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사이버트럭 공개와 테슬라 주가 전망을 다룸. 사이버트럭 대당 마진 약 15%, 6만대 출하 시 EPS 약 6% 증가, 2026년 50만대 가정 시 주당 약 2.5달러(EPS 약 32%) 증가 가능성 제시. 단기는 Q4 세액공제 이벤트, 출시 논란 등으로 3~6개월 제한적 성장 전망하며 베어리시. 다만 장기 성장 잠재력과 과거 21일 랠리 사이클을 언급, 포지션은 유지 중.
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Hello everyone, this is Meet Kevin. Cybertruck has been officially unveiled. In this video, we'll not only go over the details of the Cybertruck release, but we'll also talk about the target price for TSLA stock , both in the short and long term, especially after the Cybertruck is released. The main question that worries many: does the Cybertruck really change anything in the potential value of Tesla shares?
We'll talk about that, but first, let's understand what exactly Tesla and Elon announced. Cybertruck. We already knew it was coming, but did you know that Tesla cars are now labeled and lined up as S-E-X-Y on their website? Look at this. You have the Model S, 3, X, and Y. The 3 is used obviously because Ford has the Model E or Mach-E version and the corresponding brand.
Many are suggesting that we might actually get "sexy" cars from Tesla. As you can see, we just released the letter C. Some say that a Cyberquad may be released, and in the future, a real version of the quad bike. Maybe we'll get a Roadster later, and of course a semi-truck, deliveries of which have already begun.
So, technically, all we need is this ATV and the Roadster to complete the entire line of " sexy" cars, which would be pretty cool. And now the prices. The estimated price of the top model is $99,000, which is quite a lot. But what do you get for $99,000? Well, you get delivery in 2024, hopefully . 320 miles of range, 0-60 mph in 2.6 seconds, and 845 horsepower.
Now we're going to compare it to the Ford Raptor, so fasten your seatbelts. One thing that is exciting and that many people are talking about is actually right here. That's a potential range of 440 miles, which can be obtained with an optional range extender. You will notice that this is about 1/3 more than the range of the existing battery.
What's surprising is that the existing battery, which provides about 320 miles, weighs, to simplify the calculations , at least 1,000 pounds. Typically, a Tesla 70 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery weighs 1,000 pounds. So, let's take 1000 pounds for simplicity. If you're going to get an extra 25% range, whether you charge it from the front or the rear— of course, the front would be faster, but the power gain is the same .
You're still counting on about 1/4 of an extra battery. But if it weighs 1,000 pounds, that means you'll have to lift 250 pounds into the bed of that truck, which is perfectly acceptable. You could make something with two or four handles so that two people or one strong man could do it. This is great.
Or maybe even a strong woman can do it. I don't know. But the point is, it seems like it would be a bit of a burden to take out and put in a 250-pound object every time. So I wonder how easy they will make the process of removing and installing it back. Some suggest that you just throw it in the back of the car, essentially.
Well, it would have to be fixed in the body, and there would be some kind of connector to connect, that's how you would get this increase in range . Now, aside from the practicality of how to get this battery out, because I expect it to be heavy, it's nice that 99% of the time you don't actually need all that extra power.
You could just remove this block . I also suspect that this range extender will be very beneficial to this car's towing capabilities, as even if it can tow, we assume that electric cars will use a bit more energy in towing mode, given the significantly higher weight. I wouldn't be surprised if the car's range while towing is closer to 200 miles, which, honestly , is still pretty good if you're hauling a boat, jet skis, or something else.
As you can see, they claim it can tow 11,000 pounds, it seats five, they got rid of that front bench seat, the center monitor didn't quite coordinate with the airbags, and here we have 20-inch wheels. This is the most expensive top model, which you can pre- order now for $250. You have a car worth about $79,000 right here.
You get a little more range in the all-wheel drive version, but you don't get the same power. You go from 2.5 seconds with acceleration deduction, which is about the same as the Model X Plaid. Here it is 2.6. Model X, sorry, has 2.5. Both indicators exclude overclocking. Additionally, the 1.9 figure in the Model S Plaid also takes into account the acceleration deduction .
So add about 0.2 seconds here. This means that the Cybertruck, the most expensive versions, probably give you about 2.8 seconds from 0 to 60, while this version does 4.1 seconds, which is about $20,000 cheaper. So , to clarify, this is 2.6 for the Cybertruck with a little asterisk, which means the acceleration time is deducted, and here, at 4.1, we don't have that asterisk about the deduction.
Keep in mind that this version has almost 500 miles of range with the range extender. Very impressive. Or 340 miles of range otherwise . You can also notice that it weighs over 6,000 pounds, which is great for those business owners looking for accelerated depreciation. The same goes for almost all versions here.
By the way, accelerated depreciation works when you have a vehicle weighing over 6,000 pounds , if it can carry passengers , and of course, check with your accountant, this is not tax advice for you, and these rules are constantly changing. They cancel and then come back. This is madness. So, everything is constantly changing.
But the Section 179 tax break was that if a vehicle weighing over 6,000 pounds is used for business, you get accelerated depreciation on it. If it's a Sprinter van, for example, where there's only cargo behind you , you can literally write off 100% of the cost of the vehicle. But if it has the ability to seat passengers behind you, you're typically limited to bonus depreciation of an extra $25,000 up front, and then straight-line depreciation of the rest, which is not bad, because if you think about it, if you buy a car for $100,000 and then depreciate the rest of the cost over, for easy calculation, 7.5 years, you're depreciating $ 10,000 per year plus $ 25,000 up front, which means your first-year deduction is about $35,000.
That's not bad, and it's a very quick calculation. Of course, talk to your accountant about this , but this is how the Section 179 deduction would work, in case you were wondering. As for the lowest starting price, you're looking at around $60,900, about $1,000 more than I would have guessed for this type of car, an entry-level car.
This is your car with a 250 mile range, 6.5 seconds from 0 to 60. This is a rear-wheel drive model. We don't even have a weight specification for this model, probably because they're not even focused on producing this car at the moment. So, it will take some time, which is quite logical, because when a company scales up car production, remember about some kind of economies of scale: manufacturing the first car is very expensive, the hundredth is already cheaper, the thousandth is even cheaper, and then, somewhere between a thousand and 500,000 units, the cost is about the same.
But then you have to build a new plant, and that becomes expensive again. This is just an example of economies of scale, the simplest explanation possible. The point is that it would be logical , given the high initial costs, to start by supplying the most expensive car, especially since it would be exclusive, and those who pay a hundred thousand dollars would attract attention by owning such a car.
I think one of the big advantages of this car will be marketing. I think this will become a marketing tool for electricians, real estate agents, plumbers, local business owners, advertising and packaging companies . People will do some pretty cool things with it because it's an eye-catcher. Many people consider this car ugly.
Many people simply adore her. However, that doesn't matter. Everyone is looking at her. Tesla also plans to introduce certain accessories, although they regularly promise to release them and then put them in a long drawer. So I wouldn't have high hopes for some kind of roof-mounted bar. This is an additional option.
This tourist tent, which you can use, is of course also additional. Another thing that worries me about the camper is that I don't think the back window can be opened, which means you probably won't be able to sleep in the back of the pickup with the tent using the interior heating, because I don't think there's a way to combine the two.
I could be wrong. If this window opened, it would be great, because then you could seal the tent, turn on the heater in the car, and heat the tent as well. I'm not sure it's really functional, and as you can see, there are five seats here. And about this spare tire thing, it's very Tesla-esque: they don't actually add spare tires or wheels , like emergency wheels.
So they say, "Hey, well, you can just use your body if you really want to." The body is 6 feet by 4 feet, which is not enough space for a sheet of drywall. You can lower the side, but if you do, you will of course have to tie down the cargo so it doesn't slide back out . So, I mean, it's a pretty standard 6-by-4 body size, so it's not a surprise.
Many people were apparently hoping for a full 4 by 8 size so they could put down a whole sheet of drywall or plywood. The next thing we have, well, it's pretty typical. It's pretty similar to what you get in other cars. Video screens front and rear, great audio throughout the cabin. The sound is generally very good.
And you still don't hear much car noise since it's an electric car. But what's interesting is that there's a 240-volt outlet and two standard 120-volt outlets. This is something Ford already does with its pickup trucks, and it just demonstrates the idea that you can, you know, use your power tools in the back of the truck when you're on a site and there's, let's say, no electricity.
Now we should touch on this topic a little. So, in terms of home backup power, it's worth noting that the 11.5kWh battery in your Cybertruck won't actually work unless you already have a Powerwall. The problem is that the Powerwall costs about $8,400 at the time of this writing. So if you have a Powerwall and Tesla now makes their own inverters, they stopped using SolarEdge, then the Powerwall will convert that energy from the battery's DC current into something your home can use.
So if you don't have a Powerwall, which often requires replacing the house's electrical panel, you'll likely need to purchase additional hardware, including not just a wall connector, which is fine, but you'll also need a Tesla Gateway, and possibly some type of backup switch. Well, the backup switch is probably not the most expensive part .
I assume the Gateway will be the more expensive part. We don't have a specific price for it as a stand-alone device yet. Well, this equipment, as it says here, will be sold separately. So, this is still in question. But I wouldn't expect to just plug the car into the house and say, "Oh, I have a backup battery." Not so fast.
This will work if you have a Powerwall, which is actually pretty cool because it's almost like having another Powerwall. So I think it's just great. And that's pretty brilliant as a Tesla investor, because I think, "Wow, this is going to motivate people to buy the Powerwall." And Powerwall, you know, has high margins.
People don't understand that Tesla is also an energy company, and the amount of money you can make from the Powerwall is phenomenal. So this picture is a little misleading, because it just seems to say, "Oh, look, you can power your home." It just shows a woman approaching a wall charger, but there's no Powerwall actually shown in this section , although yes, it's probably some kind of specially prepared house.
But I mean, it looks cool. It's so cyberpunk and apocalyptic, which is what Elon is going for here. But you'll need a Powerwall or the same gateway for this to work at all. However, you could charge other cars with it , which is pretty cool, especially if you get the extended range model , you'll be that friend everyone calls when their cars run out of power.
Although, frankly , I don't know how often this happens now that the Supercharging network is so widespread, but it does happen. If you want to increase the range of your Tesla, I strongly recommend turning off the security mode. This thing sucks battery life horribly . It will completely plant your charge.
It's just not worth keeping it on. For example, I'll leave it somewhere at 80 miles, and overnight with the security on it will drop to 40. If I turn the security off it will only drop to 78. So it's not that important to me. I have insurance for a reason. Plus, insurance from Tesla. But anyway, here's a Ford F-150 Raptor for comparison, this car goes to 60 mph in 3.6 seconds, as you can see right here.
To get 702 horsepower, you'll have to buy an extended V8 engine. This is already starting to get very expensive. In fact, if you go to Ford's website and add a turbocharged V8 engine , it will cost you $31,000. No, it's not for the entire car. This is an option you can add to your car. This is the transition from V6 to V8.
Yes, and then the total cost of this Ford Raptor is actually around $110,000. About $10,000 more than the Cybertruck. So keep in mind, this one has 705 horsepower. The power of the most expensive Tesla is 845 hp. priced at 10,000 less and with a faster 0-60 mph acceleration. In fact, they did a great job showing the production Porsche 911, accelerating to 60 in 3.9 seconds.
Take a look at this clip and pay attention to what they did to the Cybertruck, because at the finish line it doesn't look much faster. But look what's behind it . This includes Tesla shares. The most important thing for this company is this . We need to reduce inflation, or achieve price stabilization, and ideally, their decline, perhaps even to the point of deflation.
This would be great for Tesla because it would not only allow rates to drop , reducing the cost of financing a car, but it would also bring back some of the great profits Tesla made during low interest rates. So the fact that we're seeing a decline in PCE, consumer spending index inflation, on an annualized basis, and the fact that over the last 6 months that decline has become even more pronounced.
See that the blue line is lower than the orange line? This shows inflation over the past 6 months, extrapolated to a year, instead of just looking at annual figures. So, you see that disinflation has intensified over the past six months . And if you look at the last 3 months, they roughly coincide with the indicators for 6 months, although there was some volatility.
Here are some of my thoughts on what the Cybertruck could mean. With 60,000 shipments at $100,000 each, I expect about 15% margin; after issuing 60,000 units, we will only see about a 6% increase in earnings per share, and therefore potentially in share price. So the impact is not that great. You won't see a significant impact from the Cybertruck until production reaches larger scale, which will happen sometime in 2026.
If we can reach 500,000 Cybertrucks in 2026, because Elon's goal was 250,000 by 2025, maybe by the end of 2025. If we can increase production to 500 thousand, I am more conservative for 2026, assuming more optimism; or for the 25th I am more conservative, and for the 26th I am more optimistic; I think the Cybertruck could bring the company about $2.50 per share annually, which would increase EPS by about 32%.
So, there is real growth potential if this car doesn't fail. And this is where we have certain short-term risks. I suspect that in the short term there will be a lot of videos where people criticize the Cybertruck. I think we're in for a very difficult fourth quarter, where people will be incentivized not to buy a Tesla before January 1st because the $7,500 tax credit will be available immediately, not when you file your return.
So it's better to rent a car on January 1st. Rates may be starting to come down a bit, but economic uncertainty is still so great that we can't be 100% sure. Additionally, any difficulties with scaling production or drama surrounding the first Cybertruck deliveries will all be in the news over the next 3–6 months .
So, it is likely that the stock will still be somewhat limited in growth over the next 3–6 months. However, it is quite possible that when it becomes absolutely clear: "It's time to buy these stocks." It is possible that by then the shares will already be significantly more expensive as other people will start pricing it in advance.
So, uh, that's my view on the short term; again , he is bearish. But I don't want to sell my position because I'm worried: if I sell it just to avoid losses for the next 3-6 months, what if I don't have a chance to buy again later? Because suddenly the company will exceed the delivery plan for the quarter or something like that, or some report will come out, and the shares will rise by 10–30% in a matter of days.
This has happened before. Tesla usually has cycles like this. We call them the 21-day Tesla rally cycle. And usually when these rallies start, everyone says, “Oh, okay. "Well , I'll just wait until they fall back." And then they just do it like that. And then, you know, they kind of exhale, but they don't fall to the very bottom.
So, historically and in my own experience, I've seen Tesla do exactly that. So sometimes when it moves, it moves fast, but other times—yes, buckle up, in the short term, but in the long term. This is quite fascinating. So , if you like that, check out meetkevin.com, they have courses on wealth accumulation.
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Mikey is at Giga Texas right now, going to look at that Cybertruck. . Time for disclaimer. investment . I personally run this particular stock we talked about, potentially including the ones in this video. Yes, I read that, but I already said we own it. However, I have no relationship with the issuer, do not act as a market maker, and do not have any hedges or short positions.
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