저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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잭슨홀 심포지엄에서 파월 연준 의장 연설(금요일)을 앞두고 고금리 장기화 가능성을 점검. 10년물 금리 4.34%로 상승, 시장은 금리인하 기대와 소폭 추가 인상 확률(11월 10~13%)을 함께 반영 중. 중립금리 상승 가능성(AI 투자, 청정에너지 보조금 등)과 강한 성장률(애틀랜타 연은 GDP나우 약 6%)을 언급. 진행자는 파월이 로드맵을 제시할 가능성과 실업률 상승 여부를 관건으로 봄. 테슬라 실적 후 주가 하락 등 단기 매매 관점도 언급.
다듬은 글
well it's time to brace for impact because big things are happening this week and no I'm not talking about the earthquake that shook me out of my seat yesterday it was a 5.1 I got an alert on my Android almost before the earthquake even hit and then all of a sudden it's like boom whoa what was that oh it's an earthquake oh okay Ellen that's kind of cool actually uh anyway it was quite shocking uh much more shocking than hurricane or tropical storm Hillary has been for us uh but then again Baja California got the most of it so uh our heart goes out to the rebuilding they're going to have to do over there with that crazy flooding they're getting but we actually have to brace for impact here is of course what happens this Friday which if you've been here long enough you already know what happens on Fridays yes Fridays at 705 Pacific Time or 1005 eastern time that's when drum Powell will be speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium there are a lot of other things that happen there but nobody really cares everybody's gonna care about Jerome Powell and Nick T the little bird who provides the leaks of what the Federal Reserve is thinking about before the Federal Reserve actually says it to sort of massage markets has given us a little bit of a heads up of potentially what to expect now before we look at exactly that it is worth noting that the 10-year treasury right now is up like 9.1 basis points it's absolutely nuts that the 10-year trash right now is sitting at 4.34 but then again if you watch my video from two days ago this is not a terrible surprise and might explain why markets are slightly green at the same time as the 10-year treasury is at this level because again people are moving money into money markets why bother being exposed to the risk of treasuries when you could get the same yield on a money market which is basically where your money goes to sit in the reverse repo facility and if that's offering higher yields and treasuries why bother investing in treasury so maybe Bill Ackman at least in the short term was on to something here now remember I'm a big fan of looking at my portfolio from two lenses number one what is my long-term game plan and how do changes in monetary policy affect my long-term game plan like growth stocks and energy are they still going to be a play if we're truly in higher for longer and are we going to be in higher for longer it's the worst thing to hear if your bull is higher for longer however in the short term we know they're Hedges we can play after all after Tesla earnings we knew it was bad news just type into Google meet Kevin Tesla Bull bad news in short term and sure enough the stock trades down like 25 I mean that's that's okay there's short-term trading and we can take advantage of that just make sure you pay attention to volatility a lot of people get the direction right but screw up volatility and if you don't know anything about historic volatility courses link down below but you already know that okay so let's talk about what Nick T just talked about so why the era of historic low interest rates could be over this is not good okay I don't like hearing that I personally like thinking that hey you know when I look at the five-year break evens inflation is looking pretty stable to me I'd like these break evens to go down a little more here's the five-year break even as you can see it's kind of trended down over here on the right I'll hide myself for a moment it's Trend it down on the right okay it's not running away this is the five year forward which is if the last one is how much inflation is expected to be over the next five years 2.25 big deal then this is how much inflation is expected to be five years out and then five years forward and that's at like 2.34 big deal okay this is uh the uh expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates starting in March uh and getting a whole basis point down by uh December of 2024.
and then this yet still though is the fed's terminal rate we are approaching this higher terminal rate and starting to price in a little bit of maybe that one more rate hike at about 10 to 13 percent chance for November okay great again we don't want to hear that I mean we got so many Cuts priced in the last thing we need is yet another hike and remember what what matters now isn't hike or not it's how long bro and this is what we're really hoping for from Jerome Powell well unfortunately this is not a good bull piece this is a terrible actually this here talks about how what if the neutral rate of interest is higher see they write here economists and policy makers infer this it's this magic number the r naught the r star neutral rate whatever it's all the same crap reminds me a lot of covid and like the spread of covid whatever it's all fugazi anyway basically the idea is if borrowing spending are strong and inflation pressures are going up then you need to raise interest rates because the neutral level is higher than where we currently are so again inflation up spending up borrowing up raise rates inflation down borrowing and spending down lower rates okay but what about both is it possible that you could actually have a stronger economy and lower inflationary pressures that's my argument is that yes we can have a stronger economy and lower inflationary pressures now let's see what Nick T here ends up suggesting so Nick T goes on to say that hey there are potentially reasons to see higher for longer and that really maybe if we're still running at over a two percent GDP pace which we kind of are right now the Atlanta fed real now GDP puts us at like six percent annualized which is insane growth then as Barkin here says then we have to be higher potentially than what we thought now of course there's a risk of a monetary policy lag affecting us right and that's a problem so why could this be happening well maybe it's happening because of what I wrote is stemmies they say here an increased demand for savings and investments into clean energy I personally wrote stimi which is is hey chips act and uh inflation reduction act or basically massive stimulus checks still flowing into the market and we still haven't seen that from the point of view of earnings that like energy companies for example or chip companies but we'll see we've got Nvidia coming up but really these are expected to play out over the next couple years not over the next couple months these stemi checks anyway what do we have here is this idea that look it is possible though that you could end up having a more robust economy with productivity boosting Investments like artificial intelligence that end up pushing up the neutral rate in contrast to a slow population growth and an aging population that brings down productivity so in other words there is this reason to suggest hey like even though we think the population's Aging people are going to spend less what if Ai and retirees spending their savings actually pushes up the neutral rate that's entirely possible now Nick T doesn't really give us a conclusion here other than saying that Jay Powell has warned against setting policy based on estimates of the neutral which he compares to navigating Celestial Stars so basically it's impossible to figure it out but what does this mean for us well what this means is this Friday is going to be all about what is Jerome Powell saying about how long do we have to be hired we know that he believes if inflation expectations come down and the level of restrictiveness we need comes down we can lower rates but when is that going to be so what are we looking for this Friday hence does he care about the neutral rate if he cares about the neutral weight it's bad news how high for how long I don't think we're going to get a decision on November or September I think he'll punt that but he I think he'll be PR I think he will lay a road map like he did last year which last year's Jackson Hole tanked the market because he laid the road map that thinks that there was a lot more work to do well now it's been a year it's been an entire year so j-pow please give us a clear path of hey just give us something like as long as inflation comes in under three percent we want to see flexible average inflation targeting we're comfortable lowering rates because we don't want to see joblessness that's going to be the key is he going to want to see joblessness or is he okay with the economy running hotter because the economy is running hotter right now some sectors are weak like Freight but if he says that he needs the economy to weaken below GDP measures we have now whether it's fugazi or not we're in for a crop show and brace for impact so again if you need jobs joblessness to go up if he needs the economy to slow below two percent both of those are a problem they haven't happened yet and if he mentions the real rate those three things mean we're screwed
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