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Well, good morning, good morning to everyone, to all the friends, to all the traders, investors, and followers of Audiomercados. Let's start our morning call now. It is Thursday, October 22nd. Today we're going to release many interviews, many comments that have occurred in the last few hours, especially, as we've been doing lately, from relevant voices, voices that we should definitely take into account.
We talked and we're going to review a very extensive interview that Bloomberg did yesterday with the CEO of Citadel, in this case in Griffith. Yesterday we interviewed one of their top executives, one of their analysts, with Rubner from Citadel. Today it's your boss's turn . Today we're going to look at the statements of Ken Griffith, who talks about a possible bubble in artificial intelligence.
We're going to compare it with what Fonstrat is saying , whether or not they recommend buying the stocks, especially those related to artificial intelligence. We will review not only the analyses offered by Fonstrat, but we will also review the interview that CNBC gave yesterday at the close of the North American session to their technical analyst Mark Newton of Fonstrat as well.
So it's very interesting to compare the views in this case, and added to a report by JP Morgan analysts, specifically talking about the chip sector in this case. So this morning call is going to be very interesting . We hope you feel that way, of course. And we're going to get right into it because the first headline is that the markets are once again fearing that the situation of tension, of war, between the United States and Iran could intensify.
The New York Times has reported in this article that both the United States and Israel are developing plans to launch new attacks against Iran after the midterm elections , which are also taking place at the end of the month in Israel. The midterm elections will begin on November 3rd, and according to the American media, the United States and Israel are already preparing plans to establish new hostilities once the elections are over .
In this case, in fact, yesterday I interviewed Donald Trump on the ground as he was boarding the presidential plane, saying that they are not negotiating with Iran, but that in any case it will be resolved very soon in one direction or another. Yes, in fact we have heard it on several occasions, on many occasions we would say to Donald Trump, uh, to make headlines in this sense, but yesterday it did generate some volatility during the session, especially when, for those of you who were there and were in the live trading session, we reached the targets.
Then a news story came out that, especially in the main news outlets—look, let's review the news here, the main ones, uh—well, the American agency had ordered its government employees and family members to leave Saudi Arabia as the Khuti attacks against the kingdom intensified. And then it became known that the United States and Israel are drawing up plans to launch new attacks against Iran after the midterm elections .
This was the news that broke on Bloomberg yesterday and that generated volatility because it logically anticipated a possible movement in this case at a geopolitical level. By the way, not only geopolitical news, not only what they say from Wall Street, nor what concerns artificial intelligence, last night we also had relevant results, companies with weight in the indices as has been the case of Tesla, in this case, which you can see that, well, in the after-hours it is doing a pullback, right now it is falling, on the other hand, we also have it advancing.
Well, he had a reaction, you know him, you know who he is, he is undoubtedly one of the most relevant voices, one of the leading investment firms globally, of course, by volume, by asset management. It's Ken Griffith. And as we said in this rather extensive interview he gave yesterday on Bloomberg, he said that we are almost certainly in an AI bubble.
Uh, he was saying that the artificial intelligence market is probably a bubble, although he acknowledges that the technology being developed could profoundly transform the economy. He was talking about an investment bubble, that companies are allocating extraordinary amounts of investment to AI without yet being clear whether they will obtain sufficient profits to justify that expenditure.
Questionable profitability. He says that many of these companies have still not managed to turn the use of AI into significant improvements in productivity or profitability. And he points out that huge amounts of capital are still needed . He points out that Antropic alone could need up to $750 billion to develop its additional capacity over the next few years.
He was talking about that Antropic IPO, which is expected around November. He says they are preparing one of the biggest IPOs and logically this company has implications for financing chips, data centers and many sectors and companies that are around it. Real technological transformation . Griffin acknowledges that major technological revolutions are often accompanied by speculative bubbles.
He says, "A financial bubble does not mean that technology lacks a future." So, well, it was certainly a relevant interview talking about the possibility or not of a possible bubble, but from here we are going to jump completely to the other side. If we're talking about a bubble, then let's look at the report that Fonstrat has updated .
Uh, in this case, their chief economist, in this case chief analyst, Stley, says that Fonstra is recommending you buy the AI dips. He says the recent correction in AI-related stocks is a buying opportunity, not the end of the bull run. He says the market is panicking over artificial intelligence. He has identified the factors that cause those sales.
South Korea's stock market index, the CPI, has lost its July lows in this case. It reflects a weakness around technology and semiconductor companies, although the concentration, remember, is very much measured in Samsung and SK Genex. He says investors fear a potential debt crisis related to the massive AI infrastructure investments.
According to Tom Lee, according to Fonsrat, the market is reacting in an excessively pessimistic way, and he does so by comparing the case, do you remember the Cisco case? Uh, it talks about, especially between 1994 and 2000. Uh, here you can see that boom that logically occurred when the internet boom was in the 90s, when it started in '94, Cisco stock was worth 0.80, 80 cents.
If we look at it, 3 years later it rose to $9, then it had a subsequent correction to $. Sure, it doesn't seem like much in monetary terms, but we're talking about going from 9 to 5, so that's more than 35%, right? If my calculations are correct. A year after it skyrocketed, its value tripled to $18, and from $18 it fell by half, a 50% drop to $9, and from $9 it soared to $80 in the 2000s.
It says that Cisco suffered a 44% correction due to concerns about growth, competition, and debt, also in circumstances similar to those we are experiencing right now from the US Federal Reserve. However, he experienced an extraordinary recovery, as we can see here. So, what conclusions can we draw from this that AI might be entering a phase similar to Cisco's correction of 1900?
97 before a new stage of steep climbs. So this is what Tom Lee is saying. We may be experiencing moments, or we are currently experiencing this moment, to begin to see a possible movement towards, or what Cisco did by replicating, Cisco's move that went from 9 to 80. Tomley also highlights that the exposure of headphones has dropped to levels not seen since the day of release.
Do you remember when Donald Trump used to go out with that sign, with those tariffs that each country applied? There, the net exposure of hedge funds to rental income fell significantly. Goldman Sachs says that, according to its data, the funds maintain a very defensive position. We are also seeing that in the latest Morning calls.
And he says that if sentiment improves, it could significantly increase its positions and generate upward pressure. So , well, what Tomle is making clear here is that he's trying to attribute the past behavior of companies to a very similar period, the internet boom of the 1990s. Look at two of them, with several scares along the way, but ultimately they reached their destination, or at least undoubtedly achieved very significant levels by the end of the year, in this case, 2000.
So, let's jump ahead, well, now what we want to see, and as a positive note, taking advantage of the fact that we're in the middle of earnings season, we're a little more, in this case, earnings season, around a little more, about 13% after last night's results, and so far, 88% of companies have beaten expectations, 13% of profits.
As we said, we are still in an initial phase, but we are already starting to see the financial sector, we are starting to see parts of the technology sector, 88% positive surprises, a higher-than-expected earnings rate, a bullish signal, therefore, I suggest that earnings are holding up better than expected, although there is still a large majority to come, but for now the earnings season could be an important catalyst.
And this is the JP Morgan report, which is important in this case because, well, it talks in this update that they have offered precisely about one of the focal points, the memory and semiconductor market. He says the market might be being too pessimistic. This JP Morgan report is very similar, as you can see, to what Fonstrat has shared in this case.
So JP Morgan and FSAT would be very similar. Logically, Ken Griffith's words are speaking in a much more global way. He's not specifically saying that this bubble is going to burst now or anything like that, but it could generate a peak that could create some tension like the one we're seeing. So the JP Morgan report saying that the sharp falls in stocks, especially memory companies, uh memory chips, says that they are not justified from a fundamental point of view.
This report mainly mentions the declines of Samsung, SKGNX, and Micron. Uh, it has fallen more than 40% from its peak. Logically, this is due to fears about the sustainability of AI investment, concerns about a possible slowdown in data center spending, increased risk aversion, financing tensions for AI infrastructure companies, and fears that chip memory prices will enter a new bearish cycle in 2027.
JP Morgan highlights three positive signs in this report . Spot prices for memory chips continue to rise, thus strengthening demand. So, the first positive point is that pricing here is a bit more technical, but in high-bandwidth memory, it could be negotiated upwards, and that would be point two. And point three is that long-term order visibility continues to improve and expand.
Therefore, he says that he does not yet detect clear signs of a worsening in either supply or demand, and therefore estimates that, well, we are seeing that companies, uh, as we were saying, Sandesk, well, we can even see the SOC index, uh, which has fallen by more than 20%, logically, uh, it is being, well, as JP Morgan says, perhaps there is too much pessimism in this pressure.
Samsung also has a quality score above 40%, SKG HNex over 59%, and Micron over 25%. So , these are some of the points on which I would be elaborating this report. And now we're going to move on to another interview. This was done last night prior to the results from Tesla, Meta, and IBM. He is the economist or technical analyst on Tom Lee's Fonstrat team.
In this case it's Mark Newton, a... Well, I personally really like his vision as a technical analyst. He says that the market, no, the Wall Street market is stronger than what the indices are reflecting, even though there are economic and geopolitical risks on the table. The geopolitical rivers, well, we are already seeing that the alarms are sounding again , but [snort] he highlights the main points.
He says, "The market breadth is improving." It says that the percentage of stocks that are above their 20-session moving average has gone from 20% to 45% in two and a half weeks. This is important. The amplitude is therefore improving. Second point, the SP continues to show resistance, it is less than 100 points away from its highs.
It has accumulated a rise of over 13% despite all the geopolitical tensions that are occurring. Temporary weakness, technology sector, what we are seeing in previous reports, says that technology companies are experiencing a correction in this case and also a rotation towards other sectors. It points to the healthcare sector, saying it has recently been leading the price increases.
It partially compensates for the weakness on the technological side. He points out that significant risks persist, on the one hand, the high bond yields, which are still far from the area of annual highs that we have reached. The price of oil is coming back, in fact, we are close to that $100 zone again.
Now we'll see it in the graphs. That is another risk, logically, to inflation. Armed conflicts can generate volatility. We're looking into it. This headline alone has caused oil prices to rise again , which will therefore increase inflation expectations, generate greater volatility, and, in this case, affect the outlook for the coming months.
He says he expects a volatile market, at least until the midterm elections, and considers it important that bond and oil yields peak and begin to decline. So he maintains a moderately bullish outlook, even though the big tech companies are correcting. He says there are other sectors that indicate the market maintains a good structure.
So above all, he emphasizes the importance of keeping an eye on the earnings season, continuing to monitor the market's breadth, and the technical trends that geopolitical headlines, in particular, may influence in the short term. So, well, today we've made this mix because I think it was worthwhile not just to focus on one voice, but on several, on several points of view, so that we have a much more global, much longer-term vision, like that of Ken Griffith, the CEO of Citadel, a very relevant voice on a global level, of course.
Updated reports from Fonstrat, not only from Tom Lee, but also from their technical analyst, Mark Newton. And of course, the report on one of the key sectors currently under the most pressure, which is the memory sector, the chip sector, everything related to artificial intelligence. Well, this is the report that JP Morgan has updated.
So, well, we're getting into current events now. Bank of America says there are record sales of individual shares. Last week, Bank of America customers sold a record amount of marketable income in this case. So the question is, why sales at tax loss? We are in the institutional season to be able to carry out those sales of perhaps some actions that can generate sales and that can therefore take advantage of that possible fiscal season.
So , this would also be one of the points to consider. Wells Fargo indicates that a buy signal has been issued for equities. It points out that the average historical gains when this indicator has been triggered by WS Fargo point to gains of over 2.4% in one month, 6% in three months, 10% in six months , and 17% in 12 months.
So, this West Fargo sentiment indicator signals a buy. important. As we said, Tesla's results beat expectations; earnings per share and revenue were also above expectations. Well, we also have to take into account the recent comments following that possible merger with SpaceX, which is actually starting to move and work.
There are already working groups exploring the possibility of a merger next year. Well, here's the full report, showing how Tesla's stock is currently falling. Meta also presented results yesterday. Revenues have increased by 26%. The most negative aspect, above all, is that the cash flow in the target area is falling.
Uh, it's important. The most positive thing is that Meta, in addition to beating expectations, has also said that it will perform a stock split. Hey, it's important because look at what Meta is trading at. It seems it was a two-to-one and it will be applied starting in January. So , well, we will undoubtedly be able to be an important factor, especially to lower the entry price for shares, in this case from Meta and we have IBM shares.
It has experienced considerable volatility following the release of results. It went up and then, well, now it's coming with falls. In fact, well, updating the data a bit, right now the meta is falling around 1.5%. 1.5% in premarket is what we have right now as an update. So, well, we'll see, especially heading into the opening, but keep in mind that there are three heavyweights there in terms of the movements in the indices.
Geopolitical news, as we were saying, uh yesterday we also learned that Putin has agreed uh to resume peace talks with Ukraine. A three-way meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could be arranged; this has not yet been developed, but at least that option is on the table. That three-way meeting could begin on November 10th.
Well, we'll see what happens, what comes out of this. Tesla Update: Tesla is down 5.4% in pre-market trading. This news generated some volatility yesterday. The Central Bank of Korea, which held a meeting yesterday, has kept interest rates unchanged, but notes that there could be a further increase in the current economic situation .
And in Japan, media outlets are saying that they will decide at their meeting next week whether or not the 2% target has been reached. Therefore, this could mean that they will leave interest rates unchanged. Bad session in Asia. We have seen widespread declines. IKEI, the market in China, we could say that it has entered a bear market.
Check out the session breakdown here. When it falls by more than 20%, we usually say that technically a market enters a bearish zone. So, this is the picture we have of the market, and now we're going to jump to our charts section. But mainly today, beyond analyzing what we do daily, what we would like to highlight, especially for those of you who join us daily for all the Morning Calls, is that, as we have been anticipating throughout the week, we have been anticipating the first and second targets that we have set for ourselves.
The first objective of the DAX was to reach 25400, which was this move. And yesterday in the Morning Call we said, "Look, because we have this bullish flag pattern here, and the DAX was therefore pointing towards this area. Look at the target. Well, I could have already closed it here: 25,650. Logically, we need to push this line a little higher now, and here we establish the volatility peaks.
But it's very interesting, very interesting, because , as we were saying, and above all, what we encourage you all to do is watch the previous videos, the previous morning calls, to see the starting point and how we analyzed the situation when we set the targets, how we potentially saw that possible movement, whether upward, downward, or whatever .
So, well, it's a... well, we make it especially useful because that way you can really benefit from not only seeing the result, which is obviously what will determine whether a trade has been successful or not, but also how we came to think that movement could occur. That's perhaps the most important part." It's interesting because tomorrow, next week, next month, the day after tomorrow, we can see the same structure repeat itself, and that's what's interesting—that we're prepared when the next opportunity arises.
Okay, the DAX, symmetrical triangle. As you can see on the daily chart, we've already reached our target. The DAX has good resistance here below the 700 zone where the price is holding. In this case, what we need to aim for is a breakout from that zone above 700. And well, for now, the pullback enters our zone, our zone that all of you who train with me daily know is our bootcamp zone.
So, it's the zone where we can rebuild that position and see if the fifth time's the charm. One, two, three, and on the fifth try, it manages to break this structure, which is now a symmetrical triangle. We were talking about the DAX, but the Eurostock 50 was very nice yesterday. Yesterday we established, we were around Here, right?
In the morning call, we were saying, "Keep an eye on the target," and watching how it ticked past our highs, how we reached our target in our projection . Now we're seeing this pullback. Logically, the markets have hit a significant resistance level, and there are renewed fears that the situation in the Middle East could escalate, that there could be renewed attacks between the United States, Iran, and Israel.
We know we have elections in the coming weeks in Israel, and then in November we'll be looking at the midterms, which, by the way, we'll be sharing with everyone tomorrow, especially those of you in the Audio and Markets section. We're going to share a special midterm report. Then we 'll make it public on our YouTube channel and other platforms, but starting tomorrow—and since we wo n't be able to be with you during the European session, the preceding American session— we'll be back with you all, mainly so we can use it as a possible guide to what we can expect.
Wait, especially because we 're already entering and heading into the week leading up to the midterm elections, so from now on, all the focus will undoubtedly be on the next Fed meeting, which is at the end of the month, although we're not entirely sure about that. But if we skip that meeting, and besides all the corporate earnings reports in between, which will be key, the main focus, in addition to geopolitics, will be the midterm elections.
So, we can still keep this Eurostock 50 chart open. What we need to remember is that it hit this resistance yesterday. So we'll continue looking for the same thing we did on Thursday the 8th and Tuesday the 20th: to use that support again until it breaks through, until it gives way. We're going to look to buy it.
Livex closed above yesterday, and now we're going back down. If it closes below here today, it invalidates this structure and things could certainly get complicated, but beyond that... So, what we can say is that the Ibex is probably telling us that it wasn't the channel we thought it was, but rather a possible symmetrical triangle.
Therefore, we're going to adapt to the price. We brought it down here, and well, what we have here, logically, is this gap, which is what the Ibex is struggling to overcome, right? Every time it enters here, it goes back. Here, the gap theory has worked. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, and eight times, but we should leave it as a swing.
The gap has worked eight times. The reaction, for now, hasn't been able to break the gap for the Ibex. So, well, we already know it's a relevant area, but in any case, we have a strong support here in the area above 900, so we'll keep looking. Well, logically, the first move if buying comes in is to return to the top of the triangle.
So, this is what we'll continue working on. Paris, well, Paris, especially the K40, notice, it follows the debt, in fact, the Debt, the risk premium has skyrocketed. The benchmark for French bonds, the main reference for French bonds, is above 5%, something not seen in France for over 20 years. Logically, the situation and the social unrest in France are also generating this tension, not only in the streets but also in the debt market.
And what we are seeing in the reaction is quite significant. For now, there have been no indications, at least from the European Central Bank, that any kind of intervention might be imminent, but naturally, we are awaiting the next meeting of the European Central Bank. We'll see what comes out of it, but right now there is growing concern about the high cost of debt.
Logically, the high deficit in France makes it very difficult right now to establish mechanisms for any kind of action, but of course, the European Central Bank could take specific action to try to calm the situation. High bond yields are rising in France. Right now, what we have is potential support in the area where it currently stands.
And the London Futures 100, well, it's returning to our zone, retesting it. This support zone is a new test . We're going to try to hold that zone, and we're sticking with the same idea: trying to reach the 18,800 euro/dollar level. Without catalysts, and with the situation in France, the global geopolitical situation, and of course the upcoming elections in important European countries, the euro is struggling to break out of this zone.
There isn't a catalyst right now that we can say is positive or negative in this case. So, we're mainly waiting to see what happens with Iran, because that will translate into strength or weakness for the US dollar, and that will help the euro rebound. But for now, the structure, the potential for a rebound, is here, but we're missing the other piece, which is...
A catalyst to achieve a movement in this case . Bitcoin. We were aiming very well; yesterday it was fantastic, and today we're back to square one, the 12 we're currently experiencing, and the 3. Let's hope buying starts here to return to the 86 zone. So, we're currently in key areas, seeing widespread pullbacks, retesting important support levels, and we'll see if buying starts again in the main crypto benchmarks.
As we were saying, crude oil is going back up. It's touched $100 again . As I told you yesterday, I opened a swing trade taking advantage of yesterday's entry into the $100 zone after yesterday's morning call . Today we're back in this zone, so we're there again. So, we're going to logically maintain this position, which has been mainly due to this news anticipating that they may resume possible attacks on Iran.
Uh, after the midterm elections, Trump, in his statements yesterday, left open the possibility that he wasn't Negotiating, but that there was going to be a solution one way or another. We don't know what that means. We know that Trump is very fickle in his statements. Maybe it's another pressure tactic to try to get Iran to make some kind of move.
But we'll be following it closely. In any case, from a technical point of view , the same area as yesterday is still valid. The stop loss has to be around here. This is the important thing, and what we need now is for the headlines to pick up again, especially to dispel the idea that it could return to that situation.
But anyway, we're in a very interesting technical situation. Those of you who know me already know that for me, this double rejection in this area, especially on a gap closure, is a big deal. Remember the gap we saw in the Ibex that reacted to the price eight times? This is the same, but in reverse.
A gap. Let's see if we can break this gap and from here, the selling pressure can take us to the area near, well, 93. I would exit, and I would be quite happy. But anyway , the goal would even be to reach the 92 zone, so we'll see about that. And gold is back at support again, so we're back to square one .
And well, here we have to ask ourselves again whether the circumstances are right from a fundamental perspective to consider buying gold or not . For now, we have support. There's an important confluence here. In fact, we're going to remove this so as not to be too distracting, but we have a very nice structure here, a possible channel with a confluence of support, but logically, we need the dollar to sell off so that gold, or the euro, can start to be bought in this case, especially from these interesting zones.
So, that's the picture we have of the market that we wanted to share with everyone. As we always say, well, thank you all for following us, for joining us, for supporting us. Yesterday we saw that many of you left a lot of comments on our YouTube channel. We appreciate it because we are also, well, considering how to give it an extra boost.
This morning call space, well, as you can see, we do it in a very thorough and serious way, very objectively when interpreting the news. Logically, the trading part is subjective because it's my personal opinion, but it's also based on a series of fundamentals and, of course, criteria. And you can all share and see how we do it every day, and we always do it live in real time.
There are no edited videos here , so what we're going to ask for is, of course, ideas on what you'd like, how you think this space could be improved, if you think we can change some things, especially to try to reach a larger number of traders, which is the goal, above all, to give Audiomercados greater visibility.
As you can see, the daily morning calls have a rather limited visibility, but that doesn't mean they're insignificant. Of course, we thank each and every one of you for sharing with us. We spend part of your morning listening to us, following us, reading us, and, of course, supporting us. So, we're throwing out this idea to you: share where you'd like to see more support, where you think we could help give Audiomercados and this morning call space a little more of a boost.
And of course, to everyone who joins me for the live training sessions , well, we'll see you in the next session. Yesterday's session was really great because all our charts... well , it's been a spectacular week in terms of analysis. We're navigating a period of high market volatility, and we're managing to reach our targets, and important targets at that, very ambitious targets, with a lot of gains in the trades and investments we're making and sharing daily.
So , we'll see you then, and as we always say, well, if we... You can leave a comment, a like, any kind of support when I close this video; it will all be welcome, okay? So, we'll be waiting for you and reading your comments very carefully, and we also hope to learn much more about you. Thank you very much.
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