저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 금리 고점 장기화 국면에서 벤처 투자 환경은 어렵지만 고금리기에 기술기업이 오히려 더 좋은 사업을 만든다는 주장. [시장 구조] 벤처 자산군의 약 10%만 실질 수익을 내고 나머지 90%는 자금을 낭비하는 상태라고 주장. DPI는 30년 평균 1.7배 수준이지만 TVPI(평가이익 기준 수치) 같은 장부상 수치를 내세워 투자자를 오도해 왔다고 비판. [거시 전망] 금리를 두고 좌우 양 꼬리 위험이 모두 커져 있다고 평가. 하방 리스크는 S&P 이익 180~185 수준에서 주가가 급락하는 경우, 상방 리스크는 연준이 비둘기파로 돌아서 주가가 3200~3300까지 오르는 경우. 다만 연준이 완화하면 인플레가 재발해 터미널 금리가 4~5%에 고착될 가능성이 있어 어느 쪽이든 자산 재평가가 불가피하다는 입장. 그래서 보수적 포지션을 유지한다고 언급. [고금리기 기업 질] 고금리 환경에서는 무위험 금리(2년물, T-bill, 레포)가 매력적이라 벤처 자금 공급이 줄고, 이로 인해 기업이 자금 낭비 없이 더 나은 경영을 하게 된다고 주장. 최근 14~15년간 이런 정화 사이클이 없었고 기술기업 내부가 '썩어가고 있다'고 평가. [밸류에이션 조정] 고평가 상태의 상장 예정 기업들이 가치 재조정(down round)을 거부하고 있으며, 시장 가격에 맞춰 컨버터블로 시간을 끄는 사례 6~7건을 거론. 스트라이프의 50% 다운라운드 가능성, 클라나의 사례를 들며 세쿼이아는 규율을 지키지만 다른 벤처펀드들은 TVPI 하락을 외면해 '투자 불가능한' 상태라고 평가. [초기 투자 전략] 역사적으로 실질 수익은 초기 벤처에서 나왔고, 과거 60년 데이터상 금리 상승기에 초기 벤처의 수익 기회가 가장 컸다고 주장. 그로이스(성장투자)는 현재 기본값이 '안 한다'이며 초기 단계 딜을 더 늘린다는 방침. [에너지·AI] 태양광·풍력의 발전 원가가 사실상 0에 수렴해 가스보다 싸졌고, 주택 단위 자가발전·저장으로 1700여 유틸리티의 독점을 무너뜨릴 수 있다고 주장. AI 전용 칩셋 비용도 급격히 하락해 단백질 상호작용 연산, 자율주행 등 과거 불가능했던 문제를 풀 수 있게 됐다고 언급. [포트폴리오] 변동성 속에서는 국채 등 안정 자산과 고위험 자산을 양끝에 두는 바벨 전략이 유효하다고 제시. (영상에 구체적 종목 가격 목표나 상장사 방향 발언은 없음. 본 채널 설명란 없음)
다듬은 글
in our industry you know there's a couple of dirty little secrets or like the dirty soft underbelly one of them is that only 10 of all of the firms in our asset class actually generate real returns ten percent which means ninety percent are basically flounding around burning money the other thing is is that we have always consistently generated a high single digit DPI so like 1.7 x is like the 30-year average on distributions yet we are the worst offender when it comes to showing people like you guys paper markups or tvpi hapatia is a Silicon Valley venture capital investor who has made himself into a tech Firebrand here's a proponent of spaces a kind of investment vehicle that allows private companies to go public with less scrutiny from the SEC palehapatia is a sponsor and investor in half a dozen spacs companies they have merged with include Virgin Galactic and clover Health he is also the founder of Social Capital Adventure Capital firm and he started in 2011.
The Firm faced a wave of defections in 2018. according to chamf many people believe that high interest rates are bad for the economy as they lead to a decrease in investment and growth however this is not always the case in fact technology businesses have historically been more successful during periods of high interest rates the reason for this counter-intuitive trend is that fewer investors are willing to invest in the riskier asset classes he further explains why this is so in the video as we would see unfortunately many Tech firms are currently stagnating as they rely on successive amounts of capital to fund their operations and ultimately prevent real returns for their stakeholders in 2018 when Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell raised interest rates from zero there was a drop in share prices but this subsided once the perceived chance of recession receded since then money is flooded into riskier assets such as technology stocks cryptocurrencies and spacs driving prices up Beyond sustainable levels and creating an environment right for a correction if not reset soon in this video chamf will be giving a macro outlook on the current market conditions and his view on Tech Investments and we'll also be talking about Industries is bullish on and looking for investment opportunities as we go into the video please ensure you give us a like subscribe and drop your comments below we're dealing with two things one is just that if you really think about it if I had said 13 months ago that we would be sitting here today and the FED would have hiked you know 500 basis points in nine months plus or minus you would have thought it was crazy so we're sort of like coming into this phase of sobriety trying to figure out how do we all do our jobs differently and what does it mean for the Investments that we've already put in the ground and for me personally I think it really the setup is that it amplifies tail risk and so right now I'm sort of somewhat quite cautious because I think there's a left tail risk and I think Mike Wilson is here but you know if you listen to Mike who's been really right so far you know the risk is that the s p earnings are sort of with the one handle 180 185 and all of a sudden the s p is you know 3 200 3300 but then there's this right tail risk which is that the FED becomes dovish everybody capitulates because it looks like things are slowing down and now all of a sudden though you will have to deal with terminal rates that are going to be four to five percent on a more consistent basis because if he lets off the gas now then inflation kind of sticks around yeah so both roads lead to repriced assets just in very different past dependency and those risks to me are a little um heightened and so I've tried to kind of be quite conservative and just you know be down the Fairway there's a lot to learn when you look at the past which is that a high rate environment at least in the area in which I operate which is you know technology businesses we've actually counter-intuitively built better businesses during periods of high rates and the reason is because there are fewer allocators that come to our part of the market because you can find better risk-free rates as you said the two-year you know even down to T bills and repo quite honestly um so that's one thing and then the second thing is that in the absence of this surface of capital it forces each individual company to frankly just be better managed because there's less money and so we become as a ecosystem more intolerant of excess and all of that just creates better run businesses and so we haven't had that cycle for probably 14 or 15 years and so we desperately need it because if you look inside of a lot of technology companies they're unfortunately rotting from the inside out right they've had a period where they've been able to raise successive amounts of capital to fund evaluation creep that frankly won't translate it into what the actual money is you're going to get back in our industry you know there's a couple of dirty little secrets or like the dirty soft underbelly one of them is that only 10 of all of the firms in our asset class actually generate real returns ten percent which means ninety percent are basically flounding around burning money the other thing is is that we have always consistently generated a high single digit DPI so like 1.7 x is like the 30-year average on distributions yet we are the worst offender when it comes to showing people like you guys paper markups or tvpi so there is this dance that that this industry has been able to play because rates have been at zero so as investors the asset class I think is very challenged in order to generate real returns now the companies that we funded have as a result of all this excess Capital been more poorly run than otherwise and so we need to course correct so we need these rates to be sustained for you know five six seven years frankly hopefully in order to really flush it through the system as interest rates continue to rise it becomes more and more difficult for startups and early stage companies to access Capital this is especially true in today's economy where valuations are high but profits are not yet established as a result main great opportunities will go untap as startup teams that would be perfect for this period are passed over in favor of those with higher valuations but no profits chemath further commented that the energy industry is undergoing a major shift with potential consequences from millions of Americans this shift is being driven by advances in technology specifically the application of artificial intelligence Ai and machine learning together these technologies have the potential to break away from monopolistic behavior and Regulatory capture two long-standing problems in the energy sector he gives a more detailed description of growth Investments and the role of the new major shift in energy and computing power in the current economy let us now listen to what he has to say yeah I think the problem with growth investing just to give you some anecdotal data like at the end of last year I looked at six seven converts and these were all extremely well-known companies that all of you would know on a first name basis and they all came to me trying to raise convert and I said well here's the real market clearing price of these companies and none of them took my money and instead they did a convert to basically deflect and kick the can down the road on valuation so we're on that point in the market where all the boards of these private companies refuse to budge on valuation and the reason is because it impacts meaningfully their DPI or their tvpis that they've given to LPS it's a very difficult part of the private markets right now to invest in because you will not be allowed to do true price Discovery because nobody wants to take the real hits the best companies will do it I mean I think you saw today that stripe may take a 50 down round that's probably the best technology company in Silicon Valley proper being built right now so they'll do it clarna did it in fact it's so interesting that it's all you know the through line there is Sequoia which is an extremely disciplined and incredible organization so they're able to enforce that discipline but other companies other Venture funds they don't want to look at the tvpi decay and so it's uninvestable quite honestly on the other end early stage venture has always been where the Real gross dollar profits are made and if you overlay that with a rising rate environment and you regress that back 30 or 40 years in fact we did it looking back 60 years the most incredible opportunities to make money are actually when rates are rising in early stage Venture that's just a historical artifact if you look at public companies in size so you know we said very explicitly okay no more growth the default answer right now is going to be no we're not going to touch it but we're going to continue to sort of over index into early stage and do as many good deals as we can see and you know let the chips fall where they may you know right now today you can generate using solar and wind energy that's effectively approaching zero and it's cheaper than that gas and not it's not just at the residential level but it's also at the base load power generation level and so as a totality you have the ability for 100 million U.S homeowners to effectively displace 1700 utilities and all of that monopolistic behavior in regulatory capture and so if all of a sudden you have free abundant energy that you can collect from the sky and store in your garage and direct anywhere you want you all of a sudden have the ability to solve problems via brute force that before you couldn't because there were boundaries of energy separately we have found a way to transition away Moore's Law away from CPUs into these application specific chipsets now that operate in a realm of machine learning and AI and the cost of that is effectively going to zero because these reference designs now are so well understood the software is so powerful now and when you multiply these two things together if you wanted to Brute Force reverse engineer every single theoretical protein that binds to every other protein in your body what was a multi-billion dollar compute and energy problem is now effectively a few tens of millions of dollars if you actually wanted an infrastructure that could actually detect in real time how to give true autonomous self-driving make extremely complicated decisions and stop on a dime those were compute problems that you can now basically make render Cost Less and so when those two things come together it's one of these really transformational moments in our society where you can go after some very big problems that we didn't think were tractable before and so I'm very excited about that intersection and finding companies that play on those themes it has been a tumultuous time for the markets lately with tremendous volatility and Widespread Panic for investors and entrepreneurs it is a time of sober reflection amplifying tail risk is Paramount and caution should be exercised when making Investments however there are still opportunities to make gains in the market if you're willing to take some risks chamath advises that the barbell approach with conservative yet volatile Investments on either end of the spectrum can be a Savvy way to invest Capital right now by combining stable Investments like government bonds with more risky but potentially rewarding Investments like stocks are able to mitigate some of the risks associated with Market volatility additionally by keeping your portfolio balanced across these different types of assets you're able to avoid overexposure or under investment in any one area what do you think of chemath's Outlook in financial investment advice let us know what you think in the comments 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