저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 글로벌 통화시스템·기술·신자산군으로서 기관 진입의 선두이며, 최근 플래시 크래시 이후 바닥을 본 것으로 보고 있다. 이더리움 레이어2 확산은 기관용, 솔라나는 소비자용으로 구분한다. 크립토 관련 주식(코인베이스, 로빈후드, 서클)과 ETH·SOL을 포함해 포트폴리오 약 12~13%를 배정 중이다. 엔비디아 실적은 매출 가속과 마진 확대로 좋았으나 경쟁(클라우드 자체칩, 테슬라 칩)과 기대치 부담이 있다. AMD는 메모리 용량과 CPU 점유율 확대로 단기 유리하다고 본다. 비트코인 4년 사이클 공식이 약화되고 있어 과거 패턴이 달라진 새 시대라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
Uh, so, we think uh, from the beginning when we talk about Bitcoin, we say, "Look, it's a very big idea. It is a global monetary system. It is a technology. And it is a new asset class. It's leading the charge into a completely new asset class. So, it's the leader. And it's where all institutions are going to dip their toes in first.
So, that one has to be at the top of the list just in terms of the big three. I think in terms of Oh, okay. So, you're asking Let me start with the crypto first. Um, I think during the flash crash, uh, one of the major exchanges out there had to sell Bitcoin. This is what always happens. Um, Bitcoin is the most liquid of all of the crypto assets out there.
So, it usually is the first one to get sold and drag the others down. The others go down more. Um, so, we think and again, we're we're at a moment where we think we've seen the bottom because the news is out. Uh, JP Morgan posted a report about MSCI. Now, everyone knows that. Uh, everyone knows about the flash crash.
Um, and you know, while Binance is very, very profitable, I think there are memories of Bitfinex which, um, uh, which have left scarred tissue and you know, the the ramifications thereof. Uh, so, we think uh, from the beginning when we talk about Bitcoin, we say, "Look, it's a very big idea. It is a global monetary system.
It is a technology. And it is a new asset class. It's leading the charge into a completely new asset class. So, it's the leader. And it's where all institutions are going to dip their toes in first. So, that one has to be at the top of the list just in terms of the big three. I think in terms of ether and Solana, the the the narratives are shifting a little bit.
Absolutely, Ethereum is what institutions are choosing. Um, as uh, they're building on top of the Ethereum, uh, layer one with layer twos. Now, the big debate out there is are layer layer twos, and you know, they're proliferating widely now. Are they going to commoditize because they're not close enough to the consumer except for base, which is Coinbase's one.
They're not close enough to the consumer. Uh, and they they're, um, dependent on the layer ones. So, over time as these proliferate, is there going to be a commoditization and the value will flip to those closer to the consumer and to the layer ones. Um, we're thinking that could be, uh, the case here.
Uh, but all that said, uh, the proliferation of building layer twos on Ethereum continues. So, that would be our our second choice. Um, and really it's, I think as I described on the last call, really an institutional play. And then Solana is more the consumer play, though of course it also would like to be part of the, uh, institutional uh, scaling of crypto crypto.
Uh, so, we shall see there. And of course, Solana is just a layer one, so much simpler. So, uh, I I think those are the big three. In terms of, uh, equities, and you'll see in the flagship strategy, we cannot hold, um, the pure plays in in terms of ETFs. In other strategies, we can. It's just what our clients would and would not accept, uh, as we were evolving our strategy.
And so, we have to rely on the stocks. So, you'll see Coinbase is right up there. It's number one. Robinhood is number two in terms of it is moving quickly towards the digital wallet space and understands this is the game. Who's going to have that digital wallet? [snorts] Uh, and then you'll see us trying to expose our clients, um, to stablecoins.
So, Circle is, uh, that one. Further down the pack. And a little bit of ether and Solana. Uh, so, I think uh, including the last two, one is very small, the Solana. Uh, for for technical reasons right now, it's still in pre-registration. And the, uh, ether one is around 2% of the portfolio. So, taking crypto all together, we're probably talking about a 12-13% position, uh, in in the portfolio.
And that feels the right size. Let's see how this recovery tests the various technicals and, uh, if, um, you know, decisions by institutions like the the the wirehouses, Morgan Stanley, um, BofA Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, UBS, if any of them decide to put Bitcoin on their platform through the ETFs.
They have not done so yet. Uh, so, we're waiting to see when that happens. And they may have been waiting for this four-year cycle to play out, right? Uh, because that's what they've heard since, uh, since the halving. And and now we're seeing a down round. Let's see if they step in. We don't know. So, what they're saying is, "We have approved this spot ETF.
It can be spot Bitcoin, spot ETH. We have approved this, uh, on our platform. And you can put it in your models. Uh, you can buy it for your PAs, your personal accounts. So, it's a pretty big deal and it's really demand pull from the advisors. If they want it, if their clients are clamoring for it saying, "Hey, now is the time.
Let's let's get into these, uh, into these new assets." Yeah, I think, well, a couple of points there. And you'll notice that we did buy on that setback. And you're right, it's not a huge position. It's about 1 and 1/2%. Um, and one of the reasons for that, we're watching the price action. That's that's true, but I also think there was a crypto AI relationship here.
The kinds of investors interested in crypto are also interested in AI. Uh, and you know, there there was a sell-off and you're going to have, uh, some investors, speculators certainly, uh, following the momentum. Uh, and that's all they're doing, you know, and they'll ask questions later. Uh, in terms of the Nvidia report, it was spectacular.
It was a re-acceleration in top-line growth. It was an increase in margins. Uh, but we do see other signs of competition emerging out there. Uh, and you know, the hyperscalers, their cloud strategies probably do not have 75% gross margins. Uh, and they're buying from Nvidia and now Nvidia's telegraphing, "Our margins are higher than our customers." So, that that might be, um, uh, unsettling to them and and pushing them to pursue a strategy involving AMD or involving Google's TPUs.
Um, or uh, involving Amazon's Trainium or Inferentia. So, there there are and then you've got the special purpose GPUs. Tesla is talking in very optimistic tones about its own AI chip and how it expects to have the best chip for robo taxis, for autonomous mobility, uh, of of all out there. Because Nvidia's is a special purpose, I mean, as a general purpose chip, Tesla's will be a special purpose chip.
So, I always look at how customers and competitors are acting. Um, and yes, the expectations, uh, uh, for Nvidia are high. They're very high. Now, we have one acceleration quarter. Is the market now expecting another acceleration? Their guidance suggests it could be, but maybe it won't be. Uh, so, we're getting into that.
So, you're right, the expectations are high and Nvidia has to deliver. So far, Nvidia's delivered. Yeah, there's the thought with power being the constraint here, um, it probably means that companies are going to choose the best chip and, you know, especially when it comes to the CUDA software around the Nvidia chip.
Uh, one of the things AMD has that Nvidia does not have yet, although it's on the road map, is it has much more memory, uh, for these large context that we need for reasoning. And so so that's something that's benefiting AMD short-term. And one of the other things that it has, it's taking share from Intel in the CPU space.
It's up to 40% share. That's unbelievable. In speaking with OpenAI, uh for during a number of our conversations, they say we think people are missing the fact that we need both GPUs and CPUs. Uh so for right now, we think AMD's in a very good spot. Bitcoin just accomplished something it hasn't done in a long time.
For 10 years, it produced its first red candle. According to a four-year cycle story, the following year, 2013, 2017, and 2021, is when the supply shock starts and prices soar. [snorts] The absence of the customary fireworks this time is a hint that the traditional playbook is dwindling. Simple declining returns are one explanation.
Bitcoin currently acts more like a macro asset than a speculative rocket, and each cycle's upside has been less than the previous one. The market no longer swings as sharply on the same triggers due to spot ETFs and increased institutional participation. When Bitcoin broke its all-time high in March of 2024, before the event ever occurred, the change was clearly apparent.
It's possible that most of the wall of money arrived earlier than anticipated, pushing demand forward and making 2025 flatter than anticipated. Additionally, it broke the previous pattern of three bull years, one barren year, and even a move of less than 10% annually. Clearly, that is a new era.
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