저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥은 보합(-0.19%)이었으나 반도체(SOX)·러셀2000은 2% 이상 강세. 기술적 분석상 주요 저항을 돌파해 단기 랠리 가능성이 있으므로 손절선 설정 후 매수 관점 제시. 5/7/10/20일 이동평균을 손절·익절 기준으로 활용할 것을 권고. 테슬라도 박스권 돌파 시 단기 상승 가능성 언급. 채권은 금리 고점 후 하락 전환 가능성과 FOMC 동결 기조, 파월의 비둘기파적 발언을 언급하며 단기 반등 가능성 제시. VIX는 역사적 저점 수준이라 자산 상승 여지를 언급. 전반적으로 리스크 관리와 매도 타이밍 준비를 강조.
다듬은 글
. Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed flat, down 0.19%, and the QQQ showed a similar trend. On the other hand, semiconductor stocks like the SX and the Russell 2000 are showing strong trends, rising by over 2%. As I have mentioned several times, when making big money in stocks, it is often because specific sectors, such as the Russell and SX, create major rallies by rising within 10 seconds.
The fact that the Russell surged like this yesterday suggests that it was a market where those holding promising or high-earning small-to-mid-cap stocks saw significant profits. Therefore, centered around such stocks, there were many gains of nearly 10% yesterday, and since I also hold a lot of those stocks, it was a market that saw gains.
Conversely, the fact that the overall index slowed down means that established large-cap stocks like Apple and Nvidia are showing a trend where their gains narrow slightly. It can mean that it is possible. I have briefly explained the reasons for the differences among major indices. Now, how should we view the current position?
In my case, I advised caution when a bearish candle appeared, but after seeing the price break through this area upwards and rise, what did I say? I said to set a stop-loss line and buy. In other words, how should we interpret this? I previously advised waiting for the bottom, but since the bottom has been established on the upper side, I said that a short-term rally could occur as the price breaks through the previous high.
I believe how we respond to a short-term rally is the key. Many people, when a short-term rally occurs like this, may have captured the buying timing well, but often struggle with knowing when to sell. Therefore, in the case of a short-term rally like this, especially since the current level is quite high, risk management is key.
What I am saying is, for stocks starting from a low position—for example, if we bought the Nasdaq in this zone... Actually, even if it drops a little, you could respond by buying more. However, if you entered at such a high position, the impact could be significant when a correction occurs. This is especially true for sectors like the Nasdaq or semiconductor stocks, which have already surpassed their previous highs and this year's highs.
Consequently, when a correction happens, you might end up suffering greater losses because you don't know when to sell. In other words, the difference between me and those on my YouTube channel who enjoy talking about themselves is that bragging and boasting just because the market has risen is n't meaningful.
You need to start preparing for risk management from the moment a stock starts going up. Since risk arises as the market rises, we must constantly consider what to watch out for even while it is going up. I always film my videos based on my convictions. Therefore, for those who entered at the current Nasdaq or QQQ level, since there has already been some rise, the stop-loss line I mentioned earlier has actually developed a bit of a gap.
In that case, regarding the next move we can make... The criterion for deciding to sell is to enter the trade while viewing these short-term moving averages as support lines. So, since the current trend is a strong short-term upward movement, if the price maintains this level and continues to rise, you should not sell.
Instead, if you sell when the short-term downward energy is broken, you can safely realize profits even in a short-term rally market like the current one. I am just giving you a tip. So, how should we interpret this situation? If the price rises like this and then breaks through the short-term rally, that is when we can consider selling.
In this case, it could be the 5-day, 7- day, or 10-day moving average. You should judge for yourself how much risk you are willing to tolerate; it could also be the 20-day moving average. However, since the stop-loss line drops quite a bit in this case, you should set the stop-loss line using these short-term moving averages.
If you proceed, you can certainly identify the timing for profit realization even during this current short-term rise. Now, as I mentioned before, while Nasdaq and QQQ have good energy, the stronger the trend, the easier it is to set a stop-loss. So, since the SOX is currently showing a strong trend, I am suggesting that if the trend rides up in the short term and then breaks through at a certain level, that could be the timing to consider taking profits.
Also, since Russell is showing a similar trend, if you invest in stocks displaying such strong momentum using the method I mentioned, I believe it is a strategy that allows you to fully enjoy profits while managing risk to some extent. Now, looking at the overall market situation for profit realization, it has broken through the major supply zone.
In that case, the resistance line is highly likely to be where profit-taking orders are emerging. Since those holding their break-even have absorbed the profit-taking orders here, short-term profit-taking orders have formed at the top, and now this has become a support line, allowing the market to rise.
So, I suggest that you view this as a short-term opportunity and consider investing. I, too, cannot simply follow the flow—predicting whether it will go up or down like a fortune teller—but ultimately, we must respond based on scenarios. When it dropped like this, I warned you to be cautious because it formed a long bearish candle and hung below the major trend line.
However, the fact that it broke out of the consolidation range by breaking through the opening price of that bearish candle for two consecutive days implies that a short-term rally could occur. Therefore, I advised that you should buy at this point. You can view the current situation as moving in accordance with that flow.
However, since those who have bought are most afraid of when to sell, I would advise you to utilize the short-term moving averages as support lines—that is, to use them as stop-loss and profit-taking lines. Therefore, it is highly likely that TQ and SXL will move in a similar pattern. Since zones where these short-term moving averages are threatened always present opportunities to sell, I urge you to pay attention to these aspects.
I think you should respond to the current short-term rally. Now, let's take a look at Tesla as well. It has formed a long bullish candle for the first time in a while after being in a trading range. Therefore, if it breaks out of the range after today, a short-term rally could certainly occur in Tesla.
As you can see, the short-term moving average has crossed the long-term pattern. Since the support line exists on the lower side, I believe this is a zone where those who like Tesla could consider placing a short-term bet. In other words, the part we need to be careful about in the current market is that it is moving from a high position—that is, it is rising steeply from a considerably high zone— so risk management is necessary.
Personally, I think it is safer to approach this as a swing trade rather than a "buy and accumulate" style of investing, and that is exactly what I am discussing right now. First, let me mention that I have previously stated that the DAX, or the German index, acts as a lead indicator. Since the German index has recently pushed up in a V-shape, the NAS is also following suit.
As you can see, the German index Also, the market is showing signs of a potential short-term correction. In that case, the Nasdaq or QQQ might undergo a slight correction before moving forward. When such situations arise, you cannot afford to be unsure whether to sell or buy. Therefore, since you need to establish principles and set selling rules right now, I have briefly explained some simple principles.
Furthermore, looking at the market as a whole, since it is currently in an investment trend of breaking through previous highs, you must continuously monitor the index during this phase. This means you should n't just buy and then ignore it for a while; you need to consistently observe how the market moves.
In particular, if you are using 3x leverage, you must continuously identify movements where the trend is slowing down. If you entered with a stop-loss line as I mentioned, you must consistently push that line upward along the moving average. By monitoring your investments in this manner, you can protect your profits as much as possible while minimizing risk.
I believe now is the right time to respond in this way. Especially in the case of bonds, the current yields are quite high It is coming down, meaning it is approaching a dead cross, as you can see. So, considering these factors, especially regarding the FOMC—as I mentioned in the previous video— there is a high probability that it will go for a freeze and maintain that trend.
However, Powell even made dovish remarks. I had initially predicted only up to this point, expecting a trend of watching until next year, but it caused a slight pump here. Now, I don't know exactly what this pumping is, but it could be that they are just watching. What you need to realize is that they might be observing how the market moves when the Fed makes such remarks.
Because while the stance itself is to maintain a freeze and they have n't deviated from the principle of monitoring, they might be checking how these rosy market outlooks or expectations for a pivot affect asset prices and, subsequently, how that impacts inflation. Since they haven't lowered or raised interest rates, assuming they will continue with a freeze stance, they could be checking these aspects.
However, the important thing is... next Since the FOMC is likely to be dominated by investment expectations and positive outlooks—yes, positive, right?—since it is highly likely that sentiment will prevail, when we consider these aspects, you should be aware that we are currently in a phase where bond prices could rise in the short term in a V-shape.
You may think that this level is already sufficiently high, but as I always say, investment always begins with the appearance of a Golden Cross. So, please pay attention to those aspects and continue to watch bond prices and yields. Because when will this positive sentiment break? A drop in demand for bonds—that is, a decrease in expectations for a pivot—will be reflected in these bond yields.
If you monitor these factors while watching the market, I believe you can invest safely. As for the VIX, since it is at a historical low, looking at the recent timeline, it seems likely to stay here for a while. If it stays here like this, you can assume that asset prices will rise significantly. So, like this...
In this manner, whether it is 2021, 2017, or even this year, since the price appears to be hovering here with some divergence present, now is a sufficient time for us to place short-term bets and attempt a buy position upon breaking through the previous high. However, I prepared this video today because I believe risk management regarding when to sell is absolutely necessary.
So, I will end my discussion here for today. If you found this video helpful, please subscribe and like. Thank you.
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