저자: MeekKevin · 외국인
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2020 대선 여론조사 예측(Economist 등)이 크게 빗나갔다고 지적. 네바다·위스콘신 등 개표 쟁점과 소송 가능성을 설명. 상원 구도는 공화 51 대 민주 49로 교착 전망, 교착은 대기업 변화 적어 주식에 긍정적이라 주장. 연준 완화 기대와 코로나 확진 급증 우려를 언급하며 당장 과도한 매수는 신중하고 현금 확보 후 조정 시 투자 권고.
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hey everyone meek kevin here the last 24 hours have been absolute insanity the polls were a disaster as usual and now we're left wondering what is gonna happen what does it even mean for stocks what does it mean for stimulus can we just get everything kind of put together in one video and well that's what this is but first let me start by saying economist you all really screwed up y'all really screwed up big this time now the economist is uh well they're a news publication they've got a really good magazine i enjoy the economist magazine but these were some of their predictions and i just want to point these out look at this florida right here 80 percent chance it would go to biden this was a trump state by a pretty substantial margin the new york times shows that florida went to trump with 51.2 percent verse 47.8 for biden but look at this 95 chance that biden gets pennsylvania when we actually look at pennsylvania trump's leading by over three percent 3.1 to be exact nevada ended up being the biggest competitive state along with wisconsin and miss michigan all three of these were supposed to be 95 by 98 wisconsin 98 michigan uh and and they're not even over here in this competitive box uh and and when they put all of this stuff together with their projections look at this they put this map together and said that by election day trump only had a three percent chance of victory and it's basically been just declining during the entire pandemic and i wonder like is is this somebody just at a computer going i kind of feel a little worse about trump today or is there actually science in this stuff because it seems to be wrong now for the second election cycle in a row it's really frustrating now i hate to bag on it but when you say look 95 to 98 three or four times in a row and you're wrong on all those states maybe there's a problem with the collection methods here but here's the thing biden was just called for michigan and wisconsin trump's got lawsuits over here in wisconsin already going because there's only a margin of 21 000 ballots over here in michigan we've got a little bit of a larger spread of about 120 000 ballots so we're not too worried about even talking about michigan right now the focus is on wisconsin although you can bet they're gonna be lawsuits in all of these but the bigger one actually might end up being nevada or as some say nevada i never know which one's right so i say both anyway over here we've got joe biden in the lead by 8 000 ballots and the next dump is thursday at 12 p.m they're just gonna go here's the new data that is it could who wins this election could literally come down to nevada which which is incredible because you definitely have californian flight going over to uh to this state as well uh and over here it's presumed that a lot of californians helped push arizona to a blue state uh well potential victory here though there's still you know trump and trump's campaign staff still believes they have a shot of getting arizona so this is what we've got right now and trump and his legal team have also been basically begging for additional campaign funding after the election now to fund the legal battles coming up and this has now led biden's campaign staff to start begging for more funding to fund the legal battles coming up like i thought campaign fundraising would be over after election day no now we're going to fight over what is considered a legal and legitimate ballot this is why we also have in wisconsin donald trump requesting a an entire ballot recount which that's not even possible until december 1st the last time we did that was in 2016 and after a recount trump got an extra 300 votes which were 21 000 votes apart here approximately just a little over 20k and so this is where we really have to start wondering okay what is a legal and legitimate ballot and how is this going to affect stocks or stimulus and our lives going forward well look legal and legitimate ballots according to the trump staff are ballots that are not duplicate votes not spoiled aka they're not damaged like burned or spilled coffee and you can't read them anymore or there are those that came in potentially after the deadline and see the deadline aspect is actually what might end up being the most tricky see what happens when you take mail like a check to pay your taxes and you take that piece of mail and you throw it in the mailbox before your mail person comes to collect the mail and you got to pay your bills on let's say april 15th for taxes well the post office collects that takes it back to their sorting machine it gets stamped as being postmarked april 15th and the us government says hey as long as your check was postmarked by that date it's considered to be in the possession of the federal government therefore it is a timely payment in fact a lot of things go by the postmark date we do that in real estate as well if you mail your rent on the first it's technically still on time even if it comes on the second or third and so the big question now though is does that apply to balance now joe biden and democrats say the answer is yes donald trump says the answer is no and this might be because well we already know that mail and ballots tend to skew towards the favor of democrats and right now every vote matters joe biden says he's confident that he will win and seeks to unify the country he calls it after all the united states of america and he reiterated that except we seem more divided now than we ever have before so what does all this drama actually mean for us as individuals on a broader scheme it definitely seems very dramatic but what does it mean to us well the bigger factor might not necessarily be who's president and might actually be more focused on the senate right now we've got senate races in michigan alaska georgia north carolina and a special election in georgia that are being hotly fought tooth and nail to get the final vote counts in well this is where the senate comes in we have five seats left to determine the balance of power in the senate right now we're 48 for republicans and 47 for democrats with five seats the balance of power could sway however right now it seems that we're most likely to end up with a situation where we've got 51 republicans and 49 democrats this could change we might even end up at a 50 50 margin but either way we slice it we're probably destined for at least another two years of gridlock in congress and what does this mean for us well little expectations of anything getting done in congress would be a good way to start but when it comes to stocks actually probably more relative com see when it comes to stocks the stock market doesn't like it when there's a lot of change and there's one thing that doesn't happen a lot of in congress when there's gridlock and that's change think about it if biden wins corporate tax rates probably can't get through because the senate's controlled by republicans regular tax hikes financial transactions tax hikes other large changes to health care benefits or programs probably won't be able to get through without bipartisan support so this means congress is likely going to sit in a stalemate for the next two years and like i said ironically this is good for stocks because there's less risk there's more danger when one party controls everything and slam dunks policies that could be really detrimental to certain industries and then tomorrow we are widely expecting the federal reserve to come out at the end of their meeting again and basically just tell us they will be as accommodative as they need to to our recovery aka we will rely on the fed for as much trickle-down support as possible which basically means if you own real estate and stocks you're doing good and if you don't you screwed which really sucks because well congress sucks but i'm not sure that i would jump into the insane greenery of the market today see outside of all of this election drama the washington post just reported that coveted cases just came in at over 102 000 cases for november 4th that'll be the first time ever we broke 100 000 cases in one day and if this is the beginning of the exponential growth curve that dr scott godly the former fda commissioner warns us about we have some concerns the stock market might actually get a whole lot more nervous all over again in probably a few weeks so in my opinion buckle down right now put some cash aside if you went shopping before the election congratulations you did what i did and what a lot of us on the channel did went shopping while fear was high right now things are ironically even though we don't have an answer kind of chill and the stock market's loving it now when it comes to stimulus hopefully hopefully we'll see a compromise before the end of the year we've got a big fiscal cliff coming with the budget running out december 11th so maybe we'll see this sort of dual package get negotiated either separately or together but for right now let's focus on building up enough cash so that way we can invest in stocks the next time we get some blood in the markets so to speak and in the meantime let's see what happens to nevada tomorrow at 12 p.m it'll be interesting to see that's going to be a big move and with ballots only 8 000 apart if biden gets a slam dunk lead tomorrow we might end up with a president biden subject of course to the lawsuits which could drag on four months if donald trump takes over well then all eyes will probably fall back on the rest of the states is he going to get georgia for sure is he going to get pennsylvania for sure we'll find out soon
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