Is Taiwan Semiconductor an Undervalued Stock to Buy? | TSM Stock Analysis

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TSMC 주가는 최근 $315 고점 대비 약 $290에 거래되며 AI 수요로 연초 대비 강세. 그러나 10월 매출 성장률 둔화, 지정학 리스크, 경쟁 심화(Intel, GlobalFoundries)가 부담. 해외 공장 투자로 매출총이익률이 약 58%에서 53%로 하락 전망. DCF 내재가치는 $172로 고평가, 선행 PER 20·선행 PCF 15는 적정 수준으로 판단. 종합 의견은 보유(Hold).

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Taiwan Semiconductor stock is now trading at around $290 per share after rising as high as $315 per share. The stock is performing excellently year-to-date in 2025 as demand for artificial intelligence continues to increase a lot more than was initially expected to begin the year. Investors are asking me, "What do I think about the stock now?

02. Do I think it's a buy, hold, or sell? What are the long-term tailwinds and headwinds that are impacting this company?" I'll answer those questions here in this video. I want to thank The Motletock is facing headwinds over the previous 4 to 5 weeks despite some positive developments in that time. Most notably, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited TSMC to discuss increasing wafer production due to soaring demand for artificial intelligence.

03. Taiwan Semiconductor does the manufacturing for Nvidia. Nvidia famously outsources its manufacturing to companies like TSMC. Now, Nvidia recently reported quarterly earnings results, which generated revenue billions of dollars above what management was forecasting. And in the upcoming quarter, Nvidia has forecasted revenue at 4 or 5 billion dollars more than what Wall Street was initially expecting.

04. Overall, nearly every company operating in this AI ecosystem in 2025 has reported figures above what we were expecting, and expectations were already pretty remarkable going into 2025. Despite those bullish sentiments, investors are becoming more concerned with Taiwan Semiconductor. One of those impediments was when Taiwan Semiconductor reported October sales figures at $11.9 billion.

05. That was the slowest growth rate for the company since February of 2024. So, while revenue is increasing at the company, the pace of increase is slowing down. Furthermore, there's increasing geopolitical tension between the United States, Taiwan, and China, and that's always been weighing on the company, well, at least in the previous 5 years.

06. It's been weighing on the company as investors are concerned about how those risks could impact the company. And then, of course, you've got increasing competition from companies like Global Foundries and to a lesser degree Intel investing aggressively expanding its capability to manufacture and offer third-party services to companies that are looking to hire manufacturing of semiconductor chips.

07. Intel hasn't started gaining market share just yet, but it's building the capability in order to attract market share, and Nvidia has already partnered with Intel. And so, there is a concern with increasing competition. However, I will say Taiwan Semiconductor is by far the best manufacturing company in my list of companies that I follow.

08. It boasts excellent performance metrics, whether you look at , operating cash flow, return on assets. I could throw out a myriad of metrics, and Taiwan Semiconductor performs excellently across the board. Tailwinds for the company will persist for decades, in my opinion, as we're growing into a world where we're using increasing computing capabilities, whether it be in our devices like iPads and smartphones and and tablets and laptops and desktops and even expanding beyond that to smart devices and devices wearables like watches and rings and headphones and glasses, and we're expanding into driverless car technology, all of which is going to require more computing power, more semiconductor chips, and that's going to be a tailwind for Taiwan Semi for many years, if not many decades.

09. So, I'm bullish on those prospects. The downside, the headwinds for Taiwan Semiconductor, relates to the geopolitical tension. And to offset some of that, Taiwan Semiconductor, you've probably noticed, is investing and expanding its manufacturing facilities outside of Taiwan. So, they recently built manufacturing facility in the United States in Arizona, and they're expanding that facility.

10. They already started production there, and they're also building facilities in Japan and in Europe. And management said that those plans are going well. However, those facilities come with higher production cost. And so, management has forecasted that its gross profit margin will fall from roughly 58% where it has been down to around 53% in the long run.

11. So, they're going to face a roughly 10% impact on their gross profit margin as a result of diversifying their supply chain outside of Taiwan. One of the reasons they're doing that is because their customers are also asking for it. Companies like Nvidia and Apple are asking Taiwan Semiconductor to have facilities outside of Taiwan to diversify and de-risk their supply chains.

12. So, what do I think about the stock at $290? Well, my intrinsic value per share calculation has the business worth $172. So, based on my DCF, this stock looks overvalued. But I also like to look at valuation on a forward price-to-earnings multiple or forward price-to-OCF multiple, and I retrieve those ratios from fiscal.ai.

13. They're actually running a Black Friday promotion where you'll get 30% off their services. There's a link in the description if you're interested. Taiwan Semi is trading at a forward PE of 20 and a forward price-to-OCF of 15, which looks about fairly valued based on its performance compared to its risks.

14. If it didn't have this much risk associated with the supply chain and the need to diversify the supply chain and the declines in margins it will likely cause, I would say this business should be trading at higher multiples and higher valuations, but those risks are weighing on the company keeping the valuation muted.

15. So, all that being said, while I do really appreciate this company and the excellence it provides in manufacturing, I think the valuation is a little too much for me to rate as a buy given the headwinds and risks associated in the near term. So, I will reiterate my hold rating on Taiwan Semi on November 26th, 2025.

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