저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
반도체·기술주 전반의 매도세 속에서 브로드컴(AVGO)이 하락 중이며 주요 지지선이 붕괴됐다고 분석. 위쪽 가격갭(16263~16795) 미충전과 200일 지수이평선 이탈 위험을 지적하며, 피보나치 61.8%(약 15150), 78.6%(약 14180)까지 추가 하락 가능성을 제시. RSI와 추세가 약화돼 반등 확인 전까지 보유 종목은 관망을 권고하고, 150 부근에서 반등 여부를 지켜보자는 입장. 장기 최애 종목으로 인텔(INTC)을 언급.
다듬은 글
here we have the 2 uh this stock is participating within the broad uh selloff that's taking place within the semiconductor Industries and within the uh technology sector as a whole um the declines here have been fairly significant and we've also seen some price gaps to the downside um so we're really getting into some murky water here um some very kind of treacherous trading conditions are taking place right now um if you look at some of the prior videos that I've released on uh Nvidia and meta platforms for example uh you'll see that there are many stocks that are kind of falling victim to this selling pressure right now uh this is not this is not you know a sell off that's directed at one stock uh or even one sector really but the but the technology sector is really uh coming under a lot of pressure at the moment um and if you do look at the videos for uh say for example Nvidia and um meta platforms uh you'll see that some severe support levels some major support levels are being broken uh at the moment and and the selloff has been severe especially in meta platforms that stock is is in is in freef Fall it's in major trouble right now uh so you know uh it's not totally surprising to be seeing a sell off like this in broadcom as well um you know there are not many examples of stocks that are that are managing to maintain maintain themselves currently uh one name that is maintaining itself is Intel um this is a stock that I've been talking about now for quite a while I've been it's been my favorite long-term play for quite a while uh and this is really you know it's really one of the only stocks that is holding up uh at the moment uh but you know uh the selloff and broadcom here is real and we're now breaking uh some fairly important uh support levels in the process so uh you know the first thing we need to do is sort of look at the uh look at this price Gap that has been formed here um you know this really kind of extends from let's get a price low here uh 16795 would be the top of the price Gap and then this goes all the way down to uh 16263 so this this this price Gap alone might not seem like a very big distance here I mean we can try to move in here a bit um but you know this is a fairly substantial uh price Gap and at some point this is probably going to need to be filled and what this really tells us is that you know we're kind of you know we're we're we're heading into volatile territory here uh much more uncertain territory here um this does make it more difficult to start to identify support and resistance levels uh that can be used to establish trading ideas uh that does not mean that we should not be uh looking for areas to uh to to buy and sell the stock uh because these are the types of act uh activities uh chart activities which tend to also present the best opportunities when we see sell offs like this you know that's makes it much easier to get a discount uh on the share price so uh currently what we have to note here is the fact that we have broken through several uh important Fibonacci retracement levels if we're if we're using as our dominant price uh dominant price move uh the lows of $1 uh $130 uh 22 uh and the highs uh coming in at 18513 uh we can see that we very quickly broke through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement uh which rested at 17220 uh this happened fairly quickly um and then we also broke through the uh the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement uh before finding some support at at this move's 50% retracement uh we were starting to see some rallies here at that point uh but then you know this Thursday selloff happened last week uh and most of the technology sector really started to get punished uh probably for over overvaluation uh maybe going too long without a selloff you know you can come up with any reason you want here um but what what what is clear uh is that uh these sell-offs are broad-based and this isn't being directed at at individual stocks uh but currently um you know we have now started to break through this 50% retracement uh that would be this green line here so at the moment the only the only thing that's really holding up prices at this point uh would be this uh ascending Blue Line uh this upward sloping Blue Line uh which is the 200 period exponential moving average so um at the moment you know I wouldn't really have a lot of confidence uh in this uh in this level Alone um especially due to the fact that you know we're trading back into this Gap uh which occurred previously we have to remember there was a there was a much larger price Gap uh that occurred this would have been roughly the middle of June um so you know we're currently trading in this area so you know it stands to reason that we would have to fill uh this price gap before moving lower uh this is kind of unfortunate here because this does suggest if this if that is true uh this would suggest that uh we would also be breaking through the 618 retracement uh the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which currently comes in at 15150 um so that really does signal a much deeper decline here um and it does sort of suggest that we wouldn't really see any support until the 786 retrace uh retracement uh which comes in at 14180 that would be a significant significant price move lower um you know it's it's almost hard to believe that we could see prices fall that far uh but there really isn't much holding up prices at in their at their current levels um and then we also have to deal with this fact that uh you know this price Gap from that you know that we saw previously has not yet been filled U so that's a problem that has to be addressed um overall you know I'm really not expecting this 200 period exponential moving average to be enough uh to support prices given the fact that we had a a historical support Zone here and this 50% retracement uh which was not able uh to kind of maintain uh share prices and and uh hold off selling pressure um we did we did fall through there quite quickly um even after the price Gap this initial price Gap occurred um so you know to me this just doesn't look like enough uh to be able to support prices here um and we still have the fact that you know this price Gap has not yet been filled um if we really are looking at this price Gap to be filled this is going to require at least a test of 50 um that does come in Fair roughly close with this with the 618 retracement um I mean so I guess I suppose it's possible that you could see uh some some buying activity there it's also a psychological round number uh the market does like to focus on those types of round numbers um you know but you it's way too early to start to advise people to start buying directly into that area because as you can see in the relative strength index uh you know this long-term upward Trend and momentum uh has now been broken we can kind of zoom in on this a bit here we can see that this purple line has broken below the white trend line um and then you know in addition to that th uh is also trading well below its moving average which is the yellow line so uh you know overall there's really not much here to suggest that we're ready for a bounce anytime soon that that does not mean that we can't get a bounce out of 150 um I would just prefer to wait uh to see how prices actually behave once we get there um because you know the this price cap isn't exactly filled at that point and there really isn't any other you know there are no other moving averages at that point um you know we don't have any other Fibonacci support until 141 so uh you know and the overall downtrend and momentum here uh does remain valid so you know at the moment my suggestion here would be to hold off on this stock you're going to have to wait until the dust settles exercise some patience here um and then we'll kind of see how the stock behaves uh as as we're going as we test uh 150 uh
Comments 0