🔴 URGENT: Everyone Who Owns Bitcoin Needs To Hear This" - Tom Lee

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3분기 실적시즌 초반 84% 기업이 예상 상회(평균 6.2%), S&P 이익성장 9.3%·소형주 43% 전망으로 실적은 양호. 심리지표는 약세지만 연초 대비 S&P 13% 상승으로 '가장 미움받는 V자 반등'이라 평가. 신용 우려(사모신용·First Brands)는 있으나 하이일드 스프레드는 과도하지 않음. 비트코인 도미넌스는 60% 돌파 후 추가 상승 가능성을 언급, 알트코인은 비트코인 대비 장기 약세로 타이밍이 중요하며 10월 단기 도미넌스 상승, 11월 중 전체 비트 페어 반등 가능성 언급. 장기적으로 비트코인 중심 유동성 쏠림을 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. The average reading this year has been minus 11.7. So investors have been bearish all year. Okay, it's similar to sentiment in 2022. But here's why it matters. We're down double digits on average for sentiment. The last three times we had negative sentiment was 1990, 2008, and 2022. Those are all bare market years.

02. investors are acting like we're in a bare market, yet the market's up 13% year to date. So, um, I would call that the most hated V-shaped rally. Tom Lee begins by noting that we're officially entering the heart of Q3 earnings season, and the numbers are impressive. So far, 84% of companies are beating earnings expectations by an average of 6.2%.

03. That's not just good, it's one of the strongest starts we've seen in years. Last week, the focus was squarely on the big banks. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, City, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley. All six delivered solid results, but Tom points out that two of them, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, are what he calls granny shots, meaning reliable blue chip performers that represent market stability.

04. . With regard to macro, I want to talk about third quarter earning earning season among other things. Um we are uh entering the heart of earning season and so far 84% of companies are beating by 6.2%. So it's a good earning season so far. Uh last week it was really the banks that mattered the most. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman City, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

05. And they all beat solidly. Two of these happen to be granny shots. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. JP Morgan said the consumer and small business remain resilient based on our data. While we're closely watching the potential potentially softening labor market, our credit metrics and our including early stage delinquencies well our credit metrics including early stage delinquencies remain stable and slightly better than expected.

06. That's a good sign. Uh overall companies are expected to grow earnings 9.3% in the S&P and 43% in the small cap space. So small cap earnings growth is strong. That's a good sign to me. But it's really this week from October 20th, which is this week through November 3rd, is the heart of earning season.

07. You can see how many companies report each of those three weeks. Uh now, not everything's been great on earnings. I'd say that private credit has been what people have raised their eyebrows about. Tryolor Auto and First Brands group, well, First Brands looks like an outright fraud situation. Um, but if you're worried about credit, just keep an eye on high yield, which has actually been spreads widened, but it's hardly alarming.

08. It's lower than it was in April of this past year during the tariff heights. And if you look over the last 10 years, you can see 347 basis points wide is is a pretty mild reaction in Hyel. So, it's not alarming. For the week coming ahead, uh there is a lot of macro, but I'd say the market's going to focus on Friday's September core CPI.

09. Now, that's going to happen even with the government shutdown. So, they made an exception here to report that number. And then there's some important granny earnings this coming week. GE, Netflix, Lamb Research, Tesla, and GE Venova. Um, and this is mapped out here. So far, only four of the granny shots have reported, but it's uh, you know, been good numbers so far.

10. And let's talk about the government shutdown. We're in the 16th day. Um, in 2018, it was 35 days, so it's been 7 years since we've had a shutdown, but I'm sure this is going to potentially run longer. Poly Market uh flipped on October 9th and now expects a very extended shutdown. In fact, 81% odds this will be more than 30 days, which means it'll go past November 1.

11. And uh I want to talk about sentiment too because the latest AI reading came out at - 12.4. So there's more bearish than bulls. But here's the thing. The average reading this year has been - 11.7. So investors have been bearish all year. Okay? It's similar to sentiment in 2022. But here's why it matters.

12. We're down double digits on average for sentiment. The last three times we had negative sentiment was 1990, 2008, and 2022. Those are all bare market years. Investors are acting like we're in a bare market, yet the market's up 13% year to date. So, um, I would call that the most hated V-shaped rally.

13. And then as far as stock performance within the Granny portfolio, the top five performers this past week were KLA, Kenor, American Express, AMD, Lamb Research, and Broadcom. Most of these are AI semi-names. Um, and Amx had good earnings. The bottom five were S&P Global, Axon, Micro Strategy, Robin Hood, and Arista Networks.

14. One of the things that we've been talking about for, you know, the last month or so is this final rotation, right? And and we said many times that we would likely find a low for Bitcoin dominance in the month of September, right? And you can see once again, a low was formed the week of September 8th.

15. Now, ever since then, I've had a lot of people reach out and they're like, "Well, when's it going to start?" like and I'm like guys, Bitcoin dominance has been green. This is now the sixth week in a row. It is happening. It's just not happening as quickly as some people want it to. Now, here's the thing, and I I will say this, and I I actually said this a few weeks ago as well.

16. When 60% is breached, it should skyrocket higher. Now, that actually happened a couple of weeks ago, right? We saw 60% get breached and it soared higher, right? It went way higher than a lot of people thought it was going to. And you know, a lot of the people that were convinced that we would not see 60%.

17. Watch that wick happen and then they think it's just a wick. I don't I I think Bitcoin dominance is showing you where it wants to go and then this is the process of people slowly getting the memo. Okay. So, it's happening, right? Like we're it's in the process of happening. It's just people aren't necessarily accepting that it's happening.

18. But the next time we breach 60%, I think we're going to see dominance move up quickly, just like it did. I think on this wick, people weren't really They weren't ready, right? They weren't ready to accept that that this might just be another higher low. And look guys, I'm not here to say that, you know, that it that it has to go to a new to a new high, but you have to be open-minded to it.

19. I mean, it it ultimately comes down to how low the ETH Bitcoin valuation goes. And I I said that back in in June and July, you know, and and and the idea is that alt Bitcoin pairs went lower. they put in lower lows, but because ETH Bitcoin is potentially putting in a higher low, it made it so that Bitcoin dominance was not at least yet able to put in a higher high.

20. So whether dominance is able to put in a higher high or not, which is distinct possibility that it could is ultimately going to depend on how low ETH goes against Bitcoin, but it still will likely be a higher low for this cycle. So, we have to remember that. And by the way, a lot of times when Bitcoin dominance does find tops, it'll then wick above them later on, right?

21. Like even in 2019, you sort of had a top and then a wick above it and then it and then it went through, right? And then this one, you had a top and then you wicked above it and then it went down. So, you have to be open-minded to the idea that dominance could run back up near the highs. You might not like it, right?

22. And you might take your anger out on me, but remember, I don't make the rules to this stuff, right? I just enforce them. And if it looks like dominance is going to go higher, I'm going to call it out. And that's what it looks like to me. He makes an important distinction about market timing. When you're investing in large cap equities or index funds, time in the market beats timing the market.

23. But in crypto, particularly altcoins, timing is everything. Altcoins are like penny stocks, illlquid, speculative, and highly cyclical. You can't hold them indefinitely, expecting Bitcoin-like performance. Many require a new alt season just to break even. A painful realization for many traders. Lee admits he made similar mistakes in earlier cycles.

24. The difference is that he learned from them. His goal now is to help new investors avoid repeating those same errors and to refocus attention on Bitcoin's long-term value. I need to say a couple of things as well. And you know, it it's just sort of me experiencing this for like the 30,000th time. And I'm I'm tired.

25. You know, frankly, I'm tired of it. And it goes something like this. All right? And and and tell me in the comments if you've heard this one before, right? Because I'm sure many of you have. And it gets old after a while. Basically, what it is is this. I will say Bitcoin dominance is going to go higher.

26. A lot of influencers will then come and say I'm wrong, right? And they'll be like, "No, he's wrong. He's a toxic Bitcoin maxi. There's no way. He's just he's not opening his mind to what's possible." You know, all this stuff, right? And they don't want to hear it. But then when you get these wicks up and you see dominance shoot higher and you watch all Bitcoin pairs go lower just like they've done all cycle, right?

27. Anytime you see that happen, it's like I can't call them out on it because when I do, they get so emotional, right, guys? If you can't handle the emotions of the cryptoverse, then get out of the kitchen, right? Hey, get out of the kitchen. If you are going to run a YouTube channel where you spend years promoting and shilling micro caps, altcoins, essentially penny stocks, if you're going to spend years doing that and telling people why dominance is not going to go up, but then you're going to cry out like you're the victim when it turns out you're wrong, that's not a good thing to do either, you know.

28. And I wanted to go on this little tie raid a couple of weeks ago, but I felt like it wasn't the right time. But maybe now people can at least see where I'm coming from, right? Because it goes it goes exactly like that where I will tell people for years that alts are going to bleed against Bitcoin for years and people don't believe it.

29. And anytime they put in a lower low, I'll point it out and I'll be like, "Look guys, this is the proof that what I've been saying is correct, right? This is the proof." But then all I hear from these guys is you're not being, you know, you're not being sensitive. If you're not being, you know, this is guys, again, if you are going to shill these things for years, these micro caps, these penny stocks, equivalent, penny stock equivalents, you're going to shill it.

30. Don't play the victim when it doesn't work out, right? And don't get mad at the people that got it right just because you lost some money. It's not fair. If you if they're going to, and this is what they do, if they're going to tell people to have fun staying poor when their altcoins are going up, they have no right to play the victim when they're dropping.

31. And I just I've seen it happen so many times. And at some point I I feel like the industry, the market participants have to say, you know what, enough's enough. And let's focus how we can build the cryptoverse in a positive way. And that does not include just feeling bad for the guys that keep getting wrecked on altcoins every every few months, right?

32. The market's trying to teach them a lesson and they're just not willing to accept it. Okay. So, I'm going to keep doing my thing and I'm sure they're going to keep doing their thing, but I don't I don't you know, I honestly resent the whole thing of of you know, this is me saying this is what's going to happen.

33. They're all like, "No, he's wrong." And then when it happens, they just get emotional about it. Again, if you can't handle the emotions, if you can't handle the market, if you cannot handle the cryptoverse, then get out of the kitchen, right? That's the way it works. So, at this point, you know, all Bitcoin pairs did go to a new low.

34. They went to 0 29. And I'll be the first to say, right, like I I would guess there's going to be some type of bounce by all Bitcoin pairs sometime in November. But in the short term, for the rest of October, I think you have to have your Bitcoin maxi hat on because dominance should go higher. And again, timing is important with this stuff.

35. And and you know, a lot of people don't think it is. Look, if you're going to go buy low expense ratio index funds in the S&P, timing is not important, right? In that case, time in the market beats timing the market. Cuz there's not a single soul on this planet that can consistently time the market.

36. Not you, not me, and none of the none of the gurus on Twitter. No one can. But if you're investing in altcoins, if you're investing in the again, the equivalent of penny stocks, timing is everything, right? Because you can't, you know, you you can't just sit here for years and and say that like altcoins are going to outperform Bitcoin and that's why you justify buying alts over Bitcoin just to watch them bleed time and time again, right?

37. That makes no sense because again at this point a lot of people require an alt season just to get to break even on their Satoshi valuation, right? Just to get to break even. And that was a mistake I made in a prior cycle. It's not like I'm better than the guys that are going through it now. The only difference between me and them is I went through that process in a prior cycle and they're now going through it in this cycle.

38. My hope was to make it so that some people did not have to experience the same pain that I felt in the altcoin market in prior cycles and to help them focus on what truly matters and that's Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the reason that we're here. If Bitcoin goes to zero, altcoins are going to zero. But Bitcoin could survive and eventually go to a million dollars, right, in maybe a decade or two.

39. But that doesn't mean the altcoin market will, and it doesn't mean that everyone else's altcoin will, although I'm sure yours will be just fine. So, you have to remember that at the end of the day, the common ground that we can all find is Bitcoin. There's an infinite number of altcoins and there will be continue to be an infinite number of altcoins minted every single day, right?

40. We cannot keep up with them. It's just going to infinity. There's only one Bitcoin and that is why liquidity has and will continue to flow to the king. Lee reminds viewers of one timeless truth. Bitcoin is the reason we're all here. If Bitcoin goes to zero, every altcoin goes to zero with it. But Bitcoin can survive and potentially thrive even if every altcoin disappears.

41. There's only one Bitcoin. It's finite. It's decentralized. It's the most secure monetary network in existence. Altcoins, on the other hand, are infinite. New ones are created every day. And as long as that continues, liquidity will flow to scarcity. And scarcity means Bitcoin.