저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 크립토 겨울은 아니고 '고통스러운 침체(storm)' 국면이라 본다. 금 시가총액(약 35조 달러)이 Magnificent Seven 수준에 근접했다는 점을 강조하나, 역사적으로 금이 하루 9% 이상 급락한 세 번은 모두 고점이었으므로 금은 이미 정점일 수 있다고 경고한다. 비트코인은 과거 중간선거 해 패턴(2월 약세, 3월 초 반등, 4~5월 하락)과 대체로 일치하며, 실현가격·균형가격 하회 시 역사적으로 바닥 신호라고 말한다. 2분기·3분기에 70% 하락하면 중립~낙관, 50% 하락에 그치면 연말까지 약세로 보겠다는 시나리오를 제시한다. 주식은 대부분 장기적으로 0을 향한다는 통계도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
I don't believe we're in a crypto winter right now because if you look at Ethereum, daily transaction activity is actually growing parabolically due to tokenization. And you know, Wall Street is starting to build its infrastructure based on cryptocurrencies. So in a way, I think the cryptosphere is suffering because gold is performing so well that it has sucked the risk appetite out of everything else, and there is no leverage in cryptocurrencies.
And people who want to engage in day trading and high-frequency trading now stand to gain significantly more from buying gold and silver. Gold has quietly become one of the most powerful tools of the last quarter century. Over a 25-year period, owning gold has actually outperformed owning the S&P 500 index.
This statistic alone fundamentally changes the narrative. Gold is no longer just a hedging instrument. This is the dominant asset for long-term investing. The world's supply of gold in circulation is approximately 7 billion ounces. Multiply that by the current price and you get a network value of around $35 trillion.
That makes gold almost as big as the market capitalization of the S&P 500's "Magnificent Seven," which together are approaching $40 trillion. In other words, gold is no longer a niche asset for hedging risks. It has almost reached the size of the most dominant stock complex in the world. But Lee identifies three critical “ black swan” risks to the gold scarcity narrative.
Please take a moment notifications so you don't miss similar videos. You can also check out our other videos about cryptocurrencies and the digital asset space in general, and leave makes a huge contribution to the growth of your channel. Thank you, enjoy watching. Well, gold is showing great results.
I mean, if you look at a 25- year period, owning gold was more profitable than owning the S&P index. Gold was a serious investment for boomers, while Generation X was more likely to invest in hedge funds and alternative assets . So it is millennials and Generation Z who are actively buying gold now.
Therefore, it is quite logical that we are seeing a generational shift in trading strategies. Gold has become a serious player. You know, the network value of gold is 35 trillion. S&P excluding the "Magnificent Seven" is 40 trillion. So, today the gold market is almost as big as the stock market. This is amazing.
Yes. So, is this the market value of existing gold reserves? Yes. Yes, this is gold in circulation. Gold in circulation. So, there are 7 billion ounces of gold. Of course. Multiply that by about 5,000—that's 35 trillion. But the idea was that gold is rare, and there are several “black swan” risks for gold.
First, there is a million times more gold underground than above ground today. So if gold gets too expensive, literally the "Magnificent Seven" will just go into gold mining, right? Because you can just as easily dig for gold. It is more valuable than anything else. Second, gold has an extraterrestrial origin .
I learned about this at the Perth Mint, one of the few places that assays and manufactures gold bars. So SpaceX could send a mission to Mars and stumble upon a golden asteroid. And Elon Musk, if he... well, this is an international level. I mean, he would own all the gold. It would become the new central bank, and this gold could weigh, you know, a hundred billion ounces.
Ahem. What about the risk that it could be manufactured? That's right. And the third is, of course, alchemy. Because look, if someone invented a way to split an atom off of lead to turn it into gold, they wouldn't tell anyone. And there will be a huge supply of gold, because all the lead seems to disappear and become gold.
Therefore. So gold is, you know, a great investment, like at 9,000, gold is outperforming the stock market, like... So is there a price at which it stops being a good investment? Because we heard, you know, gold at 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 even this year. Yes. So I again , we studied it. We analyzed 100 years of the ratio of gold to stock market capitalization.
It can reach 150%. But then everything. After that, gold reaches its peak. Gold fell 9% in one day on January 30. We looked back: there were only three other times when gold fell more than 9% in a single day. And all three times it meant a peak for gold. So I don't know. I mean, if history is any guide.
Yes. But if history is any guide, it has probably already peaked . Bitcoin has fallen about 40% from its highs, almost 50%. This appears to be the seventh time it has fallen 50% from a recent or local high . However, three of these cases were real crypto winters, you know, like bear markets that resulted in a 90% drop from the peak.
So I think if someone has been in the crypt for a long time like us, we're already used to the pain, you know, from these kinds of slumps. Um, but there's a difference, because the crypt deviates from its narrative because it evolves. It is becoming more of an institutional asset, and now there are questions about quantum technologies.
Quantum technology is a real risk for Bitcoin in the sense that if quantum advantage becomes commercial, and China may have already figured it out, about a quarter of Bitcoin wallets could be stolen because Satoshi did not update his wallets. But I think it's probably more of a cryptostorm than a cryptowinter.
Storm. Yes. So we are in a phase of painful subsidence . This was partly triggered on October 10th because that day there was a price shock due to Trump's proposal to impose new tariffs on China, which caused a deleveraging cascade in the crypto industry greater than the one during the FTX collapse in November 2022.
November 2022 effectively marked the end of that " bear" market, and it was then that transactional activity began to recover. The reason I don't believe we are in a cryptowinter is because if you look at Ethereum, daily transaction activity is actually growing parabolically due to tokenization. And, you know, Wall Street is starting to build its infrastructure on crypto.
So in a way, I think crypto is suffering because gold has performed so well, which has taken the risk appetite away from everything else, and there is no leverage in crypto. And people who want to do intraday trading and high-frequency trading are now really making money buying gold and silver. What we see in crypto today is, of course, the traditional struggle, where Wall Street players are trying to hijack the narrative around cryptocurrencies and the Clarity Act to tilt things in their favor and try to stifle new entrants.
But that's an old story; it's a battle we've seen with the advent of every new technology. But this is detrimental to public blockchains because Wall Street wants to control the narrative . I think prediction markets are actually very useful because it's the closest thing we have to a crystal ball. So, at Funstrat, we use aggregated data, and as many of you know, in 2024 we used Polymarket to track the election more than Nate Silver's predictions, and Polymarket correctly guessed the results in all 50 states.
So the prediction markets have generally been correct, but I think it's a form of gambling for users. So I think there are social implications here. Prediction markets and cryptocurrencies, however, are beginning to truly help deconstruct the very concept of a stock. I think this is a great innovation for the financial industry , because in the future, for example, instead of just buying Tesla shares for $400, they could be divided into 36 or 20 separate streams of income for each future year, and if they are tokenized, someone can buy those streams of income.
Management understands how the market values their earnings, but for you it's like a lottery ticket because if they exceed expectations, it becomes a profitable option. You can make significantly more money than just buying the entire company. So I think we're in for a lot of innovation. But of course, this innovation and speculation creates winners and losers, but that's what capitalism is, right?
Since 1974, 40,000 companies have gone public or been spun off into separate entities. And 90% fell in price by more than 50%. And of those that fell by 50%, approximately 90% depreciated to zero. In other words, most stocks are actually heading towards zero. Lee cites Bitcoin’s performance during US midterm election years .
Historically: weakness until February, rebound in early March, sell-off in April-May. The current dynamics are consistent with historical averages within one standard deviation. In other words, this cycle is not abnormal. He emphasizes the need to avoid deterministic thinking. Markets are not required to follow past patterns, but probabilities do matter.
Lee outlines hypothetical scenarios. If Bitcoin falls 70% in the second or third quarter, be neutral or optimistic. If the drop is only 50% by the second or third quarters, be bearish until the end of the year . If trading goes below the realized price and the balanced price in the summer, this is a historically “ bullish” signal, he monitors on-chain metrics such as the profit and loss ratio.
Bear markets usually bottom when these lines cross decisively . So what if this week passes with weakness and we see new strengthening by March? I don't know how low he can fall. Maybe it will sink a little and then go up again . Maybe it will drop to the 200- day moving average and then bounce back up.
And then another local maximum in March, followed by another drop. I see this development of events, with a possible return to the bottom, and then a fall below the balance price and the realized price, perhaps as early as this summer. And if that happens before May, then perhaps the bear market won't last as long.
But if the minimum is in May , we will still have to wait until October to confirm it. You know, I think if Bitcoin were to trade below its realized and book value in the summer, I would probably become optimistic and hope for the best, because historically that's when the cycle bottoms out . We can also look at Bitcoin's annualized returns in the intervening years.
These types of graphs are a great reason why we all suffer from the classic bear blues. If we look at Bitcoin's year-to-date returns in the intervening years and compare it to the average of the previous intervening years within one standard deviation, we are where we have always been at this time. In fact, we are even just below one standard deviation from the annual low of year-to-date returns .
So, this cycle is not yet anomalous in terms of subsidence in the interim year. It generally repeats the trajectory of previous interim years. You see we usually drop in February, then gain some strength by early March, and then sell off again in April and May. This is a fairly typical model for Bitcoin.
If this is how it goes: weakness in late February, growth in early March, and then a big drop in April-May, then the depth of this drop will determine whether it was a true bottom. These are my thoughts on the market. I don't think it's worth getting hung up on the idea that everything should go according to the old script just because it was that way before.
We'll see where we end up in May, and then we can adjust our expectations if necessary. If, if Bitcoin was already trading below one standard deviation, let's say it would be trading two standard deviations below the average annual ROI in May. If it's trading this low, then maybe you're leaning towards a bottom sooner rather than later, but we're not at that point yet.
I don't know where Bitcoin will be in April or May. I just think we have a little more to go to get there. We are showing weakness now. It will probably last a little longer. Perhaps some strengthening in early March, followed by another decline in April and May. And I think that's exactly how it will be .
And then we'll see if that's enough. This may be enough. It might not be necessary to have a final drop in the fourth quarter if there wasn't all that euphoria that happened at the peak. Maybe we can skip it this time. But in the short term, I would say yes. So I'll express my thoughts somehow. So, in the fourth quarter, in the fourth quarter, it's easy to be overly determined, determined, um, I misspelled that .
Deterministically, uh, " bearishly." Good. In the first quarter, minus 50%. Still bearish mood until May, but not as strong. Good. In the second, third quarter, let's say if Bitcoin fell by 70%, then it is not deterministically not " bearish", neutral, inclined to optimism, if minus 70%. Good. If, on the other hand, in the second and third quarters we still only have minus 50%, then we are inclined to a " bearish" mood in the fourth quarter.
That's pretty much what I'm thinking. So I just want people to be aware of some of the things that are likely to happen. Another chart that can be useful is the supply of Bitcoin, which is in profit or loss. And just understanding that cycles usually end, or bear market lows usually come after these two lines cross.
They have n't crossed paths yet. My guess is that they will probably cross paths at some point. What could cause Bitcoin to fall so low? You know, people always ask, "Why does it have to fall?" There is no reason why it should, but if the stock market starts to show any weakness, that would be a great reason why it could go lower and possibly knock Bitcoin out of these support levels higher.
So, these are my thoughts. I know many people have classic bear market symptoms, but remember that in the long run, bull markets make you money. Bear markets make you rich. It is bear markets that allow you to buy cheaper in order to then benefit from the " bull" market. If you wait for a bull market to enter, you get less enjoyment out of it.
Lee concludes with a powerful maxim. Bull markets bring profits. Bear markets make you rich. Why? Because bear markets create asymmetric entry points. Investors who enter only during confirmed bullish trends are paying too much. Those who disciplinedly wait out the downturn often experience exponential growth later.
He does not deny short-term losses. The weakness is likely to continue until the end of winter. Perhaps a strengthening in early March, then a new decline in April-May, but despair is not a strategy. Markets are evolutionary systems. Gold can peak on a wave of over- enthusiasm. The crypto market may be experiencing structural turbulence, not a crash.
Innovation is accelerated by tokenization and prediction markets. Capital flows, but it does not disappear. The main thing is flexibility, not fatalism. History guides. She doesn't dictate.
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