저자: 미상 · 외국인
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엔비디아 4분기 실적 발표 후 분석. 매출 50억달러 수준, 가이던스 52억달러로 성장 지속, 데이터센터·게임 매출 급성장. 실적 대비 밸류에이션은 프리미엄이나 성장성 감안 시 정당화. 주가는 600달러 부근, 610~615달러 돌파 여부를 핵심 저항선으로 제시하며 상단 돌파 시 추가 상승 가능, 590~560달러 중간 구간 재조정 가능성도 언급. 진행자는 장기 보유 관점에서 매수·보유를 제안.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors hopefully guys had a great day out there time to talk about nvidia corporation ticker symbol nvda the stock just reported earnings after the bell if you're new to the channel we jump into the numbers we'll take a look at the revenue we'll take a look at the profit we'll take a look at the balance sheet on this one and then finally we'll get over to the stock chart as well this stock ended the day at about 580 dollars per share it's popped up about 10 dollars in the after hour section it's actually teetering right on an interesting range so we'll talk about what you could potentially do with nvidia tomorrow if you want to add to your position or start a position or even maybe even potentially sell your position in nvidia now over the last year the stock is up nah just 92 that's it we've got a 350 billion dollar market cap very small dividend on this one you're getting a nice little point zero one one percent yield they do just pay a small a dividend so if you're buying and holding this one you get a couple pennies for your efforts now nvidia beat by 29 cents and beat on a revenue i think the most important thing is they're guiding in the next quarter the first quarter to 5.3 billion dollars when we jump over to the numbers we'll see they just had a quarter where they did about five billion dollars so they're just in continuing the train they're expecting another 300 million dollars added on to that now first thing is first let's take a look at valuation you might be wondering well there's nvidia there's amd there's intel there's qualcomm there's tsm there's lots of chip makers out there nvidia tends to be premium priced here's a price to sales basis look these companies earn money in a different way some of them flow money on the balance sheet some of them don't some of them pay larger dividends some of them don't but they all make money kind of the same way okay obviously they have different products and different specialties but a sale is a sale amongst the chip makers and so we're comparing price to sales amongst all of them and you see here nvidia in the orange line is trading at 23 times sales that is nearly double amd which i happen to buy today at 10 times sales intel just so bringing up the rear at about three times sales qualcomm's at 5.82 time sales and taiwan's semiconductor is at 12 times sales so first thing to understand is if you're buying into nvidia or you're wondering if you do you're probably going to pay a premium because i've got a three-year chart here it's always traded at a premium except back here at the end of 2018 you could have got it probably for a pretty darn good price there so it trades it at premium to its peers part of it is because when we come over here and look at the revenue trend it is phenomenal and they're in some of this kind of sexy stuff so they're in gaming they're in data center take a look at data center back in q1 of 20 we were making 634 in revenue that has more than tripled to now we're in q4 2021 to 1.9 billion dollars gaming has always been their market or their leading product notice we were at a billion now we're at about 2.5 billion dollars that's in a little over a year and a half two years so just phenomenal growth you see here back in q1 of 2020 we were at 2.2 billion now oh we're up at 5 billion and they're projecting 5.2 billion in the next quarter let's jump over to the numbers so i talked about over the last three months january over january of last year we've got revenue from 3.1 billion all the way up to 5 billion now the cost of revenue man it barely moved i i mean this is uh we're up 2 billion here and we really only added less than about 750 million dollars to the cost side of that revenue that means gross profit's going to be phenomenal we went from 2 billion up to 3.1 billion dollars here's our 12 month view so they're giving you a full 12 months here this is back in january and this is january of this year on the gross profit side you went from 6.7 up to 10.4 billion dollars you can see why this stock is up big time over the last year when you are i mean that's not quite a double but it's pretty darn close in one of the hottest business models on the stock market right now which is chip making now this is not all our expenses okay we got operating expenses we've got r d we got selling general administrative and that's how they wrap it up notice here take a look again we went from 3 billion up to 5 billion our cost of revenue moved a little bit but take a look cost really didn't go up that much went from a billion in cost up to 1.65 billion that means income from operations right here went from we'll call that a billion dollars last year in the quarter up 500 million to 1.5 billion dollars okay let's take a look at it from the 12 month view we went from 2.8 billion dollars up to 4.5 billion dollars i want you to annualize out this 1.5 okay so it's about 6 billion if you annualize that number because this is for three months this is for 12 months if you want to assume look nvidia's got hyper trends they're data centered they're gaming it's going to grow next year if that's what you're assuming okay you could times this number by four and it's not an exact science it's not exact math but it lets you know that look this 4.5 is probably gonna grow again next year so this is a company that is just flowing tons of money to the net income side now they have some adjusted numbers on here not necessarily going to pay attention to them because the non-adjusted numbers are phenomenal but one thing to keep in mind when we take a look at these numbers and these expenses there's stock based compensation banked into these numbers and so this is not all cash okay in fact they're earning more than this on a cash basis when you factor in some of those expenses actually factor in stock based compensation not like salary based dollar based compensation now from a balance sheet perspective everything's looking really good in video we went from about i'll call that 11 billion up to about 11.5 billion one thing i thought that was interesting was their inventory doubled over the the last year or so they were at about 979 and that doubled to about eight 1.8 billion i wonder if this is like this is i would guess probably not finished inventory if you dig into the financials and stuff you might be able to find the answer to this question but i would guess it's probably in progress stuff it's stuff that they're working on it's not necessarily finished inventory that's sitting on the shelf waiting to be sold it could be like materials to make the chips and things like that that should or will be delivered in future quarters obviously they're guiding to a fantastic first quarter that's even better than their most recent quarter so you'd have to assume sales are going to continue to be robust over at nvidia now they got a little bit of short-term debt about uh build a billion sitting there on the short-term side ticked up here on the long-term side look like they they might have taken out a little bit of debt but not too bad our total liabilities went up quite a bit okay we went from 5 billion up to about 11 billion but when you're growing i mean first of all they have about that sitting on the balance sheet in cash they have accounts receivables as well they have plenty of money at the the rate that nvidia is going to uh borrow this money it's not that big of a deal so balance sheet perspective looks perfect from a revenue perspective this is just phenomenal now let's jump to the stock chart can you get this one whoa it's going up even higher in the after hours people are digesting this report as you are as well we're now up back to 600 per share so this one kind of blew i have this line in here at 588 this is about when we open the video that's where it was because we topped out here with nvidia and boy it sold off all the way down to uh we'll call that about 470 dollars per share went all the way back up and then came all the way back down to the bottom of a range here at 515 dollars per share hovered there for a while went all the way up made new highs this was interesting once it popped above 590 it made new highs here i would actually anticipate at this point now that nvidia is kind of pushing up above 590 and we're close to about 600 i would put say that these all-time highs at about 6 10 615 are back in place so here's two things that you want to look for okay can nvidia push above 610 okay 615 613 i have marked out here if we can push above this on a big green candle and maybe confirm it the next day well look this stock could continue a monster up trend we could probably test 630 640 on this one the other thing if you want to buy shares of nvidia and you don't want to buy here at the top well this is a key level i'd watch it at 6 15.
will this stock get rejected in this range again we popped up above here with nvidia over the last few days and the stock got rejected in fact it got rejected all the way down here to 5 30. so it's something to keep in mind this is a critical area in my opinion it's going to do one of two things it is going to pop up above here i would say that's a slightly lower probability but it certainly could happen we could pop up above here and make just make new highs and then start consolidating sideways the other thing is we kind of hit our head up in here sellers step in up here which they have done several times and this stock comes back into kind of an intermediate range here between 560 and 590.
whether or not you want to really cut edges on on this one if you're trying to add to it i'll let you to decide if you've got a smaller account chances are you're fractional sharing buying this since it is a 560 account and you only have a few thousand dollars in your account personally i would only buy a small amounts of this one so you're not going to get hurt necessarily either way just letting you know what kind of price action typically occurs when stocks are up here retesting all-time highs sellers tend to step in when we reach these highs unless we just kind of blow through it so that was nvidia great quarter and they're guiding to a really strong q1 they've got a lot of momentum behind all their products and their business models this is one in my opinion you buy you hold and you go to the golf course and you look for another stock to buy so that was in video i hope you guys enjoyed this one we'll be back again with more videos the rest of the week thanks for tuning in good luck with your investments
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