저자: PeterSchiff/DonLuskin · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 지방채(뮤니시펄 본드)는 주정부·지자체의 연금·의료 약속 부담으로 위험하며, 피터 쉬프는 보유를 피하라고 권고하고 돈 러스킨은 공황 수준은 아니라고 봄. 메러디스 휘트니의 지방채 경고와 관련해 쉬프는 주정부가 연금·의료 혜택을 과도하게 약속해 세금으로 감당이 어렵고, 디폴트 아니면 연방 구제 중 하나라고 봄. 이 때문에 고객에게 지방채 매도를 수년간 권해왔다고 말함. 러스킨은 '멜트다운', '위기'라는 표현을 쓰지 않았다며 과장을 경계하고, 경기 회복이 문제를 다소 줄인다고 주장. 캘리포니아가 '그리스'라고 불리지만 실제로는 문제없다고 반박. 쉬프는 금리 상승 시 주정부뿐 아니라 연방정부도 상환 압박을 받고 연준이 채권 매입에 나서 돈을 찍을 것이라고 예측. 이는 원자재 가격 상승으로 이어진다고 봄. 쉬프는 구제가 되더라도 지방채는 화폐 증발로 가치가 떨어져 손해라고 주장. 금·은·원자재·외화 투자로 이동하라고 권고. 러스킨은 대선 후 지방채가 크게 매도된 점과 정치적 구제 가능성 하락을 언급. 파산 위험 주는 주는 주로 민주당 강세 주라고 지적. 쉬프는 연준이 의회 우회로 구제할 수 있다고 봄(TARP·자동차 기업 사례 인용). 러스킨은 연준은 역사적으로 은행 위기 시 최후의 대부자 역할을 해왔다고 반박. 두 사람은 결국 정치적 위험과 연준 개입 가능성에 대해 이견을 보이며 마무리.
다듬은 글
that was financial analyst Meredith Whitney, on CBS's 60 Minutes. It was her frightening forecast about the municipal bond market, sparking fears of a bond meltdown. Let me remind you, though, that she is not the first to sound the alarm. Take a listen to what the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, had to say about it last June.
I would rate states and major municipalities... I mean, if the federal government will step in to help them, they're triple-A. If the federal government won't step in to help them, who knows what they are? I don't know how I would rate those myself. I mean, in other words, it's a bet on how the federal government will act over time. Wow. So will the federal government come to the rescue? Just how freaked out should you be about a muni meltdown here?
Now, I am joined by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, radio host, and author of *How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes*, and Don Luskin, Chief Investment Officer at Trend Macro Guys. Good to see you. So this is a multi-layer discussion. Let's first start out with the underlying premise that Meredith Whitney has, which she says: we've got a muni meltdown coming, that these guys, the states, aren't going to be able to pay their bills. Peter Schiff, is she right?
Well, I saw that 60 Minutes program. I think she's sugarcoating it. I've been telling my clients to sell their municipal bonds for years, because I could see this train coming from a mile away. The problem is, you had all these states and local governments that made all sorts of promises, particularly to their employees, in terms of pension benefits and health care benefits. They barred a lot of money in the process. The bills are coming due, and the taxpayers can't afford to pay. They either have to default on their promises or default on their debts, and the worst possible scenario is that the government bails them out.
Either we're going to get to that, but hold on, that's the second layer of discussion. Don Luskin, do you agree with the underlying premise? Are we at some point where we've got a crisis when it comes to municipal bonds across the United States?
Look, I didn't hear Meredith Whitney or Warren Buffett use the word "meltdown" or "crisis." Let's all get a grip on this. We know there are all kinds of financial stresses throughout this economy and throughout all the developed economies in the world. The good news is that we're coming out of a very deep recession, and recoveries are like a wonderful medicine that makes all problems, at least a little bit, smaller.
All right, so whatever is going to happen, I happen to be talking to you from California, which is always said to be the Greece of the United States. This is supposed to be where all the problems are. In case you haven't noticed, the lights are actually on.
So if I understand you, you're making the point that there can be a lot of defaults, but it's not necessarily a systemic crisis that brings us all to our knees. Peter Schiff, okay, so it's going to be bad, you shouldn't own muni bonds, but is it going to lead to a debilitating 2008 situation, where everything's on fire, or is it just going to be a round of defaults and we get over it?
I think the municipal problem is part of a larger crisis that is coming, because as interest rates rise, it's not only going to be the states that can't pay, but the federal government that can't pay. More and more pressure is going to be put on the Federal Reserve to be the buyer of only resort, or to continue to print money, not only to buy Treasuries but to now buy municipal bonds, to prevent them from having to default. They're going to be buying Harrisburg's water. That's what you're telling me? They're going to start buying everything and printing money to do it. You're going to see more increases in commodity prices.
But here's the thing: if you really believe... do you believe, I know you think the government shouldn't bail out the municipalities, but if you believe that they will, then they're actually a really good buy right now.
No, they're not. They're a lousy buy, because the money they print to bail out these states will render the bonds worth a lot less. You lose either way. Either you lose because the states default and you don't get your money back, or you lose because the government bails them out, you get your money back, but you can't buy anything with it. So you have to get your money out now, and invest around the world: buy gold, silver, commodities, buy forex. Get out of Dodge.
Don, do you have any opinion on whether or not people should be buying muni bonds? They started to sell off, and it wasn't just this week because of what Meredith Whitney said. The minute the election happened, they started to sell off pretty dramatically. Even right after the election, a lot of people said, gosh, with a far more conservative Congress, they're going to be far less likely to bail out states like President Obama's home state, Illinois. So the bailout likelihood has gone down dramatically. Now that they've sold off so dramatically, are they biased now?
Well, I honestly think the political risk is very real, because the states that are in the worst trouble are blue states, and that's not a coincidence. That's how they got in trouble, and they are very, very blue states. We just elected a Democratic governor here in California. I don't understand how, in the last election, we kept it illegal to smoke marijuana and yet elected Jerry Brown governor. Unbelievable contradiction, but there you have it.
But my point is, if Jerry Brown picks up the phone and tries to call the Speaker of the House to get a bailout for this state, John Boehner isn't even going to return the call. But the problem, Don, is the Fed can do an end-around of Congress and just bail them out on their own, just like they did with TARP. They can start going into the market and buying these bonds, creating a phony market and propping them up. That's what they did with the auto companies. Congress initially voted not to bail out the auto companies, and then the Federal Reserve came in and did it anyway.
What do you think, Don? Do you think the Federal Reserve could, in this political climate... they claim they're not a political animal, but we know otherwise. Look, that's an unknown, isn't it? The Fed is the lender of last resort, and it's the Fed's job, and it's been the job of every central bank for centuries, to identify in banking crises good credits that are temporarily distressed, and step in.
Well, I think they have, Peter. We've had almost 100 years of the Fed—
You digress. Let him finish this point. I'm talking about the work that Ben Bernanke cites all the time, from the 19th-century Bank of England. So can we just agree on that, Peter, or you're going to nitpick me to death?
All right, gentlemen, you know what, it's Christmas. Let's end it there. It's been so pleasant. Peter, it was always good to see you. We both in bankrupt states. Connecticut is broke too.
Yeah, there you go. And Don, we elected a Democrat. Thank you, guys. All right, coming up, we just thought—
Comments 0