저자: DBell · 한국인
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미국 증시가 4일 연속 상승 후 기술주 중심 하락 마감(나스닥 -1.7%, S&P500 -0.7%). 테슬라 루머 무산 6% 급락, 엔비디아·AMD 약세. 미국 CPI 발표를 앞두고 바이든 발언이 고물가 보험성으로 보여 불안하다는 견해. 10년물 금리 1.49%, 공포지수 33. 5마이크론(오미크론 계열) 확산 우려 및 에버그란데 제한적 디폴트 소식. 내년 S&P500 전망(4,600~5,200)을 비교. QLD·SSO 분할매수 구간 제시와 조정장 대응법(웅덩이매매법) 설명.
다듬은 글
And regarding the year- end SMP OVE index forecast from around this time last year, the current SMP OVE index is 4,667. It is good that it has risen by as much as 26% this year. Last year, the most optimistic forecast among major Wall Street investment banks was 4,400 points. Ah, hello. This is D Bell, pushing the Puddle trading method, leverage ETF, and long-term investor.
After rising for four consecutive days, the US stock market finally gave a resonance. There are many things to examine today. I intend to tell you only the important contents from the news. First, regarding the Tesla December 9th rumor, nothing happened in the end, and as a result, Tesla's stock price plummeted 6% on that day.
Also, the interim syrup indicator came out very well, and it seems that such good results will lend weight to accelerating tapering and early interest rate hikes. Furthermore, former President Bai made an unusual public announcement stating that the CPI released today does not reflect the price decline of some items.
It gives the impression of taking out insurance in advance. The figures for water to be released today could also come out very high, and the market I am cautiously considering the possibility that buying opportunities might return to us due to the shock. Also, forecasts for the Monthly SMPs from major US Wall Street investment banks have been released; I will take some time to compare and review them.
There is news that the recent spread of the 5-micron wave in the UK is more serious than expected. Since we need to continue monitoring the status of the 5-micron wave, I will share this information. Next, there is news that Evergrande Group has been downgraded to the proposed default group. Finally, I will discuss the current situation regarding the "Qual D" and "SS" memorized "bouncing" trading methods, and I plan to wrap up today's video by conducting a Q&A session in the comments regarding down-mass timing and "puddle" trading methods.
So, let's begin today's market overview. Yesterday, the three major US stock indices hit their bottoms for the first time in four days. They faced pressure due to the "slippery" nature of the 5-micron wave and the tedious nature of the task; unexpectedly, the decline in tech growth stocks was much more pronounced than in cyclical stocks.
Therefore, regarding the 5-micron wave, I do not think it is as large as expected, and it appears that the current market is more afraid of accelerating tapering and an early exit from the market. Consequently, there is bargain buying in tech stocks and It appears to be a battle of selling pressure driven by fears of tightening.
This applies to US stocks, which have risen for the past four days. Naturally, it seems likely that profit-taking will occur, and it appears appropriate for a brief pause. Regarding the OMI-from-Mercury variant we know, the potential for further formation is larger. Anxiety has resurfaced that the economy will be threatened if movement restrictions are implemented to prevent the massive spread of the virus.
The market closed securely, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a significant drop of 1.7% and the SMP 500 closing down 0.7%. Looking at the market map, the overall trend was mixed, and weakness in the US stock market is evident. The semiconductor sector showed weakness, with Nvidia and AMD experiencing significant declines.
Although there was some anticipation due to rumors on December 9th, [the stock] plummeted by 6%. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains in a consolidation phase, currently situated at 1.49, but it could surge at any time. It seems we need to keep an eye on this. The price fear index is 33. Our Quill D and SS are located in Sunny on the coming 20th, and while there is fear, the figures remain low.
A year ago, it was at 80, a cheap price due to extreme greed. It looks like the predictions were wrong, as we were expecting a cheap turn for everyone in December. Also, there is an important announcement today. The US Consumer Price Index ( CPI) has been released. Ahead of the FMC statement release on the 15th, this will serve as a basis for gauging the Fed's tightening path.
It appears there was some profit-taking selling yesterday because people expected this figure to come out high. The issue I am worried about right now is that President Byron made an unusual statement regarding today's CPI release before the announcement. I feel uneasy because it strongly feels like he is taking out insurance knowing it will come out high.
In his statement, Biden said, "Tomorrow we will receive a consumer price report from experts that they expect to rise again," adding that fortunately, energy prices have fallen in the weeks since the data was collected. He mentioned that gasoline prices are allowing nationwide after data collection, and regarding used cars...
They showed a willingness to soothe us in advance by stating that prices have also started to fall. If results come out higher than expected today, we need to observe how much of a shock the market will take and whether this presents a new opportunity to respond. Also, the weekly jobless claims in the U.S.
announced yesterday fell to their lowest level in 52 years; this is evidence that the labor market is steadily recovering. However, the stock market currently views such positive figures as bad news because it could accelerate the pace of monetary tightening. Despite the sharp decline, the Department of Labour has not offered any specific explanation regarding these figures.
It seems important to see how the Fed interprets these results. Next is news regarding 5 microns. The number of confirmed 5 micron cases in the UK has surpassed 800, with 249 cases reported on this day, nearly double the 131 cases from the previous day. With the number of 5 microns doubling in the UK in just one day, it is speculated that actual transmission is likely faster than we anticipate.
The UK government currently [has] 800 It is estimated that among confirmed cases, the actual number of infected individuals is [missing] out of 10,000, and it is projected that the number of infected people will increase to 1 million by the end of this month. According to research results from Kyoto University in Japan, the typicality of the 5-micron variant was found to be 4.2 times that of the beta variant.
Professor Nishiura stated that the 5- micron variant is more contagious and evades immunity formed naturally or through vaccination more effectively. He explained that this means even if the proportion of severe patients is smaller, the higher transmissibility ultimately implies that more people will contract the virus.
I just hope the symptoms are mild enough to be brought under control. Next is the truly tiresome news regarding Evergrande. The news is that Evergrande Group's credit rating has been downgraded to "limited default." This is because Evergrande did not respond to a request to confirm the status of 97 billion won in bonds, leading to the conclusion that the bonds were not being repaid.
Honda had fallen into a state of de facto default after failing to pay bond interest due by the 6th; although there has been no official declaration yet, with Fitch classifying Evergrande's situation as a "limited default," Evergrande's The default has been formalized, and we need to watch how far this situation will affect us.
Finally, the last news I want to share concerns major Wall Street investment banks forecasting the SLP to reach 500 points next year. Even though they are major Wall Street investment banks, their outlooks differ; I brought this up because I thought it would be interesting to see which firm is right by this time next year.
As I introduced in yesterday's video, Freddie Suisse made the most optimistic forecast at 5,200 points, while Bank of America made the most pessimistic one at 4,600. To put it broadly, among the eight investment banks forecasting the SMP to exceed 5,000 points next year, five— Barclays and Bank of America—projected 5,000 points.
It would be good to check which investment bank is closest to this forecast by this time next year. Also, here is the year-end SLP OVE index forecast from around this time last year. Currently, the SMP OVE index is at 4,667, which is a good sign of a 26% increase over the past year. Last year, the most optimistic forecast among major Wall Street investment banks was 4,400 points, and the worst-case scenario was 3,800 points.
You need to understand that even experts cannot predict this. Therefore, predictions are just for fun; ultimately, you should only respond. I hope you realize this point. No matter how much I buy and sell, it is not better than simply buying and selling while accumulating. This is because it is impossible to achieve a 3 every time.
Next year, with the acceleration of Paper Lean and early interest rate hikes, we do not know if it will fall or rise well. We simply respond using the exercise map method. Please do not forget this point. Now, I would like to explain the current and next buy positions for the QD and SS exercise 2x map method.
First, here is the daily chart for Asta 2x leverage QLD. As of yesterday, I have finished all my second round of QLD purchases. If the stock price drops to the 61 line, you can start the second round of purchases again. If the stock price does not reach the 60-day mark and goes up, you should continue to observe.
Yes, it works. Currently, regarding the two scenarios for Quill, if the price rises above the 20-day moving average, you should hold the first purchase. If it fails to rise from here and falls to touch the 60-day moving average, you should start the second purchase. Derek, the current interval to start the second purchase for Quill is around $82.6.
Next is the daily chart for SMP 500 SS, which we are not discarding this time. For SSO, the second purchase ended a few days ago, and looking at the current chart, you can see that the candle finished above the green 21-day line without touching it. Therefore, we must wait for the upcoming first purchase for SS.
I plan to place a limit order at $139.7 for 10% of the capital allocated for the first purchase on SSO as soon as the market opens today. Now, regarding the puddle trading method comment quest: Regarding the stock that Raito is investing in, it reached the 60-day moving average, so I purchased it by splitting my cash with 50%.
However, the market recovered, but then it corrected back to the 60-day moving average... You asked, "What do you do when that happens?" I have brought the correction market charts from last September and December. It was a painful and tedious correction market that lasted for about three months. First, if you look at the screen, the "Star" phase has already begun, so I follow the principle of split buying over 5 days.
The section where the candles do not drop to the 3rd Mass Time and do not rise is a waiting zone. Then, the stock price rises above the 60-day moving average and comes back down, lightly touching the 61-day line. At that point, it becomes the 2nd buying timing; you continue buying for 5 days using the remaining funds.
Then, just when it seems the stock price is rising, it climbs to the previous high but weakens again, closing the 61-day line once more. You buy again for 5 days as the 2nd buying timing. The very next day, the 120-day moving average 3rd Mass Time arrived, and even if the stock price shows an unbelievable surge starting the next day during that 3rd Mass Time, you continue buying for 5 days according to the principle.
Then, another decline occurs, and exactly at the 60-day moving average... It touches the chart. You just need to buy for 5 days as the second buying timing. If you buy according to the principles during this painful correction, the painful and tedious correction will eventually end. And the correction that felt like the world was ending and that US stocks were finished will turn into a bull market as if nothing ever happened.
I showed you a long chart of the Quail D candle; the red circle on the screen represents the correction period from September to December of last year that I just explained. During that time, there were 4 second buying timings and 1 third mass timing. You simply buy at every mass timing according to the trading method, which is like exercise.
Eventually, the correction will end, and you will enter the 5-week period of enjoying your account's rise. That is why you work hard and save every month to deposit that money into your account; you have to work hard to fill up during that time. Also, the correction points we suffered through are barely visible when looking at a long 15-year chart.
Those slightly indented areas are the painful market where we felt like we were going to die. Looking at it this way, it really seems like nothing. However, if you actually live within that chart day by day... It is really painful, and it feels like a massive crash is about to begin. That is why we need to bite the bait and hold on.
I need to do the same. Short-term corrections, lasting from a month to three days, occur several times a year, and for about one to three years out of every ten, the US stock market is either sideways or declining. That is when we need to bite and hold on. I believe that is the only way to enjoy the rise and reach the financial freedom or target profit we are setting as our goals.
I want everyone to enjoy this year and become a "Digging Up in the Puddle" ( O-jeul-ung)—supporting each other and holding out for the next ten years. That is all for today's video. If you found this video helpful, please subscribe, like, and leave a comment. Everyone, have a great last weekday, and I will see you in tomorrow's video.
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