저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 정부의 부양책과 재정적자가 경제를 약화시키므로 지출 확대 대신 저축·생산·투자로 전환해야 한다는 주장. [재정·부양책 비판] - Schiff: 부양책은 일시적 GDP 상승만 만들고 부채를 늘려 근본 문제를 악화시켰다는 입장. - 중국 외환보유고(약 2.5조 달러, GDP의 약 60%)를 언급하며 미국 부채를 지원하는 해외 자금이 한계에 가까워지고 있다고 경고. - 공식 국가부채 14조 달러 외에도 패니메이·프레디맥 약 6조 달러 등 장외 부채와 사회보장·메디케어·오바마케어 우발채무가 있다고 지적. [경기 판단] - Horowitz: 미국 재정 수치가 그리스 등 유럽 국가 수준에 근접하고 있으며 크루그먼식 부양 처방을 비판. - Helman: 공식 대공황 가능성은 근거가 약하고, 주택시장 불안과 유동성 회복 미흡으로 이중침체 우려는 존재한다고 봄. [고용·소비] - 실업률 9.6% 수준, 1조 달러 이상 부양 후에도 약 1,500만 명 실업 상태라는 점을 두고 논쟁. - Helman은 CBO 추정 250만 개 일자리 보전·2~4% GDP 상승 효과를 근거로 부양 효과를 옹호. - Schiff는 소비자가 과소비를 멈추고 저축해야 경제가 회복된다고 주장. [리스크·출연자 전망] - 재정적자 방치 시 유럽식 위기 또는 남미·짐바브웨식 경로로 갈 수 있다는 경고. - 기업의 현금 사재기(약 1.8조 달러)가 고용 회복을 막고 있다는 지적. - 투자 불확실성(오바마케어 등 규제)이 기업 투자를 위축시킨다는 주장. [투자 관련 발언] 특정 종목·자산에 대한 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 거시 경제 비관론(재정위기·부채 우려)만 제시됨.
다듬은 글
Tom woods argues that states have the rights of the five federal laws there's something else you have a right to know about the Constitution there's a reason we look to the judicial branch to defend the Constitution neither the other two branches of government is going to do it Congress will do just about anything to get reelected which usually means doling out cash to anybody who'd be grateful to receive it and presidents increase the power of the executive branch even after criticizing their predecessors for having too much power the current administration has not given up the unlimited surveillance powers of the Bush years for instance more about that later in the show but first Wow take a look at these images g20 protesters in Canada essentially causing chaos did not because they want less government because they want more handouts and we see even worse images coming out of Greece and other European nations so what about America are we any better off than the rest of the planet these days and is our government any smaller than it was a year or two ago we're talking to Senate candidate from Connecticut and author of how an economy grows and why it crashes a great great primer on economics Peter Schiff economist Steve Harwick and political scientist Carolyn Alva health and Carolyn first to you is there any significant difference between the supposedly capitalist United States and the supposedly shall we say social democratic European countries these days well sure there are many differences but in terms of the economy I think what differentiates us is the fact that we now have a structural deficit problem you know President Clinton ran a budget surplus President Bush actually increased discretionary spending forty eight percent three tax cuts later in addition to implementing a program the prescription drug benefit program that we can't pay for and two wars you know President Obama now has a structural deficit problem on its hands that will take years and years to shift for so in that sense professor Horowitz are you surprised to hear a supporter of president obama and a supporter of Kimsey and economics and a supporter of the paul krugman view of the world saying the debt is too high and we might be on the verge of a depression I'm not surprised at all I mean one look at the numbers will tell you our numbers are rapidly approaching what we see in Greece and other in other places around the world the problem of course with people like Krugman is like a like an old medical practitioner who thinks that the cure for everything is leeches and then when the leeches don't work he says well we just didn't use enough leeches Peter I think that you know what we need Peter Schiff what we need to do is to get off this spending and stimulus bandwagon got it is the it is the concept that you can cure a problem caused by too much borrowing and spending with more borrowing and spending now old-hat are the big government types starting to recognize that well maybe they are Europe but not in the United States you know we still understand that the stimulus is the reason the economy is so sick and the more the government stimulates it the more debt they put into the economy the more they encourage more government more regulation more spending the weaker the underlying fundamentals come of our economy you know instead of looking at the protests in Europe be a look at China because that's more significant you know the Chinese have two and a half trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves that's 60 percent of their GDP I mean the Chinese are getting tired of supporting our economy imagine if we try to do that here if we tried to raise their so amount of money that's eight and a half trillion dollars that's $30,000 per person or one hundred and twenty thousand dollars per family the numbers are mind-boggling Caroline and I put words in your mouth or do you agree with your colleague Paul Krugman that we are on the verge of a depression and if you do why are we on the verge of a depression you know I actually I actually disagree I don't think that there's evidence that we're on the verge of a depression perhaps a double-dip recession given the fact that the housing market which got us into this mess has not stabilized and liquidity has not returned to pre-recession levels but this notion that stimulus spending put up here that's simply inaccurate the stimulus spending only accounts for 10 percent of the deficit this is a long-term problem it's one that President Obama don't understand you don't understand when the stimulus started the stimulus have created the housing problem happened under George Bush in 2001 in 2002 when we stimulated our way out of the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble we keep having bigger and bigger rounds of government stimulus and it isn't a housing market that caused it the government the Federal Reserve Fannie and Freddie caused mr.
Horowitz how could anybody claim seriously hung on Carolyn professor Horowitz how could anybody claim seriously that the stimulus has helped us about President Obama has been in office for a year and a half spent a trillion dollars we still have 15 million people out of work right and in fact unemployment still remains higher than Obama's Obama ministration said it would be if we didn't have the stimulus so I mean clearly that this isn't working yeah it's only a small part of the total debt and and mr.
chips absolutely right that this goes back along a longer way but I think the real problem is is that even the things that the Obama administration is doing that aren't expensive are making the business climate much worse by the health care reform and the rest have just created an environment which nobody wants to invest cuz they don't know what's coming that got it I'd like the three of you to stick around so if you could remind us why the stimulus spending was a good idea it's hard to argue sometimes things would have been a lot worse alright so people kind of say yeah but unemployment still at nine point six yes but it's not 12 or 13 or 15 people say well you know the stock market didn't fully recover yeah but it's recovered more than people expected last year when asset a Town Hall if all the recent stimulus spending is working President Obama gave a 14 minute long answer which included the claim that all economists say yes the stimulus is working a panel of freedom fighters might not all agree with that we're talking to Connecticut Senate candidate and author of how an economy grows and why it crashes Peter Schiff economist Steve Horowitz and political scientist Carolyne Heldman Carolyn can you defend what the president just said are things actually better off after a trillion dollars worth of printed money being spent out there in the past 18 months absolutely Jed so we can look at employment the CBO estimates that 2.5 million jobs were saved or added to the on me in addition to that there's a two to four percent boost in GDP as a result of the stimulus so the notion that it's done nothing is simply inaccurate Peter Schiff what do you say about that well the stimulus has done a lot of harm in fact it's an economic sedative the fact that it caused a temporary boost in GDP as we spent all that borrowed money now it means that not only do we have to address the problems of the past but now the new problems created by the stimulus we are deeply indebted than we now than we were before the stimulus we have more problem all of its always stimulated with government spending and consumption and we dug ourselves into a deeper hole real economic stimulus comes from savings production and investment and we're inhibiting that professor Horowitz in a recent poll by Rasmussen in which the American public a scientific sample was asked which worries you the most terrorism or the debt they finished in a tie are you surprised that in 2010 the American public is finally worried about how are we going to pay back 14 trillion dollars I'm not surprised right when it gets up to 14 trillion that that's a lot of money and folks are seeing their own budgets having to be cut and they have difficulty understanding how they're cutting their own budgets well at the same time government keeps spending and spending and spending and the real problem here is that you can always boost GDP by spending money but that's the problem with GDP the real problem we face right now is as mr.
Schiff said getting production going again and shifting resources out of the areas where they've been miss allocated for the last 10 or 20 Caroline what do you say to them with nothing to solve the problem what do you say to the 15 million people that are still out of work notwithstanding all this money that has been spent or the people that got part-time jobs for two or three months under the stimulus spending only to go back on the unemployment rolls when the government cash stops coming in well judge I think the government has done what it can do consumer confidence has gone back to nearly pre-recession level so consumers have done what they should be doing I think the issue here is the businesses they're stockpiling 1.8 trillion dollars meaning that they're not hiring they're concerned about a possible double-dip recession and as a result they're making that happen so I think that businesses need to step up and start hiring because you know we're out we're shopping again our real wages have increased slightly I think that it's important that businesses do their part Peter Schiff well that's the velocity consumers have to stop shopping we've shopped too much we're broke they have to start saving that's the problem that's the only way to restore the economy but every time the Kessler who cigars innovating the government tries to stimulate them into spending when they're already broke professor Horowitz were you surprised that the president seemed embarrassed last week in Canada when he reluctantly said we've got to start with slow down spending and every other national leader there said we've got to stop the spending at the rate we're doing it yeah yeah I mean we're the outliers now we used to be the outliers on on the other side but we're the ones who haven't recognized the fiscal reality in front of us if we don't get a handle on this situation and do it soon we are going to end up walking down the same path that we've seen in some of the European countries he should be embarrassed Peter well I think we're going to be working down the path seen in some of the Latin American countries or maybe in Zimbabwe and you know the national debt isn't just 14 trillion that's a tip of a huge iceberg what about all the off-budget debt like the six trillion we're on the hook for for Freddie and Fannie what about all the contingency liabilities for Social Security Medicare and now this new Obamacare got it got a Carolyne Heldman Peter Chef Steve Horowitz thanks for sticking with us you
Comments 0