저자: Just-InvestToday진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 페이스북(메타)을 저평가로 보고 추가 매수 중이며, 리루(Li Lu)의 페이스북 증액을 같은 방향 근거로 든다. [리루 13F 분석] 리루가 페이스북 지분을 53% 늘린 것이 가장 큰 화제다. 진행자는 리루가 과거 분기마다 페이스북을 팔았다가 다시 사는 것을 보고 '너무 저평가됐다'고 본 것으로 해석한다. 리루는 뱅크오브아메리카도 추가했는데, 금리 상승 시 은행 이자수익이 늘어난다는 논리다. 리루는 마이크론 대규모 보유(포트폴리오 약 40%, 미국 주식 기준 78%라는 언급도 있음)를 유지 중이며, 진행자는 본인이 마이크론을 약 15~20% 이익에 팔았는데 이후 급등해 판단 실수였을 수 있다고 말한다. 리루는 PDD를 전량 매도했고, 바이두(BABA)는 2020년에 매도했다고 언급된다. [페이스북(메타) 전망] 진행자 판단으로 페이스북 적정가는 주당 350~400달러다. 근거로 오큘러스 매출 전년비 약 100% 성장, AR/VR 시장 연 20% 성장을 든다. 메타버스 투자가 허위 서사라는 주장으로, 실제 투자는 AI·데이터센터·슈퍼컴퓨터에 있으며 이것이 더 나은 광고 타겟팅으로 이어진다고 본다. 왓츠앱 비즈니스(해외 소상공인 활용)가 아직 저평가된 수익원이라는 주장이다. 시장이 비관적일 때가 역발상 투자 기회라고 강조한다. [세스 클라먼(Seth Klarman) 13F 분석] 인텔, 구글(알파벳), 메타, 이베이 일부 또는 전량을 매도했다. 구글 매도는 실적이 좋았던 점에서 의외로 본다. 드롭박스는 축소, 세리타지(CERT 계열 언급)도 축소했다. 마이크론은 50% 이상 매수한 것으로 언급된다. 진행자는 클라먼이 메타 재투자 위험과 광고 사업 악화를 보고 있을 수 있다고 해석한다. [가이 스피어(Guy Spier) 13F 분석] 포트폴리오 변동이 거의 없다. 버크셔해서웨이, 아메리칸익스프레스, 뱅크오브아메리카, 마스터카드, 페라리, 마이크론, 알리바바 등을 장기 보유한다. 진행자는 인내심과 장기 보유의 모범으로 높이 평가한다. [리스크·조건] 마이크론은 실적이 나쁘면 20~30% 하락할 수 있다는 리스크가 언급된다. 진행자 본인은 페이스북 추가 매수 후에도 현금 약 5%를 유지하고 있다.
다듬은 글
today we have some great news all the 30 f's from q4 2021 just came out and it's amazing to be honest man we're going to talk about lilu seth claremont we talk about guy spirit and monash in this video but let's get into lead loop first this was a huge surprise is lido copying me like what is going on because look what he just did he just added his facebook position 53 and i was done adding facebook i was doing the same thing like look what he was selling he was selling facebook every single quarter he sold um facebook in q4 q1 right and then he goes on to buy it because he sees it so undervalued man so he added 53 and that's exactly what i saw too i just i just had a video about facebook this is 12 days ago and i still don't know if i made the right decision because i didn't have enough money to like i had enough money but i didn't want to go out and put more capital i still want to have like a five percent position in cash just in case and i sold off my micron for like a fifteen twenty percent gain and then it's already gone up crazy it's already at like 91 right now so i don't know if that was a mistake and then i bought into more facebook because i feel like facebook right now it's 350 to 400 stock that's what it's really worth in my opinion i don't believe that every all this metaverse and all that stuff is unpredictable as everyone thinks it is we have proof that the oculus is growing it grew like a hundred percent year over year like what more proof do you need that oculus is here to stay people kids are actually coming up and getting more into ar and vr that space is growing like 20 a year like so are we trying to say like that's just unpredictable when we know oculus is working and they're just going to continue that progress and the spend that everyone is crying about think about it they're not in just investing in metaverse like that's a false narrative that they're just spending on metaverse and that's all that's false if you actually read the report they're investing in ai investing in data facilities and people like you always going to need to invest in that and the data ai um the super computers that's so there's going to be better ads like they that's what they're telling you they're doing the data servers they're doing ai intelligence all that so they don't have to rely on apple as much get better data so they can give better ads so that's what they're hinting at that's what they're saying they're going to whatsapp business and that's generating that's going to start generating money in my opinion because what's app loki a lot of people overseas use that as business like they use whatsapp for business so that's very underrated right now so facebook i feel like has a lot of potential people are not seeing it that way people are very bearish and that's when you want to invest in these companies you're going to be contrarian it's going to be so hard for you to invest in facebook now because everyone's on facebook everyone thinks it's the worst company ever you're going to shun it away because you want to do what everyone else does and everyone else wants to throw out facebook say it's a bad investment because of this this and that but they're not doing the deep vibes they're not going to have that contrarian view subscribe subscribe subscribe he invested more in bank of america and i think this is a good trade because yes interest rates are gonna go up and that's all gonna benefit the banks man these interests going up they're going to get more money on their interest so this is a good move as well he still has a huge micron position and i told you i sold out of my micron i don't know if that was a mistake it might have been but i thought facebook is way more undervalued than micron right now i don't know if that's like that could be iffy that could be you could say maybe micron's still more undervalued than facebook but i don't see that way so we're gonna see how that kind of plays out over time but i still made a nice profit on micron he sold out of pdd man he sold a hundred percent it was only like 1.5 percent of his portfolio so it wasn't a huge lot but that's still kind of eye-opening he did sell baba too but this was back in 2020 so we're seeing what lilu's doing and he has such a tight-knit portfolio any move that he makes it's always like a bang man so lilu is one of the greats in investing so always good to see the moves that he's making and you can see that he has a high commission in minecraft bank of america kind of facebook so let's see what happens i think if it goes back to 350 400 he's gonna freaking sell right out of a facebook again he's gonna sell out of it he's just seeing it as a huge investment opportunity at the moment so let's get into seth clareman so seth claremont another amazing value investor we are going to see the movies he made so he reduced on intel we're looking at this the main moves reduced on google which is kind of surprising because google had a nice earnings it had like about 30 to 40 growth so getting out of google is kind of interesting he got out of meta see this is the opposite side of it someone a nice value investor like seth claremont is getting out of meta and on the opposite side we see lilu diving head over heels for meta so it's a good observation to see in the different point of views we're seeing so what's on your arm maybe he sees that facebook's reinvestment risk is really strong the whole ad service is really it's going to go downhill so he's probably he might be seeing the opposite of what lily was doing fizzer this is an interesting buy i'm gonna have to definitely look more into this company invest more in liberty uh he uh added uh he reduced dropbox drop a lot of people had high hopes for dropbox so i'm not sure if that's an investment to look at but people still have that dropbox saying it's really undervalued it still has a lot of potential i'm not sure if i should look into that even his cells look what he's been selling so he i told you he sold intel meta he sold all of ebay he sold 50 of micron see it's always crazy to see this because we see two different opposing sides could whenever we get into mars probably we're gonna see he actually added micron so he sees a lot of upside there and a lot of upside potential as you can see lee do 40 of his portfolio in micron which is huge that's a big eye-opening thing just like 40 that's a huge so if micron goes down if they have a bad quarter who knows maybe they drop 20 30 who knows man so that's crazy to hear yeah he reduced dropbox so you can see the moves that seth kerman is making so what do you think about the seth claremont moves the lee loons man is this a good thing it's a bad thing what companies are you looking at right now since these 13 apps just came out looking at morse provides portfolio he added micron fifteen which is kind of crazy because he really has 78 of his portfolio in micron but this is not his full portfolio he still has races he has he still has like these overseas companies his process which didn't show up on this so it's this is not his whole portfolio this is just his american portfolio but him adding more it's just showing you that he's really bullish on micron because he did talk about micron how they basically get a tax on anything any kind of servers that people produce they get a lot of money from that they basically get like a tax on all this data service because you're going to need chips memory chips to produce those servers so he's seeing micron as a huge bull going forward he reduced heritage man srg which is kind of surprising because he was really up on stereotypes so maybe he's kind of brought that back down and who knows what happens with search if people are really bullish on surges they have a huge potential they think their properties are worth a lot more than what it's selling up for right now so let's see what happens with surges but most probably he's a big bull on micron on 10 cent process so do you like that do you like what he did he sold off stereotypes and bought more micron do you think micron's at a good price right now it's like around 92 93 dollars so let's see what happens with micron man and then we get into guy spearman this is amazing man he didn't do nothing that's like the memo with guy spearman he's just ice cold he has that like that ice cold veins man he just doesn't do anything he just stands pat stands still he just holds the company and he loves the company that he holds he just sees all these as long term investments and as like companies that he really truly believes in so that's how he kind of invests so i love the fact that he just stood still he held all of these amazing companies like there's not really any kinks in the armor in his portfolio maybe the only chick maybe is cerritage but syracuse has a kind of like a low risk and a high upside right because it is backed by berkshire too so everything in his portfolio is pretty sound like berkshire american spence bank of america mastercard ferrari micron another berkshire movie series alibaba like everything is just sound investment so i really like guys portfolio it's amazing and how you should stand pat this is he he is the pinnacle of just being very very patient holding on to your winners holding on to the stocks that you own and you love so that's it for the video guys what do you think about all of these moves micron facebook serious selling that off selling off ebay said claremont guy spear motors for briley liu all of these movements man so tell me what you think about these 13 f's i'm gonna do more so man
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