저자: AlessioRastani · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인이 고점 대비 약 50% 하락했으며, 발언자는 2017년 버블 붕괴 경고가 현실화됐다고 주장하지만 앞으로의 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다. 과거 경고 이력: 2017년 12월 약 15,000~20,000달러에서 버블 붕괴를 경고했고, 2018년 4월에는 하락을 오히려 교훈적 기회로 봤다고 회상한다. 2019년 흐름: 2019년 6월 약 14,000달러 고점 이후 최근 약 6,500달러까지 하락했다고 언급한다. 군중 심리 비판: 과열 구간에서 SNS의 극단적 강세 댓글이 많을수록 반대로 움직일 가능성이 크다는 시장 심리 논리를 강조한다. 트레이딩 원칙: 추격 매수를 피하고 시장이 내 가격대로 올 때까지 기다리라는 Charlie Burton과의 과거 대담 내용을 인용한다. 리스크 관리: 출구 전략과 리스크 통제 방법이 없는 투자자가 대부분이라고 지적한다. 학습 메시지: 2000년 닷컴 버블 때 자신도 고점에서 기술주를 샀다고 고백하며, 실수로부터 배우는 것이 중요하다고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
how does unless you help you well my worst fear on Bitcoin has finally come true so before I tell you exactly what I mean by that let me just give you some context as you can see here the price of Bitcoin now has dropped almost 50% from its highs so that was the highs it made back in the summer in June 2019 just near 14,000 and you can see since Stan is pretty much we were pretty much down 50 percent as a matter of fact just recently it hit the lows there of near 6500 just near 6500 recently we hit that level now I don't know about you but this drop in the price of Bitcoin here I think it's made a lot of people feel a bit like this yeah exactly now I want to explain to you now why I think my worst fear on Bitcoin has finally come true you see guys two years ago almost two years ago now I posted a video in fact let me show you that video right here okay so this is that video that I posted in December of 2017 before the bubble burst as you can see right there posted an 82 December 2017 and this is what I showed in that video you see guys in December of 2017 as I'm sure you remember the price of Bitcoin was surging above 15,000 getting close to 20,000 and we warned we said at the time as you can see in that video say look this Bitcoin bubble is about to burst we had a signal back then a major danger signal that we could have another major crash like we saw in 2013 and 2014 when the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly back then and yes guys as I'm sure you can imagine nobody was listening to our warnings back then I know you were listening but of course most people were not so as I'm sure you know the rest is history the press a Bitcoin pretty much peaked just near 20000 and then dropped significantly so what happened was a few months afterwards in April of 2018 I posted another video which as you can see here and in that video I said why the Bitcoin crash is a good thing so why would the Bitcoin crash be a good thing well here's what I said in that video I said look okay so if had its drop in the price of Bitcoin but actually let me just go forward a little bit actually it might be a good thing because it will teach lesson form people an important lesson on risk and it might actually help people to learn to respect risk now I got to tell you guys when I look back at this video I have to laugh because I'm thinking now what the heck was I smoking because I hate to say it guys but I was wrong do you think anybody actually learned the important lessons on risk back in 2018 and 2017 no I doubt it very much because guys the very same people who bought Bitcoin back near the highs of 20,000 near 1920 thousand dollars and they sat through while Bitcoin prices just crashed going lower and lower they're the same people or the same kind of people essentially who bought Bitcoin near the dangerous levels this year in 2019 as price of Bitcoin skyrocketed from 8,000 all the way to near 14,000 it peaked just near 13,800 despite all the warnings that we had back then for example we can see here Elte acceleration extreme showed to us that the price of Bitcoin was an extreme acceleration and that we could potentially be extremely overbought here but as I'm sure you know few people were listening even back then do you know what people were saying to us back then despite all the warnings here's a few comments this is one comment that people are posting back then in your dreams only we're gonna see 8k ever again come on man basically you're saying everything is possible Bulls will not be shaken out in the beginning of a bull market in other words guys back at a time when Bitcoin was going higher and higher getting close to 13,000 the FOMO was so strong you know the greed the complete lunacy was so strong that people were just disregarding anything to the contrary and we were getting these overly bullish kind of comments here's another comment for you from the time this is also a very bullish comment from near the time nothing bearish will happen this is it nothing bearish will happen so no 8,500 but instead 17,000 you hey guys if there's one thing we've learned is this always pay attention to what people are saying on social media the more everybody the more the majority of people are getting extremely bullish and extremely overconfident about something the more likely it is that they're on the wrong side of the market that is something we've learned consistently by looking at the price action and by looking at the sentiment of the market and guys that is not all as I'm sure you remember back when Bitcoin was still over 10,000 you know was when it was trading near 10 11,000 we were giving warnings to people that we should be patient and wait for a pullback for a drop in the price of Bitcoin in fact as you remember I did a webinar an interview with Charlie Burton my good friend and trader Charley Burton and here's what we said in that video way back in July August it might help that market when a market start has gone up like it has done you get into this euphoric sort of mode again and it would be nice for it to settle down and then build a platform for maybe another leg higher for even from there a bit like we've been talking about earlier on sometimes as a trader you just have to let the market come to you you have to pick your level and you wait for the market to come to you now sometimes the market won't come to you you can't chase it so for me at the moment the way that I would be looking at that with the way that I look at the market is to say well if it just goes from here fine because I do see it currently in a bull market yeah really I agree there's one thing I learned is I don't actually you mention this many times the past I totally agree with this but just don't chase the market let the market come to you let the price come to you and it's frustrating don't get me wrong here I think everyone is watching this video will agree with this that it is very frustrating when the market doesn't pull back doesn't come to the levels you want it just keeps going going it is extremely frustrating to think that it's important to did be disciplined and stick to rules because if you're just going to be doing impulse buys impulse trades or whatever you know you didn't gonna be all over the place it's gonna be much more risky down the line would you agree with that absolutely 100% because you see it even on a micro level as well I've I deal with a lot of day traders and and you see on a even on an intraday basis the markets go flying up and then you'll see day traders all around the world trying to get in on that or panicking because they're not in on it and so it's the same it's the same type of emotion whether it's small time frames like day trades all those bigger picture time frames like we're talking about with Bitcoin but you can't if you do just chase the markets then you're putting yourself and your wealth at risk because sometimes it might work out for you but if you get the wrong price level when it starts coming back down how'd you get out and that's where a lot of people go wrong so they don't know how to get out so guys you heard there me and Charlie were warning extremely against the idea of getting into Bitcoin at those ridiculously high prices because we said look very likely we could see a pullback and drop in the price of Bitcoin which as you can see we pretty much have had and you know again anybody who bought Bitcoin at those extreme highs essentially a sat through the 50% drop in the price of Bitcoin because again most people do not have an exit strategy most people do not have any methodology or any discipline on risk control now I don't want to finish this video on a negative note you see guys there is some good news at the end of this here's the good news if you happen to be one of those people who bought Bitcoin at the Phou most stages of for example 13,000 here or near 12,000 or let's say you were one of those people who bought Bitcoin near nineteen twenty thousand in the year 2017 here's the good news you see guys as long as you learn from your mistakes this is a great opportunity because almost every fantastic trader in the world for example take the book market Wizards if you haven't read that book make sure you read it because every fantastic trader in that book has at some point made the same mistakes that you probably have all right the difference is they learned from their mistakes and guys I'm sure you probably know I've said this before I myself made the same mistake back in the year 2000 in the year 2000 many of us including me bought technology stocks or dot-com stocks right near the peak of that bubble I mean at the time I didn't know what I was doing I didn't know anything about charts or about analysis or about trading so in the year 2000 I essentially got in with almost everybody else getting into this frenzy into this bubble at the Wars possible time and yes guys I kept those technology stocks a I held on to them all the way through until the majority of this technology stuff those dot-com stocks became worthless alright guys so that was a huge learning lesson for me and for a lot of people the key thing is this guys we have to learn from those mistakes if we don't learn from these mistakes in the past we can never progress so again going back to the book market Wizards the key thing is guys that all the great traders in that book like Paul Tudor Jones for example they all made the same mistakes by they learned from those mistakes so guys my point simply is this if you've made mistakes with Bitcoin that's a good thing because that means you've learned an important lesson about risk that most people have never learned or probably will never learn so use it as an opportunity to learn in progress further alright guys thanks very much indeed and I'll see you guys in the next video update bye for now
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