저자: Develomong · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 증시 급락 원인을 제조업 PMI 부진(48, 예상 49.5)으로 분석하고, 장악형 음봉 등 기술적 신호로 단기 하락 가능성을 언급. 9월 전후 추가 조정 가능성을 열어두되 장기적으로 자산 가격은 상승한다는 관점. 잭슨홀 연설 후 25bp 점진적 인하 기대, 실망성 하락 시 매수 기회로 제시. 마지막에 유료 멤버십 가입을 유도.
다듬은 글
. Today, I am sharing a subscriber comment. Develomong left a comment saying, "You are changing my life. I am getting closer to quitting this dog-like job soon." Personally, no matter how awful a job is, you need a stable monthly income to keep your mindset from collapsing. Therefore, I hope you can grow your assets and go to work without stress, even if it is a dog-like job.
I will start by revealing my accounts today. My US zip investment account dropped 10 million won in just one day and fell back below a 100% return. Currently, due to yesterday's significant drop, it has fallen to a 99% return and a profit of 170 million won. The domestic account has also dropped to a 135% return and a profit of 8 million won.
The profit on the second account has also fallen below 10 million won. With exchange rate gains and Bitcoin Casino coming down, the total profit is currently around 220 million won. Now, there is quite a bit of talk about yesterday's decline. The possibility of a 50bp rate cut has decreased somewhat, while the possibility of a 205bp rate cut has increased.
In today's Jackson Powell speech, gradual There is some opinion that the decline was priced in due to concerns that the likelihood of a 25bp increase would rise following comments on interest rate hikes. There is also a view that the drop was simply due to profit-taking, as the market had risen too rapidly during the rebound.
To share my personal thoughts on yesterday's decline, the jobless claims data was released. Fortunately, the number of new jobless claims matched expectations exactly, and consecutive jobless claims fell slightly below forecasts, which I believe somewhat alleviated concerns about a rapid cooling of the job market.
That is why the market was able to start with gains early yesterday. However, the reason it rolled back all of that momentum and continued to slide downwards is that, while it is true that some profit-taking occurred after the significant rise, I personally believe the primary cause of yesterday's decline was the release of the SMP (System Marginal Price) PMI.
While the composite and service PMI estimates were raised, the problem lies with the manufacturing sector, represented by the orange line. Manufacturing came out lower than the forecast of 49.5 and was reported at 48, lower than the previous announcement. Manufacturing is known to drive the economic cycle.
This indicates that the market is now entering a more recessionary phase than expected and even more so than before. It means it has dropped. This leads to concerns about an economic recession, along with employment worries regarding the cooling of manufacturing hiring. Consequently, long bearish engulfing candles formed on both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, completely swallowing up the bullish candle from the day before yesterday.
In particular, the S&P 500 formed a long bearish engulfing candle just as it was on the verge of reaching a new high following a rebound. Now, even though I advised against buying at the peak a month ago, the majority of retail investors still fill their positions at those highs or shoulders. However, as the saying goes, where there is a rise, there is a fall; eventually, a downward dip appears.
I mentioned " dividend buying" somewhere around the low two weeks ago; looking back now, in that opportunity where it was clearly a losing trade, the majority of retail investors who bought at the peak are either panic selling or unable to press the buy button. Even though they could have bought at a price about 10% cheaper, they panic due to short-term account losses or panic sell, becoming the anti-dip trading strategy.
Precisely at that low point These are the comments that were posted. That is why I have always said that only one in a thousand people will succeed, and that even most of you watching this video are highly likely to fail. That is why I have been telling you that in order to succeed somehow, you must study through my videos every day and have conviction within yourself.
Ultimately, in this phase, the majority drop out, while a tiny minority buys assets cheaply, and this repeats in the stock market. And for that tiny minority—due to drinking—when the market rises again, they enjoy the account gains and watch. As they waited, a bearish engulfing candle was spotted again, and a slight possibility arose that another opportunity might come.
Now, let's look into the bearish engulfing candle. A bearish engulfing candle is a long bearish candle that completely devours the previous day's bullish candle. If this candle appears, we can confirm by looking at the chart that the probability of a short-term decline increases. Of course, it is not 100%, but it means the probability is higher than usual.
Therefore, we must be prepared to buy if it falls. If it rises, we will simply watch and examine the upward trend line along with this bearish engulfing candle. Really It is incredible timing. I have drawn a black line along the bottom line of this uptrend that began in October 2023. This uptrend line, which usually received support, has now been breached due to Charles's Law and concerns about encroachment liquidation.
Once it breaks through the support line and moves downward, that support line becomes a strong resistance line. And where did this bearish engulfing long candlestick come from? It appeared while encountering resistance at the bottom resistance line of this incredible uptrend. Therefore, we can consider this: we should prepare for the fact that the likelihood of a decline is higher than usual right now.
That does not mean it will fall, though. As I always say, I honestly tell you that no one can make short-term predictions. Ralph Wanger said this: "It is almost impossible to predict what will happen in the market in the short term. Do not predict; be prepared for a response." I, too, really do not know whether it will go up or down today.
So, how do wise investors move in this situation? Although they cannot know whether it will go up or down in the short term, they understand the capitalist system... The fact is that from a mid-to-long-term perspective, we must focus on the fact that good assets will eventually continue to rise. Therefore, rather than focusing on whether it is going up or down right now, it is crucial at this time to concentrate on the essence of living as an asset owner: maintaining a long-term perspective that it will eventually rise, gradually converting currency into assets when prices fall, and ultimately living as an asset holder.
So, we, too, must approach investing in this way. We should focus on "O-Jeul" ( joyful) investing: selecting upward-trending U.S. stocks with a mid-to-long-term perspective, enjoying account gains when prices rise, and scooping up when they drop and create dips. Now, looking at the market in the short term, there is a possibility of a conservative view.
U.S. stocks may struggle through September and into October. This is connected to the seasonality of U.S. stocks, and this period of the year is linked to interest rates and economic recession. August, September, and early October are considered the times of the year when one must be most cautious. That is why we maintain a cash weight just in case.
To view this as an opportunity rather than a crisis, we need cash, which is often referred to as "garbage." However, if we shift our perspective to a longer-term view, optimistically... It means that your perspective changes and positive possibilities grow. The more you utilize time and years, the more optimistic and positive your perspective becomes.
In the medium term, we will examine the remaining four months of this year through the lens of the presidential cycle. The black graph represents the average stock price trend from the first to the fourth year of past presidents, and the red graph represents the stock price trend from the first year of President Biden (No.
2) to the current fourth year. While they do not match perfectly, you can see that this time showed a similar trend to the average stock prices of those presidential cycles. There are four months left. The important question here is whether there will be another dip in September, as shown by the black line, or if the dip in August has already been priced in and the market will simply rise from there.
I have always advised looking at the long term; from a long-term perspective, prices will eventually go up, regardless of whether there is another dip or not. In the short term, you just need to keep the possibility open that another dip might occur. Therefore, you should maintain a moderate cash position and watch Powell's speech at Jackson Hole tonight at 11 PM.
Currently, most Fed members are anticipating interest rates in September. The opinion is that a rate cut is appropriate. Federal Reserve Governor Goolsby indicated a September rate cut, stating that while the unemployment rate drops slowly like a feather, it rises sharply like a rocket. Fed President Collins also said it is appropriate to start rate cuts soon, and Fed President Harker likewise remarked that it is appropriate to begin rate cuts in September, adding that whether it is 25 or 50 depends on the data.
Personally, I expect Powell to make similar remarks to President Harker tonight. Additionally, Fed Governor Bohan stated that gradual rate cuts are appropriate, and hawkish Federal Reserve Governor Neel Kashkari also mentioned that a September rate cut is appropriate. Dovish Governor Meredith Ely is also advocating for gradual rate cuts.
In other words, we are currently at a time when we must be most cautious— somewhere at the tail end of the high-interest rate cycle. This is a period where we do not know what kind of crisis might strike. That is why I used the expression "we are controlling the market." It seems that investors currently want a 50bp rate cut.
However, I [will express] my thoughts clearly right now. Let me explain. Personally, if the Fed mentions gradual rate cuts in its remarks today and the market immediately falls out of disappointment over the 25bp gradual statement, I believe it presents an opportunity. I think that a gradual 25bp rate cut carries much less risk than a 50bp cut from a medium-term perspective.
We were able to identify some groundwork in the Fed members' remarks earlier—specifically, the word "gradual." In other words, unless there is a sharp economic recession crisis, the Fed is highly likely to cut rates by 25bp. I also hope the economy holds up well so that the Fed implements a gradual 25bp rate cut.
Therefore, if the economy is sound, it is highly likely that the Fed will not cut rates by 50bp. However, if the market falls out of disappointment that a 25bp cut is chosen instead of a 50bp one, I would view that dip as an opportunity and buy. Also, as I showed you earlier, the market faced resistance at a very strong resistance line, and remarkably, a bearish engulfing candle appeared there.
Furthermore, today's remarkably volatile Jackson Hole speech... The point is this: if a dip forms again at this timing—in other words, if an opportunity arises—will you miss it again? As you likely saw in the comments from the majority of individual investors at the lowest point earlier, the opportunity to buy at the bottom of a dip in the stock market comes equally to all investors.
However, a tiny minority who take advantage of those who study and bow every day manage to spot this and utilize it as an opportunity, while the majority fail to do so despite being in the same situation. Why do the majority fail to catch it? It is because this opportunity is hidden within the gift wrapping of difficulty, fear, and crisis.
That is why Dosan Ahn Chang-ho said: " People often wait for opportunity, but opportunity is not caught by those who wait." He meant that before we become people who wait for opportunity, we must acquire the skills to seize it. In other words, you must have studied the investment knowledge necessary to obtain opportunities.
Did n't I personally share everything while making staggered purchases at the lowest point of the dip in August? How much more transparently can you share this now? And if you look at the season where I newly picked up shares during this dip, you can see that I recorded a 12% return in just three weeks.
If a dip returns this time and you want to seize the opportunity without missing it... All you need to do is leverage me. We are long-term investors in leveraged ETFs. Leverage is not simply limited to real estate loan leveraged ETFs. Leverage is exchanging other people's time and talent for money. In other words, receiving the essence of the materials I studied from morning till night conveniently via membership is the true application of leverage—this is how you can utilize me.
A new opportunity is coming up, and for those who want to seize it without missing out, I will leave the membership sign-up link in the pinned comment. I am confident that if you sign up, you will never find another opportunity like this in the future. I will lead the way myself, so let's go together until 2030. .
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