저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2020년 4월 기준 S&P500의 V자 반등과 조기 회복을 강하게 주장함. 결론: 주식시장은 강한 회복을 예고하며, 3개월 내 사상 최고치 재도달 가능성을 제시. 시장 회복 근거: 2787 부근(약 50% 회복)은 과거 1987년·2009년 패턴상 강세장 초입 신호이며, 과거 하락 속도 기준 모델상 6주 하락 시 3주 내 절반 회복, 이후 하락 기간의 약 3배 기간 내 신고가 도달이 예상됨. 경기 V자 회귀 근거: 코로나 사망자가 예상보다 적고 정점이 빨라 봉쇄 해제가 앞당겨질 것; 실업수당 청구 1,600만 건이지만 소득 영향은 개인소득의 약 0.3%에 불과; 외식·소매 등 노동집약 업종은 재가동이 빠름; 과거 주식 바닥은 실업수당 정점·소비심리 바닥·GDP 바닥보다 선행함. 소형주: 하이일드 채권은 연준 지원을 받으나 여전히 취약, 신흥국 증시는 미국 재개 전까지 반등 제한, 소형주는 미국 대형주 대비 열위로 보며 대형 S&P 종목 우위를 예상. 정책: 정책 당국의 재정 부양이 이례적으로 빨라 하락 심화를 막을 수 있다고 평가. 업종 투자 전략: 사회적 거리두기 수혜주(온라인)보다 피해가 컸던 에피센터 업종(호텔·카지노·항공·항공우주, 외식 다든 등)을 매수하라는 조언. 인건비 절감 효과가 크다고 봄. 리스크: 일자리 회복 실패 시 해당 전략이 맞지 않을 수 있음을 인정하나 신념 유지.
다듬은 글
for more on this though and how it pertains to the market action we've been seeing play out interesting moves there potentially an all-clear sign from one of the largest I guess loudest bullish voices that we have on Wall Street me join us now Tom Lee punch-drunk Global Advisors managing partner and head of research joins us on the Google hangout and Tom interesting that you've been tracking the way more quickly than ever really kind of fell into this bear market we look at history and you're saying that's reason to believe that the upside rally actually getting back to where we were before the story it should also be relatively quick as well what's the level you're watching right now and should investors be buying this as something more than just a bear market route yeah I think investors should realize that the stock market is you know discounting information so we can't tell it what to do and the fact that it recovered 2793 it's a big deal because that's a 50% recovery of this crash from February to March 23rd and if you look back at 1987 o - or even a 809 when the stock market had recovered half of its losses it was already deep into a bull market recovery so I think the move today is pretty decisive and I think it just shows you the PlayBook that you have to use right now is not your common sense you can't say oh uh everything's maybe bad so everything's has to go down in in a at the end of a downturn the stock market recovers way before fundamentals turn so I think that's what your viewers have to keep in mind yeah I mean that's that's kind of the counterintuitive miss of what you're raising here right because you would think all right if we're so quick historically had come down they think about peak to trough I mean the S&P 500 is off oh is it 33 percent in just a matter of weeks here right when you look at it I mean you expect oh man things must be backward skiing record unemployment numbers here so things are Tara short level you would think that it would need to take even more time to recover but that's not what you had predicted when we were back towards that bottom you went back and looked at the data and said all right we fell over that time of six weeks therefore recovery should only take about half that time if you look back in history and now here we are basically three weeks the day later and we're back retracement look almost so what does that say here about now look in q3 q4 later on in the year you know well I think it's important I think you bring up a good point you know we a few weeks ago we looked at the tent declines really in this in the last two centuries of 30% of the stock market and there's a lot of symmetry you know so that if the speed that you fall tells you how quickly you recovered half your losses and actually how long it takes to recover your full losses and back then it said if you fell over six weeks you'd be back to 2800 buy it within three weeks which really shows history is really still a good guy that same model says we should be making all-time highs in roughly three times the amount of time it took the fall which means we fell over six weeks sometime in July August September we may be back at all-time highs and I know it sounds insane and I know everyone's our only their eyes but you know what we've already recovered half the losses in what was really what history says should have taken place half you know in three weeks that's kind of I mean it's it's a view here now but this this is after we've already kind of rally back here right and that's kind of the other crazy part of this is that you made that call that it would play out exactly this way basically when we're at the bottom right if that is the bottom to play out I mean that that's would have been even more insane to think about it so I mean I guess I would only make you a little bit more confident in your call but whose book get back to all-time highs as insane as it sounds by q3 here but I mean technicals are sighing what fundamentals underlying all this would make you even more confident in that - because we keep seeing detention record unemployment claims what kind of would be the impetus is that say actions are clearly enough to overwhelm it I think there's a lot there's someone I would say I can think of five reasons this is happening so again I'm not trying to tell the stock market what to do but I'm saying the stock market is telling us a fierce recovery is probably coming and I think a couple things that are really important to keep in mind number one I do think we're under shooting on the healthcare crisis I mean the deaths are coming in far lower than expected and we're peaking a lot sooner and remember the faster we end the crisis the faster we can get back to work I think another important thing to keep mind is and this is a tragedy but if you look at the income effect of the claims that have been filed in the categories so far it's about 0.3% of total personal income even though it's 16 million claims it's a tiny fraction because you remember we have an unfair economy there's just so many rich people then know that the income effect is quite small the third thing to keep mind is labor intensive account but businesses are really easy to restart a restaurant if it already has its lease and it has its equipment and it already has its approvals by City Hall remember Chipotle can open restaurants quickly then rehiring people can be really quick so I think that this markets telling us that the economy is gonna be pretty v-shaped and look back at every bottom 87 own I know 274 stock markets bottom before jobless claims peak stock markets bottom up afford consumer sentiment bottoms it always bottoms it bottoms a a year ahead of GDP so if the stock market's reeling instead of saying Oh everyone's really crazy and they might be I just think it's telling us we've already discounted the worst Tom Heidi here not to play devil's advocate but if we're taking a look at certain aspects of the market specifically the small caps I mean they've had a pretty good week but for a while now they've been underperforming market and a lot of folks look to it to sort of find direction with where the economy goings in the back case necessarily saying that there's a v-shape ahead well you know small caps are correlated to really three markets one is high-yield I mean high yields really really tough right now so if I have to say what is your risk being to constructive you know high yields is it's is tough but it's getting help from the Fed the second is emerging markets has a high correlation to small caps and emerging markets isn't gonna go anywhere until the US turns back on and the third is that you know small cap stocks aren't as strong as US blue chips I mean you'll look these US S&P large caps they're just gonna be bigger winners after this right I mean after this more assets are coming back to America US consumer was strong before they're not taking as big a hit as people think they're gonna come back strong and then you know I actually think the stimulus came really lightning quick which is so good and you know I I think policymakers have done a pretty good job and that's a big deal that they usually so late in a cycle they're coming in really early so maybe this is showing you policymakers can stave off deeper decline yeah real quick before we let you go to I know you're highlighted we highlighted your note on the show on Tuesday looking at some of these companies specific stocks that had been hit the hardest and those might tend to be the ones that would rebound the quickest as well we're thinking about this you mentioned labor being a key element of that and we look at the restaurants I mean a lot of those we're the epicenter of where the pain was you can look at Darden Restaurants as a key example if all what you're saying is true are you still convinced that those would be good places to put your money despite all the risk if n doesn't come to fruition yes um so I think that people need to use the o8 playbook which is they have to run into the fire and buy the epicenter of the crisis because social vik social distance victim stocks didn't do anything and the government and policy makers aren't gonna punish Cher for that they got hit the hardest but they're also beneficiaries of high unemployment because labor cost is the biggest expense for them as you pointed out like Darden Turk yeah they might have like a thirty thousand dollar market cap per employee so if they can actually rehire skilled people at lower cost it accrues hugely to an equi share just a two percent reduction in salary in hiring tree hiring cost is like ten percent to the equities so it's a big deal and again I'm not trying to be insensitive because it's I'm actually probably sounding insensitive but I'm saying that you know wait you had to buy what got wrecked and what got wrecked in this cycle it's the hotels casinos Airlines the aerospace these are gonna be better companies on the other side and as you point out a lot of that has to do with with the fact that the government was quick to bring in aid here to to hit so these companies and make sure that they are able to function as well but tomley I mean right now at least this stands we look at that retracement level what you called we're sitting there right now above it twenty eight hundred on the S&P so we'll see what happens with the second part of that call potentially all-time highest by q3 but for now accurate as you are thanks again for coming I appreciate it yeah thank you yeah you too hey investors sac
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