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Tom Lee just appeared on CNBC and talked about what the markets need to finally breathe a sigh of relief. Everyone seems very stressed: inflation is rising, the Fed is raising rates, and despite the fact that the markets are feeling pretty good , people are a little worried right now . We'll figure this out.
We will also look at the changes just announced by Michael Saylor regarding the possible payment of daily dividends. BlackRock just partnered with a tier-one cryptocurrency to launch tokenized investment portfolios, and it has grown significantly since then . We'll discuss a lot more: why this cycle looks different than previous ones , and what happened to Bitcoin in a bear market for the first time in history.
Whether you think we're still in a bear market or at the beginning of a bull market, we've just done something that's never been done before. So we'll talk about it . If it's not too difficult, subscribe to see future videos like this. If you want to trade cryptocurrency, you should pay attention to Bitpie.
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Thank you, and let's get started. Bitcoin's weekly chart looks good. We have , of course, seen a slight pullback from the $87,500 mark we reached. The price is now around 83.5 , but to be honest, it's not too worrisome. Again, as long as we remain above the 50- week moving average, I consider this a very bullish signal.
In the short to medium term, another level to watch is $82,000, as it is where we have consistently been rejected after breaking above $ 80,000. And now it looks like we may be turning it into a support level. Our last low on the hourly chart was around 82.9. So, again, we're staying above that level.
I think this all looks pretty optimistic. Of course, we are approaching the weekend. So some volatility is possible today. I heard from someone in our private group that $16 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire today. So be prepared. Anything can happen . The broader market is a little "green ", but not significantly.
Oil is down by a percentage point. The VIX index falls 4%, but yes, the indices are only slightly “ green” 45 minutes after the market opens. It's interesting to look at the 4- year cycle. This is the first time we have truly seen a higher high in a bear market. Typically in a bear market over the last four cycles, as you can see, we just kept making lower highs.
In 2015, we supposedly reached a higher high on some exchanges, but not on all. But it looks pretty convincing. This is why many think that perhaps the 4-year cycle has ended. And we'll move on to Tom Lee in a moment. Sorry, I left it for a later part of the video. However, we have 10-year bonds, and the yields on many Treasuries are rising sharply right now, which is making people quite cautious.
I mean, even in early September, a few weeks ago, we had 4.8% on the 10-year Treasury bond. We are now at 5.2%. This is a crazy move in a very short period of time. If you go back to July, early July, we were almost a full percentage point lower than we are now. So yes, some are still cautious. Some people keep money aside.
But, overall, yes, the crypto market is doing pretty well. We are starting to see more news about altcoins, for example, BlackRock is partnering with Ondo to launch tokenized investment portfolios. This led to a 50% growth in Ondo. This has only happened in the last 24 hours, and before that he had already grown quite a bit in the previous few days.
Maybe someone knew something. But yeah, it's amazing how much he's grown. Sorry, it's up 8% in the last 24 hours and 50% in the last month. But still, crazy moves are happening. It's really hard for me to understand right now which companies are going to announce some big news. It's really hard because maybe one or two such events happen a month.
And the rest of the altcoins are showing worse results than Bitcoin. This is why I prefer using leverage. So again, if you want to check out leveraged exchanges , there are links in Linktree to Bitfi and also to Blowfin. So get to know them. Um, look at this. Strategy offers daily dividends on Strive, i.e.
STRC. I even forgot what STRC stands for. Strike and Stride are charged daily, including weekends and holidays, and payout is made the next business day. Economic indicators are unchanged. Quite interesting. I mean, in the end, or at the end of the year, it doesn't seem to matter whether they're paid quarterly, monthly, or daily, but it's nice if you're trying to live on those dividends.
Um, and overall it's just nice, I guess. That is, I would rather receive payments regularly than every 3 months, but at the end of the year the amounts are the same, but it's still pretty cool . As far as I know, this is the only company that pays daily dividends. Some people will look at this and say, "Well, it's just a gimmick." Others will look and say, "Wow, that's cool that they're doing something that no one else has done." Right now, STRC is still generally below the $100 level we've been waiting for.
Once it hits $100, they can sell more and then they can actually go and buy some more bitcoins. It is currently at 98.30. So, yeah, just under the $100 mark. Now let's move on to Tom Lee. Yields have risen to a level where they are starting to compete with stocks. I think the market is still trying to figure out why yields are higher.
I mean, there are several reasons. But I think two things are being overlooked in this conversation . First, where will interest rates be in 6 months, because where will inflation be? And secondly, I believe that increasing profitability improves competition for stronger companies. This means that there will be companies that will actually become more attractive as profitability increases.
And I think, as you pointed out, Scott, that's probably why the " magic seven" is growing. You know, as profitability increases, their ability to get funded is still easy, but it's harder for competitors. And regarding inflation, I still think the next 6 months will be the most important, because if inflation starts to decline, it won't be because of the Fed's rate hike last week.
This is because of the policies that are already in place, and I think this means that the Fed may actually be backing off some of its hawkish policies . Just to touch on some of these points. He, uh, he points out that some great companies will actually do better in higher interest rates, and that can happen in two different ways.
There are companies that directly benefit from higher interest rates, and there are companies that benefit indirectly. Those he points to, that is, the "Magic Seven ", they win indirectly. Competition is getting tougher, isn't it? Or is it harder to get cash, and if that's the case, then companies that make a lot of cash are in a better position, right?
It is easier for them to buy other companies. They can , uh, provide loans. They can, they can raise capital more easily than their competitors. And then there are companies that actually benefit, like a bank that doesn't pay you much on your checking or savings account and then makes money on the difference.
So the other thing he's talking about there is just that, you know, inflation overall isn't going to be affected much by interest rate increases. The problem with inflation now is that it is largely driven by oil prices, which these interest rates will not affect. I mean, maybe a little bit, because some people who maybe decide to use oil or gasoline, whatever they would otherwise do, will slow down.
For example, someone on their boat might say that, you know, they won't be going out on the boat as often because gas is expensive, but most people who have nice boats and use a lot of gas probably don't care. But I think there is a small portion of oil and gasoline consumption that will disappear because of this.
But most of it is just a supply problem because of what's happening in the Middle East. And, uh , I saw someone point out that so much money is being invested in data centers right now. And they don't care if oil is a little more expensive. They will continue to use it. So this means that inflation will not actually decrease.
Yeah, I mean, what if, what if it doesn't happen? That we will have rising yields and inflation for longer than you assume. I mean, the Fed's own forecasts do not at all indicate that inflation will return to target next month, or the month after, or even later. Yes, Scott, I think the probability of it going down is very high.
Firstly, because on September 30 they will present a new methodology for calculating the PCE index . This will likely reduce the rate by 20–40 basis points on an annualized basis. So 3.4% could turn into 3%, and we know that the effect of the tariffs is starting to fade, as is the impact of flash memory prices.
Portfolio fees on the stock market are also decreasing, and as for energy, if the price of oil remains at $100, it will not affect inflation in 6 months. So, for inflation to start rising rapidly, housing prices would have to rise, but higher rates would hold that back, and oil would have to move to $150, and flash memory would have to fall sharply again, but it is already being removed from the methodology.
Therefore, I believe that the chances of much lower annual inflation in 6 months are quite high. I understand, but there is no sign that we will achieve any kind of balance on the issue of memory. You may use a different methodology to get a different inflation rate, but that doesn't mean that inflation itself has necessarily changed.
You simply decided to add other ingredients to the mixture and bake the cake differently. Right. But, you know, for the consumer price basket or inflation, the life of the average person does not depend on the prices of flash memory. Of course, this makes AI more expensive , but for the average person, the only real memory expense is the phone they carry in their pocket.
So I think flash memory prices could still go up. This should not be a reason for the Fed to raise rates. But in a broader sense, you're right, Scott. We don't see any signs of inflation rising, but I would say the likelihood that it will be lower in 6 months is high. And if that happens, the market will finally be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
OK. Let us know what you think about it in the comments below the video. Overall, I think the market is in good shape. Of course, profitability is a concern. Oil prices are also a concern. But companies continue to scale, and profits show explosive revenue growth. Bitcoin looks good. Share your thoughts.
And again , if you want to trade, follow the links under the video in Linktree to Bitfi, Blofin, or Ubit. Thank you very much . I appreciate it. I remind you that this is not financial advice. This is not encourag research.
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