Top 10 Best Investments for the Coming 2025 Recession.

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2025년 경기침체 대비 10가지 투자 아이디어를 제시. AI·로봇 확산으로 실업이 심화되는 깊은 침체가 올 수 있다고 주장. 로봇 관련 비상장 VC 투자, 프라임 모기지 및 모기지 대출사(Rocket, UWM, LDI, Redfin)가 금리 하락 시 유리하다고 봄. 러셀2000 등 소형주는 최악으로 평가, 단기국채·현금·고등급 회사채 선호. 장기 국채(TLT) 상승 베팅, 금 긍정·구리 부정, 암호화폐는 침체에 방어 불가로 봄, 주가 하락 베팅 및 자기계발 권고. (영상 자막 기준, 2024.11 작성)

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01. in this video I'm going to give you 10 Investments to or to not make in a recession we'll talk about the best and the worst let's get started number one robotics now this might sound crazy like why would you want to invest in robotics or robots in the next recession well that's because I believe this next recession is going to be very unique and this video is not going to be about why I think we're going to have a recession we know there is going to be another recession we don't know exactly when that's going to be but but this next recession will be the first real recession where we actually have broad-based use of artificial intelligence and potentially to some extent robotics as well this means industries from legistics Diagnostics underwriting any customer service or sales a slice maybe if it's only 10 20% still a lot of all of those workers might be replaced by artificial intelligence and Robotics especially in a recession see here's the real problem most companies don't like doing layoffs they prefer doing what are called quiet layoffs they're basically a way of saying we're going to make things a little less cushy and comfortable around here and kind of hope that you leave because it'll lower our costs which will increase our bottom line and frankly ever since we sort of opened up our economy to China costs for labor as a percentage of corporate profits have been plummeting in otherwise in well put in another way workers are making less money and corporations and stockholders are making more money now in a recession stockholders get punished we'll talk about that in just a moment but this will be the first recession where artificial intelligence and Robotics is at play to not contribute necessarily to the recession but to actually make the recession longer and harder to get out of see remember a recession is a period of time usually two quarters in a row of negative GDP and a period of time of uncharacteristically high employment unemployment see we actually had two quarters of negative GDP in 2022 q1 and Q2 but we didn't really call that a recession because the unemployment rate was really low around 3.3% so so it wasn't considered that we were in a recession even though stocks fell 30 to 70% certainly felt like we were going into a recession but people hav had enough money to keep spending up to some extent yeah growth estimates came down but nobody really got laid off during that quasi recession instead the recession that I'm talking about would be more of a Great Depression or 2008 style recession and this recession will be the hardest and will take the longest amount of time to get out of because ordinarily what happens in a recessionary period of time like what we saw during uh the 2003 era uh March of 2003 we had the Federal Reserve essentially bail out the stock market and companies started hiring again you had that happen in February of 2009 you had that happen in March of 20 uh 20 during covid uh to a smaller extent you had the bond uh bond market rescued by the Federal Reserve at the end of 2018 so the Federal Reserve is sort of known for trying to fed put the markets basically prop up hiring but the issue is companies right now may not be laying off heavily because they prefer that quiet laying off I talked about and what happens is they sort of wait to lay off until really everybody is laying off because then their stock prices get punished less and that means there's a higher likelihood of many companies laying off people rapidly all at the same time and the downside of that is where are those people going to get jobs we barely have enough jobs today to cover everybody who's unemployed getting a job if they were perfectly matched assuming all the job postings that are open today are actually open sometimes people forget to take job postings down happens a lot with you know the job posting websites like indeed and otherwise because those platforms sort of incentivize you to forget about your job posting so they can keep collecting Revenue it's a problem probably excuse some of the numbers but now imagine you add to you know say 6 million unemployed and 6 million job openings add you know 10% of people losing their jobs well that would be another 15 million you could be in a place of 21 million unemployed people and only 6 million jobs and if half of those are fake or disappear you've got 3 million jobs available for 21 million people your workers available to jobs ratio would be 7 to1 it would be a miserable miserable depression 21 million people unemployed would represent an unemployment rate of around 13.2% and it could happen very rapidly placing these people back into jobs in the era of Robotics and artificial intelligence is going to be hell it's going to be very very bad and this is why part of me is really tempted to expand my investments into robotics I'm doing due diligence right now on some robotics companies that are private and I might be making some VC Investments on top of the VC Investments I've already made into some of these robotics companies because I think some big changes are coming stay tuned to the channel we'll have more information on uh these deals that are going on number two let's talk mortgages H now this one doesn't sound as fun as robotics robotics I mean and I want to separate quickly robotics from AI I don't mean AI right I don't mean like investing in chat GPT at $158 billion when you know these language Nets are just going to be a dime a dozen in a few years in a few years Apple will have one Google's already got one Microsoft uses obviously uh open AI GPT uh Amazon's throwing money into anthropic which makes Cloud uh claw rather you've got um meta AKA Facebook and Mark Zach working on llama everybody's got their neuronet okay this this is not where you want to invest in my in my opinion everybody's gonna have a neural net that's not the place I'm talking real robotics like physical robots yeah that actually integrate these neural Nets that's a big one okay now we got to talk Mor mortgages I know I'm bluring these together a little bit here but I just wanted to clarify that to make that exceptionally clear I also kind of think the chip Market is played out because once the AI infrastructure is built out you're not going to see all these new orders for more and more and more AI so I think there's some downside risk there when that said let's talk mortgages now mortgages this sounds extremely boring why would somebody want to invest in mortgages ordinarily you wouldn't want to mortgages right now a lot of them are locked in at 3 to 3 and 1 12% some people even locked in 2.7% on their 30-year mortgages big fan of the 30-year mortgage you all know I'm a real estate broker a big real estate investor run a real estate startup big fan of real estate also financial advisor and you know I've got a bunch of broker dealer related licenses but the point of mortgages is mortgages actually go up in value especially the higher interest rate mortgages when interest rates come down so when interest rates come down we expect everybody who has a mortgage at four five 6 7 8% first of all their mortgage is going to be worth more than what it was previously obviously there's some risk because some people could end up having to default on their mortgages but if you get Prime rated mortgages your default risk is usually a lot lower you know subprime mortgages you want to stay away from but after Dodd Frank and the ability to repay I don't think the next recession is going to be a 2008 style recession I think most of the people who have the ability to repay are probably going to be able to at the very least make their mortgage payment it's not going to be the first payment they stop making they'll be much more likely to stop making their affirm buy now pay later loan payment than they are to stop paying their mortgage especially since they know that'll tank their credit and that they risk losing a valuable asset uh unless of course they're woefully upside down but again because of the ability to repay and because of prime mortgages I don't actually think this will be a real estate L crash that's why I think mortgages are so interesting now don't get me wrong markets like Texas and Florida they having idiosyncratic problems that means they're having their own problems where those markets were overbuilt during covid because everybody's going there for Freedom okay great well then you overbuild there with your freedom and now you've got a glut of Supply too much Supply prices come down not enough new people coming because now people also have at least some Freedom still in places like California we like to say cnia I'm from there so I feel like I can say it but anyway what are you going to do so my belief is that default risk on Prime mortgages is relatively low uh however what's interesting is the value of mortgages goes up as yields fall in the marketplace and in a recession I expect the long end of the curve to fall as well and then I think these mortgages will become more valuable but there's also refinance risk and this is why I specifically like companies that also originate mortgages so that way they're making a new loan and collecting the fee on that loan and so you get the best of both you get a company that has a mortgage that becomes more valuable as you enter a challenging environment assuming low defaults and if people end up refinancing hopefully before they lose their jobs you end up capturing that refinance revenue and then again you have a quality mortgage and I actually think if rates come down slowly because we slowly back into a recession then what you end up getting is potentially multiple refinances you know somebody refinances when rates Dro to 5% they refinance again when rates drop to 3% it's an idea some options you might consider looking at here and I've got some exposure to these just keep that in mind uh but rocket mortgage I think is probably your best positioned and the stock has been on sale lately United Wholesale Mortgage Company another one that's the number two one I'd Rank and I really rank these based on how much they actually have in on their balance sheet in the way of mortgages uh how much pricing power I think the actual brand has for doing loans and uh their servicing rights I sort of evaluate all of these on their balance sheets uh the most risky out of all of these but that has the most upside is probably a lan Depot uh that's uh ldi is the ticker for that you could also potentially play a stock like red fin because they do mortgages but you have to be really careful with this one it's a lot more volatile it's a great company and it's not going anywhere but it definitely has downside risk as well because they make a lot of their money from actual transactions less so mortgages but they might be able to ramp their Mortgage business really well during a recession so mortgages are an interesting play for me uh especially residential that's the other thing the companies that I mentioned here they all pretty much focus on prime lending not subprime ability to repay lending and they focus on residential real estate you kind of want to stay away even from multi family I'm a big fan of uh single family right now okay uh next option oh uh I guess another thing to look at here uh you know selfish Shameless plug if you will right here uh I actually think the investment option that we have opened for house hack right now house hack.com is really ideal because it's a convertible Bond basically but uh if we go public at some point in the future you get pretty much all of the upside because you get converted to stock so you get all of the upside but while we're not converted you get paid 5% interest because you own a bond and because the company basically has I don't know less than 4% debt which is very very low uh it's a company that we believe we'll do very well in our session be able to pick up some sweet deals so check that out house act.com not a solicitation here go read the PPM over there uh there's a deadline on that one for December 13th by the way okay um so number three stay away this this would be a bad one so I think robotics good private Investments maybe in robotics mortgages there's risk here but I think there's a lot of upside here as well a lot more than people recognize because this is not going to be the single family crash this is I think there's there's a dip opportunity on mortgage companies right now just because rates have gone so high and I think they're really topping out but we'll talk more about rates in a moment another one that I would avoid or the first one that I would avoid would be small cap stocks I actually think small cap stocks like your Russell 2000 would probably be your absolutely worst investment right now the Russell 2000 is sitting at one of the highest percentages yet for unprofitable small caps with up to 40% % potentially not able to pay their debts with the income they're making this makes them zombie companies worst of all these smaller companies are small for a reason it's because either they're new which makes them more at risk or they're small because they've just never been able to grow up into a big boy or big girl some of these companies have been small caps for decades and they just don't grow up this puts them most at risk of disruption and getting replaced during a recession just straight up going bankrupt so out of all of them Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ small caps are probably the most Reckless investment that you could make in the stock market right now and look while it's sexy to say oh Trump is going to save the world or you know hey uh there'll never be a recession again or whatever well it's sexy to say that and it's really fun especially when the stock market's going up you got to be aware of your downside risks as well because there's no such thing as a riskless investment and this if we're going into a recession I just think is a reckless investment to make of course nothing in this video is personalized Financial advice that's just my take number four I like cash now this sounds crazy a lot of people get mad at me when I say cash but cash you know they go oh cash is trash cash is not trash cash is opportunity see the reason uh Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett have done so well is not because they could read the best balance sheet it's because they wait they have so much patience to wait for really good deals and when those really good deals come up they have the cash to buy and that makes me very excited now Warren Buffett himself doesn't actually go straight into Cash he prefers shortterm treasuries less than one year in duration now one of the reasons those are nice is because you generally have good liquidity you have low risk of principal loss and the one-year treasury right now at least when I last checked uh yeah it's yielding a pretty good yield the one-year treasury as of the recording of This is yielding 4.4% which is crazy that's a pretty high number in my opinion and the six-month treasury is yielding 4.5% now those numbers could change over time but even if they're yielding 2% I think they're a good opportunity for parking cash because if you put money into a money market like a VXX a Vanguard money market style fund uh it's possible that those rates are going to plummet very very quickly so if you can lock in 4.5% for a year or 4.3% or whatever it is right now for a year and then in 6 months they drop rates substantially at least you have another 6 months of that yield or just have straight cash sitting in like a you know Robin Hood or whatever the danger with that is if it's in Robin Hood you're probably going to swipe up some stocks and blow it number five uh high quality corporate bonds uh now one of the nice things about high quality corporate bonds is usually in a recession liquidity is so tight that you can generally get really discounted Bonds on great companies that aren't going to go bankrupt like apple for example and you can often get because bonds will sell at a discount account when people need liquidity you'd often get some of these high quality corporates at excellent yields potentially 8 n 10% 11% on like an apple corporate should be buying these all day long now they're not always available and you have to hunt for these and so this one's a little bit more nuanced Niche talk to your financial adviser or your Banker about high Guild Bond options and uh I'm sure they'll have a whole menu for you to pick from if I wanted High uh high quality corporate bonds I just call up my Bankers over at JPM and ask for help you could probably do the same wherever you Bank they're plenty of advisers that would love to help you especially at Banks they've got plenty of portfolio products for this or market products as well number six now this one is you know people defer on this one just straight up longer term treasury bonds so technically in a recession you usually see bond yields across the Curve come down let's assume this right here is like your 20 and 30 year this side and this is like your two-year treasury when you have an inverted yield curve it means that your shorter term is actually higher than your longer term that's broken that's a warning sign of recession well in a recession usually both go down but the 2-year yield Falls faster that means even though the 2030 year yields coming down those mortgage rates are coming coming down as well you're getting the two falling faster so some people like to invest in the 2-year but I don't actually think as an investment the two years is a great option it's too cash-like so instead what I like is investing in uh the longer term uh treasury bonds because I personally expect this next recession is going to be deflationary not inflationary a lot of people have different opinions than me on this and that's okay this is just my take my take is this will be a deflationary recession that comes and the longer on the curve you are the more principal appreciation you'll see talk about that in just a moment but some options that you could look at if you wanted to uh this is not sponsored I have no affiliation with them but you could just go to US Treasury etf.com US Treasury etf.com they have a nice um option here 5 year 7 year 10 year 20 year another option if you want to compare would be like a TLT which would be a 20- year comparable to the utw Y over here uh TLT is a really interesting one because it it has a lot more liquidity and one of the things you could do just because they don't move that rapidly actual bond prices you know you might get like 10% Bond swings in a matter of 4 months that's not like a meme stock you know it's kind of a low movement uh but what I like doing is I like going out on the Chain uh and I I'll be frank like I bought some January 2026 versions of these uh 428 days out I overpaid for them because I bought them when TLT was uh a little expensive a couple months ago so I made a little oopsies here but I'm still very excited about this because I actually think TLT will go to 120 my base case is 120 uh you know my bare case is 105 to 110 uh and I know we're at 90 now so you can buy the dip on that but I'm saying over the next year and uh and then my bull case is that these are going to go back to 140 150 bucks uh this particular security which makes options extremely desirable I think that'll be a very very large payout on them no guarantees obviously the timing could just be wrong and I might close that position and flip-flop on it sooner but right now uh I'm very bullish on on this because now I get a leveraged move on the longer end of the curve with options I get I get a leveraged option on the longer end of the curve which I think will come down in recession with the two the two will go more rapidly but because the principal doesn't move as much I'm not really going to play options here I'm going to play options here and I've got liquidity I need liquidity and I need movement in a recession for this bet to really play out might even go by the dip honestly on some of these uh these options that I have so we'll see okay so uh that is uh number six number seven this one is a good and bad so the good is because well the topic here has to do with commodities the good is going to be your gold maybe even silver or platinum your precious metals precious metals in a recession almost always do exceptionally well the nice thing about gold is it does well if you have inflation and it does does well if you have recession does well in both cases now I personally don't think we're going to have a second wave of inflation even when the Federal Reserve starts stimulating with quantitative easing so that's why I chose bonds instead of gold I also think gold has run quite a bit here on this fear of uh you know a second wave of inflation or whatever so I think the pricing is undesirable at this position then there are bad Industrial Metals these are going to be things like copper uh and other Industrial Metals because usually in a recession those will plummet because production slows down that should be pretty straightforward number eight crypto is not going to be your protector in a recession cryptocurrencies and nfts and meme coins momentum coins I like to call them are going to do exceptionally well in a bullish Market bullish stock market bullish stock market at all-time highs high levels of greed high levels of options playing and speculative appetite and the belief that everything is roses going forward and there will only be Perfection going forward cryptocurrencies are great in that environment and they will continue to hit all-time new highs over and over and over again until of course the party stops and when the party stops digital gold allaha Bitcoin will not protect you I do not unfortunately believe that in a recession certainly any momentum coin uh like a mcoin uh and certainly not uh your your um your frankly your Bitcoins and your ethereum do not or or nfts I do not believe any of these are going to protect you in a recession they don't protect you against inflation at this point at least and I think they really are more of an order book at this point of to some extent greed in euphoric times that is great when things are great but it can get bad very very very rapidly in a recession especially one that lasts much longer than the co recession so I would just be cautious in crypto when it comes to recessionary environment and anything that I owned that I was nervous about I would just set good to cancel stop losses so if I broke below a certain point automatically just sells number nine now don't get me wrong I I just want to be clear crypto okay in a in a bullish you know momentum environment number nine a good investment could potentially be momentum to the downside so something that people like to do and bearish environments is they will go out on the option curve usually about 60 to 150 days and they will buy puts they'll buy puts on highly valued companies they'll take you know some of the favorites I hate to say it it's not to be you know angry or evil to these companies it's just they have high valuations Costco very high valuation Wing Stop very high valuation uh you've got uh paler Tesla these are all companies with very rich valuations right now uh and these rich valuations will probably compress very rapidly in a recession and you could catch that momentum to the downside you catch that momentum to the downside you might be able to play it with options or even straight shorts just be careful everybody hates a bear so you really don't want to tell anyone that you're shorting number 10 investing in yourself now I know this is crazy I've got a bunch of courses obviously over at meetkevin.com I send trade alerts I send trade ideas I do fundamental analysis and I talk with my course members every day the market is open about fundamental analysis and what the next steps of the current EC economic state or what plays are potentially considerable and uh what you might want to pay attention to you can join any of those over at Meek kevin.com but no frankly if you want to protect yourself from that investment number one Robotics and you want to protect yourself you got to get more Skillets and you got to do things robots can't do yet be a pilot be an AI programmer become a robotics programmer go to school for mechanical engineering get a side hustle in these things even you you realize you don't even have to go learn this like like uh um you know try to teach yourself some of these things uh and it doesn't have to be your primary job you could take a course take a class take a something to elevate your education and something else as a hedge uh to what it is that you do so for example if you're a real estate agent maybe you want a side hustle going doing some night classes and nursing just saying if you really have a hard time in sales maybe this will be a backup option for you I'm not saying that what you want to do you might think I'm crazy for saying it but hey worst case scenario you get a 2-year degree or license and something that's functional and it's always a fallback uh the other op and you can still use your real estate license for your own deals now you have a W2 you can qualify with another thing to consider is trades learn how to do trades Electrical Plumbing HVAC framing Roofing handyman work anything that you could do to get your butt on Yelp on upwork i o Yelp stock by the way is very cheap right now uh so is end phase but topic for a different video uh whatever you can do to get your butt uh advertised as someone who's available for hire and you're insulated from AI you know AI ain't going to replace my Outlets anytime soon that is something I I would consider because you the last thing you want is your income to dry up so there you have it 10 Investments for recession or not Investments you know selling some of them and buying some others might be good but these are my thoughts do whatever you'd like quick recap robotics mortgages stay away from Bad small caps short-term treasuries and cash High Yield Corporate bonds longer term treasury bonds uh bad Commodities and good Commodities good being gold bad being copper bad crypto nfts uh number nine the only momentum you want is not upside momentum but downside momentum and number 10 investing in yourself if you found this video helpful make sure to subscribe