저자: CathieWood,발언영상은ARK월간Ino에피소드편집본—제목·설명기준출연자소속ARKInvest · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 성장주가 깊은 저평가 구간이고 가치주 쪽에 버블이 형성되고 있으며, 로테이션은 곧 끝날 것이라고 주장. 전체 논지: 코로나 이후 성장→가치 로테이션이 약 1년 전(2021년 2월 중순)부터 가속됐고, 알고리즘이 현금소진 등 단기 변수에 의존해 유전체 등 성장주를 과도하게 매도했다고 진단. 성장주 옹호: 텔라닥·줌 등은 매출이 급증했고 아직 '재택주'로 무시되는 것은 부당하다고 주장. 과거 닷컴 버블과 달리 현재 기업은 실제 소득과 고성장률이 있다고 강조. 연준 전망: FOMC 의사록상 금리 인상이 예상보다 빨라 3월 인상 가능성이 거론되며, 시장을 자극했다고 설명. 다만 인플레이션은 일시적이라고 봄. 소비 지표: 미시간대 소비자심리가 코로나 정점 수준까지 하락했고, 3분기 GDP 성장은 재고 축적에 따른 것이며 실질 최종판매는 거의 늘지 않았다고 분석. 자동차 시장: 중고차 가격 고점 대비 약 60% 상승한 버블 징후, 신차 판매는 4월 1,822만대 정점 후 약 1,300만대대로 하락 전망. 전기차 판매는 연 100% 가까이 성장 중이나 GM·포드 등 전통 OEM 매출의 97%는 내연기관차라고 지적하며, 소비자 전환 시 이들 기업이 문제에 직면한다고 경고. 자동차 대출 신용 문제와 일부 기업 적자 가능성도 언급. 시장 신호: 가치 로테이션은 성장주에 불리하지만 곧 끝날 것이며, 혁신 기업 주가는 절반~75%까지 하락했다고 언급. 가상자산 조정도 기술·성장주 약세의 연장으로 단기일 것이라 봄. 리스크/조건: 판매 정체 시 자동차 업체 가격 인하 압박, 중고차·신용 리스크 확대 가능. 성장주 반등 조건으로 1분기 실적 발표와 로테이션 종료를 지목. 출연자 전망: 가치주 버블·자동차주 취약, 성장주(유전체·전기차·로봇·AI·블록체인 등 14개 기술 융합) 반등 낙관.
다듬은 글
Arc Invest has just released its latest episode of Ino, Katie Wood's monthly video series where she talks about the stock market, the economy, and cutting-edge technology. She shared many great thoughts in this episode, but it was almost 50 minutes long. I recommend watching it in its entirety, but if you're short on time, I've created a supercut with the best moments for you .
I'll be back after the supercat to provide you with a series of independent resources that you can track yourself and see if Katie Wood's ideas become reality over time. Speaking of time, your time is valuable, so timestamps are enabled for your convenience , and I'll see you after the supercut. During the coronavirus crisis, when it hit, it became clear to me that the headlines that people in general, both investors and the general public , were reading did not reflect what was actually happening in the economy.
We believe that innovation lies in the deep territory of values. We believe that the coronavirus crisis caused by COVID-19 has accelerated the transition to innovative platforms on which we base all our research. I want you to know that, of course, we have been through a very difficult time since the significant rotation from growth to value began almost a year ago, in mid-February.
I want you to know that we are with you. We are all together. And my confidence, um, couldn't be greater, um, that the innovation that has evolved and accelerated as a result of the coronavirus crisis is unstoppable, and the convergence between the 14 different technologies that we're exploring, this convergence is happening now and is causing, and will cause, and will continue to cause explosive growth.
They will cause many problems for the basic economy, the traditional world order. What happened is that in the early stages of coronavirus, when I was making these videos, um, we had algorithms and quantitative strategies focused on just a few variables. Hmm, at that time it was, hmm, cash burn and, hmm, cash cushion; and, um, a lot of our stocks didn't have big cash cushions and were burning cash, especially in the genomics space.
They were removed by 75%, many of them within a month, literally within a month, within three weeks or a month. And, of course , that was the wrong answer; the algorithms were wrong, and that there was massive deception, because of course genomics was a big part of the solution to the problem we faced with the coronavirus.
Since February, when this, uh, growth-to- value conversion really accelerated, these same algorithms have had good success with this strategy. Uh, they were focused on inflation, inflation fears, interest rates, and valuations. And they compared what we're going through now to the tech and telecom bubble and bust, because the valuations that people were chasing were simply based on expectations that could have materialized, but never did .
We are now far from the situation, uh, dreams of that time. So the internet was quite transformative and led to cloud technologies and artificial intelligence. Uh , we live in the reality from which this dream began. And, uh , this reality has companies like Teldoc and Zoom. Just to give you a sense of contrast, you know, Teddoc has about two billion, uh, two billion in sales.
His income has quadrupled since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Uh, Zoom's revenue, uh, a year ago , in the fourth quarter, uh, grew six and a half times, uh, since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Solid revenue growth, uh, continues after very, uh, difficult comparisons. And we have two companies that are being dismissed as stay-at-home stocks, but, uh, they're going to hit the ground running soon.
Uh, we think that dismissing these stocks is quite inappropriate and shows that, uh , analysts or investors, uh, aren't doing their homework. What has angered the market, uh, over the last week or so is, uh, the release of the Fed minutes, which indicate that the Fed is going to be more aggressive in, uh, raising interest rates, maybe sooner than many expected, maybe in March, and it doesn't want to be accused of, uh, supporting inflation and, of course, not getting out of control.
We believe that some of the economic statistics, which I'm going to share with you a little later, are well known to the Fed, and these statistics suggest that inflation is indeed temporary. Now what we've been trying to assess over the last few months is where the real demand is now that all these, um, workers are coming back to work.
We look at other, ahem, statistics that show discrepancies with this. One of them, the most important, is consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment has dropped to levels that, um, we last saw at the height of the coronavirus, um, both in November and December. This is a very important part of the year when the consumer feels insecure, ahem, because it's the biggest sales season of the year .
The other one, again, reflects GDP statistics for the third quarter. In the third quarter of last year, real GDP grew by 2.3%. This was a big disappointment compared to expectations. But what was n't in the headlines, and I still do n't publish, is that virtually all of this growth went to inventory.
It was not sold. Real final sales increased by a tenth or perhaps two- tenths. This is what I think the headlines failed to take into account. You might also be surprised to hear this . Then we move on to cars. I think this is the most interesting part of what's happening in the economy right now. Mannheim's used car index just screams.
I think used car prices at their peak were up about 60% year-over-year. The bubble was on used cars, and it could burst. New car sales peaked in April at 18.225 million units. Now that we're into October and the automakers are discussing earnings reports, everyone , including Elon Musk, is saying, "Okay, the chip shortage is starting to ease.
" They blamed the sales decline because it started in April and they were declining, down to 13 million units from 18 and a quarter. The chips were the missing link. Okay, they're starting to fill up. November 12.86. December we just got this number 12.44. Meanwhile, electric vehicle sales have grown by almost 100% per year.
What is going on here? Perhaps it's a combination of consumer sentiment, dissatisfaction with what's happening, and, ahem, changing consumer preferences. That's why at CES, the Consumer Electronics Show, you heard these automakers, um, talking more about, um, electric cars. Of course, it was, um, the electronics show , and we saw that Ford F150 Lightning, they're going to have to double production given all the demand.
Well, what they don't tell you during these, um, CES keynotes and so on, is that electric vehicles are about two to three percent of their sales, and that 97 percent of their revenue is based on gasoline-powered vehicles, and that's probably over 90 percent of their production. So if there's a combination of consumer rejection, an unwillingness to spend that much money, certainly not on expensive products, and a change in preferences, if they're going to spend, they're going to spend it on electric vehicles, then these OEMs have a problem.
We think we'll hear more about this in the quarterly reports. Now I look at the stock dynamics of companies like GM and Ford. They took off on these electric car ads. Think about it. This is funny. This is only 2% of their sales. What if the remaining 98% or so disappears as consumer preferences shift toward electric vehicles?
They have problems. Now let's move on to market signals. The rotation is still towards value. This is detrimental to growth. We think this has been launched a long time ago. We think it will end, but it's not over yet. We are seeing a correction in the cryptocurrency market. Uh, they're starting to succumb to what we're seeing in the stock market, which is this, um, strike against technology, um, growth, innovation.
We believe this will be , um, short-term. And that will give you an idea of where the bubble might be in this market. This is not the case with shares of innovative companies. They have halved, many of them, some by 75%. But listen to this. I told you the story about how Ford announced it would have to double production of its F150 Lightning electric vehicles and the stock just skyrocketed, ahem, without paying any attention to the automotive statistics I just mentioned.
Well, when I think about what could happen in this space, and I see these stocks, um, growing in sales, which doesn't mean anything to these companies, um, in terms of their revenue, let's say, um, right now they really need to invest a lot more in electric vehicles to make that happen and get things off the ground in these companies .
But what if we are right and sales growth will not be 20% ? Perhaps sales will be stable from the beginning of the year. That would mean approximately 15 million units. Um, and they're probably going to have to start lowering their prices if we're talking about the used car market and the prices there, which means they're probably going to run into some credit issues because they, uh, they're very dependent on the loans that people take out on their cars; and as prices fall, the residual value decreases.
You know, car loans were the most effective in 2089. So there is a lot of complacency in this market . Therefore, we believe that complacency is inappropriate, and that affordable auto loans could turn into chaos. And I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the companies loses money next year, which would be very unexpected.
If she loses money, what is that estimate? Where are those crazy ratings now? Are they in our stocks now, when, uh, Zoom has fallen to 33 or 35 times this year's earnings, or is it in car company stocks, where there could be losses, and what is that P/E ratio? This is infinity. That's where the bubble is.
And I think you'll see a lot more examples of that as this year goes on . And the innovations we see are developing so quickly . DNA sequencing transforming healthcare, robotics solving the labor shortage, energy storage, consumer preference for electricity, artificial intelligence being the glue that helps all of these technologies come together.
And lastly, blockchain technology. We believe we are living in a period of innovation that was a dream of the late 90s, but these companies were useless. They were based only on sight. We have real income. We have incredible growth rates. And if we're right, and the economy has an inventory problem, then our growth rates will look much higher than anything you'll find in the value space.
And we are looking forward to it. But I think when we see these earnings reports, first quarter forecasts, and this admission of what's really happening with stocks, we'll see a turnaround sooner rather than later. Wow, what an important episode. There are a number of valuable metrics that Katie Wood uses to conclude that growth stocks are in deep value territory and that a bubble is forming in the value stock market .
Let me show you which data sources you can track completely independently of Arc Invest to stay informed and draw your own conclusions. As always, all my sources can be found in the description below. Katie Wood noted that one of the most important indicators is consumer sentiment, especially during the holidays , when people tend to spend much more money on goods.
A great place to track consumer sentiment is through consumer surveys conducted by the University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment and expectations in December fell significantly compared to last year, meaning people are making fewer purchases. Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator of demand. When demand falls, supply prices must fall to match it over time .
Therefore, tracking consumer sentiment is a great way to get a single data point about future changes in price inflation. The Federal Reserve responds to changes in inflation, and one place where you can see this response directly is in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. I kind of treat these meetings as a way to make money, but for the entire economy.
There will be eight FOMC meetings this year, approximately every 7 weeks. So setting a reminder on your calendar and checking the minutes for interest rate hike discussions is a great way to stay informed directly from the source, without the bias of the media. As of the December 15 meeting, expectations for the first federal funds rate hike had shifted from the first quarter of 2023 to June 2022 , meaning they are considering raising interest rates about 9 months earlier than the market had expected prior to that meeting.
The Federal Reserve responds to changes in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI . So tracking this is a great way to predict what the Fed might say and do in the future. The best source of information on the CPI is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Their website shows the CPI broken down into different categories of goods and services.
When Katie Wood talks about the prices of certain goods forming a bubble, you can see it for yourself here. For example, here is inflation for all goods in November at 6.8%. As everyone has said, now check how high the inflation was on new cars, where, according to Katie Wood, a bubble is forming . Inflation for new cars was 11.1%.
Now check the inflation on gasoline. This is a volatile asset. No pun intended. This volatility and high gasoline inflation may be part of the reason consumers want to switch to electric vehicles. And the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is how I like to track this price, and that's partly why I write so much about Tesla.
So, let's move on to Tesla and its competitors. Fred uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to track overall car sales. If we take a closer look at the data from the pandemic, we see that car sales peaked in April at around 18.8 million units, and now stand at around 13.3 million units, down as much as 40%.
At the same time, electric vehicle sales continue to break records, growing by double or even triple digits compared to last year. So the last thing we should be tracking is which car companies have the most sales related to electric vehicles, because the data seems to suggest that this is the direction the world is heading.
For example, Ford's battery electric vehicle sales account for about 2.5 to 3.5% of total sales today. It is expected that by 2025 this figure will be 11-12%. And by about 2030, 1/3 of their total sales should be electric vehicles. Even then, there are big differences between Tesla and Ford products, such as battery technologies, software options, and even their charging infrastructure.
Clean Technica is a great place to get EV sales data and compare it to each brand's overall sales data to see the percentage of EV sales coming from each brand per quarter. Their review of sales data for the full year of 2021 is due to be published in the next few weeks. We hope this review helped you review the latest episode of Ino with ArchInvest's Katie Wood, and also provided some independent resources you can follow to stay one step ahead.
My goal with these super- shortcuts is to add value by saving you time and gathering all the relevant resources in one place. And I'll save my own thoughts and comments for a separate episode. If you find this valuable as an investor, let me know by is is a great way to invest in a channel that invests in you.
So stay tuned, ol Y. My name is Alex, and I remind you that the best investment you can make is an investment in yourself.
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