저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Peter Schiff은 금 가격이 1300~1350달러를 돌파하면 암호화폐 버블이 꺼지는 핀이 될 수 있다고 주장한다. 암호화폐 시가총액은 1000억 달러를 넘었고 비트코인 점유율은 약 45%다. 비트코인은 900달러대까지 올랐다가 2000달러 안팎으로 되돌렸다. 금이 정체된 사이 암호화폐가 올라 투자자들이 금 대신 암호화폐를 사고 있다는 것이 그의 가설이다. 암호화폐 유동성은 얇아 일부 자금만 이탈해도 가격이 급락할 수 있다고 경고한다. 금·은이 오르면 차익 실현 자금이 금속으로 옮겨갈 수 있다는 논리다. 그는 자신의 금 사업 이해관계를 인정하면서도 정직성을 강조하며, 포트폴리오의 5~10%를 금에 두라고 권한다. 암호화폐 관련 직접 매수·매도 추천은 없고, 금 가격 방향과 암호화폐 조정 가능성에 대한 조건부 전망이다.
다듬은 글
of course also as the price of gold was breaking out so too was the crypto currencies but I was watching these crypto currencies I mentioned it again last time because I'm not just watching a Bitcoin I'm watching all these coins whatever they're named I mean there's hundreds of them but the total market cap of all the Kryptos a few days ago broke above 100 billion you know for the first time and Bitcoin was still holding on to about a forty five percent market share of of that total but we almost got to think maybe we made a new high we didn't quite get to a thousand for the price of Bitcoin I know we got up to nine hundred and something I don't remember the exact eye but it was you know well above nine hundred and you know we pull back a little bit I mean as I'm recording this we're back below twenty twenty eight hundred twenty seven seventy seven or something like that but we had this big rise in all these cryptos right and I don't know but I am thinking that if this gold breakout proves to be legitimate if the price of gold really takes out thirteen hundred and then 1350 it could actually be the the pin that pricks that the crypto bubble and one of the reasons that I think that of course you know I couldn't be wrong right I mean bubbles can get bigger and bigger and bigger but one possibility is that one of the reasons that a lot of people have been attracted to the Kryptos is because they've seen that gold has been stagnating as Kryptos have been rising so people who are worried about fiat currencies worried about the dollar worried about central banks who would normally be buying gold as a hedge against that since gold has apparently not worked well relative to these crypto currencies I bet there is a significant percentage of the crypto buyer who is buying crypto currencies instead of gold I mean maybe they're buying it in addition to gold but some of them might be buying it instead of gold or maybe some people who would normally be buying maybe five thousand dollars with a gold let's say they put half into crypto sand half a tickle I don't know but I bet that the Kryptos have unbalanced taken some demand away from gold now I know a lot of people who want to criticize me I look at my on my youtube channel I see the comments a lot of people say Oh Peter champey you know he doesn't like Bitcoin just because it competes with gold and he's a gold salesman and so he's going to criticize it and look people ought to know that there's one thing they can trust about me is my honesty if I actually believe that this stuff was going to work I'd be the first one to say it I mean I am not first and foremost a gold sale but I mean gold is a small part of my business I tell people they should own five to ten percent of their portfolio in gold what do I have then what do they do in the other 80 to 90 percent I'm invested in the stock markets maybe not the US stock market but I have people in stocks all around the world and you know so I have an investment thesis that I think makes sense if I thought cryptocurrency should be part of someone's portfolio remember I didn't even start my gold company until 2010 so I was telling people to buy gold before I had a gold company I was telling him to buy it go - I was just saying go buy gold I think you know I just was letting people buy it wherever they want in fact one of the reasons that I didn't set up shift gold was because I found out that so many of my clients were getting ripped off by the companies that they chose to buy their gold from you know I was sending people to other gold companies I didn't have any one particular company I was referring people to I just figured that they would shop around and get a good buy I didn't realize that so many of them are getting ripped off so that I finally started shift gold - to prevent that from happening but you know so my skepticism when it comes to Bitcoin is look it's the same of my skepticism when I was skeptical of all the dot-com stocks in the 1990s I was a stock broker believe me I could have made a lot more money if I bought all these calm stocks for my clients after all that's what they wanted to buy I to spend all my time talking him out of it so I always you know my integrity is important and I and I call them like I see them you could disagree with the calls that I'm making but you cannot criticize the integrity in what I'm doing I'm not just saying one thing and doing the other I'm telling people the truth I don't have an ulterior motive yes do I make money when people buy go for me yes I do but if I thought that buying cryptocurrencies was better than gold or certainly you know as good or should be I would basically be telling people yeah put it you know go put a few percent of your net worth there as well I mean I'm not going to alter that based on the fact that that I have a gold business but getting back to this line of thinking if I'm right and if a lot of people you know who would otherwise have bought gold are buying Kryptos and let's say the price of gold all of a sudden skyrocket starts to move up 1350 it's moving up now some people might think you know what I've got these big gains in my crypto currencies gold is now just starting to move so let me take some of my profits in these crypto currencies and use them to buy some gold because now maybe gold is going to catch up you know maybe gold is going to have a big move the Kryptos move first and gold and silver going to move second so let me take a little of my profits I don't even dump all my Kryptos let me just sell some of my Kryptos take some of that money and buy some gold and silver right and let's say maybe five percent of the people who own bitcoins or five percent of the bitcoins or all the crypto currencies right now just Bitcoin but let's say five percent of the market is up for sale because those people decided that now they want to jump on gold and silver because now they're going to catch up the cryptos have already moved now gold and silver are about to move here's the problem there is not a lot of liquidity in these crypto currencies I mean you get 5% of the market that wants out you think there's another you think there's new money coming in to pick up that those offers no not on your life I mean you see sometimes I mean after Bitcoin initially got as high as like twenty nine hundred you know within a couple of days it was back at 1900 I mean it dropped the thousand dollars in a day or so how much was the volume well how much selling did it actually take to do that I don't think very much so if I'm right if all of a sudden gold and silver breakout and now there's more enthusiasm cuz I've heard a lot of people's like oh you know gold and silver are good they're manipulated and so I'm buying these Kryptos because there's no manipulation there and so you could really get the appreciation because for central banks and all the short sellers they're not letting gold and silver go up and once they start to see it go up that could change and again I'm not saying that people are going to say hey I want to get rid of all my crypto currencies and put it all in gold and silver but enough people that own them may say hey I'm going to take a percentage of my Kryptos and sell so I can buy gold or silver well if enough people do that then you can have a very very big drop in price and then we'll see I mean will the markets recover from that drop and make new highs or will this have been the peak and will the gold and silver rally ironically be the pin that pricks that crypto bubble you
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