저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2023년 주택시장 폭락론(bear 주장)을 반박하는 영상. 신규 대출자 DTI 상승은 신규 거래 감소 때문에 과장된 지표라고 주장. 계약금 비율 하락, 연체율, 가계부채/소득비율(9.6%, 하락 추세) 근거로 대규모 붕괴 가능성 낮다고 봄. 다만 일부 지역 15~20% 조정은 가능. 장기적으로 디플레이션 후 QE 재개 가능성을 언급하며 자산 확보 권고. 중국 부양책도 언급.
다듬은 글
real estate of bears and I suppose it's also worth looking at some of the bear arguments so let me pull up a bear argument I was just reading about the other day and I thought some of it was a little disingenuous but then again disingenuous bear arguments have kind of been what we found rapidly throughout 2023 here so it's actually another one of these uh reventure Consulting pieces and there's talk about this mortgage crisis brewing and so this headline a piece here which got quite a few likes on Twitter did very well here you know 7488 likes here is very good but anyway this year indicates the debt to income ratio for all home buyers and what you find is that the DTI levels debt to income levels for new mortgages sitting at about 40 percent which is actually higher than the 39.1 percent where we were in the 2006-2007 a bubble now in my opinion some of this is you know obviously at first glance it's concerning but it's worth noting what this chart is actually showing you this chart is not showing you the debt to income level of all owners of Real Estate it's actually showing you the debt to income level of new borrowers of real estate and why is that so important it's so important because the nominal number of sales that are occurring in real estate right now are actually at substantial lows pull those up to show you those but if you jump on over to the Redfin data center you can see this in detail and we'll go through that but think about that for a moment in 2006 you were actually at the highs of number of properties sold in fact we'll see if the St Louis fed has one as well a number of properties sold in the United States we'll see if we can get a few charts to compare here but this is important to consider how many nominal number of homes are actually selling why does that matter it matters because if you have let's just say 4 million home sales in a year selling where individuals have a forty percent debt to income level but then you only have two million sales in another year where people have a forty percent debt to income level well then this scenario while it might actually look similar to 2006 is potentially half as bad as previously because you're existing owner stock your existing debtors so to speak it's actually substantially lower uh than what you had then so St Louis Fred indicator here this is the their chart unfortunately only goes back to July of 2022 which isn't great but clearly shows you a decline in existing sales here we'll work on getting a little bit more data on this but oh here we go home sold this should give us the Redfin data center should go back a little bit further hopefully no also only goes back to about 2020.
it's unfortunate I'd like to get a little bit of a larger chart here but as we can see on the Redfin data center as well we're at a substantially lower level of sales and certainly where we were in 2021 or 2022 by quite a bit if we compare 2020 uh what do we have here 2023 to 2021 you're down more than 40 percent in sales whereas year over year we're down about 16 so that's something to keep in mind as well is that the existing level of uh of owners will certainly probably have a substantially lower 30-year fixed trade mortgage where their debt to income is actually way lower than what this chart is revealing but as usual a single chart can't tell you so terribly much about what's actually happening in the economy so I didn't really love this chart there's some other insights here as well such as this here home buyer down payment over the last 25 years and this idea that the number that the down payment people were placing is declining this really feeds into people's mostly incorrect notion that the less money you put down the less capable of a borrower you are pause for a moment and think about that most people have this impression that oh if you don't put 20 down you're over leveraging your real estate but that's not necessarily true especially if you're able to get yourself a good deal for example many of the course members who are my real estate program and real estate investing find great deals putting three three and a half percent or five percent down to where after they buy the property and they spend maybe say fifteen twenty thousand dollars on Renovations it's actually almost as if they've put closer to 20 or sometimes even 30 percent down because they bought the property below market value so really lower down payments I don't think are necessarily A a sign of somebody buying uh you know without the ability to qualify in fact if anything and this is something to consider for that first chart as well the ability to qualify at all today is substantially harder than what it used to be back in uh you know the uh of 2006 six and seven period essentially anybody was able to get a loan in 2006 and seven whereas today you actually have to prove that you have the ability to repay a loan that might not sound like a big deal to you but it's actually a technical phrase in the real estate world that A lender is signing off saying I believe this consumer has the ability to actually repay this loan that's because back in 2006 nobody cared if the person defaulted and you might think that well that's wrong I mean that could never happen no it actually still happens today just look at the subprime auto market so if you consider the subprime auto market you're finding that the underwriting fees and loan fees that car buyers are paying mean that the lenders still make profit even if 70 plus percent of the car buyers default because they're taking so many fees up front and even after they sell the car for its residual value after some form of liquidation of the asset you know repossession liquidation the lenders still make money that's predatory Landing these subprime auto loans are not actually signing people up for a loan that the lenders or dealerships actually believe that the customer has an ability to repay for that's very different from what you have in real estate now so home buyer down payments going down over the last 25 years you know from an average of say 21 to 18 percent frankly matters zero in fact there is another person on social media they made a YouTube video uh and they're talking about this impending real estate crash and they did this classic fallacious argumentation where where they go look at this Bank of America now offering zero percent down loans you know what that means and then they kind of Leave It to the audience to conclude that somebody putting zero percent down is actually bad but that's not actually true because if somebody has let's say a 720 credit score and they're getting a good deal on property and they're getting a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and they have the ability to repay at that level because maybe they have a higher salary but they have less savings or are choosing to use less of their savings because they can borrow for a 30-year fixed rate term uh and maybe they're walking into some kind of uh race diversity based uh you know credits or subsidies a lot of these lower down payment programs like the zero percent or one percent loans are dedicated to either you know black Americans Or Hispanic Americans or you know whatever other demographics point of that is to say that you can't simply blank it and say oh people are putting less down they must be poor highly wrong in fact I personally have put down three percent on properties before I ended up becoming investment properties there are ways you can do that we talk about a lot a lot on the channel to subscribe for more uh and uh uh and uh they're phenomenal deals that you can make fantastic money in so again putting down a lower down payment is potentially a strategic way to leverage uh and not necessarily a sign that somebody is a low quality borrower uh so uh this uh this particular individual who continues to look at um uh mortgage defaults versus the unemployment rate is sort of the next chart that they give here uh and they make this argument here that while mortgage defaults and uh and a lot of foreclosures are coming you know I find it hard to argue that you could say a lot of foreclosures are coming when frankly real estate prices have been trending up since January I I don't quite see that in fact when I go to a market now if I in fact I was in another foreclosure auction yesterday in Oregon I walked through this foreclosure auction uh and uh the agent and I were looking at each other like you realize it's like point five percent of the market right now are foreclosures and the leading pipeline of foreclosures is still way below trend of the pre-covet era I think a lot of folks forget that they see sort of this this foreclosure moratorium where foreclosures went to zero and then all of a sudden you're seeing foreclosures return and they're like oh my gosh foreclosures are up 200 from last year it's like well duh they were nearly zero you know so it's just uh it's it's again disingenuous data and my goal is always to look at how can we put data and facts together to understand what's really likely to happen uh you know then there's this argument like it's literally stated here but for now mortgage defaults are low because the unemployment rate is low and because people are finding ways to take out other forms of debt like credit cards and personal spending but that's unlikely to last you know I hear that argument all the time and what you could do is you could look at household debt as a percentage of personal disposable income that's actually a really important ratio because you're saying how much debt you have compared to how much money you're bringing in just type it in uh and a personal income right here on chart and I have to like my little screen is covering up how low we where we are right now is relative to where we've been in history when we go back to the 80s people are spending 12 of their disposable income on debt you go back to 2006 you hit a peak of 13 actually 2007 13 right now we're sitting at 9.6 and it's actually started to inflect down in q1 of 2023 which means we're actually below trend of the 2013 to 2020 decline in so yes maybe nominally the amount of debt and credit outstanding is increasing but as a percentage of people's income it's actually decreasing so once again it's very easy to skew people's opinions and impressions of what's actually happening when you're cherry picking data that looks bearish and then suggesting oh well people are putting less money down oh people have higher debt income levels on new mortgages oh imagine that when rates are seven percent oh people are borrowing more yeah but then when you add in the context you're like well less people are borrowing which means more people are likely fixed people are actually spending less out of the income they have on debt and you look at the nonsense of the Foreclosure uh uh this foreclosure crisis would really most of this data is is easily uh put into context and it's a context that doesn't call for a massive real estate crash now don't get me wrong do we have our 15 correction up to 20 in some markets absolutely do I think real estate is Off to the Races and it's time to you know YOLO and over leverage on real estate no I think it's time to be patient and prudent acquire good deals ideally in the winter time frame you know you're sort of October to February time frame is usually a great time to buy good deals because the people who are selling generally need to sell and there's an opportunity to negotiate you generally tend to see wider gaps in the list to sales price ratio that's just sort of a fancy real estate agent way of saying stuff sells for loose and really when we put all the data together it's like you know it's kind of hard to say that there's some sort of massive default wave coming but uh it's certainly not going to stop uh the the bearish video making and again I you know I I I get it like sometimes people like oh but Kevin some of your titles are bearish tight there's there's a difference between the title being bearish and the actual context of the video saying look here's a bearish title here's why people are talking about this bearish information uh and then here's how that is either true or not true and so we can we can evaluate what's actually going on so I think what's most important is the context of the story and sadly these days a lot of social media is just convinced that there's this massive uh correction coming in I think the the true evidence of it and I would be more than happy to say yeah there's a big problem coming if I saw some really good evidence of it the true evidence of it is very very weak every time we we dive into it which is a perfect way to remind you about what Mike Wilson did the great flip-flop appears to have occurred okay before we get into that reminder we have a big coupon expiration for all the various different really popular do it yourself property management or rental Renovations course that one's also very popular that one's uh actually a collaboration between myself and uh property managers with a combined 70 years of experience in Property Management it's really really incredible so uh some phenomenal phenomenal insights in all these various different programs if you have any questions for bundles you can email us at staffmecaven.com and uh we're almost completely booked out with our shadowing experience which is less expensive for existing course members if you're if so if you're an existing course member make sure to check out uh the link down below uh or email us at staffmecaven.com if you had some inquiries on that yeah I see you're very bullish on the market I was just uh I was just wondering in this environment so I'm based in in London UK and I'm thinking of buying a flat uh obviously I'd have to get a mortgage with near six percent interest rates so I was just wondering if it's worth still um just plowing uh you know money into stocks rather than into a down payment and then sort of uh betting on housing going off what do you think okay great question so in in this environment I'm not betting on a very quick and near near massive runaway rally in pricing for Real Estate but I actually think it's a fantastic opportunity over the next couple years to get into real estate and look for really good deals because I'm I'm of this mindset that we're sort of in a pause for Real Estate where you've seen pricing that has come down since May of last year and sort of increased since about January that's at least been the pattern here I would look at that specifically in your area but that's been the pattern in most areas that I've analyzed some areas are already higher than where they were last year but let's say we're somewhat on this trajectory if we started out with uh a this this incredible Bull Run of real estate in 2021 expect that to be a lot more flat and modest over the next few years uh as interest rates come down we'll probably see more sellers to offset some of the benefits of interest rates coming down and that Dynamic will probably take a few more years to play out which personally I think is a great opportunity to be patient but active in the market and so what I mean by that is hey be patient look for a great deal but be ready to strike a lot of people take real estate patients for granted and they they just don't get ready to buy real estate so what they'll do is they'll say oh I'll get pre-approved tomorrow and they basically say that for years and then they never get pre-approved and they never get ready to start buying and then all of a sudden you're five years down you're like ah dang it I should have bought real estate you know five four or three years ago because now all of a sudden prices are jumping again so from a near-term speculation point of view I I don't think we're we're like in the greatest rush to go all in on real estate kind of like what 2021 felt like uh I do though think that buying real estate is almost always going to be a great opportunity for everyone I don't obviously know your personal financial situation but I I don't really care so much about near-term interest rates I'm of the mindset that in the longer term we're more likely to be facing deflation than we are to be facing inflation now uh yesterday we myself and the team we were having a little bit of a discussion about just that where if we go back to 2010-ish we'll see inflation was really running at about 1.7 percent at least to here in the states between 2010 and 2020.
to the point where the Fed was even considering lowering their inflation Target from two percent to 1.75 because they just couldn't get inflation up to two percent and I actually think that at the same time since we were rapidly expanding the money supply it's likely we were actually in a deflationary environment but the regular money printing that we were doing that we were conducting just kept us slightly above uh a deflation at around 1.7 percent point of that is to say that we're likely to Resort back to a lot of quantitative easing QE Infinities in my opinion likely to return and therefore I think that building out assets your control of stocks or real estate really over the next two three years here is is very prudent because in the longer one expect as we're back to QE Infinity the highs that we saw in November of 2021 might end up being laughable compared to what actually ends up coming following hopefully a productivity artificial intelligence and sort of rejeggering Economic and boom for the global economy going forward we'll see we shall see so thanks for that question Martin I think it's a really good question following up on that is actually worth noting what China is up to China for example uh just finally yesterday started talking about uh some more stimulative measures again now short of providing any kind of high detail of what kind of stimulus we would expect effect from China and people are still very skeptical that China is actually going to provide anything China has once again reiterated that they're interested in supporting the real estate market with easing stimulative measures now there's been sort of this Duality going on with China that on one hand if they just send helicopter money they might actually lose power compared to the corporations in China which has maybe put a lid on how many how much in stimulative efforts they'd like to conduct but they are big fans of promoting the real estate market something that has obviously been crushed uh in part due to Reckless policies in China that allowed a substantial over leverage for developers and the selling of properties well before they're completed leading to almost a real estate Ponzi scheme dare say but the good news is in countries uh like uh America or the United States obviously or England and assuming you're in England you might not uh you might not actually have too much fear for real estate and some of the higher quality area
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