저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 2007년 FOMC 성명과 현재 발언의 유사성, NY연준 경기침체 확률 급락을 2007년 사례와 비교하며 경기침체 가능성을 경고. 필리 연은 제조업 지수 2023년 4월 이후 최저, 재고 증가를 근거로 제시. 10년-2년 금리차 스팁닝과 노동시장 지표(구직률 급락)도 경고 신호로 제시. 정부 셧다운과 예산안 교착, 일론 머스크 관련 정치 이슈 언급. 스스로 강세/약세 척도상 약세(bearish)로 제시하며 마진 상환과 이익 실현 권고, 자사 강의·부동산 상품 홍보 병행.
다듬은 글
did we just get closer to a recession and what is the Federal Reserve Eerie warning we need to talk about in this video we are going to cover all of that we're also going to touch on the fact that now Big Lots is going out of business the corporate buyback Blackout Window has begun which means no corporate BuyBacks to prop up lofty share prices and some are accusing Jim Kramer of just ringing the bell at the top of the market with Donald Trump causing the market to crash others say this has everything to do with the government shutdown that starts tonight at midnight in line with the expiration of the trumponomics coupon code sale expiration Tesla's under 420 markets are red pre-market and expected to be red during the day but we'll see what happens NASDAQ lost 51720 yesterday which is a pretty important line and Bitcoin sold down a chunk though it did bounce a little bit after we got those pce numbers this morning some were worried that the Japanese carry trade 2.0 is about to take place maybe another banking crisis people freaking out about the yield curve and the Philly fed gives us some warnings in this video we're going to break down all of this and more so let's just get right into it uh first one of the most scary things that some folks are bringing up rightfully so is the letter from the Federal Reserve the fomc statement from October 31st no not this year but 2007 I highlighted it for you and ignore the blue because that is different that talks about the housing correction but just listen for a moment to everything outside of the blue that's highlighted in yellow and red and I want you to remember that this was 14 years ago before the Great Recession this is what it sounded like the fomc decided today to lower its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points economic growth was solid in the third quarter and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year but recent increases in energy and commodity prices among other factors may put renewed upward pressure on inflation the committee judges that after this action the upside risk to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth which is eerily similar to what we just heard from Jerome Powell that the risk to the labor market and inflation are roughly balanced that inflation has recently ticked up a little bit again causing little bit of concern though hopefully it just ends up being a technical issue or rounding issue and that inflation truly isn't a problem the eeriness of how similar that letter is isn't great it's leading a lot of people to reiterate that remember when the FED cut 50 basis points they did so on the exact same day in September in 2024 as they did in September of 2007 and this is why a lot of people are now looking at the New York Federal Reserve which posts an indication of the probability of a recession in the 12 months ahead and they argue wow it dropped the odds of recession actually plummeted from around 70% to around 33.5% but wait a minute this is the probability of a US recession predicted 12 months ahead in November of 2025 and so what actually happened if look at 2007 is you also saw the odds at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008 plummet that we would be in a recession in 12 months because the market started indicating yeah we're not going to be in a recession in 12 months because that would be say the middle of 2009 will already be through the recession that's happening say within the next 9 months so this is making some folks nervous that actually a fall of this recession probability 12 months out could be an indicator that the reason the recession indicator is falling is because we're about to go through one now that's not great nobody's excited about that and a lot of people were referring to the pork barrel uh Government funding bill that failed yesterday as potentially a reason why markets are uncertain we're going to break that down and go through that but first Mary daily did have have some commentary this morning so let's start with that let's hit what's going on with some of the PC inflation numbers we'll look at some technicals here and we'll make sure we talk about that Government funding bill as well because I know a lot of people are concerned about what's going on there I do want to mention that some folks have asked us hey would it be okay now that the market is starting to correct a little bit to extend that deadline at house hack.com for the offering that we have you know the bond yield and it's a convertible so you get all the upside in the stock and you get a 5% yield some people are like hey man look if the Market's going to turn here I'd like to diversify into maybe the private Market uh so if that's you if you are interested in that maybe we can pull that off we'll see email us at IR like investor relations househ hack.com okay so uh with that Mary da this morning says that policy is in a good place she says that positive sentiment amongst firms is giving her enthusiasm now I personally think that's crazy that sentiment amongst firms after you had a presidential election of a republican which generally always leads to a boost in sentiment would actually lead the Federal Reserve to say oh okay well everybody's so excited maybe we should be a little tighter I think that's kind of dumb because sentiment changes very very rapidly uh and I don't think that's really a way to lead the Federal Reserve uh especially since you know when the Federal Reserve was excited two days ago you know we were at greedy levels in the stock market uh and and all of a sudden Market momentum I mean we were almost at extreme greed levels in terms of Market momentum and all of a sudden when you look at the CNN greed and fear index oh wow look we're at extreme fear see sentiment changes at the drop of a hat I don't know that our Federal Reserve should really be guiding their policy decisions on B like business sentiment but then again uh they've lost a lot of credibility during this last cycle and it seems like they're just continuing to lose even more anyway inventory building up is causing a reason to be cautious says Mary daily this actually aligns with what the Philadelphia fed warned a little bit uh this report actually came out yesterday very very few people talked about it and I wanted to bring up some of the details from the Philly Fed so this is what the Philly manufacturing uh indicator read it indicated the lowest level of manufacturing since April of 2023 okay not going back too terribly far the index for new orders and shipments both declined and turned negative all right that's not great and the employment index EDG down but more than 70% of firms reported no change in employment levels in this month just 177% reported increases that actually didn't sound too horrible uh if it stays that way but it's worth noting this current activity bar doesn't look great just because we're getting back to the lows that we saw at early 2023 and I'm worried that potentially those could continue if we end up seeing this buildup in inventory remember the whole point of what Mary Daly here is saying is that if inventory builds up then manufacturing slows even more when manufacturing slows even more because inventory builds up that's when you truly start seeing more layoffs and unemployment gets hit and when unemployment gets hit that's when consumer spending plummets so the order in which a recession takes hold generally starts uh with a buildup of inventory then the layoffs then the spending goes down then the unemployment claims Skyrocket then the unemployment rate goes up right this is why some of those latter things are Laing indicators but then again there was some hope because this morning we did get pce numbers which came in a smidge lower than expected personally I think we're not facing an issue of inflation in the cycle we're facing an issue of deflation but not everybody agrees with me on this I think most of the categories that are left in terms of inflation because I I go through every single inflation report every single time in detail the categories that are left of inflation are really super lagging I think most companies have really lost their PP and you don't want to lose your PP when you're a business you need pricing power otherwise you're screwed so I I'm very disappointed in over the last year seeing how much pricing power has just absolutely been destroyed at companies and so it it has made me more nervous uh than typical anyway uh pce did come in a little bit lower than expected this morning PC and core PC both coming in at .1% month over month versus the0 2 expected year-over-year numbers did Miss by 0.1% as well personal income missed by 0.1% and personal spending matched this did help boost Bitcoin by about $1,500 right when that number came out but from a trading point of view I'm still a little bit nervous because take a look at this yesterday in my courses I sent this post you could see here yesterday at 7:41 a.m.
this is an example of the kind of trade alerts that I sent but actually this is more of a trend alert because I send Trend alerts and trade alerts like if I actually actually execute a trade then I'll be like hey look I bought this option uh whereas this is a trend alert uh setting up for a trade so I wrote this QQQ at decision Point 5720 was my warning this morning when the qes were at $520 bouncing here is critical otherwise I worry we may or we could start a few days of a selloff losing this line may put options uh desirable for the third week uh may may make I guess I type with that but anyway you get the idea may make put options desirable for the third week of January so basically buying put options a month out for some of the volatility that we're about to potentially experience uh and what you'll find is if you actually line this up with the line that I have over here that 51720 when we lost the line here after you know failing to break break out twice on it with what looked like a double bottom we really just continued to lose and lose and lose that level which is not great and this is leading some people to say Hey Kevin thanks for having a launch sale for the trumponomics course which comes with all of these stock alerts so if you want those alerts where all of a sudden you get a little ping on your phone oh Kevin sees a trend or Kevin has a trade idea make sure to join trumponomics today you can grab it by going to meetkevin.com comes with some critical Tax Strategies you could still implement this year and next year obviously under Trump uh as well as insights into stock growth sectors real estate analysis job and income strategies negotiating strategies sales strategies everything related to Trump and making money in the economy even if you don't like Trump now with that a lot of folks are also asking me Kevin what about the carry trade well it's worth noting that the Japanese Yen is sitting at about the same devalued level as it was around July 10th remember the Japanese carry trade blew up over here because all of a sudden the Japanese Yen had lost so much money that people had to cover uh their uh their margin loans and their loans on US Stocks basically uh and that led to some Panic selling now that did end up leading the yel yen to fall afterwards but if you notice July 10th was our summer stock market Peak we were at 161 Yen per dollar if you look at where we are now we're at 156 pretty dang close to the same levels we were at that peak in the summer now Tom Lee is saying hey man just back up the truck and buy the dip and maybe that's the right strategy after all uh AT&T is mandating a 5-day return to work uh that is return to office in January which kind of follows what Amazon is doing a lot of people think this is just a quiet way of trying to fire people who can't go to the hubs AT&T has see AT&T for example says all 18,000 of you must go to the hubs that we have in Dallas Atlanta La Seattle St Louis Middleton or Bedminster New Jersey well what happens if you don't live close to there you'd have to potentially move well moving and trying to get a new home or even a new rental in this sort of e economic time or around the holidays might be a little tough anyway uh Bond yelds are up roughly 100 basis points since the Federal Reserve cut 100 basis points and this adds a lot of restrictiveness to the economy just as the corporate Blackout Window is happening Big Lot is going out of business and a lot of people are angry that Elon Musk should now be called president musk because he has so much control over Donald Trump almost like a puppet master others say no he was just trying to kill a wasteful bill I broke down what was inside of the bill in another video so I won't break that down again now just look on the meet Kevin Channel and you'll see exactly what's in there in fact the title of the video is Elon and vi just killed a wasteful Congressional spending Bill see that Ty that in with me Kevin with that said the replacement a shorter Bill substantially shorter bill in fact you could see a picture of it here uh looks like it should be a whole lot easier to pass after all this 1547 page bill was destined to pass and this one was destined to fail oh wait that's the opposite of what it should be yeah this smaller or shorter Bill failed miserably uh in fact fact 38 Republicans voted against it including people like Tom Massie who keep posting on X about how great Elon Musk is and how all of his ideas are wonderful yet he also contributed to voting against that shorter bill that shorter Bill did call for extending the debt ceiling by two years to sort of open the door to what Donald Trump could do with the budget but it wasn't convincing enough to get uh 38 Republicans on board with it and you only got two Democrats to vote for it and since Republicans don't have control of all Chambers yet until the beginning of next year this is not only potentially a preview of the gridlock of what's to come but it's also a sign that even if you have control of all houses you might not convince all Republicans the government shutdown deadline is tonight at midnight and there are arguments being made right now by people like Bernie Sanders and AOC that uh Elon mosque is a billionaire who's trying to rob people of Defense contract money your money for Pediatric care research and it is true there was a yes give kids a chance Bill added in as a rider to the continuing resolution to keep the government funded it's a smaller bill as part of a larger Bill package now a lot of people including Tom Massie and V and musk say hey why don't we just vote on these bills individually like why do we keep doing these giant package deals why can't we just do them a little bit at a time individually to keep the government funded H separately from the debt ceiling separately from funding the government's uh defense contracts to cancer research like we can pass these separately and there's a reason for that see it's worth noting that Congress has operated like this pretty much forever Congress is a two-party system and it rarely passes legislation compared to really other forms of government so when you look at other governments they pass a lot more legislation than we do this makes each package like one big package really critical for negotiating writers onto them it's kind of like this hey man I'm a republican I'll vote for your package if uh you know you let me hook this little seven page bill in here because the people donating to get me reelected wrote it for me I don't really know what's in it I just want to kind of slap it in you mind if I do that and so all of a sudden what happens is you basically take a must pass Bill let's call this pink newspaper here the must pass Bill and you take a must pass Bill like funding the government and then somebody comes along and says hey man I need the New York Post in here and then somebody else and then I'll vote for the whole thing all right cool vote secured hey man what are you going to need to vote for this well man I'm gonna need me a slice of the LA Times okay what are you going to need I don't know man I didn't read it but I need all this okay will you vote for it then yep all right who's ready to vote it's kind of the way it works and I'm not saying it's right it's just one of the reasons this happens is because each individual bill could get vetoed by a president and Congress doesn't really want to give a president that much power back in the day like in 1996 Bill Clinton used the line item veto to kill pork barrel spending line by line like he'd literally go through and go nope nope he did that like 82 times in budget bills and then that got ruled unconstitutional in 1998 it gave the president too much power so if each portion of a budget was separated or each little bill was separated you'd probably die in committee you'd probably get killed by filibusters or you would just get individually vetoed by a president that's like nah we don't need funding for cancer research for kids not specifically saying that that particular one wouldn't make it I'm just saying that's how it could work and this is why a lot of people are saying well let the chaos begin of nothing getting done because even though you're going to get Doge bragging about how hey look how we simplified the new bill versus the old Bill the new the old Bill had a chance the new Bill had basically no chance it was Dead on Arrival so some people are saying that musk and Viv are going to be great at keeping the government shut down other people say hey let it get shut down the government is so dysfunctional they need to have a cleansing and if that means you need to Chaos Theory it you know destroy some of it to get it all working again then so be it let me know what side you're on in the comments down below at this point it's also worth noting that the uh yield curve between the 10 and two is steepening and this is usually how you get onto your path to uh a recession generally when the yield curve spikes you have red markets and so far we've spiked from about four basis points uninverted to about 24 basis points uninverted now that's somewhat arrested today is yields are catching up a bit today but usually when this spikes again to about 50 to 90 you start the recession that's just historically what has happened now what else do we want to pay attention to well there are indeed warning signs in the labor market that unfortunately a lot of people just don't want to pay attention to Jerome Powell did give us a heads up of some of these and so it's worth just taking a peek at kind of what these look like here you go the job finding rate has collapsed over the last 2 months you could see the collapse in the job finding rate over here on the right it's not ideal and it looks eerily similar to what we saw in 2001 during Co and in 20072 2008 in addition the employment deposit population rate is falling which is usually a characteristic only seen during recessions though you did have a little bit of a nudge nudge over here in 1995 which was associated with a soft Landing giving Bulls some hope uh then uh let's see here what else we we talked about the New York recession odds we talked about some of the data yesterday remember this talk about continuing claims and initial claims these are not incredibly useful and then the leading index I think is kind of funny because the leading economic index came in and it beat expectations yesterday but it actually includes stock prices and stock prices have been pretty euphoric moving into that so I'm not entirely sure that the leading index which uses the stock market could be much of a leading index for a potential stock market correction now with all of that said you know me at this point I'm pretty low on the bull bear scale I'm somewhere around a 2.
to on the the bareable scale I should call it which means I'm pretty bearish what does that mean I'm a big fan of paying off margin take profits I'd rather see you pay 30% in profits than to get the scars that I've gotten in my career I have tried to avoid paying 30% in capital gains taxes you know 20 plus 10% California maybe it's only 20 for you because you're not in comifornia but anyway I've have tried avoiding those taxes by Diamond handing only to go on to lose 70% instead of 30% to taxes so consider that I also think I also think that diversifying is a really good idea if you want more insights from me obviously you can always join us nd that way I can send you my alerts as well there is a sale ending tonight when the government's supposed to shut down at 11:59 p.m.
calling it The launch sale because we just launched the lectures so you could be a part of it right away but as far as you and protecting yourself I always like to say get out of margin get out of bad debt make sure you secure your income because whether or not we go through a recession it is a logical idea to diversify to minimize debt I personally think one of the great ways you could do that and email us if if if you want because right now we you know this this expired but we might reopen it if we get a bunch of people emailing us saying look Kevin if you're going to pay me 5% and I get all the upside in house hack stock uh you know until conversion why why would I not do this consider checking this out go to house act.com you could learn about it you could learn about my uh private real estate uh business business uh the multifamilies the single families uh the perks that we have for investing before and after photos of properties whatever you're welcome to see all of that over at house hack.com also uh the deadline to uh send your money for robo hack you really had to fund by yesterday to participate if you have some issue and your money's on the way today just email us at invest at roboh hack. thank you so very much for being here I wish you all the best
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