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rose by about 0.5% upon the market reopening after the Christmas holidays, showing signs of continuing its upward trend. Looking at the market's energy in the short term, I think it is highly likely that even if the rise slows slightly here, the gap will narrow in this manner. Therefore, from an investor's perspective, there is no need to liquidate all your stocks or fall into a bearish trap.
For now, please just remain neutral and think that the upward energy is still continuing. If you have any positions, it should n't be a major issue to push forward and maintain them to some extent. Of course, if the trend shows a slight reversal, I intend to call it a short-term correction, so please continue to follow that aspect.
The SMP 500 is also showing a trend of challenging its previous high. This year's previous high has already been broken—it was Apple that broke through—and so on. QQQ, for instance, has broken through its previous high and is showing a continuous upward trend this year. Tech stocks appear to have already reached their previous highs, but the Nasdaq still has some room to maneuver.
Since the current level is around 16,000, the previous high, there is still a margin of about 1,000 points. Therefore, if a " tightening" occurs in sectors other than tech, I believe the Nasdaq could also move forward in a trend where it sufficiently challenges its previous high. So, I think the energy will be maintained through January, and if a short-term correction occurs, February will likely be the turning point.
I expect the gap to narrow and a slight rebound to appear by the end of January, after which the direction might be re-established starting in February. Therefore, I believe there will be no major issues if you push forward with your current investment direction until the beginning of next year. In the case of semiconductors, they have risen 1.7%, and already The previous high has been broken, and the market continues to build momentum.
With Russell also rising by over 1%, sufficient energy is emerging, primarily in small and mid-cap stocks. These trends are continuing. Therefore, I advise that there is no need to sell preemptively in this zone. If the timing to sell comes, a signal will eventually appear, providing ample opportunity to realize profits.
You should consider whether you might hesitate at that point, and you should be cautious about entering the market at that time. Essentially, the main point I am making for those who have already bought is that entering at this point might be a bit late. Unless you entered around last Thursday to secure a position, or if you missed the buy recommendation, buying belatedly in this zone significantly increases your risk.
For those individuals, I strongly recommend keeping cash on hand rather than taking in a large amount. This is because having cash on hand allows you to either cut your losses or realize profits. Since you may feel a bit more at ease after taking profits, please be careful regarding those aspects at this position.
I think it would be best to approach new entries with caution. First of all, I mentioned that the German index has a certain degree of leading indicator properties. If you take a look at the German index, it basically hit a peak and is moving similarly to what I mentioned earlier. Right, it is moving in the direction of narrowing the gap.
Therefore, regarding Nasu and QQQ, even if a correction phase occurs or the MHD reverses, it won't drop like it did in 2022; instead, it will move in this direction. Since it is moving in this manner, buying and selling at every moment is a waste of money just for the fees. In other words, since it is a period where fees and taxes alone are quite wasteful, I think it is right to take an investment buying timing suitable for a bull market right now.
I will provide an update once the overall market trend becomes clear. Therefore, even if a correction occurs here, I believe there is a possibility that the overall trend will not collapse significantly and will move in a direction that maintains the moving averages. So, regarding SOXL, next year...
Initially, I think you should adopt a holding strategy. So, rather than thinking about selling off a large portion, you should proceed with a holding strategy. Since there isn't an obvious reversal appearing on the weekly chart yet, you should hold with a long-term perspective. So, when should we be cautious?
We need to be careful when the energy on the weekly chart starts to show signs of collapsing. Since we are currently in an overall bull market, it is better to view the trend from a long-term perspective. While you may not necessarily need to look at the monthly chart, we need to approach the upward phase with a long-term view.
Unless a crack occurs, I believe we need to continue approaching it with a holding strategy—that is, a strategy to maximize profits. Of course, short-term corrections are possible, so even if you set aside the idea of looking for a re-entry opportunity, I think it is correct to maintain that basic investment mindset.
I expect a short-term correction around February. Anyway, at the end of January—yes, the end of January— because of the FMC, I think January... Around the middle of the month, specifically between the 20th and 25th, depending on the market conditions, I think we might be able to avoid it for the first time.
First, there is a major event known as the FOMC meeting. Since variables could emerge due to the beginning of the year, and given that assets have risen significantly, the market might slightly turn around rather than accelerating. However, unlike before, this turnaround wouldn't mean a complete collapse, but rather a phased correction.
Therefore, I believe it is better to stick to your current strategy until mid-January. Looking at Tesla, the path ahead is a bit rough because the resistance level here is strong. However, since the trend itself hasn't collapsed, it needs to successfully weather this process for a stronger movement to emerge.
As I mentioned last time, we are currently in a situation where positive news is needed. So, while a support zone for an upside has been established, the market is currently hovering here because there is no "big hit" right now. Therefore, for Tesla, looking ahead, a big hit... If specific news emerges regarding earnings, new products, market expansion, or new industrial spending, and if it breaks through $300, this can be seen as a zone where a strong rally is possible.
However, I have been repeatedly emphasizing that this zone is somewhat risky. The reason I said it is okay to invest is that it is not far from the stop-loss line. So, I am not saying it will definitely go up; rather, while it is worth betting on the upside in this zone, it is still considered safe.
This is because the zone is providing strong support. If the momentum collapses, you can simply cut your losses around this point, and if not, you can just continue challenging the upward trend. Therefore, even though there was a holiday break for a few days, this zone does not appear to be collapsing right now.
It is moving in a gradual upward trend, so those who wish to hold should do so, and those who bought at the bottom should realize their profits first. Once strong buying pressure is confirmed, then you can challenge the price. However, regarding the line—that is, this zone itself... You must make sure to take advantage of the benefit of being able to set tight stop-losses.
Now, in the case of Apple, it looks like its energy is faltering a bit. As you can see, after touching the high twice, it is turning downwards slightly. Since it has already broken slightly below the 50-day moving average, if you are investing in Apple, it appears that now is a time to wait rather than a time to enter.
Also, regarding the Nasdaq, after a slight rise in other areas, Apple is likely to undergo some kind of correction. Since there is a strong perception that Apple is the number one and safe stock, it is highly probable that by the time buying pressure returns slightly, the market will be undergoing a moderate correction.
So, please observe this dual divergence a bit. As for buying Apple, regarding Tesla, it is still moving without significant deviation from the view I previously provided. However, you should make good use of the fact that the stop-loss and support lines are close. If the market suddenly collapses, or if it fails to challenge the 300 line during this rally and remains stuck there, then...
It might be better to avoid it. What I mean by this is that when I say the market looks like it will undergo a short-term correction, it is n't a bad idea to realize your positions. This is because if the market undergoes a correction and fails to break through the upper resistance line, it could collapse.
Therefore, I am saying that positions for preemptive selling may emerge. However, in the current situation, since the market is in the process of absorbing supply zones and is not collapsing, I think it would be appropriate to just wait. Since S2 Ex has strong energy, if the market maintains an uptrend, I think you should proceed with a strategy of continuing to hold.
However, the point of concern is that the gap with the 50-day moving average is quite large. If there are swing traders, the 5-day moving average is probably moving like this. If you set your stop-loss line based on these short-term moving averages, I think you won't feel too much pressure approaching it as a swing trade while protecting your profits.
The core of what I have summarized is that even if the market is good right now... So, I do n't mean that it will definitely go up or be a life-changing stock. Therefore, you need to set stop-loss lines according to your individual investment position and style. Also, there is no need to fall into bearish speculation when the market hasn't collapsed yet.
Currently, the market is moving long, and within that, depending on your style, if you secure a long position for the long term, you should hold on unconditionally. That is because we are currently in that kind of phase. However, if you are swing trading in the short term, I believe that if you focus heavily on short-term averages and execute swing sells, you can still protect your profits in this zone.
So, I think I can summarize it like this overall. I will continue to monitor the market this week, and if any cracks appear in the market after mid-January, I will be able to offer some insightful advice on that as well. For now, I will wrap up today's video here. Thank you.
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