Peter Lynch's Stock Picking Checklist; One Up On Wall Street

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결론: 영상은 피터 린치의 『One Up on Wall Street』 15장 최종 체크리스트를 소개하며 종목 선별 원칙을 정리하는 내용이며, 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다. [핵심 주장 - 재무·밸류에이션 체크] PER이 해당 기업과 동종업계 대비 높은지 낮은지 확인해야 한다. 기관 보유 비율은 낮을수록 좋다고 본다. 내부자 매수와 자사주 매입은 긍정적 신호로 본다. 이익 성장 이력과 이익의 일관성(또는 들쭉날쭉함)을 본다. 부채비율 등 재무 건전성을 평가한다. 현금 포지션이 시가총액 대비 얼마인지, 청산 가치가 바닥(floor) 역할을 하는지 본다. [핵심 주장 - 기업 유형 분류] 기업을 저성장주, 우량주, 경기순환주, 고성장주, 턴어라운드, 자산주로 분류하고 기대 수익을 다르게 봐야 한다. 대형주는 완만하게, 소형주는 크게 움직이는 경향이 있다. 연 50~100% 성장률은 오래 지속되기 어렵다고 경계한다. 핫한 산업의 핫한 종목은 피하고, 과도한 다각화에 대해서는 의심한다. [핵심 주장 - 투자 태도] 자신이 이해하는 영역(능력 범위)에서 투자하라는 워런 버핏식 조언을 강조한다. 단순하고 평범해 보이며 월가의 관심을 받지 않는 기업이 이상적이라고 본다. 연 20~25% 수준의 중속 성장 기업과 비성장 산업이 적합하다고 본다. 주식 팁은 발신자와 분리해 평가하고, 전문 분야 밖의 팁은 신뢰하지 말라고 조언한다. 경영진의 발표력이 아니라 실질적 사업 전망을 기준으로 삼는다. [핵심 주장 - 실행 원칙] 주당 장부가치만으로 매수하는 것은 위험하며 내재가치와 미래 전망을 봐야 한다. 확신이 없으면 관심종목 리스트(watch list)에 넣고 나중에 재검토한다. 주 1시간 이상 투자 리서치에 투자하고, 새 종목 선택은 냉장고 구매만큼 신중히 하라고 권한다. [언급 종목] 개별 종목(포드 등)은 예시로만 언급되며 매수·매도 방향 제시는 없다. [리스크/조건] 턴어라운드 투자는 큰 수익 가능성이 있으나 재무 상태와 부채 수준을 반드시 확인해야 한다. [출연자 전망] 특정 시장 전망 발언 없음. 피터 린치 방식의 장기 투자 원칙 소개에 그침.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. everyone my name is Robin spaz yeah interviews with Canada's top investors so if you know me if you've followed me through my newsletter which you subscribe to you for free and Robin specially calm if you've read my books market masters capital compounders which you can get for free for me you'll know that you know I've I've always been a follower of Peter Lynch and one of my favorite investment books of all time is the one that Peter Lynch wrote it's called one up on Wall Street and I have the book here I'm holding it now I have lent this book out to so many of my friends who asked me Robin like what's the one book that that change you that that made you a better investor the investor yard today I always say one up of Wall Street I lend it to them and they just love it it's my favorite book there's tons of dog ears in here and you can tell this this book is definitely aging but there's one really really great chapter in this book and one that I read and reread every year and one up on Wall Street and it's it's chapter I've seen your chapter 15 the final checklist it's on page 227 of one up on Wall Street and I'm holding it in front of me now I'm not going to go over the entire chapter here but I'm gonna read to you some of the key points that Peter Lynch says on how to be a good investor and how to invite in the rock invest in the right stocks and how to be successful in the stock market so here he says about stocks in general so the p/e ratio is at a high or low for this particular company and for similar companies in the same industry the percentage of institutional ownership the lower the better he says whether insiders are buying and whether the company itself is buying back its own shares both are positive signs the record of earnings growth to date and whether the earnings are sporadic or consistent the only category where earnings may not be important is in the asset play section whether the company has a strong balance sheets or a weak balance sheets debt to equity ratio is a key metric here and how it's rated for financial strength then he goes on to say the cash position with 16 dollars in net cash I know Ford is unlikely to below $16 per share that's the floor on the stocky and he wrote this years ago that was example he gave then he goes on on page page 231 of one Apple Wall Street to explain more and he says here's some more pointers from this section understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock it is really going up doesn't count by putting your stocks in the categories they'll have a better idea of what to expect from them and he talks about the main categories here being slow growers stalwarts cyclical x' fast growers turnarounds and a set place and then he says big companies have small moves small companies have big moves consider the size of a company if you expect it to profit from a specific product look for small companies that are already profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated the suspicious of companies with growth rates of 50 to 100 percent a year because that growth probably won't last forever obviously avoid hot stocks in hot industries distrust diversifications which originally turned out to be diversification x' longshots almost never pay off it's better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company's plans are working out people get incredibly valuable fundamental information from the jobs that may not reach the professionals for months or even years separate all stock tips from the tipper even if the tipper is very smart very rich and has his or her last tip went up some stock tips especially from an expert in the field may turn out to be quite valuable however people in the paper industry normally give out tips on drug stocks and people in the health care field never run out of tips on the coming takeovers in the paper industry so that just goes to show like Warren Buffett says stick to your circle of competence and invest in what you know invest in simple companies that appear dull mundane out of favor and have a haven't caught the fancy of Wall Street moderately fast growers so 20 to 25 percent on an annual basis and non growth industries are ideal investments look for companies with when purchasing depress stocks and troubled companies Sego the ones with superior financial positions and avoid the ones with loads of bank debt companies that have no debt can't go bankrupt managerial ability can be very important but it's quite difficult to assess management base your purchases and the company's prospects not in the president's resume or speaking ability a lot of money can't can be made when a troubled company turns around Apple is an example that in the early 2000s it turned around when it shifted to the mobile s-curve of innovation investing in new products like the iPod iPhone and their iPad a lot of money can be made when a troubled company turns around already said that carefully consider the price to earnings ratio if the stock is grossly overpriced even if everything else goes right you won't make any money find a story line to follow as a way of monitoring a company's progress look for companies that consistently buy back their own shares study the dividend record of a company over the years and also house earnings have fared in past recessions look for companies with little or no institutional ownership all else being equal favorite companies in which management has a significant personal investment over companies run by people that benefit only from their salaries insider buying is a positive sign especially when several individuals are buying it once devote at least an hour a week to Investment Research adding up your dividends and figuring out your gains and losses doesn't count be patient now I'm watched stock never boils buying stocks based on stated book value alone is dangerous and illusory it's real value that counts intrinsic value and I would out add growth and value and projected future prospects of that company when in doubt tuning later so what Peter Lynch is saying here is I always keep a watch list and maybe you'll invest in the stock later when you do some more research and lastly his point here is invest at least as much time and effort and choosing a new stock as you wouldn't choosing a new refrigerator and Peter Lynch is just such a great guy and I think he was a fabulous investor because he really stuck to what you know he was great in following trends I think he was one of the first investors to buy into talk about a lot of these consumer companies that we know today and he is just such an easy read so this was his investment checklist from one up on Wall Street I highly recommend the Reid thanks guys happy investing and talk soon