저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준의 금리 인상이 2023년 3월 금리 인하 기대와 맞물려 리스크 자산에 유리하다는 관점. 연준은 시장 기대를 관리하며 한 차례 더 인상 후 마무리될 것으로 봄. 규제는 2024년 크립토 ETF 승인 등 진전이 기대되나 거래소 구조(코인베이스) 문제로 지연 가능. 달러는 금리 하락 시 약세, 비트코인과 경쟁 관계는 제한적. 스테이블코인 투명성 규제가 선행돼야 한다는 주장.
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no way cars for coins coming dude you're coming in right away before I talk about my next segment what's up dude when you were coming in as a speaker right now dude welcome aboard man you are in my streams like every freaking day man and I know you're the guy who sold Bitcoin or no you sold your car at 19 000 on bitcoin or whatever because YOLO it into Bitcoin what's up man welcome okay waiting waiting for your mic I'll give you a chance to set that up but there we go I'm trying not to crash my car hey what's up man Twitter space isn't driving at least I'm assuming you're on autopilot Oh Yeah Yeah by autopiling me and looking at my phone no Kevin yes I did sell my car uh for crypto half ethereum half Bitcoin I'm up 30 so uh it was a 911 turbo so it's doing pretty well up 30 grand um but you know you're an amazing Channel you've got me through the bear Market kept my head on straight and uh kept me buying stuff uh I went all in on coinbase at thirty three dollars it went all in so that's doing pretty well wow congratulations that's amazing so uh clearly very uh uh very bullish on uh on on crypto then despite all of uh the the regulatory drama that this is maybe the beginning of the end for the regulation drama well it's an asymmetrical BET right when uh everything's low the Psychiatry tells you to sell but if you're selling when everything's low it's the opposite so it's am I bullish long term yes I think anybody who has a long time frame wins so if you have a two three year time frame It lines up with both the rate cuts which you just spoke about coming in March and the Bitcoin having which is in April and typically the peak is one year after so if your investment Horizon expands to 2025 and you're buying crypto now safe projects I think you're going to do very well but I want to ask you Kevin uh do you think the FED actually pauses I mean continues pausing this time continues at the same rates or to actually raise like the market expression because they've been expecting doing whatever the market expects so far right yeah well it's it's a little bit of a chicken or egg problem uh I'll answer that let me first say regarding your alignment I think that's a phenomenal uh statement that you made this this idea of I mean think about an alignment of a low rate environment potentially again in other words rate Cuts inflation being gone probably the economy not being in a recession the Bitcoin having and maybe 2023 is the year of Regulation hell but maybe they finally figure it out and by 2024 you get crypto ETS you get regulation and and you actually get these companies that are able to recover so I think you're completely right I think that is a phenomenal uh argument to make and I think that's awesome that basically you were you were buying ETFs and and then then at one point you decided you know what this is this is my time to strike and you dump those and you bought crypto so congratulations uh regarding the the Fed so I call it a chicken or egg problem because as much as the FED likes to say oh we just do what the market projects you know we just like to follow the market we don't want to surprise the market the FED creates the market essentially they forecast hey you know what we might be thinking two more rate hikes well what do they do by saying that by saying two or more even rate hikes like what Jerome Powell did in Portugal you guarantee one more rate hike and that I think is what they were trying to do they were trying to say look we we went 25 or we went for pause in June we don't care that it is a historically stupid idea I personally think this to hike again after pausing I think it's idiotic because you send the signal of the the FED being inconsistent or not you know having this stop start mentality their argument is no no we're just trying to stretch out you know that's the way they're selling it we're trying to stretch out these rate hikes uh but uh yeah look we're at like a 90 chance of getting this 25.
uh after these two reports we're still getting a reiteration from well at least yesterday after all the feds speak yesterday after CPI we're still getting a reiteration of the 25 so we're going to get to 25. but it will almost certainly be the last rate hike after the reports that we've gotten so uh yeah I do think we're still gonna get to 25 even though I disagree with it even though I think it's nonsense we're gonna get it well Kevin you say half inflation battle is managing expectations right so that's exactly what they're doing they're managing expectations they don't like your Nike Swoosh recovery they don't like these mean coins popping off like Pepe uh which I do not recommend but uh that's exactly what they're doing they're just manage expectations they want to keep things cool and they don't want to you know mess up their their whole plan because if expectations get out of hand people are like okay we're done we're done we're done let's all go in let's all buy Lambos then they're gonna go back and do the whole you know they're gonna have to rock pools like you say yeah you know it's actually very interesting the they are so uh every single time they speak they they talk about how their biggest priority is get making sure inflation is getting down that that too many people are hurting and what they're doing by saying this is they're not actually talking to us in finance they're talking to the regular American who's like dude everything is more expensive Cheesecake Factory the grocery store everything's more expensive the regular American doesn't understand this inflation versus deflation versus inflation they don't understand that stuff and that's fine let people be fearful it makes it cheaper for us to buy the stocks we like okay it's just the way it is our schools don't educate people in finance it's bad we should but we don't so anyway so you've got most people who are completely clueless about this stuff and you have a fad that creates headlines almost every single time they have these rounds of fed speak going we're gonna get inflation now this is all we're gonna do we're gonna keep going until we get it down and really what they're doing is you're just massaging those expectations down because what they didn't do in the 70s was care about expectations they didn't even pay attention to them until 1981 when they finally realized and and you can actually see this in transcript conversations amongst fed members that oh wow nothing we're doing is affecting expectations maybe that's why we still have inflation and then it wasn't until you basically had Paul volcker stand up and say the number one enemy is inflation we will crush inflation no matter what it takes now I'm gonna align that with what I'm doing and raising rates that's basically what the FED is doing today they're like even though behind closed doors into the finance folks you know they're like this is great like this is Goldilocks this is fantastic inflation's going down we might avoid a recession this is great publicly they need to put on the face of we will not stop until the job is done you know maybe even though we're basically there it's this is all expectation massaging so you're 100 right with what you're saying you start getting you know like the more I hear people on social media leave me angry comments that are like what do you mean you know inflation is getting better and it's transitory everything's still expensive well first of all we know they fundamentally misunderstand inflation but second of all that is good the more you have people like that the less they're doing what you said and going out buying Lambos and borrowing to spend all their stuff and don't get me wrong people are still spending like crazy but you're 100 right with which sake you know what's interesting uh expectations is also like the main thing of normal human relationships it just goes back to normal psychology like any time you upset your wife or piss off a friend it's all about expectations managing expectations you either tell them you're gonna do something you don't do it or you mess up uh you just it's like I said it just goes back to mismanaging expectations we jump back to the compliance thing um with regulatory with crypto yeah yeah please please it it really seems to me from everything I'm hearing is that the main person is holding back from actually putting forward regulation is Gary ginsler and if you listen very closely to what he said during that CNBC interview that's pretty famous and you've called him out for that also I appreciate it is the one little thing he said is uh coinbase is doing too much so coinbase is doing more than just trading crypto they want a custody they wanna um they have the staking services and they have the Futures market now and have all these products and I seems like Jerry's really frustrated and Confused uh or at least using that as a scapegoat to not provide regulation because they're doing so many different things and actually yesterday he went on some meeting he's actually given some feedback about the ETFs saying that uh people call them out say Hey you know coinbase is using uh I'm sorry uh all these ETFs are using coinbase for their uh what is SAS I'm not sure what that is it's uh it's like custody now everything Market making custody it's everything together right so he's saying that uh he doesn't trust coinbase he's saying that coinbase is basically going to trade against you on the back end and they're gonna mess with you and and they're gonna it's gonna be bad for the consumer so that's what he's saying uh meanwhile at 2X uh a 2X leverage ETF is approved does that make sense Kevin so is leverage safer than a spotty yeah not really no no you're right so to break it down a little bit um what you have with coinbase uh or sorry with the leveraged DTS is you have Futures uh ETFs that are leveraged that are approved and Futures are really contracts they're they're not actually Bitcoin they're just papers like you have to kind of think about it as like hey I'm sitting down I make a handshake deal with you and let's go trade this contract the Futures contracts have existed for everything and there there's a pretty clear path to getting those uh approved uh and then getting leveraged versions of those when it comes to what you're talking about with coinbase it actually makes me think that it's entirely possible that if we get into this bull cycle here you could actually see coinbase end up having multiple mini IPOs basically splitting the business into multiple different things think about how the main uh like the the traditional markets work today you have have an exchange which I I know initially when we hear exchange it sounds complicated but just think of an exchange as uh you know like I always think of RuneScape you go to the middle of the Town Square and you got a bunch of trading stalls and somebody's selling bread and you walk up you're like yo I want to buy some of your bread how much is it and you're like oh my Bread's five bucks and you're like I'm gonna walk over there and get the bread for you know 4.90 I'm Gonna Save myself 10 cents that's a market that's how we get price Discovery because we have individuals representing the market and participating the market participants so we have an exchange which you know it's kind of like the the vest I'm wearing here the New York Stock Exchange that's our traditional exchange then you've got Market participants sitting on the floor so floor Brokers and market makers they work price Discovery then you have actual brokers who are like your Robin Hood that like you as a retail individual essentially get access to that Marketplace because you can't walk into that Town Square you have to go through a broker and basically what I've just shown you is three different levels here right the exchange the market maker price Discovery uh and then the broker uh and then the Brokers are custody in your assets as well so you have these three different layers with coinbase it's all in one it's the exchange the price Discovery and the broker all in one and that's very different from traditional finance and that leaves no precedent for the SEC and no rules from Congress so you kind of have Gary Gensler you know which obviously almost nobody in crypto likes because you know especially in that famous CNBC interview he's talking about how like what do you mean digital dollar we don't need that we already have one and it's called the dollar right that kind of makes people question his sincerity in general uh although I don't know if he meant to say that buddy I mean that's what he said but anyway uh yeah look it's um it's going to be a rocky ride over the next year I mean we just heard about you know what some uh one of the executives over at Celsius getting arrested and new lawsuit against Celsius so it'll be a lot of cleaning up but once it's clean it's it's gonna be uh it's gonna be great for crypto once it's all cleaned up Kevin do you think the dollar is competing with Bitcoin I probably it's it's interesting because there to some extent both somewhat speculative uh assets I don't think that somebody who looks at Bitcoin as a digital gold would ever invest in the dollar so that's not somebody who is a competitor somebody who doesn't like digital dollars would invest not in the dollar they'd invest in just gold probably so I don't think you have competition there you certainly have competition for trading and speculation 100 you have that uh as far as a means of exchange I you probably have little uh reason to use Bitcoin at this point unless you're using it as for like for an international means of exchange and really I'd say most of the speculation in the dollar today is based on how high rates will be and given that we've had these two week inflation reports you're seeing the dollar get piled on in terms of ashore you know the dollar really peaked around actually about a year from now when inflation was at Peak because people thought rates would stay high for long the higher rates are the more people are attracted to buying our treasury bonds because it's the safest instrument in the world uh deemed risk-free and and people need to buy the dollar to be able to get access to those treasuries so I think you have a lot of different competing purposes for the different Assets in fact you have almost an opposite purpose to buy Bitcoin versus the dollar like you go long Bitcoin when you short the dollar uh so I suppose that would be an interesting way to maybe say there's some competition but they're certainly not competing for the same thing um in that regard because again as rates fall risk assets are going to go up which is great for crypto and the dollar is going to go down because yields are going down so um probably too too hard to compare on a direct level but but look if we just step back for a moment and say is is there a competition between the dollar and Bitcoin I think when we look at it from the SEC level yeah yes absolutely because that's where you literally had Gary again so say what do we need basically digital currency for we have digital currency it's called the dollar right so on that level there is I'd say that's where him and your I don't want to say you're wrong but there's a common misconception that Bitcoin wants to be a digital currency uh first of all it's not fast enough exactly way too volatile so I'm not gonna hold Bitcoin in my business bank account and have employees to pay an overhead so the whole idea that we don't need we don't need a digital currency we have digital dollar that's it just really pisses me off and I apologize for my uh no you should be pissed and whether or not Bitcoin is seen as that that actual digital currency replacement I I agree with you that's that's not really the argument I think more the argument is like why is Gary saying that right like what what really why does he get to decide what really should be up to Congress and Congress should be deciding and regulating what the people want if people want different options for a digital assets then Congress should create a framework for that it's really just Congress that's way behind here Congress is ultimately uh the the the group or the institution that decides this uh it's not going to be some judge that somehow magically figures out that digital assets belong and how to regulate them although that's just what the SEC is backed into because of all the fraud that's occurred so they have to file these lawsuits to try to squeeze the industry to mitigate fraud uh and uh and then hopefully spur Congress to regulate that's at least my thesis on what's going on but I agree with you on 2024.
there there are laws in queue there are two me I think Pat two means some other Loomis are working on bills that are already presented and they're still working on them but to go back just one more thing um from my experience we have sold cars for crypto in the bull market right now nobody's doing that they're selling cars but what really happens in the functional functional usage of crypto is people speculate on bitcoin so they'll use the dollars to buy Bitcoin they'll use stocks by ethereum and you know more risky low cap coins and then they're gonna cash out into usdc which is a circle product uh also uh heavily tied coinbase uh so for me I see usdc as the digital currency that's competing with a dollar that can actually become a cbdc in the future and that's built in ethereum why I love ethereum so practically speaking to say that big we don't need a digital dollar is I was competing with Bitcoin I'm sorry it's just it's just crazy um like I said like you buy very very speculative highly volatile Bitcoin so that with dollars so they can later put into usdc and then you can send it overseas or or buy a car or whatever with it and that's the actual practical use of crypto is that you put into stable coins so number one has got to start with stablecoin regulation which is the first step you uh you know if I'm holding usdc like my plan 2025 I'm cashing out 90 to usdc paying my taxes long-term capital gains and then I'm gonna go back in when it crashes by 50 60 again 26 and return 2030 but like you said it starts with regulation and that's what coinbase wants and eventually they're going to get it and it's going to be a beautiful thing so appreciate your time Kevin thank you yeah absolutely and I completely agree with you by the way I'm a big fan of stable coins to the extent that they have transparency and I think that's what regulation will bring because right now you know we we don't know still today how I mean obviously we've seen the ramifications of it but the amount of Leverage on these cbdc's uh well sorry not the CBC speeds we don't have those yet the on on stable coins uh is is is obviously an issue this is where we get the rehypothecation that took down block fi and Voyager which was literally what we had the CEOs on and I asked them about I go there's got to be so much risk in these cable coins like I'm personally still so frustrated I'm looking back and like give us transparency of the stable coins like I want to like stable coins but there's no way you're offering nine percent without all this crazy re-hypothecation they're like don't worry we have safeguards in place yeah oh oops just give it all the three arrows capital what's the same so yeah true transparency there in a real functional stable coin I'm all in yep and no I don't trust tether just for the record nice that's awesome dude this has been amazing thank you so much man thank you Kevin I'll hop on anytime you want thank you
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