저자: Kevin · 외국인
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소프트웨어 섹터 급락은 Anthropic 플러그인 우려와 AI 버블 공포가 맞물린 결과로, 골드만삭스 소프트웨어 바스켓은 고점 대비 약 30% 하락했다. 공매도 잔고가 오히려 늘어 모멘텀 매도 성격이 강하다고 진단. 고용은 ADP 22K로 부진하고 미국채 2-10 스프레드 상승을 경기침체 신호로 언급하며 금리 인하 필요성을 시사. 오라클 데이터센터 대출 매각 및 OpenAI 펀딩 의존 구조를 불안 요인으로 지적. 본인은 과매도 종목에 약 2.2만 달러 매수했다고 밝히고, 장기적으로 소프트웨어 밸류에이션 매력을 언급하나 노동시장 우려로 신중한 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes. I had to put on the dragon chain mail armor because the stock market is dumping again. In fact, Goldman Sachs is saying part of the market has just had its worst day in five years. That's like going back to CO. And . not only what Anthropic just did to markets and to OpenAI, what's secretly going on at OpenAI, which is a little sussy about the money they're trying to raise, and then the really bizarre things going on at Oracle along with some other news, a little bit on SpaceX and what's going on geopolitically.
There is a lot going on and folks, we got to get right into it by first talking about this software basket that Goldman talks about. Now, it's interesting because it seems like people are kind of flocking to invest in diversified assets. We actually have seen uh over $8 million come into House Hack in just the last 30 days.
I think people are diversifying away from the craziness in the the stock market. They're like, "Hey, you know, maybe a real estate startup's a good way to do it that's private and not exposed to all this insanity." So, at least we're seeing uh inflows come in a lot for what that's worth. Tha. Every investment has risk.
But look at this. AI at risk had its worst day in nearly five years. $2 trillion of market cap lost. Third worst day on record ever for the Goldman Sachs software basket. With the software basket now entering bare market territory across the board down 30% from highs with exposure right now at just 4.2% a record low.
Its historic peak was actually 17.7% and we are now the most sold year-to- date on software. Now, some of this has to do with Anthropic. Anthropic has these new plugins that could do sort of ideally co-working with you. It's almost like they kind of took the whole like Claudebot thing which turned into Moltbot and are like, "Oh, we could just have a plug-in store that'll help people do journal entries or financial analysis or, you know, customer resource management." And so you're seeing stocks plummet like you know well CRM stocks you know customer resource management stocks and oh uh what happens to be one of those well Salesforce.
So you've seen a lot of a selloff over the last 24 hours in a lot of these. Now we've seen somewhat of a recovery for example Salesforce is actually green right now but if you zoom out you could see the absolute shellacking some of these companies have gotten. You can see Salesforce is sitting at a relative strength of just 23.
Look at another one. Into it is at a relative strength right now of what do we got here? I think we're somewhere down here in like the 24 range as well. There. Oh, get my mouse out of the way. There it is. 21.4. I mean, it's remarkable. So, you've really seen some real pressure and pain. And this has then led to the Q's selling off as well as technology is just indiscriminately being sold off.
But there's something weird going on and it has a lot to do with short sellers and well hedge funds really hedging their exposure to technology and potentially the whole AI bubble fear. The short selling is quite interesting. Look at this. Software selloff deepens. Short sellers cash in. Short sellers are currently up about $ 24 billion in profits.
Goldman Sachs software basket down 20%. Short sellers up. But look at the weird part. And this was reported by Bloomberg. Bloomberg put together an analysis on their this and they're like usually what happens is stocks like Microsoft behave like a reversal stock. Basically as the stock goes down you see short covering.
So you see short interest go down. I want you to think about that. So you know what maybe we'll just visualize it. I bought this because so many people had been asking me well so many of you all like the whiteboard. I I hadn't used a whiteboard in a while. You know I wrote this out. We talked about this on the live stream this morning a little bit.
Just a brief mention here, you know, uh we talked about how when stocks go down, the risk is the CEOs get unhappy uh because they're worried about losing their stockbased compensation. So, they start complaining and then they're like, "Well, what's the solution?" Like, you know, Service Now CEO is like, "Can we have our market cap back?" Like, who says that on an earnings call?
Begging for your market cap back. But anyway, you know, then what they think is like, "Oh, well, we just got to get our EPS up. How are we going to get our EPS up? Oh, we'll just fire some people, right?" Like that's that's always the concern. And today's ADP report wasn't great. It was driven by 74,000 job gains on the private sector in education and healthcare.
And that's problematic because if it weren't for that, I mean, we only had a 22,000 job gain report. 22K minus 74 would be 52,000. You know, market would be pricing in a recession at that level. Uh but right now we're we're being propped up basically. Uh anyh who, so um yeah, the ADP report, they also revised the last one down 4K.
And this Friday's jobs report, they're going to delay until February 11th. So that's uh what is that? It was supposed to come out this Wednesday. Uh sorry, this Wednesday. What am I smoking? It was supposed to come out this Friday and it's getting moved to next Wednesday. So next Wednesday morning we'll actually have the jobs report.
But anyway, so what I want to say is typically what Goldman Sachs is analyzing based on this right here and I just want to simplify it because I think it can be a little hard to visualize sometimes. So typically when the stock of a company like Microsoft goes down, usually what you'll find is you'll also find short interest at the company come down.
And the benefit of that is you go, "Oh, okay. I get it. the stock's going down, but you're slowly seeing people buy and the short sellers are getting out. That should suggest we're getting to like a slowdown and we could find a bottom and we could start recovering. But Goldman Sachs is saying this is not actually what's happening right now.
Stocks are going down and instead of short uh interest uh going down with it, you're actually seeing short interest going up. So in other words, the more the stock price goes down, the more people are jumping on the band bandwagon bandwagon, I should say, shorting, which is why they say here, this is kind of weird.
Now, what you're seeing is trading that makes Microsoft seem like it's a momentum driven distressed name with shorts increasing into weakness. That's unusual. Now, in fairness, this market has been heavily exposed to momentum. Uh like you know I I've been saying for a few days now like you got to start being careful.
The next leg that's going to start popping is going to be the um uh the the memory sector. You know a company like SanDisk and SanDisk for example today look at it it's down 15%. Now I've been fundamentally very optimistic about this business since like 200 something bucks. We've done a very deep dive fundamental analysis on the company and you know course members bought the stock after it.
It's like oh that's cool. So, I mean, those people are up a lot, but we've also been warning that, hey, we've gotten to this leg of momentum that's probably going to reverse. In fact, you didn't even have to be a course member. You could have gone to the uh daily wealth tab just a few days ago. Right here, right here.
Look at this. Uh, in the daily wealth tab, which is totally free. You just download the Meet Kevin app. Totally free. I wrote a concern. I fear the high rate vacuum cleaner is coming for people's money as it's been happening. Data center stocks way up, then they're down 30 to 50%. Crypto down 39%. This was two days ago.
It's down more than that now. And so is Tom Lee. He's down like 50%. Imagine getting 16 billion and being trusted as a financial adviser with $16 million or billion dollars, I'm sorry, and then losing nearly 50% of it in less than a year. Holy smokes, man. That is a special kind of Oh, man. Uh but anyway, uh critical minerals, you know, 40%.
What do we got here? Uh silver then goes all-time high. You know, silver was down like 40 30 to 40% in a day. You know, some of that had some technical explanations for it, but the point is people go to the next thing, memory stocks. And I wrote this, I wrote this two days ago. This isn't healthy. This is a sickness.
It's cheap mentality running from one part of the field to the other. Uh so that I think is what you're also now seeing in this this short sell argument where it's like uhoh this isn't good. But is it possible that there's a fundamental reason to see this short selling increase and these liquidation liquidations that you're seeing in crypto?
You know another half billion dollars gone over the last 24 hours in shorts that were liquidated possibly. There are two things it could be. One people are suggesting is maybe this has to do with Iran. So there are rumors right now that talks with Iran have collapsed and then there are rumors that came back that are like no they haven't actually collapsed.
And so part of me think makes me wonder like is this just going to be another buy the dip opportunity. Now, I sent an alert to course members this morning because I bought about $22,000 of a particular stock that I thought was substantially oversold uh and and I think fundamentally is heavily insulated from this artificial intelligence software blow up with, you know, Claude's uh co-pilot essentially or co-work.
Uh but remember, every shock we've had so far has been a buy the dip. you know, the Japanese carry trade, liberation day, the the Greenland drama, uh the uh Capix drama in late January, the silver crash, and you know, now we're on the software leg. So, it's kind of like you're just seeing this pain like the grim reaper we talked about yesterday hitting all these different doors, and they've a lot of these have been by the dips now.
Yeah, the 102 yield curve is going up and once you get to 1.25, you're probably in a recession. So, we're at that teeter totter where there are reasons to be concerned, probably reasons to cut rates, actually. Some people are asking, is it Iran? I don't think so. I think it has a lot to do with Oracle and a big nasty Oracle oopsy dupsy, which I'm going to talk about in just a moment.
But just to catch you up, uh the US shot down a Shahed 139 uh drone. Those are the unmanned uh vehicles that Iran uses to uh sell to Russia and manufacture to sell to Russia in uh and basically Russia to bomb uh Kiev and and other parts of the dawn boss uh and Ukraine with Iran uses little shipping routes to you know either build factories up in Russia itself or just ship uh these components up through the little rivers that lead up towards uh Russia.
But anyway, you know, there was essentially this Axios piece that argued the United States and Iran wanted to meet in Istanbul and everybody was ready to have a d uh, you know, bilateral meeting. It's actually multilateral because other countries will be there. Uh, and have a meeting to talk about nuclear issues.
And Iran said, "No, we don't want to talk about missiles. We only want to talk about nuclear weapons." So, the US wanted to talk about their missile defense systems and nuclear. Iran's like, "No, we'll only talk nuclear and we only want to talk in Oman." And uh originally there was an agreement, but then all of a sudden, this is the US story we're getting, is that Iran flip-flopped and demanded Oman, which the US said per a senior US official.
We told them it's this or nothing. And they said, "Okay, then nothing." So, we don't know if this is just like I mean, the Trump administration does this. He negotiates in public to make everybody panic that like, oh, it's falling apart. you know, they're gonna they're gonna strike soon. And really, it's just a way for Donald Trump to get the phone call from the Iranians to be like, "No, no, no.
We still want to talk." And then they quickly tweet like, "It's all okay. It's all just drama." I actually don't think it has anything to do with that as far as why the market is stumbling a little bit and people are getting concerned. Uh, in fairness, we've, you know, been somewhat trying to recover from some of the lows of the day, which is interesting because if you saw me in my live stream, I'm like, hey, we might recover over here.
We bought the dip like right over here. So, in terms of like intraday, I think we nailed uh the dip here. Remember at mekevin.com, you could always get those uh alerts when I send them out, when I trade or or whatever. But um if you jump into this right here, you'll find something really scary. Banks seek out new buyers for Oracle data center loans.
Now, maybe this is nothing, okay? But it sounds odd to me because what this sounds like is banks are trying to find insurance companies and private credit funds to invest tens of billions of dollars into Oracle data center loans, specifically $56 billion worth of loans. So, OpenAI wants more debt and Oracle wants more debt, but the banks are kind of tapped out.
Not only are they kind of tapped out, they're like, "We need to basically sell this to somebody else." And so, here's somebody who's a banker familiar with Oracle uh fundraising per the Financial Times that says, "We basically tapped every single project, finance, bank possible, and there are only so many banks.
Banks will have to offload that risk if they want to keep lending." Okay, fine. But the problem with that is if there's no more debt available, then the Ponzi slows down. Oracle can't feed uh uh Nvidia with chip purchases. Nvidia can't invest into OpenAI and then the whole cycle slows down, right? We're we're on ice with the H200 Nvidia sales to China.
So, that's no good for Nvidia, which is bad because it's a $4 trillion company. Uh it's been 2 months since Donald Trump approved the sales and the sales still aren't happening because you're still waiting for export licenses with the Commerce Department. Same thing that's happening with the UAE's 500, you know, whatever billion dollar investment that they want to help make into the United States.
That's been getting held up as well in the commerce department. Thanks, Howard Leutnik. Everything's just going a lot slower than expected. So, I don't actually know that Nvidia or the UAE are going to be able to help. So, now everybody's kind of pointing the finger and going, "Okay, well, maybe private credit can help." But then again, we look at this like I feel like on a daily basis, you need to look and zoom out at these Blue Owl private credit funds for example, you're down 50%.
You're doing worse than Tom Lee right now. And all of these Blue Owl funds, Owl, OBDC, F, all of them are are down 50%. And you got three different funds. Now, they don't have as much capital in them as uh you know, Tom Lee uh squandered on on Ethereum. uh or as you know the Ethereum bulls will say bought the dip on Ethereum on the the beautiful dip that keeps on giving.
Uh but anyway, you know, it's crazy. So uh if that's the case and banks are trying to offload debt to private credit, but private credit's like, "No thanks." Well, what's happening instead? Oh, well, apparently investment rating firms. The rating firms Oh, like in 2007 and 8, right? Well, apparently the rating firms are going to give these construction loans quote institutional level gradings or ratings institutional investment grade ratings.
That's the better phrase for data center construction loans. So loans that used to be considered risky, now the ratings agencies are like, "Don't worry guys, we got you." pop a stamp on it and go, you're good to put it into, you know, whatever your institutional money at whatever whatever operation you're running, like insurance companies or whatever.
And so now you have this potential new buyer for this debt. And this is where people think it's fine. We're going to be able to paper over this. And the way we're going to paper over this is uh not only are we going to be able to get more fundraising for OpenAI, but uh you know, people will stop being worried because more debt will be issued.
And I get it because the expectations are that this fund raise for OpenAI is going to come through very soon and and maybe socks will just recover on it. That's that's a big hope, right? Uh so if you think about what the latest fundraising rumors are right now, uh it looks like Amazon is in talks to fund raise with uh OpenAI to the tune of $20 billion.
problem is the information is reporting that Amazon only wants to fund raise that $20 billion if open AAI works on Amazon projects for you know Alexa uh you know their voice assistant I don't want to say it and screw your thing up sorry you know there as a thank you for not messing up your thing you could always go to house hack.com and evaluate if you want to invest into the business real estate back no debt in my opinion that means we've got low risk but hey you know every investment has risk so read the offering circuit Check out that 5% yield through conversion.
You can invest with a credit card. Um, wire. I prefer wire and a you don't need to take on debt. But anyway, uh, current fundraiser rumors are $20 billion from Amazon, $30 billion up to $30 billion from Nvidia, which is pretty impressive. $30 billion for SoftBank, and $10 billion for Microsoft, which is great, but it makes you wonder why is Amazon putting strings on the relationship?
You know, it to me it suggests if other businesses were climbing over each other to get access to OpenAI shares at this valuation, Amazon wouldn't be able to make these demands. So to me, this sounds like a contractor relationship/work agreement where they're kind of making an investment in exchange for something.
It's like I I mean obviously everybody makes investment because you want to make money, but it's almost like people are now able to make OpenAI bend over to get the money they know that OpenAI needs. It almost feels like they're sort of taking advantage of them a little bit. But then again, you know, it could be sort of risk aversion because Amazon doesn't want to see their stock go down either.
You know, unfortunately, on top of that, you've got A&Z economic research suggesting that so far we really have no evidence of a hiring recovery. A lot of people have been very excited that hiring is going to rebound, but we're at a 3-month moving average of just 29,000. That's not great. We've got excess supply emerging because of artificial intelligence.
We've got productivity growth because of AI. And obviously, you know, GDP is booming, but honestly, we probably need those rate cuts to keep going. And so, of course, this is where people are going, okay, well, where can you go flee to be safe because, you know, people are nervous about Oracle and the AI bubble and, you know, Oracle doesn't expect to be cash flow positive until 2030 and blah blah blah.
Well, some people are actually saying Apple, you know, Apple just had a nearly 7% a 6.9% year-over-year boost in app store spending, and they haven't blown money on this capex warfare like, you know, other companies like Microsoft, for example, or Amazon or Meta. And so, Amazon or Apple's actually doing very well right now because they're talking about essentially now license.
So, they've made an agreement to license Gemini for Siri. Uh oh, I said it. That's it. Now, you're going to have to not go to household.com. We have to undo that. You're going to meet Kevin.com instead. No, but but really this is very interesting because, you know, app store spending is up. And this comes despite the fact that Roblox, Discord, Fortnite, and other companies are are basically saying, "Hey, if you pay us outside of the App Store, uh, you know, you'll have a cheaper deal or whatever with this off app payment risk." People were always concerned this was going to cost a lot of money for Apple.
But so far, revenue is on net still up 7% year-over-year. So, it's not having this, you know, these court battles aren't having this massive effect that people thought they would on Apple's app store revenues. The whole thing is still moving up. Of course, that's where, you know, a lot of people are making fun of now this Elon Musk SpaceX thing uh about how you're taking this money losing company of XAI and trying to uh burn what is actually a very profitable business.
If you're doing 50% gross margins on rockets to space, dude, you have no competition. You know, there's a good oped this morning in the Financial Times. They're like, or it was Bloomberg, I don't know, but anyway, they're like, you have no competition at SpaceX. Why would you want to get into one of the most competitive places?
and and pull, you know, an open AI and do X AI versus anthropic versus deepseek versus Amazon versus Meta. Like, it's so saturated. You had the Apple and now you're trying to turn into the open AI. It's kind of interesting. So, you know, look, I bought the dip. Uh I I think, you know, what we saw earlier today was probably a little overdone when we were down like 2 and a half% on the cues.
And I mean so far it looks like that was the right move. This is obviously intraday so we don't know this software selloff. I mean 12% on Palanteer is massive. Uh could be a great buying opportunity for great companies that now have really cheap valuations that are in the software stack. I'm excited about that.
However, I'm also cautious about uh what's going on with uh with the labor market. And that's where when I open up my bearbull scale uh my bearbull scale is very clear. Uh, I'm at five. I went down to 55 because of Worsh, which was my worst case scenario, but I did take us down another 0.2 because of that ADP data.
But you can see I'm still in that mid-range. Uh, and you know, just for for the uh uh you know, the doubters. Look at the chart. This is sort of my chart since uh uh September. And uh you can kind of see where my head has been. I think it's useful to visualize. Uh, I was really hoping that we were not going to get wash.
So, I was a little bit blindsided by that, but that's where my head is. So, hopefully this adds a little bit of color to what's happening uh in the world today. If you found it helpful, follow me on Instagram. I post stories there pretty much every day. To download the Meet Kevin app, if you want to get the daily wealth, which is totally free, as well as my news uh posts that I put there, uh, totally free.
If you do join the Meet Kevin membership, obviously you get access to the stock tab, the daily alpha reports, the daily live streams, and all of the courses on building your wealth. And of course, you can check out House Hack as well at househack.com. Read the offering circular. Thanks. Thank you all so much. .
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