What Tesla's Battery Day REALLY Told Us.

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배터리 데이 발표 내용을 분석하며 테슬라 2022년 차량 인도 목표 2.5백만대 달성 가능성을 제시. 25,000달러 저가차 2023년 출시, 배터리 원가 56% 절감, 기가팩토리 생산능력 확대 등을 근거로 장기 성장 전망. 단기적으로는 주가가 다른 고flying 주식보다 부진할 수 있다고 경고하며, 2030년 주가 장기 목표를 제시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone meet kevin here i have some concerns for tesla stock in this video i'm going to incorporate my thoughts on battery day and how battery day affects the future stock value of tesla so to be clear this is going to be a video about money it's not going to be a video about chemistry or a super technical stuff and while i appreciate that stuff i care right now about bottom lines and profit i want money for you and i want money for me which is exactly why i encourage you get your free stock with weeble so you can get up to sixteen hundred dollars completely for fre and that of course is right next to the link to get life insurance which you can apple and android pay for in as little as five minutes so here's the outline of this video number one i'm going to talk about what we didn't hear i'm going to keep that very brief then i'm going to talk very briefly about some bottom line takeaways that we need to sort of reiterate so that we can look at our stock analysis and understand how does this affect the future value of tesla what does this mean for tesla in 2022 what are my concerns and what does this mean going forward let's get into it first here's what we did not hear we did not hear anything about a million mile battery this was definitely a disappointment due to massive hype over a million mile battery coming vehicle to grid charging no mention of this the tesla roadster nothing yet ride hailing updates nothing yet and we weren't really expecting this but no no tesla plane yet now of course some of these were a long shot but here is what we actually got and then we'll talk about the stock price and whether or not we should buy or sell in just a moment first we might see a beta to tesla's full self-driving where it stops for stop signs red lights turns left on intersections turns right in intersections handles roundabouts all of that released as soon as next month this means we could literally go from home to work or wherever we're going since some of us are now working at home and back without touching the wheel technically at least since still not sure if that'll be legal but anyway this gives tesla two full years to test their full self driving capabilities and then eventually destroy the car market with a 25 000 car to essentially take all the market share away from the toyota camry sector and probably the entry-level prius section or the honda accord section there's going to be a lot of pain for some of these manufacturers this 25 000 car we heard might be coming as soon as 2023 this is expected to have a mile range or battery pack range of somewhere between 250 to 300 miles it's not expected to have a massive enhanced range like some of the higher higher end vehicles that tesla has and we're likely to see an additional autopilot charge if people want to take advantage of that autopilot feature of around eight to ten thousand dollars this means realistically all in you'll be somewhere around thirty to mid thirties for this car thirty thousand dollars that is and then you'd have a fully electric fully self-driving vehicle for a very reasonable price we also heard of a phase two expansion at giga shanghai meaning giga shanghai rather than producing the 500 000 vehicles that we thought it was going to produce it's actually going to produce twice as many vehicles as we thought this is actually huge this is double what we expected and it's really going to play into our numbers here in a moment then obviously battery day we heard of a 56 reduction in the cost of batteries that's all i'm gonna say about batteries because this means a seven thousand dollar battery pack in a model three could essentially cost half of what it does now it currently costs somewhere around seven thousand dollars so if i'm conservative and go with half instead of 56 that means the battery pack would save around 3 500 this is potentially an additional 3 500 profit per vehicle since instead of likely reducing the cost of the model 3 tesla's just going to come out with maybe a model 2 or that cheaper 25 000 car this could easily add 2 to 4 in profit margin for tesla's vehicles and that actually helps get us to that 29 to 30 percent gross profit margin that elon musk thinks we can get you sell a hundred thousand dollars in cars boom thirty thousand dollars goes towards operating and eventually the bottom line not bad but we're at least 12 to 18 months away from having the factories running to be able to produce these batteries in fact we're expecting giga berlin and giga austin to be the first to really mass manufacture these batteries on their new road runner production lines so we're really talking about 2022 2023 here to actually get these new batteries up to scale in fact right now elon musk even kind of laughingly says yeah we haven't really gotten all the kinks out yet yeah yeah why are we announcing it this early anyway this is likely obviously what's going to help keep the cost of the 25 000 car down and increase profit for the rest of tesla's products including their battery packs and their other vehicles also we'll have performance upgrades speed upgrades and all of the other beautiful things that come with better batteries after all elon is now also not only vertically integrating battery production into tesla basically kind of giving the big warning sign to panasonic that you guys are getting the boot soon but he's also building these batteries directly into the structure of the future vehicles meaning batteries have to be produced at each tesla factory which is a big roadblock for actually creating these production facilities but once they're up and running you now eliminate massive transportation costs to move heavy batteries around the world just to produce vehicles and we also now eliminate unnecessary parts since the batteries will be used as part of the structural element of the car somehow all of these cost saving measures will actually make the car more comfortable to drive and more lightweight we also heard that we have about 600 000 cyber truck pre-orders and austin's gigafactory is expected to produce around 300 000 cyber trucks per year so we've got about two years worth of cyber cyber truck production already in pre-orders we then heard about tesla's plan to monetize higher-end buyers which is good because the cost of the car kept coming down it's like who's going to buy the high-end stuff well tesla announced their plaid model s for 139 900 and what's epic about this is the 520 mile range and forget about the 0 to 60 in 1.9 seconds that's pretty cool but a 520 mile range represents about a 30 to 40 percent increase in the long range models that tesla currently offers this is absolutely incredible and gives us some insight into how tesla's actually going to deliver on their promise to have a cyber truck with a 500 plus mile range finally we got some long-term growth for the company so the goal is to get to 100 gigawatts by 2022 and 3 000 gigawatts by 2020 by 2030.

02. now i'm going to use these to figure out the company's growth rate kind of what the company expects to grow at because no matter how you slice tesla it's an energy company so growth in energy is growth and profits okay now we've got all the facts we know what is not or was not announced at tesla's battery day we know what we got announced at tesla's battery day and some of the important bottom lines that i just reiterated now i'm going to take these bottom lines that we learned and we're going to incorporate them into the stock so let's go ahead and pull up some sheets here and show you exactly where my head is so here we go the first thing that we learned that's really really really good is in all of their earnings reports at tesla we were really expecting to have the factories produce 000 vehicles per gigafactory well now plus fremont because i guess fremont's technically not a gigafactory but anyway but now we're actually expecting to see 500k at fremont austin and berlin but up to a million in giga shanghai this actually gets us to that 2.5 million car target by 2022 it's actually a realistic path without even adding new facilities just get these all built by 2021 and go go ham in 2022 not bad especially since over the past few weeks every time i've done a tesla analysis i mentioned i thought it would be realistic for tesla to get to 2.5 million vehicles produced and ideally delivered by the end of 2022 this update lit that one line literally just gave us the complete path as to how we can achieve that style of production simple add 500 000 of production units to giga shanghai by doing a second phase expansion to the gigafactory which makes you wonder can we also expand fremont more than 500k can we expand berlin and austin more than 500k obviously a lot of potential here we know that giga nevada produces panasonic batteries we know that the cato facility is mostly used for research and development this is where they're testing the new batteries right now and we know that gigan new york is working on like the solar roof and solar panels here's also some of the stuff we know kind of just thrown together on a chart here so we have it a little bit more cleanly we know that in 2019 we had deliveries growth of around 50 and in 2020 elon musk told us he expects to see growth of 30 to 40 percent despite all of the pandemic slowness so this should have probably been higher but and you know we'll take 30 to 40 in the year of a pandemic uh this is going to be a big number here because this implies a growth rate to us if we take a present value of 100 gigawatts you don't even have to know what that is i told you this isn't going to be technical just so just pretend a hundred bananas and we take 100 bananas in 2022 which tesla thinks they're gonna have a hundred gigawatts of power 100 bananas of power by 2022 produced and then by 2030 they plan to have 3 000 bananas that's 30 times right 30 x what's the growth rate that we can imply from that well if we do that compounded calculation to figure out a growth rate we'll see that tesla thinks they can grow at an average of 53 per year that's a pretty exponential curve and you'll see that in just a moment we know the 25 000 car 2023 we talked about that uh we think it'll be three years before they fully realize the the success of battery margin okay we'll talk about that uh they want to produce up to 20 million cars long term we talked about the one million shanghai we know that leases are consistently four percent of sales uh berlin austin end of 2021 we learned about talked about this okay good so this is kind of just putting our thoughts on a spreadsheet here so we know to incorporate some of these important elements we also know that elon musk spent quite a bit of time talking about how important it is to have factories as close to the consumer as possible ideally you start having smaller factories scattered throughout the world it'd be better to have one small highly efficient factory that does the batteries and the production and everything in one place and then have multiple of those factories in different states and different countries and certainly in different continents so that way they're as close as possible to the consumer to increase the speed at which these products can be produced but also to minimize on shipping and delivery costs it's kind of it's a brilliant model it's very very smart so if we take the growth that elon musk told us we should expect we might see somewhere around 500 000 vehicles produced and delivered in 2020 that's an average of his 30 to 40 percent growth okay then if we take remember how i told you on that last slide we had about an exponential growth rate here about 53 percent right well if we take that number and just go with 50 this is approximately what we should see delivery production look like 750 000 vehicles in 2021 uh 1.1 in 2022 this is a problem though because remember i've been estimating 2.5 million by 2022 and then you kind of start seeing this exponential curve to where their goal is 20 million vehicles and they hit 20 million vehicles somewhere around 2029 but this growth won't remain forever because you'll hit economies of scale and you probably won't see this crazy bump to 29 million vehicles it's at some point you're not going to be growing at 50 forever you're going to hit scale and there's also a limit to how many vehicles people want to buy per year toyota in 2019 produced and delivered around 10.7 million vehicles so 20 million is almost twice that twice toyota keep that in mind that's their goal it's not actually happening right now we got to keep that in mind too this is just goals and 10 years in 10 years nicola could be running the world okay nobody really believes that but anyway so this is what this chart looks like all i did was take that data and throw it on a chart here this is obviously exponential which is exciting in one sense because if this is the goal then that really means when we're investing in tesla stock we're investing right here which is weird because right now the stock price looks like this right the stock price makes it look like this is 20 20 and you know this is uh i don't know 2014 or whatever and it feels like we've done this crazy run-up in the stock so it feels like we're already behind the curve in terms of this exponential curve but based on these projections that elon musk is giving us this vision we're just at the beginning of the curve which is kind of interesting and exciting for tesla but let's do a little bit more of a realistic chart here let's see here let's go ahead and zoom into this so here's what i did i still think we're going to be much more likely to get to two and a half million vehicles produced by 2023 hopefully early 2023 the end of 2022 and so here's the way i played with this growth a little bit i think because we're going to have three to four gigafactories growing at the same time you know giga austin berlin shanghai and then maybe some expansion to fremont heck maybe they'll even add another one i think it wouldn't be a surprise if we started seeing more of a an 80 growth target in 2021 2022 and that's going to get us to these two and a half million vehicles produced much faster by 2023 at the latest this is later than i had expected though so i think we'll see greater growth soon within the next three years we'll have this 80 to maybe 50 percent growth here uh and then in time you know come 20 25 6 7 we'll start seeing growth decline you know if we go with 30 we still end up hitting 20 million vehicles by 2030 this is about roughly what it would take to get to elon's goal not saying this is 100 realistic but this is a potential path you know and then we'll probably decay closer to maybe 10 growth sort of depends how much competition there is at that time but it's very possible we're going to see these big growth rates in this first half of the decade and then slower growth rates in the second half of the decade that means the curve is going to look a little bit more like this it's a little less exponential than what we just saw prior but no matter how you slice it and dice it no matter how much i manipulate these numbers based on these ambitious goals as long as tesla and this is the big caveat as long as tesla remains a leader this is possible if tesla starts falling behind the competition then this curve is going to get demolished so if you are a tesla investor you've got to pay attention to the leadership position of tesla how long are they going to remain a leader if they remain a leader look at where we are 2020 is that down here you know we are just beginning the curve of tesla even though it feels like we're so high in the curve already uh okay great so now take a look at this this is just sort of a comparison that i thought of it somewhat feels like and this comparison has been made before that you know tesla's kind of like apple right but look at apple's chart between 2015 and january 2020.

03. so before the pandemic here right pandemic's over here we're just going to ignore that back a little rush there for a moment to me tesla feels like it could potentially be one of these companies that trades very very kind of slow growth ish for the next five years and then all of a sudden once we start realizing oh my gosh tesla's still competitive tesla's still growing that's when we could potentially see the stock realization of that exponential curve now this might come sooner who knows we're guessing right here based on the information that we have available but it's interesting to see now let's go ahead and jump on over to our actual numbers on the spreadsheet so this is the spreadsheet that we had been using to forecast i had been using a revenue per vehicle of around 52 000.

04. with the introduction of a 25 000 car this is going to go down but it's difficult to know when that car is actually going to hit the roads even if they begin producing it in three years when are we actually going to start seeing deliveries so i'm going to stick and maintain by that by the end of 2022 and now i'm going to revise this a bit to maybe the start of 2023 uh it would not be unreasonable for us to see 2.5 million vehicles because i think we'll have that quicker growth curve early i also think we're still going to hit that 5 billion in energy revenues from solar panels and power walls by 2022 the end maybe early 2023 if anything all that happened with from battery day is these expectations are getting delayed a bit and that is one of my concerns is that we're going to have to delay some of these expectations a bit which with new and improved margins i still stand by my original spreadsheet that it would not be unreasonable by the end of 2022 maybe early 23 that's the only change here is changing this to early 23 we could potentially see a post split stock price of close to 900 dollars per share just based on two and a half million vehicles delivered that's it i mean that's already really good growth right that still works out to a 42 roi on your money between now and the end of 2022 uh and you know if we change that to three years it'll be a little lower because it'll take longer but that's okay it'll still be a great number however the long run so this to me is still realistic nothing changed really about my chart i can't really go into this chart and make things a lot better because i had already assumed that we were going to somehow get to two and a half million vehicles so you know the fact that we now know it's going to come from shanghai with it with the doubling of capacity great it's just sort of a means to an end no i have not changed anything about my 2022 projection this still means that i'd like to buy this stock for under 350 dollars per share that's still my expectation however let's look at the long run here in this long run i just want to warn you it's speculative but it basically shows us the potential future if tesla remains dominant and that's a big if look at this if someday let's say by 2030 maybe it's 2035 who knows by some day tesla actually produces 20 million vehicles and we drop the revenue per car from about 52 000 to 38 000.

05. that's a big decline in revenue per vehicle because of those 25 000 cars and we keep margin the same in other words i say that elon failed at getting margin to 30 trying to be conservative here he also failed to improve his profit margin on energy beyond 20 that's why i'm keeping the expense ratio at 75 and 80 percent here and we assume that the corporate tax rates are 28 percent by 20 30.

06. you know higher taxes in the future well then at a future 40 times earnings multiple in 2030 it would not be unreasonable first of all for tesla to actually have a revenue of over a trillion dollars just take a look at that really quick before i give you the final stock price here but look at that that's from sales 760 billion in sales alone uh 30 billion in leases 76 billion in servicings which this 10 ratio for service things might end up going up the more vehicles are on the road for longer especially with their recycling battery plants and things like that that they're working on uh and then i did bump revenue substantially to 200 billion which which is a little lofty uh but uh not terribly unrealistic if they produce the battery technology that they're thinking of so this is this is the someday projection here right maybe it's 20 30 maybe it's 20 35.

07. anyway with a 40 times earnings multiplier it would be reasonable for tesla post split to be trading for somewhere around four thousand eight hundred eighty nine dollars by 2030 that is a 10x return more than 10x return it's like a 12x return over the next 10 years tesla has some incredible potential as long as they remain dominant i believe we're early in the tesla growth curve that's what battery day told me battery day told me that wait a minute this company is not even close to being to scale it's still a nascent tech company there's so much to go on this exponential curve it just feels weird because the stock price has gone exponential where tesla hasn't yet and that doesn't necessarily mean that the stock price is ahead of tesla because realistically when we start running the numbers it almost looks cheap but here's my concern for tesla tesla stock may underperform over the next couple years relative to some other high-flying high-hype stocks the reason for that is the stock market is too impatient to think 10 years out the stock market is looking 18 months ahead and in 18 months it's like uh okay what so you just finished uh berlin and austin cool where are the two and a half million cars ah you don't have two and a half million cars okay not interested that's that's the extent of the stock market so if you're buying tesla and you're like oh crap i'm down man i'm red today man i'm not feeling this if you don't feel this vision and the inspiration and the potential for tesla to remain number one while innovating the way they are do not buy tesla stock if you see the vision and you will track tesla to ensure that it remains dominant over this next decade then you know we are early in the exponential curve not late the way the stock actually looks but my concern is it's going to take some really thick skin to get through the next few years of volatility because it's not gonna be smooth sailing it's not like i can just go in and lock up 2021 option contracts yolo for a thousand bucks and and say oh this is gonna this is gonna double or triple my money no it might but no guarantees it's gonna be this decade this decade is going to be the decade of tesla and i'm saying this at the end uh ish of 2020 and i hope in 10 years knock on wood i'm still alive and i haven't used my life insurance and i'm still here making youtube videos i want to come back to this video and see how dominant how long the tests will remain dominant when did they fall out of favor or are they even in even more favor than they've ever been before and was it true were we buying tesla at what felt like the top of the exponential curve but we were really just at the beginning lso consider checking out the programs and of course making youtube videos and making money from those videos thank you so much and we'll see you next you