저자: 미상 · 외국인
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멍거 인터뷰를 인용해 미국 시장이 닷컴 버블보다 더 과열됐다고 진단하며, 높은 기업가치/매출 비율과 신용거래 잔고 급증을 근거로 제시. 진행자는 주식 전반이 고평가됐다는 데 동의하지만 급등(멜트업) 가능성은 남아 있다고 봄. 과열 구간에서 상투를 잡는 것은 위험하다고 강조. 장기적으로는 ARK 유전체 혁명 ETF처럼 파괴적 기술과 질병 치료 분야에 기회가 있다고 언급. 집값 플랫폼 Zillow의 사례도 제시. 멍거가 쿠코스트, 재생에너지 전환, 원자력(우라늄), 중국에 대해 낙관적이라는 발언을 소개하며, 특히 중국 투자에 대해 정치적 리스크를 지적. 블록체인 기반 메타버스와 토큰 경제는 정당한 사업일 수 있다고 봤고, 암호화폐 자체를 전면 부정한 멍거 발언에는 이견을 표함. 개별 종목 예측 발언은 없고, 진행자는 투자 판단은 시청자 몫이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
it is six a.m on friday december third and i had to stop everything i was doing which is obsessing over financial markets as usual to bring you guys this video because i stumbled across an incredible piece that explains what one of the greatest investors of our time is thinking and doing and believing about markets right now charlie munger in his 90s lots and lots of wisdom downloaded on what is going on around the world in today's markets so let's go through this article so he's 97 years old and he just had this interview with someone in australia and here's a quote some of the valuations we saw in the dot-com boom were higher he said but overall i consider this in the united states market as being even crazier than the dot-com boom which blew up in 2000 and what he's saying you know obviously he's a very conservative successful value investor what he's saying does line up pretty well with this tweet that tavi costa put out showing software stocks enterprise value to sales so the valuation the market cap of these companies compared to sales so munger's absolutely correct the median enterprise value is almost double what it was back in 2000 and it also lines up with this tweet that herb greenberg put out showing margin accounts at brokers and dealers okay so margin accounts it's kind of a gauge of people taking on more debt to speculate in risky assets right if you look at this chart it is absolutely astronomically high and you can actually look in 2000 right tech bubble crash 2009 real estate bubble crash and here we are way back up one thing i will say about this because i don't necessarily want to just say that stocks are going to crash and if you look at this chart you can see that over time it has gone up exponentially so yes there's a frenzy in retail trading activity but it's also the case that it does steadily move higher over time it's just probably going to revert to its mean at some point and it does not mean that this will not go higher okay like this could easily double again there's so much cheap money in the world there's so much stimulus when this happens epic bubbles occur i just learned that the inflation in silver coins that came out of the spanish discovery of silver in latin america there was an inflation of silver coins flooding the world right because they discovered so much silver in latin america that is what fueled the tulip mania right so generally if there's an inflation in the money supply assets go up we have a huge inflation in the money supply and assets are going up i'm not calling a top i don't know when that would be but i will say that it is it is a dangerous game if you're piling on stocks at these levels but that does not mean at all that there aren't still potential great opportunities long term for instance if you look at the arc genomic revolution etf this contains absolutely revolutionary companies in health care such as crispr therapeutics and companies that are involved in the gene editing space right so it's an absolutely revolutionary space and it's going to change how medicine is done forever so you know think 40 50 years out and you look at this and you say okay our genomic revolution jf yes it's it's you know has lots of overvalued companies in it but it's also corrected 50 from its all-time high so at some point you will want to be getting into revolutionary technologies that are going to eat the world and change everything also you have companies like zillow you know zillow's like the 100th most popular website in the entire world it's disruptive completely the real estate industry is an extremely valuable tool now that people are relying on and there's a really powerful network around it i just bought a house recently and we knew as much as the realtor did about pretty much the entire real estate market because of zillow because there's so much valuable information on it it's a very very valuable tool and you can see here that it's trading at the same level as it did in about 2013.
so my point is i agree with munger that stocks are completely overvalued generally but it doesn't mean they can't melt up higher it doesn't mean there aren't still opportunities but it is a dangerous game if you're going to be playing the top of a of a bubble environment like this because yes eventually there will be a nasty correction monger has been a longtime fan of us tech stocks with berkshire hathaway now a major shareholder in apple so this is just a really important point that yes he sees frenzy but yes he's also invested in one of the biggest tech stocks in the world right so he's not calling top i don't think him and buffett ever call tops they just like to hoard cash and buy things when they get cheap so they're waiting for that opportunity here's a little gem on friday he singled out u.s discount retailer costco as one of his favorite companies they had the right model and having its customers become members and a strong focus on holding down costs so that's a good one for you guys if you want to research costco this is really interesting i predict that costco will eventually become a huge internet player so that may or may not be priced into the current stock but if they become a massive e-commerce presence and competitor with things like amazon and alibaba well that is really cool it's good to know you know he's done his due diligence on that company now here's another really interesting thing he's saying right i love the fact we're rapidly reducing the burning of coal and the burning of gasoline and diesel and replacing them with electricity from renewable sources we talked a lot on the show about how in rapidly crushing the coal and gas industries there's a huge void in the energy that renewable cannot fill and that uranium is the only current base load power source that can fill that gap so again it's interesting that he thinks that renewables can just fill the void of colon and gas well i guess since nuclear is considered a green energy maybe he's considering nuclear there too something else bunker said that was really interesting he hit out at cryptocurrencies and said they should never have been invented this is this is absolutely fascinating to me because yes you can't really value bitcoin the same way you can value a company that cash flows or real estate the cash flows but you can't throw the baby out with the bathwater because the metaverse video games that are going on the blockchain and tokens that give you a voting stake in digital universes that have booming economies that are cash flowing and that give you a stake in ownership right to the those cash flows you actually can buy tokens that allow you to invest in metaverses and when you think of metaverses think of video game worlds that are all on the blockchain where every piece of data can be bought and sold and owned and you can buy land and the cars and buildings you can buy all of that which are all unique in a digital world and they can generate cash because you have visitors in the digital world bringing their us dollars bringing their fiat currency and spending it in the digital world so if you own those digital assets that are generating that that revenue that fiat revenue and you own a token over that metaverse that gives you a voting stake in that metaverse you own a share of the cash flow of that digital economy and so that is a legitimate business it's as legitimate as owning a share of video game companies that profit from people paying to use it and buying things in game i found this very very very fascinating because he is still extremely bullish on china munger said there was less enthusiasm about china and the us there had been in the past so i've operated under the thought that it's hard to sleep at night knowing that the state has complete and utter control and it's very difficult for me to get my head around investing in a totalitarian state that operates under the communist banner but here we have one of the greatest investors of all time being bullish from china so almost every capitalist is less enthusiastic about china than they were a year ago but i am not despairing it all about china wow wow he said i don't think we're going to have a nuclear war and if we don't have one i think the only thing to do is get along with china and i think both china and the united states will be smart enough to see that nothing is more important to both countries than getting along with one another and that's what i think will happen so i guess he thinks that if we don't go to nuclear war then chinese very very bullish in china even though they're in the middle of a property collapse similar to the one in japan in the 90s that led to a lost decade in stocks so i still find it very interesting because you could have could have been bullish in china for the last year for the same reasons and lost a lot of money investing in this in this country so i'm not saying that stocks aren't completely oversold and potentially there is value and yes they could three 4x but can you sleep well at night knowing that your money is invested in a very murky political totalitarian system so overall a lot of interesting thoughts from you know one of the greatest investors of all time i'll put the link to this article in the description if you want to read the whole thing i do find it interesting that berkshire hathaway is hundreds of billions of dollars in cash given the inflationary environment where cash is rapidly being devalued and china is an interesting one i'd love to hear your guys comments on that again he's bullish he's been bullish lots of people have been bullish i haven't been because it's hard to be comfortable investing in that type of environment and uh i think the market gave a big haircut to china because of their collapsing real estate bubble and the corrupt politics so it's kind of your call yes stocks have crashed yes there could be some deep value especially if one of the wisest people in the world thinks so but you make the call but i'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments thanks for listening i thought this article was it was really fun and interesting and i had to share it with you guys let me know what you think and stay tuned for more this discussion is for informational purposes only nothing in this discussion should be taken as investment advice guests are not compensated for their appearance do not base any investment decisions on the information presented
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