Billionaire Bill Ackman just Said This is The Risk for the Stock Market..

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결론: 영상은 Ackman의 2022년 8월 경제 발언을 리액션하며, 최대 리스크는 금리 인상이 충분히 반영되지 않은 점이라는 그의 주장에 대체로 동의하면서도 대량 해고가 더 큰 시장 리스크라는 견해를 제시한다. [Ackman 발언 - 경제 상황과 소비자] 고용은 완전고용 수준이고 임금도 오르고 있어 경제는 현재 강하다는 평가이다. JP모건 소비자 부문 연체율이 역사상 최저 수준이라는 점이 언급됐다. 다만 저소득층은 높은 유가 등으로 압박을 받는다. [Ackman 발언 - 주식시장 저평가] 대형은행 주가는 PS 10 미만으로 거래되고 연초 대비 크게 하락했다(JP모건 -28.5%). 시장이 경제와 대형은행의 상태를 믿지 않는다는 의미로 해석했다. [Ackman 발언 - 인플레이션과 연준] 인플레이션이 여전히 심하며(약 9%) 연준의 조치는 효과가 제한적이었다. 2년물 국채금리(2.9% 미만)는 향후 연준금리 상승이 제한적일 것을 시사하며, 연준이 금리를 현 수준보다 높게 유지해야 한다고 봤다. [Ackman 발언 - 금리 리스크] 4% 이상의 금리가 12~18개월 이상 지속돼야 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있을 것이며, 이를 시장이 반영하지 않은 것이 가장 큰 리스크라고 주장했다. [리액션 - 연준과 통화정책의 한계] 연준이 통제할 수 있는 범위는 제한적이다(공급망, 유가, 가스, 지정학 등은 통제 밖). 금리 효과는 시차를 두고 나타난다는 점을 강조했다. [리액션 - 최대 리스크는 대량 해고] 진행자는 금리 인상보다 대량 해고와 신규 채용 둔화가 주식시장과 경제에 더 큰 리스크라고 봤다. 로빈후드 인력 감축 등을 사례로 들었다. [리액션 - 재정 정책과 반도체법] 2조 달러 규모 추가 재정이 인플레이션을 키운 연료라는 견해를 제시했다. 다만 인플레이션의 주 원인은 공급망, 저금리 대출, 에너지(유가·천연가스) 등 복합적이라고 봤다. 반도체법(약 500~600억 달러 규모, 인텔 등 수혜 예상)은 대형 기업들이 그만큼 자금이 필요한지 의문을 제기했다. 반도체 공급 부족이 자동차·애플 등 산업에 타격을 줬고, 대만 생산 의존이 안보 문제라는 점에서 정책 목적에는 공감했다. [종합] 금리 리스크와 대량 해고 리스크를 대비하며, 구체적인 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없다.

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01. out of there folks little reaction time bill ackman yes bill ackman has some commentary from a few hours ago that came out here talking about uh the economy talking about the biggest risk for the stock market and i want to react to this and give you my opinion on what he said here bill ackman if you don't know is an american billionaire investor hedge fund manager he's founder and ceo of parish square capital management a hedge fund management company his investment approach makes him an activist investor as of uh 2022.

02. his net worth was a little under 3 billion dollars uh bill ackman has a long history of successes and some failures in the stock market and many other various things and we're not going to cover all that here i just want to react to what he just said a few hours ago and give my opinion on this hope you guys enjoyed as always thank you for joining me on the new channel much love as always i appreciate all the folks that are subscribed to the channel alright the economy itself but also where the stock markets are in terms of fairly valued or not you know i think the economy is actually quite strong right now you know the question is where it's going to be in six months and 12 months but you know we're at full employment there are plenty of jobs available you know wages are going up um you know howard hughes company we own is opening a uh a kind of food hall the john george food hall uh at the south street seaport we've had to hire 600 people and they've been working really hard to do it you've only hired 350 people in the last you know a couple months if you're looking for a job there's a good one there so i think the economy itself is very strong had the opportunity to see jamie dimon this weekend i apologize i do i still am a little congested from uh from covin and jamie talked about number one this is the wait does that mean diamond has it as well roni rona what's default rate period in history uh for the consumer uh part of the bank and that that's interesting lowest default rate in history for the bank that's interesting statement there uh in terms of jpmorgan chase uh for the consumer for the consumer part of the bank that is talked about number one this is the the lowest default rate period in history uh for the consumer part of the bank and that uh there so so two ways to look at that one one way you could look at that is like oh the economy is uh in pretty good shape the other way you can look at that is uh oh boy you know it only gets worse from here and so yeah there's as with many things in life there's always good and bad that comes with everything their full spectrum of people that they you know uh support a rich that bank with jp morgan and chase and so on uh are in the best position they've ever been so i think we've got you know well capitalized consumers for the most part although i do think lower income people are getting a lot of pressure from higher gas prices it's interesting to see how uh the stock market just doesn't believe in the the state of the economy it doesn't believe in the big banks you look at these stocks you look at the valuations they're all almost trading at you know ps like under 10 pretty much for almost all the big banks they're down massively year-to-date i mean look at jp morgan the most well-run bank out there i mean it's down 28 and a half percent that's the state of the uh stock market in the way they view how the banks are going to do our food prices higher rental rates um and i think the biggest problem for the economy is inflation and inflation is roaring it's continued to rage and uh unfortunately the the steps taken by the federal reserve have not uh been effective you know since uh you know june the first 75 basis point increase financial conditions have used enormously you know stock markets up you know depending on market uh you know 10 11 and more um you know the look at you know the two-year treasury which is a kind of good indicator of uh kind of where fed funds should be over the next eight quarters is under 2.9 percent and uh you know with the fed today at you know called two and a half percent basically the market's saying that the the fed fed funds will average only 40 basis points above the current rate over the next two years and that implies really no financial tightening at all just at the last meeting uh jerome powell said you know that the fed was now comfortable that it reached a sort of neutral level of rates uh which again a fairly extraordinary statement behind a a world with nine percent inflation so i think the problem is and so what would you be see the issue is uh you know everybody thinks the fed raising rates right is going to suddenly change everything and like inflation just it is going to sink it doesn't work like that these things take time to play out uh the and i brought that out this point a million times before the fed king can only control so much when they raise interest rates okay and you know by the fed continue to raise rates raise rates it caused the 10-year to go up the 10-year went up mortgage rates would skyrocket it right which slowed down real estate in a massive way so that's something that the fed can potentially control right but the fed can't control how many vehicles are made right it can't control supply chains it can't control the price of oil or the price of natural gas it can't control geopolitical events it can't control what happened with russia ukraine it can't control those sorts of things and all those have contributed massively to the high inflation we have when you actually start digging in the numbers you start to realize this right the fed can't control that fertilizer costs went through the roof right and it was hard to get fertilizer and that made food much more expensive it can't control those sorts of things so the fed by them raising interest rates they can only do so much now by them raising interest rates as i stated you know if you're talking about big purchases that can slow down you can slow down how many people want to buy a new car you can slow down you know how many people maybe potentially take out credit card debt depending upon that uh you could take it you can you can obviously bring down the amount of people that go to buy new homes and things like that right but the fact is people think or have the assumption that the fed controls all when just they don't that's just not how it works and even when the fed's raising interest rates it's going to take a while before it takes effect okay just like when the fed here's the thing okay people need to look at this both ways right when the fed lowers interest rates and brings interest rates down massively the economy doesn't suddenly go boom boom boom that's not the way this works look at what happened in 2008 2009 the fed drops the interest rate to nothing did the economy also boom like crazy absolutely not it took a long time for that money to get out there it took a long time to get the economy back in a healthy place again years okay and so people assume like all the fed's going to raise interest rates suddenly that's going to fix inflation it doesn't work like that just like if the fed lowers interest rates to the floor doesn't mean magically the economy is great again it's not the way these things work okay it takes time and i think that's something everybody needs to understand can the fed do then i think the fed has to be aggressive in raising rates getting to a you know something probably with uh you know high threes four handle checking in to seeing how things are going but i think rates are gonna have to stay four percent plus for the foreseeable future you know 12 18 months or so in order to to kill this inflation they may need to take rates higher and uh i think that's the biggest risk to the markets is that people are not pricing that in uh and i think the uh we need to the biggest risk to the market he just said is that people aren't pricing that in aren't pricing in essentially the possibility that the fed raises federal funds right to three or four percent that's what he just stated right there okay and um yeah i think i think the i think that's certainly a risk to the market i think the biggest risk to the market is mass job layoffs and if that was something that we saw happen right we just saw robin hood lay off 23 of their workforce after they just did layoffs not you know a few months ago right and so if you saw all these big companies like google apple and all these others all of a sudden getting very prudent with hiring and slowing down they're hiring massively meta all these companies right and if also in suddenly the weaker ones go to layoff folks and the the hiring is not out there especially for white collar jobs as they say right then you're in a situation where that's a huge risk to the economy so from my perspective uh that's the biggest risk to actually the stock market and potentially the economy as well right because they're taking it off and when you can borrow money uh based off a uh you know two and a quarter to two and a half percent so for rate that's the you know kind of base rate for for borrowers and inflation is nine percent and it's going to be persistent certainly in the mid single digits for a long time you borrow as much money as you can and so the current prevailing level of rates is you know amping up the economy which is why we are having uh the inflation that we are having now coupled with the global factors of course bill do you like the chips act do you like the uh the other reconciliation bill that manson is backing does a lot of you know we think of the fed but a lot of times the fed is just enabling whatever administration whatever congress is doing you know they got to keep rates low they get they're sort of like partners in crime if you will for at least you know in my view for some of the the profligate spending that goes on the chips act by the way is like this oh gosh let's see the 50 or 60 billion dollar basically deal that is going to go to a bunch of semiconductor companies that manufacture in the united states now from my understanding the company is going to get the most amount of money is intel from my understanding there's a potential that they could get something like 30 billion dollars do you like either one of those pieces of legislation i think there's merit to what you say i think what got us into this mess was an extra couple trillion dollars of stimulus that was intended you know unfortunately when when a new regime comes into power they want to do something for the people that you know elected them right and here you know it's very very easy when you control the congress and it's a new administration to spend money and uh unfortunately 2 trillion that was spent led was the you know the extra fuel that caused the extreme inflation and the extreme inflation is actually affecting people uh who who were uh you know the by administration was trying to help i think through that stimulus package so it's gotta be very cautious about so yes uh absolutely stimulus and all those things uh helped run up the inflation numbers but let's also not forget right that the main reason inflation like like look at the inflation numbers and break it down where are we seeing the biggest increase by far and away year over year if you look at the last quarters the last quarter's numbers and the last month in the previous month it's energy right and so the stim the stimulus money or anything that like that that was put out there that didn't magically make uh oil price go higher in natural gas that's in its own whole dealio okay and so i think that's just important to remember that and some of the other stuff that that's happened in made inflation so great right and food prices go up and things like that that's not from the stimulus let's not act like oh because they pump some stimulus money out there that made everything get dramatically expensive it made certain things get much more expensive it didn't make everything get much more expensive right if you want to talk about what happened to the price of lumber at the back half of 2020 into 2021 different deal right but supply chains is a huge reason we got massive inflation right another huge reason is the fact that you could take out loans at unbelievably low rates right and that you know that ultimately led to inflation in a lot of different parts of the economy and it ultimately helped obviously wages go up and things like that right so there's many various factors out there it's not just stimulus money but um you know and we knew crude was going to likely have to come back at some point this year right with the economy really opening back up in 2022 you knew that was likely going to happen it's just the whole russia situation put it on steroids same with nat gas prices adding more fiscal stimulus at a time like this you know the chips act again i haven't read these in detail um but i feel like the chips industry you know they've got some very well capitalized very well-run companies do they really need 50 billion i'm sorry whatever the number is you know 50 billion dollars more than that yeah i i think that's a good point do those companies really need that money right and uh we've heard some of those companies almost hold the us hostage in terms of like oh if you want us to build this plant we're going to need that money so uh you know as far as my opinion on that i understand that i understand the us wants to stay in the forefront of that but i think there's a lot of negotiations that are going on behind closed doors and i don't know if the dollar amount is really needed to be that big or not um but it's a it's a pretty it's a pretty messy situation i just know that the government the way they look at it is we have a huge chips problem right it's clear as day why can't why can't you get a a new car right a lot of these new automobiles the reason is chips right and so if if you understand like what's been going on in the automobile sector for the last year or so like the chip shortages is it's hurt growth in the automobile sector at least in a major way and several other spaces right apple just talked about you know chips being short as far as the mac business goes and some of their businesses on their latest conference call listen to their conference call last night right and so that's the whole thing and so the us kind of looks at this and i'm like well we're hurting our potential economic growth by not controlling essentially uh the the chip supply and having all these chips that go into our devices potentially made in the united states of america or at least a big chunk of them and then you add on the fact that i don't think people realize we're mo if you or what you're watching us on some sort of electronic device right now you might be watching us on your phone you might be watching on a tablet or a computer or your tv or whatever there's chips that go into that product and i'd almost guarantee those chips are made in taiwan and that is a potential national security problem there with everything that's going on with china taiwan and who knows what happens there over time but if china ever got much more involved there right now all of a sudden taiwan's not its own separate thing so i think that's another huge reason why the government wants to get off this reliance of chips matter made in taiwan so i understand it from both sides is a complicated subject i think the biggest question is is 50 billion or 60 billion is that really needed i think that's the big question right so anyways guys let me know your opinion on anything we discussed in today's video thank you for being subscribed to this channel a lot more reactions coming over the future and uh much love have a great day peace