원문 보기
what is going on investors hopefully you guys are having a great day and it's always a good day when a major stocks has earnings and that was nvidia today ticker symbol nvda now over the last year stock's up huge 77 but we started to give back some of those gains year-to-date the stocks down about nine percent i'm seeing in the after hours after reporting q4 earnings that just came in and we'll get into them we'll take a look this is like one of my most favorite slides in all of the stock market it gives you a quarter over quarter view over at nvidia in their different business units i wish all companies did this there's some interesting stuff happening with some of the trends and it's not just in gaming and data center we're actually seeing some exciting stuff with nvidia on other areas of their business come over here take a look at the revenues and the profits just like we always do the balance sheet the cash flows over in nvidia as you can imagine they're fantastic now in the after hours stocks down just marginally and i know i got a lot of lines on here but i will explain this from a technical perspective i think one of the reasons why the stock is down about nine percent in the after hours it's just kind of hanging out is from a technical perspective this one is painting two different pictures okay and so i'll talk about the two different pictures it's painting and how you will know which way depending on if it goes up it's gonna signal one thing if it goes down it will signal another thing obviously when stocks go up and down it tends to help you make your decisions i think nvidia's at is like kind of on a balancing point and we'll talk about which way it goes and because i think it's going to go there pretty quick based on how it's setting up from a technical perspective we also get the earnings out of the way and they were fantastic revenue's coming in at 7.64 billion dollars you do have to keep in mind this is a 662 billion dollar company and for the full year we had just 27 billion dollars worth of revenue i say just because of 27 billion dollars worth of revenue a 662 billion dollar market cap is pretty hefty and then when you come down to earnings you're paying a forward pe in the 60s on this one so you have to be comfortable with that but look at this year-over-year growth rate put this in your pipe and smoke it all you intel fanboys because this is the reason why this stock gets this premium valuation and intel does not because you've got 52.8 percent year over anytime i got a chip stock i gotta rub it into the fanboys they uh yeah we give it to each other hard times in the comments but it's all good this is business it's not personal now that revenue did beat by 210 million dollars we talked about hair shares initially we're down three percent they've recovered a little bit from a technical perspective it all makes a lot of sense now they did give us q1 revenue guidance that's the quarter we're in right now we'll see in three months when that is reported revenue is expected to come in that 8.1 billion range so that's another 500 million on top of what we just did now unfortunately as if you've been following the channel on our friday thanks talk recap shows where we've included nvidia into that group they had an arm write off about 1.36 billion as that deal fell apart in the most recent quarter as well now in nvidia's quarterly revenue trends we see gaming year over year you went to from 3.4 billion last year you're adjusted 2.5 take a look at data center hello you went from 1.9 all the way up to 3.2 obviously the two dominant revenue centers are this gaming and data center and we're actually seeing data center maybe potentially surpass gaming at some point which would just be absolutely phenomenal for this business but what i'm also seeing down here is professional visualization take a look at this we went from 307 to 643.
obviously if you can continue that type of growth year over year you'd be over a billion dollars in revenue in a quarter on that business line that would then finally give nvidia actually three different business lines over a billion dollars this professional and visualization you might be wondering what this is this is omniverse this is metaverse i actually saw a demonstration of this software which is the bulk of these revenues i believe it's other pieces of software as well but inside of here is some really cool software that combines some adobe photoshop some autodesk modeling software to allow you to build 3d models and things like that using nvidia servers and oh my goodness it's a very cool piece of software and obviously it has gotten a lot of traction especially over the last couple of quarters you've seen really this segment of the business really increase and i know a lot of people are going to get on and talk about gaming and data center look it's great i i don't expect these business lines to really slow down at all the icing on the cake would be if we can really build up this professional visualization into a one billion two billion dollar three billion dollar business because you can imagine the margins on that business might be even better than their current business that's i mean this is why this stock has just has a premium valuation and it always has now on terms of our revenue that came from five billion last year all the way up to 7.6 this left-hand column is our most recent quarter we see our gross profit coming in at 5 billion i tell you what's so impressive about this company is so much of the revenue flows down into the rest of the balance sheet so off 7.6 billion dollars worth of revenue we had just 2.6 billion dollars worth of cost so we keep five billion dollars then we have r d costs and selling and marketing take a look at selling and marketing you grew your revenues by 52 and you're selling and marketing from a rounding perspective is almost identical it went from 503 up to 563 that's basically nothing when we're talking about numbers this big their products sell their selves over in nvidia and on top of that they're not burning a bunch of money and gna costs as well we did spend a little bit more money on research development as you'd expect from 1.1 billion up to about 1.5 billion so our total operating expenses went from 1.65 up just barely to 2 billion dollars so you take this five billion you minus off two billion and you come down to income from operations at nearly three billion dollars more exactly 2.97 billion dollars last year you're about 50 lower at 1.5 billion so here's what i talked about with this company off of 7.6 billion dollars worth of revenue 2.9 billion comes all the way down to income from operations this after you pay all your employees all your expenses you clear that and then you come down here you pay some income taxes and you clear all the way down to your bottom line 2.8 billion dollars or in this case quite frankly all the way down here to 3 billion on for the full year paints the identical story take a look at this off 27 billion dollars worth of revenue 9.7 billion flows down to the bottom line it's not quite 50 but it's pretty darn close it's just absolutely phenomenal that's why if you continue to believe in these revenue trends continuing to go up well this is a perfect company to invest in because this is literally as about as good as it gets in this sector there's people certainly will argue that this cannot continue but if it keeps continuing for a reasonable period of time there's certainly more gains that are likely had with a stock like this now in terms of their assets got a crap ton of cash on the balance sheet now 21.2 billion dollars they were probably kind of building this up for that arm acquisition they probably wanted to have a little bit of cash there to help complete that deal well now that's fallen apart and they're sitting on a fat lot of cash they've got literally i mean just your total current assets that includes a little bit of inventory as well you're in that 28 billion dollars they have a ton more cash on this balance sheet and so my guess is they built up they had to build up cash to close that arm deal and now since it's not closing they're just sitting on a boatload of cash that they really quite frankly don't really need take a look at long-term debt over the last year you went from 5.9 up to 10.9 i don't want to speak for the company but again my belief is this company was building up cash through the debt markets to raise money to close on that arm deal and since that did not go through uh well i don't know what they're going to do with the cash is anybody's guess at this point take a look at this from cash flows from operations you had three billion dollars in net income this is for the three months you had three billion dollars of net cash flow into the company it's the exact same picture for the 12 months so when you look at a net income number over at nvidia it's identical to their cash flows almost okay you had 9752 on that net income that's 9 billion 752 million and you flowed 9.1 billion dollars down to net cash provided by operating activities it's absolutely fantastic here's that issuance of debt about 5 billion they repaid about a billion dollars but all things being considered this is a fantastic company from a cash flow perspective really good from a balance sheet perspective because now they have all this cash that i don't know what they're gonna do with and on top of that you have a company that basically prints money unlike any other company that we've seen outside of maybe apple maybe microsoft but i don't think apple and microsoft even have these type of margins maybe we're talking about google in this sense but this is a reason why people have elevated this stock it's with very very good reason those are as good of fundamentals as you'll see now when you match that up to the 662 billion valuation i can understand some investors saying that's a little rich and i agree but obviously when you factor in also the growth rate and the sector that this stock is playing in and not only that it looks like they have another business unit on the brink of maybe becoming a major profit center for this company well there's probably a reason why it's got a big old valuation on it now from a technical perspective okay so i have this purple line right here this stock is depending on how you draw this in okay some people might draw it in up here down here down here there's a a bunch of ways you can tilt this purple line and from a technical perspective often times you can draw lines until it tells you what it wants to tell you but longer term this one is probably technically in an uptrend still okay there's some people that might argue that it's it's hanging on a line it's back testing up to that i don't know so because that line isn't telling us anything specific i'm going to take it out i know for a fact though we have a bed of support down here in the 220 to 230 dollar range this candle i should really make this a square you have demand for the shares between i would say all the way down to 210 up to about 230.
there's certainly demand now in the shorter term i'm gonna take that line out here we've got this dark green line shorter term we're creating a series of lows here and a higher set of lows and in the after hours we're starting to create another grouping of higher lows so very shorter term we're talking about just over the last month stocks actually in an uptrend now in the intermediate term going back to last november basically the last earnings call on this one we're actually in a downtrend we're making a series of lower highs and if this completes it again here this stock would actually head lower and likely towards our area of support down here at 220.
now the way i'm playing this one since some of you that follow the channel know i bought this one all the way back i don't know when it was it was back i think after this earnings drop or something stock was like at 40 dollars split adjusted they had a split back in june i can't remember what the split was but i didn't buy them for 40 but split adjusted that was my cost i sold out of this one i took some profits on this one and it's nothing against nvidia we've just gone through the financials and it's not saying that's something that you to do is portfolio specific to me the fact that i had such massive gains in this one also i feel that from a fundamental perspective in order to double this market cap to go to a 1.5 2 trillion dollar company boy i think they while they are growing rapidly they're going to have to continue that growth rate just in an area in a sector that is marginally hard to continue that so i took some profits on this one and but what i'm looking for is really probably a break to this upside i think you break to this upside doesn't necessarily signal an immediate buy because i think you'll retest these areas up here these sellers would emerge what i'm waiting for is to see if this one wants to go sideways if it wants to go sideways you're buying opportunities are down here under i would say 240 dollars per share your areas to sell are likely not accumulate the shares are up here at about 331.
i think that's the high probability if this one does break down i will step in here and purchase some shares of this one as it moves down the valuation makes more sense but from a fundamental perspective there's only three or four other companies in this stock market that look as good as this in terms of revenue growth and not only revenue growth but flowing that revenue all the way down to operating profits and net income and free cash flow i mean i would keep going on how much i love this company but year to date it's down nine percent so if this one's not in your portfolio i think you can seriously think about taking some small nibbles on here just keep in mind from a technical perspective it's painting two stories short term uptrend intermediate term downtrend longer term probably still in an uptrend so if all those cancel out the stock is probably likely to head higher in the coming days that was nvidia hopefully you guys enjoyed that video good luck with your investments
Comments 0