저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 조정은 있을 수 있으나 약세장은 아님. 내년 금리 안정 후 경기 가속 시 금리 상승 가능하나 혁신주 상관관계는 낮다고 주장. 세법 개정(상각 확대)으로 법인세 실효세율 하락, 실질 GDP 성장률 가속 전망. S&P 실적 14%·러셀2000 46% 성장, 85% 기업 어닝 서프라이즈. 혁신 플랫폼 중심 집중 투자 유지, 셧다운 장기화 우려는 낮게 봄.
다듬은 글
There is so much fear out there. This is the opposite of the tech and telecom bubble. That's why this is sustainable. This is the proverbial wall of worry. Those are the strongest bull markets. They climb a wall of worry and they broaden out over time and that's what's happening now. The markets are getting it.
That's what's happening with the equity markets. They are sniffing out some real success stories here. Cathie begins by addressing a question that's on everyone's mind. Is a market correction coming? Her answer, yes, possibly, but no, not a bear market. She draws a clear line between the two. Corrections, she says, are healthy.
They're short-term adjustments that reset expectations, not long-term reversals of trend. According to her, a correction could come next year as interest rates stabilize and economic activity accelerate. Do you see a downturn, a market, a major, serious market correction when you look at valuations Do you see one near term?
So, there's a difference between a correction and a bear market. Absolutely, we can see corrections and I can see a reason for a correction next year. If we are right and these five innovation platforms are moving us into a productivity-driven boom in economic activity. If we're right, what will also happen next year?
Interest rates will stop going down at some point because a boom means activity is very, very strong. That may shake some investors up. They got a taste of this, more than a taste, it was a punch in the mouth in '22. Interest rates went up and innovation-based strategies crashed. Any long duration asset, including long-term bonds, went through a horrible time.
So, some people may, in that transition from falling interest rates to rising interest rates next year, they may get worried. But uh I've been through many cycles. I can tell you that innovation and interest rates are not inversely correlated. They were in '22 and that's because of the shock. But interest rates in 2017 and '18 went up.
They went up at a measured pace and innovation-based strategies absolutely soared. Do you worry about the long-term Look, this is a This is how long you know What's the weather like today type of question, but do you worry about the long-term fiscal health when you've got growing deficits in the largest economy for the foreseeable future?
So, I started my career uh during Reagan's early years and this was the story back then. This is deja vu for me. And I remember as a very impressionable young person in the business uh this fight and the right answer was get the economy growing faster, much faster than it has been growing with productivity as the engine.
I think that uh we're in the same story, but it will be turbocharged because uh the seeds that were planted by that the Reagan revolution they've been germinating for 25, 30 years. Now they're beginning to flourish. So, I think the real GDP growth rates are going to be astonishing. If we're right, if we're right, real GDP growth, which globally, which has averaged 3% for the last 125 years is going to accelerate to more than twice that during the next 5 years.
And yet, there is so much fear out there. This is the opposite of the tech and telecom bubble. That's why this is sustainable. This is the proverbial wall of worry. Those are the strongest bull markets. They climb a wall of worry and they broaden out over time and that's what's happening now. I'll tell you in in 2022, we were in a bear market and we were moving we were concentrating our portfolio towards our highest conviction names, which is what we do during a bear market.
Uh and hedge funds were betting against us and it worked. It worked, but I think what you're saying is, yes, that was a very painful year. But what we concentrated into is working beautifully now. Which is? Well, all we're focused on uh is technologically enabled uh disruptive innovation uh that is going to cut across sectors.
So, the main five innovation platforms are , and multiomic sequencing. Uh those are the five platforms and there are 15 different technologies involved in them. Do you spend much time concerned at the perceived and real battle between, say, government and central bank we've got at the moment in the US.
The administration and Fed. Or is it just something that Well, I think one of one of Most people understand that dynamic, but what they do not understand, if they're thinking about fiscal policy and what the administration is doing most people are thinking about tariffs. That's grabbing the headlines.
Uh I I think President Trump is a master of distraction. So, I do. I do. Uh so, we have tariffs in the headlines every day around the world. I just took a trip throughout Asia, US, and Europe. Tariffs grabbing the headlines. What did not grab the headlines? What did not grab the headlines and what is astonishing uh that this administration got through in OB3, the one big beautiful bill uh was a major change in corporate tax policy.
Major changes in depreciation schedules that are taking the effective corporate tax rate in the United States down from the low 20s to roughly 10%. The lowest in the world. Uh and and and just to give you a sense, this has never happened before. We've never seen uh depreciation of man-manufacturing structures in the first year of service.
100% in the first year of service. Normally, that's over 30 to 40 years. These companies are going to be seeing massive tax refunds that they can reinvest. Finally, listening to you, I mean, I I I don't I don't want to say you're an optimist. You're a realist. Yes. But you're a realist with an optimistic outlook, which is very different to what I'm hearing in a lot of people in your position who are basically saying, not the sky is falling, but we're going to be dodging.
Yeah. No, no, I we couldn't be more excited and one of the reasons is what you just said. What's happening now and the results of it, whether it's from a policy-making point of view or the the evolution of the technology is going to be so surprisingly good that the markets are getting it. That's what's happening with the equity markets.
They are sniffing out some real success stories here. Cathie also touches on investor psychology, particularly among the younger generation that never lived through the dot-com crash or the 2008 crisis. She believes many newer investors assume markets always rise because they've mostly known bull cycles.
But the seasoned professionals who survived multiple downturns are now teaching the next wave of investors inside major firms. Retail investors, she says, play a much bigger role now thanks to accessibility and transparency. That's one of the reasons she founded ARK Invest to bring retail investors along for the innovation journey, sharing research openly and democratizing access to transformative investment opportunities.
I was around in that tech and telecom bubble and what we saw back then were investors and speculators throwing money at anything. Uh and you might say that the same is happening today. Uh but if you take out and and you just said this, actually. If you take out the movers and shakers, the rest of the market is trying to figure out, okay, who's going to win?
There are some obvious winners now. Many of Well, in the private markets, of course, Nvidia, the chip players, TSM. Uh in the private world, the large language models, OpenAI and Anthropic, xAI. Gemini is Google, so that's in the public markets. Those are Those are very obvious. What we're seeing today that we did not see back then is founders leaving their companies and lured by Mark Zuckerberg to become part of an AI machine over there.
That didn't happen back then. In essence, these companies that those founders are leaving, they're not going to be the winners. They're not and and you know that because their founders have left. There still will be a very nasty taste if this market cracks. There are I guess what I'm saying is technology meets market forces.
Yes. Again. Yes. And there's a new generation of people that don't remember dot-com boom and bust in the '90s. They don't necessarily remember 2008 and they do think that it's going to keep rising or they they haven't experienced the force of a market correction. Well, I think that the most seasoned, shall I say, seasoned investors from 25 years ago, meaning 25 years ago they were in their 20s and 30s, they are they are toward the ends of their careers now.
They are teaching Right. They are teaching the younger people in those firms, maybe not as much in retail, which may be your point here. It's retail that is real. But because but re- but retail is more important now because retail is more accessible. Absolutely. And that's one of the reasons I founded Arc, right?
Was to be very transparent, to bring these young people along on the journey. What I think is different this time and it's very dangerous to say that. I really understand that having been an investor for many years. In the late '90s, the technologies were not ready, costs were way too high. And I'm going to give you a few examples.
We did not get the cloud until 2006. We did not get the first real breakthrough in AI until deep learning in 2012. The second one, even more important that has created generative AI, that's transformer architecture. That took place in 2017. So, we weren't ready for prime time back then. The seeds had been planted.
Investors were throwing money at seeds and a a lot of those never blossomed, right? Some did. As of October 31, the price of Granny Shots ETF was 25.99, net asset value of 25.97, and total assets of 3.65 billion dollars. Over the past week, Granny Shots has gained 1% compared to a 0.72% return for the S&P or 30 basis points of relative outperformance.
Year-to-date, Granny Shots is up 30% compared to 17 and 1/2% for the S&P 500 or relative outperformance of 1,260 basis points. Um and in terms of monthly fund flows, for the month of October, Granny Shots gained 570 million dollars and as you can see, it's the second best month since the launch of the Granny Shots ETF in November of last year.
I want to talk about third quarter earning season. Um this week um there are going to be 11 of the 39 Granny Shots reporting results. Probably the most notable of that this week will be Palantir on Monday after market, but markets are also going to closely watch Robinhood. And so far, 80% of Granny Shots who've reported, that's 21 companies, have been beating results.
Now, here's a snapshot of what to expect for this week. Um as you can see, marked in red are the Granny Shots ETFs. And that gets us to earning season. We're in the last of the heavy weeks for earnings. 136 companies report this week and after that, earnings really taper off. And so far, of the 318 companies that have reported, 85% are beating results, which is a good earning season.
And in terms of bottom line earnings growth, the S&P earnings growth is going to come in at around 14% and for the Russell 2000, 46%. And in the S&P, five of the 11 companies are reporting double-digit earnings growth led by technology. In the Russell 2000 small cap, seven of 11 sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth.
And a final point on macro is the shutdown. We're we're you know, entering 26 days now. Um and uh as you can see, only 15% see a chance that this shutdown is resolved this week. 47% see it being resolved um after November 16. So again, an extended shutdown. Cathie also offers a quick macro update. As of late October, earning season remains strong with 85% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations at earnings growth of 14% in the S&P and 46% in the Russell 2000.
Technology is leading the pack, a clear signal that innovation-driven companies are driving corporate profitability even as the US government faces an extended budget standoff, the corporate sector continues to show resilience. Another sign in her view that innovation is overpowering the macro noise.
While the world fixates on short-term fear, inflation, deficits, and interest rates, she's looking at something much larger.
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