저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD-OpenAI 대형 딜(6GW GPU, 약 600억 달러 추정)은 엔비디아 점유율 잠식이지만 수요 공급 부족이 지속되어 산업 성장에 긍정적이라는 주장. 엔비디아 포워드 PER 33배로 저평가로 보고 매수 의견 유지, 본인도 보유 중. 자체 칩 확산 등 점유율 하락이 가속되면 재검토 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
AMD landed a huge deal with Open AI for tens of billions of dollars in potential revenue in the coming years. And already investors are asking me, what does this mean for Nvidia? Does this mean I should sell my Nvidia stock or does this make Nvidia stock a buy? So, I'm going to discuss those questions in this video as well as highlighting some details from the AMD arrangement with Open AI.
shares of AMD stock soared almost 30% after this announcement on Monday morning which sees the companies coming together for AMD to provide upward of 6 gawatt of GPUs to the AI juggernaut open AAI over several generations starting with its MI450 chips in the second half of 2026. So, if you didn't already know, each gigawatt of GPU translates to roughly $10 billion in revenue.
So, the estimated value of this deal is roughly $60 billion. Of course, very rough estimates. It could be a little bit more, a little bit less, or a lot more, a lot less. A lot depends on the details which the two did not release. But the bigger picture is AMD open AAI coming together where AMD will provide open AI with billions of dollars of its technology.
This is a technology that Nvidia is also providing for Open AI through partners such as Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft etc. So this is encroaching on Nvidia's market share to be sure. But there is something important to remember here. This was always going to happen. I've been talking about this for more than a year, closer to two years, how Nvidia is absolutely dominant in this category.
Roughly 90% market share in thhat was an unsustainable market share. And I've been talking about how these large hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Open AI, Meta Platforms, etc. are uncomfortable with giving Nvidia this much market share. But they had no other choice. There was no other viable product in the marketplace that could take meaningful market share.
Now with AMD, kudos to AMD for presenting a viable second option is now good enough to garner larger percentage market share in the industry. I imagine this is one of just a few new deals AMD will announce with partners including Open AI, but also Oracle, Metal Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet.
I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those companies announce big deals with AMD as well as AMD's technology advances forward. But what does this mean for Nvidia? Well, Nvidia stock, first of all, let's look at valuation and going to fiscal AI and retrieving the company's forward price to earnings ratio.
Nvidia stock is trading at a forward PE of 33, which is not expensive at all. In fact, I think it's undervalued based on the performance Nvidia has delivered over previous years. Now, the reason why Nvidia's valuation has been as low as it has been is because of this factor. uh one of the reasons I think is because of this factor.
Uh investors understood that Nvidia's market dominance in this category was unsustainable. Uh if it wasn't AMD, Nvidia was going to lose market share to Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet who are developing their own chips. So Nvidia would lose market share to those chips that provided in-house from those large hyperscalers.
They were never going to give Nvidia 90% market share in such a vital category for an extended period. It was very early days. There was no viable second or third choice. And so these companies just purchased as much of Nvidia's products as they could possibly purchase. They told Nvidia, "Whatever you can produce and give us, we'll buy it." Right?
whatever you can do because the industry right now is extremely supply constrained meaning there's more demand than there is supply and that's been true for a while now and that looks like it will be true for a while going forward so even with Nvidia's uh loss of market share to AMD the overall size of the Pi continues to increase and it's not like AMD is gaining market share because they're now better than Nvidia.
It's not that. If that was the reason, then I would be concerned and I would be talking about potentially selling my shares of Nvidia. By the way, I own Nvidia stock. I bought Nvidia shares earlier this year at around $923 per share. And this news does not make me at all concerned about my ownership of Nvidia stock or interested in selling my Nvidia stock.
This is something I have been anticipating for some time now and it's something I expected for a while now. I I wasn't expecting Nvidia to persist in uh garnering 90% market share. But if I start to see AMD's technology is making great progress against Nvidia's and its performance is coming close to Nvidia and a lot of its competitors, a lot of Nvidia's customers, those large hyperscalers are looking to AMD as a primary option instead of a secondary option.
That's when I'll really be concerned about Nvidia and Nvidia stock. But as it stands, this deal doesn't make me very concerned about my Nvidia shares. It makes me more optimistic about the AI industry and the development of the AI industry and t makes the industry's growth more robust, more diversified because now you have another supplier coming in with the critical component.
The GPUs are the critical component that's making all of this development of artificial intelligence possible. And so now you have another supplier coming into the market providing another option just in case Nvidia maybe cannot increase supply. Maybe demand continues soaring the way it has been and the industry remains supply constrained.
Now AMD can step in and fill in the gaps and so there no longer needs to be this supply constraint. the companies that need the technology can buy as much as they need without feeling left out because it's sold out, right? This makes it more viable. And so, uh, the development of the industry is stronger now as a result of this deal and the many deals we've been hearing with these AI companies raising capital, buying product, and continuously increasing the effectiveness of artificial intelligence, which of course continues to support demand for artificial intelligence.
And as I've been saying, this is an industry with a long growth ahead of it, right? hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars of growth ahead of this industry. As I've been saying, it's only in the early stages of development. We've only seen the initial signs of the increase in productivity from workers, the different products it facilitates, the different capabilities it creates.
And so, we're seeing the growth of this industry. And I'm more optimistic than ever about the AI industry overall. Nvidia shares trading at 33. I still like them. I think it's attractive at this price. So, I updated my Nvidia recommendation here rating the company as one of the top six stocks to buy right now.
And I updated that recommendation today. Of course, I also covered and I did a video earlier about AMD and how it is positioned to grow as a result of this deal. And I updated my buy rating on Nvidia earlier today. I've had an AMD stock also rated as a buy for over a year now, certainly for all of 2025.
So, it's great news for the AI industry overall, more so for AMD than for anyone else. And justifiably so, it share price is up almost 30%. But not necessarily bad news for Nvidia. And that's why you haven't seen such a negative reaction to Nvidia stock, which is relatively flat today on the back of such big news for the industry. .
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