저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
버블을 미리 알아보는 것이 큰 부를 얻는 길이며, 버블은 항상 같은 양상(직장 이탈, 주식 열풍, 모두가 투자 이야기)으로 나타나지만 결국 모두 나쁘게 끝난다는 주장. 버블 판단은 예측이라기보다 사이클 위치를 파악하고 위험을 더 질지 덜 질지 정하는 것이라는 견해. 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 투자 방식: 싸고 긍정적 변화가 일어나는 것을 찾아 리서치 후 매수하고, 부정적 변화가 생기면 매도. 사이클을 의식적으로 보지는 않는다고 말함. 저평가 기준: 적자 산업, 낮은 PER·PBR 등. 다만 싸다고 무조건 사면 안 되며, 헝가리(1956) 사례처럼 변화 없이 오래 정체될 수 있음. 핵심 원칙: 싼 것이 틀려도 손실은 제한적일 수 있으나, 긍정적 변화가 실제로 일어나야 수익이 난다.
다듬은 글
do you look at the long-term pattern or is there a catalyst i know catalysts should be important for you or or how how can you be more but the bubbles are already happening uh when when you see a bubble i mean you you can't if you can see a bubble in advance you're going to get very rich then you can buy it before everybody else and you will get extremely rich if you get out in time the best people in a bubble you know somebody who's 25 26 years old they don't know about bubbles they think this is normal they think they're very very very smart and they're going to make a lot of money now an old guy like me would say come on this is insane uh but 26 year olds they've never seen it they think they think they're smart they think it's beautiful so in a bubble you need a 26 year old but when the bubble's over you better not have a 26 year old because the 26 year old is going to lose everything for you but the only way i know uh you can read about them you can go back in history have been many bubbles many people have written about bubbles so just learn about them they're all the same so so we should we should spend fair amount of time when we learn about investments to to study history and study the psychology of bubbles i i think that's very important and i i quote from you because the more certain is something uh the less likely it is to be profitable it's a it's one of five of you famous and how do you know when it's time and is it it's not too early to jump in because yeah of course you if you know it will be a bubble then it's less and less certain and you can make more and more money but how how do you know you don't worry you watch financial fitness as i said all bubbles are the same you see people leaving their jobs leaving their professions to go to the investment world you know everybody believe you go to the doctor and the nurse wants to talk to you about the stock market everybody wants to talk about that you you go to a restaurant and they have the television on watching the stock market you know it becomes a a mania they all look the same uh the signs you just have to be alert be alert to them and stocks go up every day or whatever the bubble is it could be commodities you know whatever it is goes up all the time uh if it goes down people rush to buy more it it always happens but again i want to remind you peter all bubbles pop all bubbles have always ended badly and please be aware of that there are bubbles they're recurring understandable yeah yeah and and i think what you talk about is not predicting really the future because you can't exactly do that but preparing for the future you can you can know and i it's something from from howard mark's memo that it's not about really predicting the future but you can look at where we are in the cycle and you can decide do i want to take more risk or less risk and that's how you play something like that or no i'm not that smart i just when i find something that is where i see something cheap where there's positive change taking place i do some research and if i if it's cheap i buy it and then i try to own it as long as i can until there's a new change that's negative and then i hope i'm smart enough to sell it no i don't think about cycles and things like that but usually if speaking of a cycle if things are depressed you're in a down cycle and there are a lot of things that are cheap but uh no i'm just i'm too simple i just try to come across things that are very cheap and where there's a change and then i buy it or if it's very very very expensive i will try to sell it short and how do you define cheap is it that you can buy one dollar for 50 cents or well that's those those are taglines that people use um i mean if an industry has been losing money and all the stocks are bankrupt or merely bankrupt or you know haven't done anything for years that's usually a sign they may be cheap they probably have low p e ratios or low book value ratios things like that uh the the situation will tell me uh just because i see a country that was nothing has happened and that may mean it's cheap but that doesn't mean you should buy it because it may stay that way it may stay that way for a long long time you know if you'd invested in hungary in 1956 it was cheap but you didn't make any money and nothing happened for a long long time you have to look for something that's changing that's positive uh it's the change which makes will help make you a lot of money fortunately if it's cheap you and you're wrong you're probably not going to lose too much money but if you get it right and there is a positive change taking place you might make some money you
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