the stock and ever guess back when I pay I'm going to sell it stock isn't care what you paid the stock doesn't care that you own it, you are nothing to the stock, that stock is everything to you, and you remember you pay 10 13.
therefore the stock should get a 10 before you sell it but there is nothing about the price action of the stock that tells you whether you should keep owning what tell you whether you should keep owning it is what you expect the company to do in the future person the price which is selling now compared to the other opportunities of business that you think you know equally well and make that same comparison that all warn Let's remember not only next week In the future, when making our investments, we should avoid timing the market and look only at valuation.
Let's try to invest based on our research. I hope this will be useful for all of you. Many people have been asking in the comments section about catching the bottom, and they have also been asking to buy exactly the stock as it bottoms out. I've shared this video with you so you don't have to find it yourself .
I hope you find this useful. Now let's see what the update is on ITC. They have filed a case against ITC Britannia . ITC is not only in the cigarette business, but also in many business segments such as personal care, snacks, paper, and agriculture . They were seeding a cheesy cracker biscuit called Wausers.
We all know that Sunbeasts are owned by ITC, so now Britannia has filed a case in the ITC court alleging that they are packaging their newly released biscuits like Sunbeast Cheese Vouchers. You can go to Google and do an image search. I don't know much about them, and this is something that happens often with these types of products .
So I can't personally figure out what IDC is going to gain by filing a case here. Now Britannia has the same type of biscuits and coffee in the same packaging . IDC came forward and filed a lawsuit claiming that the main color palette, visual layout, and design elements were identical . Whether this case is successful or not, we'll have to see as we go .
I don't know what IDC gains from this. This is big news that everyone has shared. ITC is very serious about its food business. This is a good indication that they are also closely monitoring other sectors. This is a news piece amount that I am sharing. So I hope their report wo n't be affected too much .
Now let's look at science first. Since Saint is focused on semiconductors, there are very few companies in India that are in the semiconductor business, so Saint has the potential to be an attractive business for many people . Even if you look at it at face value, it may seem like a cheap business. There are 21 trades .
If you look at their earnings growth, it's very impressive . Let there be a historical timeframe . Let the timeframe be the last three years. Let there be a shorter timeframe. They have only grown their earnings per share by 5% . If we took their P ratio and looked at the historical chart, we would see that their average was trading around 15.
Because we don't see that much growth in terms of earnings for them yet . Now there are 21 billion trades . Their semiconductor business suddenly picked up in the future . If their order book can generate as much revenue as they say and significantly boost their earnings, there's a chance this could turn out to be a good investment .
Before 2024, it was trading at ₹2200 . It's almost 50% correct now. I am very concerned about their margins. Their net profit margin is in the single digits at just 6.72%. Maybe they're making too much capital expenditure, or maybe they're making too much operational expenses, so their profit margins are very modest.
Their gross profit margin is 89%, which is commendable. Their operating profit margin and net profit margin are very low. I also read the management's guidance. I looked at it last summer, but I still haven't seen Deep Dev's earnings report. Let's see the guidance. No full-year guidance, management only gave that H2 margins would be better than H1 margins .
Not only that, they have improved the quality of the pipeline . They mentioned it as if they were ready to execute . They have mentioned that Medium Town Girls will not reach 15% EBITDA . Even if they bring in 15%, their margins from here are not going to show much improvement. So Saint Might Be a Very Long-Term Play, and We Can't Know for Sure Whether It Will Be 100% Successful or Not .
If you were a player who really had a lot of expertise in the semiconductor business or the engineering technology here, and you had full confidence in the future of this company, then it could be a very good investment. But when earnings are on a declining basis like this, for example, you should look at their net profit every quarter .
They have a very stagnant net profit every quarter . They also saw a significant decline in the last quarter. Not only that, but even though you've been watching them year after year, there's no significant growth in their business. The company, which was on a roll until 2024, has started to decelerate again since 2025.
Maybe it's too late to get a cab which is very expensive. There are chances that they are spending more now to generate more revenue and earnings in the future . But from my point of view, I don't have that much competition here. I don't feel like venturing into the Indian semiconductor business just yet .
Are you holding the sign or not? For what reasons are you holding? Tell us in the comments section whether you feel comfortable with the valuation here or not. From my point of view, I have decided not to focus on either depreciating EPS or very minimal growth EPS companies for now . That's why I avoid science.
Newgen Software is a very attractive business in any case. There is a lot of negative sentiment surrounding the business of providing software as a service to sauce paste businesses . Newgen, like the one who gave it a try, has been posting a slightly disappointing earnings report for the last two or three quarters.
After March 2025, their earnings will not be picked up much. But I'm still confident about the new one. His stock is in the 3rd place. I would have discussed in a video that this is changing in attractiveness when I was around 675, almost 27-28 B. I told you that I would try to discuss this in detail in another video.
But I haven't gone into this business in depth yet due to lack of time . When you look at valuation wise, they seem to be changing very quickly, following historical trends. They are now almost at fair value. Looking at the long-term time frame, if you look at the last 5 years, you know that they seem to be available at a discount.
What I find even more interesting is their recurring revenue. Since they sell their software to their clients on a subscription model, their revenue remains solid year after year. There is something called annual retained revenue. That is, they say ARR. How much revenue they generate this year will be carried over to next year.
It's going to be rescheduled for next year . It's a bit too much for them. Even if you look at their market capitalization sales, they are trading at a loss above average . I personally believe that the butt sauce base companies will take a beating in a few days . Even if you are looking at the software business, be it Service Nova or CRM, or if you come and have Utopia, everything has come and bought some footholds, even if they are in different places, I personally believe that these sauce paste business models will buy footholds in a few days .
Let's take our sales and margin and see. They have been maintaining margins at almost double digits. We're going to improvise this. They gave us guidance. They have also proven in the past that EPS can grow well in the long term . There are many opportunities to do so in the future. So if you are very patient and you can hold on for a longer time and you don't mind short term pain, read on .
So, if you were someone who could come and handle the price fluctuation in the short-medium term, I would definitely start studying this company in more detail in the next one or two weeks . This is something that has been postponed for a long time . I'll share a deep dive into the latest news about Newgen Software .
I will share with you whether I am going to invest in this or not . I definitely won't do it in Saint . But I'm still thinking about new software, so I'll share it with you. In this video, we looked at our market timing . We've heard everything Warren Buffett and Howard Marx have to say. Please remember that.
Whether we invest in independent stocks or mutual funds, our first investment is to learn how to tweak our behavior. Even if we pick a company that can give 20 to 50 times the returns from the world's best company, if we cannot show the right behavior, we will definitely not be able to get that 50 times return.
When we make multi-packers in our own homes, we will be in a situation where we cannot make multi-packers ourselves . We should learn to stay in the market, we should have time in the market, we should time the market. Please keep this in mind. We had seen the news piece about ITC and we had also discussed the news and science .
I hope you enjoy this video . If you found this video useful, please like and share it. Please support this channel by subscribing . Thank you so much. Hello fellow investors, please do not take any of the companies discussed in this video as stock recommendations . I can't pay for anything, buy call, whole call, sell call, according to the regulations .
I hope you understand this. Please make an investment decision only after doing your own research and due diligence . Finally, consult a good financial advisor and make your decision. Thank you so much.
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