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마이크론 5분봉 막판 급락에도 엔비디아·브로드컴 신고가로 AI 사이클 유효하다는 주장. 샌디스크는 52~53배 PER 부담으로 기술적 리셋 중이며 과매도 구간 진입 후 반등 기대. 엔비디아 H200 중국 판매 허가와 2027년까지 매진 근거, 어플라이드머티리얼즈 실적(30% 성장 전망), 세레브라스 IPO 수요를 메모리 강세 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back. Hey, I'm traveling this week. I just landed in the happiest place on Earth. Shout out to all you Florida viewers out there and drop a comment below if you know where I am. But guys, today didn't feel like the happiest place on Earth on the market. In fact, if you're looking at your portfolio right now, it probably felt a little bit of heavy at the end of the day.
Micron violently pulled back just in the last few seconds of the trading session and it closed at 776. And SanDisk, it had another rough day trading today. It was down 4 and 1/2%. We've seen multiple days now where that stock has pulled back has been under selling pressure. So, the instincts may be telling you that the AI trade is cooling off.
But then when you look over at the big players like Nvidia and Broadcom, they had a completely opposite day today. Those stocks all hit new all-time highs. And the the fundamentals for those stocks are essentially screaming that the demand for the memory stocks that you're holding in your portfolio, the memory players, the Fab Four in the market are higher than ever.
Today we're we're talking about the disconnect and why the stocks that we track in this channel are down and why they were down today while the sector had a breakout day. Why the Cerebrus IPO and the Applied the Applied Materials earnings that dropped after the close, why those two things are the ultimate safety net for this sector.
That's what we're going to dive into and talk about in today's video. t's been awesome to see the growth that we've had on this channel over the last month, three at least three or four weeks. Let's keep it going. I appreciate each and every one of your Let's start off . Let's take a look at the Nasdaq 100.
Let me pull that up. Cuz this has been a very different chart for every day we've looked at it this week. You can clearly see that Nvidia and Broadcom led the way today in the market. Nvidia was up almost 4 and 1/2%. Broadcom up 5 and 1/2%. Micron down by 3 and 1/2%. So, Micron has had some wild trades throughout the week.
It's been down, it's been up, and it's been down again. It's been a little bit of a sideways movement, we'll call it, across the board. I thought the stock would find support around the 795, 798 level. Clearly was wrong. We had a massive move right at the close right before the closing bell with Micron.
I'm going to show you that later on one of the charts. We can dive into it, but it ended up finishing at about 779 today overall. But the picks and the shovels had a mixed bag, but it clearly was a rotation out of the memory sector into some of these other stocks that were driving momentum like Nvidia and Broadcom.
But we have to jump over and take a look at SanDisk cuz this is the thousand-pound elephant in the room right now. We've had multiple days where the stock has been under pressure. And you could see right now it it closed at 1383, just just under 1384, $63 down, about 4 and 1/2% in the after hours we're seeing another full percent down, another $15 down for the stock.
It's trading right now at about 1368. And the reason it has so many investors worried is because this is about a 200-point drop in a three or four days. Remember at the beginning of this week, the stock was trading towards 1600. It was on a parabolic run. Like it has if we just look down at the growth targets over here, you can see today down 4 and 1/2%, but look at the one week over about 11 and 1/2% change with SanDisk.
The one month is 55, the three months 120%. So those great growth rates look great, but it's right now what's happening with the stock right now that has all of the investors concerned. They're wondering why you see a stock drop 200 points. We see price targets in that range of a of 1800 to 2000. What is going on?
So to understand this two-point drop, we have to look at the price of growth. Even after this dip though, SanDisk is trading at 53X trailing PE, and its revenue for this company has grown 251% last quarter. So the market is having a bit of a valuation tantrum with SanDisk. Investors are worried that interest rates will stay higher or longer.
So, the 50 plus multiple that we see with the stock right now on a hardware hardware company, it is seen as a liability right now in the market. We're also seeing a bit of a preemptive rotation as I mentioned a few moments ago. Capital is moving at least it did today. Moved out of the memory sector into the other players and we saw capital move into an Nvidia when it was breaking out today achieving a new all-time high for the stock.
Institutions are literally selling their SanDisk winners to fund the Nvidia chase, to fund the Broadcom chase that they did today. This is it's not like SanDisk is broken though. The SanDisk BisGate technology that fundamental is incredibly strong. It's still a pure play, the most pure play NAND in the market, but they're using SanDisk as a piggy bank, let's say, to catch the momentum with other stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom today.
This is a technical and a mechanical reset, not a fundamental reset for this stock. And when a stock gets this far ahead of its moving averages like we've seen with SanDisk, it becomes a target also for algorithmic profit taking. There's no question about we saw that. We've been seeing insider selling as well with SanDisk too.
It's all putting pressure on the stock, driving the stock down at the moment. But here's the key right now I would say for all of the SanDisk holders out there. The stock right now is trading well below analyst price targets. This tells me the technicals are finally starting to de-risk from the stock.
It's creating a massive gap for a catch-up trade in my opinion. This is a rotation for SanDisk. It's not an exit. So, make sure you stay disciplined, but let's jump over and take a look at the the stocks that that did perform. The where where did the capital rotate to? We clearly saw it rotate to two names.
I showed them earlier. First one is Broadcom. Broadcom was up 5 and 1/2% today. Almost a $23 gain. You could see the stock closed at an all-time one of all-time high. It actually hit a new 52-week high today at 42 442.36. It closed just under 4 440 a share. You can see in the after-hours it's fairly flat, about $0.69 uh uh reduction.
So, we'll just call that flat across the board. But, Broadcom it hit that new all-time high as I mentioned. It finished up nearly you know nearly 6% across the board, right? It was about 5 and 1/2% and this was driven clearly by Wells Fargo and Citibank who finally admitted that this stock is under appreciated in the market.
The revenue coming from custom AI chips from for Google and for Meta, what Broadcom specializes in, they're underestimating that and they just went on to claim they also mentioned that Broadcom is not just a networking company anymore. They are a company now that is targeting a hundred billion in AI chip revenue by the end of next year.
So, huge recognition for what this company does in the market and it was shown today with investors rotating capital into them and the breakout performance that it had. The other breakout performer of the day was Nvidia. Nvidia has actually been on a run for the last few days. So, they closed at just under its 52-week high.
You can see here at 236.54 closed and we'll call it 236, up about 4 and 1/2% about $10 on on today. Oh, go up another $2 in the after-hours right now, closing you know, trading at about 237.75. But, another big piece that came out, let me show you, was a new price target for Nvidia. Let's see if they have it listed.
Yeah, it was right here. So, uh uh Cantor Fitzgerald and UBS both came out with new price targets actually yesterday, but you can see move from 300 to 350, UBS from 245 to 275. You also see that Bank of America earlier in the week went up to about 320 as well. So, a lot of new price targets kind of new ratings for the new company this week.
So, it's been on a run. We know when we were kind of hovering that sideways digestion with Nvidia for a while at 200. We finally see a break up and get up to this about 236 level across the board. So, Nvidia it's all driven in my opinion. The major catalyst I would say is reports that the US government have finally cleared the H200 GPU sales that hurdle for for Nvidia to sell into China.
And there's apparently 10 major Chinese tech firms that they have been authorized to sell to. When you when you factor that in plus the price targets I mentioned that Canter Fitzgerald went up to 350. They're stating that as part of that reason to go to 350, they're stating that Nvidia is sold out through 2026 and 2027.
So, guys, this is the holy grail for us as memory stockholders. Memory investors, to hear that Nvidia is sold out through 2027 is a massive play for us overall. Every Nvidia H200 chip is useless without massive amounts of HBM3E memory. If Nvidia is sold out through 2027, it means that Micron's HBM production, those lines are effectively pre-sold for the next 2 years.
And Broadcom's success in custom chips is a direct win for DDR5 and HBM demand. So, every custom chip that Broadcom designs for hyperscaler requires a corresponding high margin memory stack from players like Micron. Historically, when the GPU players and the networking chips, when they take off and take the lead, the memory stocks, oh, they follow with just a slight lag.
So, today's surge in Nvidia and Broadcom suggests that the demand for Micron and the demand for the memory sector isn't slowing down, it's accelerating across the board. So, to back up this kind of massive memory shield that I've been trying to present here is kind of my thesis for the video. I would say we have to also look at what we saw at the close of the bell when you take a look at Applied Materials and their earnings.
So, when you pull it up, you can see Applied Materials delivers record quarter stronger than expected outlook. A few things were very bullish for the sector in here. First of all, Applied Materials, they posted record revenue of just under, you know, 8 billion, 7.91. But, what the CEO mentioned in here on a call out is they delivered record quarterly performance and now we expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow by more than 30% in this calendar year.
The rapid global build-out of AI computing infrastructure combined with Applied's strong leadership positions in leading-edge logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging provide an excellent strong foundation for sustained multi-year revenue and profit profit growth. So, that's right. Those are very bullish words.
I would think when you look at a company that had a almost an 8 billion in revenue, a record revenue from them, and when their CEO doesn't mince words and he's saying he's seeing 30% growth in memory equipment orders for this year. If the people who build the machines to make memory are seeing record orders, the cycle is in the early innings, in my opinion.
The fundamentals right now, based on what we're seeing in the market, the signals right now in the market are saying buy the dip with Micron. It's a great buy opportunity to buy the dip. That's my opinion. Make sure you do your own research and your own due diligence and make sure it's you assess it against your own risk tolerance, of course, and make sure it fits your portfolio, but that would be my recommendation and the way I read it as well.
And then we also have to take a look at what we saw with the Cerebrus IPO. So, we knew that was coming today and like I mentioned on the channel, we saw that the prices for this IPO slide throughout the week. It started at 115 to 125. It went to 150 to 160. It actually Wednesday night said it was going to be 185.
It ended up today being about 350 a share when it was trading in earlier. Closed at the day, the stock is about 31107 a share. 60-68% up from the original price that they wanted for this IPO. So, if you guys remember, I mentioned let this cool off a little bit. If you didn't get a chance to get in, my my advice would be let it cool off, but it's also a great sign to see this level of demand in the market and what it means for the memory players overall because when you see an IPO like this come out and they I mean, remember that Cerebrus has a the giant chips.
These giant chips are like memory sponges, we'll say. They require massive bandwidth and on-chip storage. Every time a new player like Cerebrus succeeds, it breaks the monopoly. It creates a bidding war for high-end memory like that Micron and SanDisk provide. Cerebrus isn't just a chip story. It's a memory intensity story in the market.
So, this is to me, my opinion, is also a bullish sign. And then the final thing I want to take a look at is just 5-minute candle view cuz I mentioned the beginning, we saw a flush with Micron today at the end. So, let's jump over and just take a look at how Micron finished and what we expect for tomorrow.
But, you can see it had was down today 3 and 1/2%. The after hours, we were actually up. We're flat right now. So, it's kind of hovering around. We're at 776. We're at 776 in the after hours, but I want to show you the the 5-minute candle chart because take a look at that last minute flush right here.
This last 5 minutes before the market closed. You can see a massive downward candle. This is the candle that took the stock from 788 in the last 5 minutes went to 776 across the board. And what you can also see there is if you look down here at the RSI, you can see the RSI is significantly cooled off.
It's down into about the 26 range right here overall. So, these are big signals for us to keep our eye on because when you see Micron create that flush like that in the final minutes, we had a massive red volume spike that drove the price down. Like I said, from 788 to 776. This was a whale clearing out the retail stops.
The stock is now deep in the oversold territory based on the RI RSI sitting at 26. Historically, when Micron gets oversold like this and we see big players like Nvidia and Broadcom hitting all-time highs, the catch-up trade is violent. It'll move fast. We're looking for Micron to potentially reclaim that 800 level tomorrow to confirm that this shakeout shakeout is over.
So, that's what I'm looking at tomorrow. Can we get back up to that 795 support level? Can we reclaim 800 with Micron in the in the first half of the trading session tomorrow. But guys, bottom line, today felt bad because the screen was red, but the data in the memory sector, in my opinion, has never been stronger.
Don't let the technical reset in SanDisk or the 5-minute flush that we saw at the end of the day for Micron shake you out of these stocks. Watch the 800 level for Micron. Watch the 1400 reclaim in SanDisk. And Nvidia and Broadcom just proved that the AI cycle is nowhere near a top. While retail crowd panics over that 3% dip that we saw today with Micron, smart money is watching the equipment orders and it's and the GPU sellouts that we talked about.
The commanders in Nvidia and Broadcom, they led the way today. The troops do catch up though. Remember, when these big boys lead, the memory plays follow. So, that's what we're going to keep our eye on tomorrow. Hope you guys enjoyed the video. Hope you have a great night, and I'll see you tomorrow.
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